thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Values Are Coming Down Because They Have To

It’ Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Housing inventory in the Austin area has reached the highest level since September 2018. Spyglass Realty CEO Ryan Rodenbeck said the market has changed so much in the last couple of months that some of his clients have also found themselves paying significantly more for a home. ‘We had a buyer that was under contract for $530,000 on a home,’ Rodenbeck said. ‘And they [the builder] listed the same floor plan right across the street from the client for $479,000.’ A different client discovered the same. For them, it was a $150,000 difference.”

“Roger Chappell, an associate broker with Coldwell Banker Realty in Austin, said it has taken his last two listings about 30 to 45 days to go under contract. As for the data in the Realtor.com survey, Chappell said: ‘What I have seen is about a 10-12% drop in prices from the peak.’ ‘I think part of the issue lies in sellers’ expectations,’ Chappell said. ‘We all got spoiled with the low interest rates, unbelievably high number of offers and extremely low inventory. Sellers expect to sell in 12 minutes at the same or higher prices than their neighbors did.'”

“In recent months, Ja’Marquis Perkins has watched house prices come down to earth. As a real estate agent in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, he’s begun advising buyers to look for deals where they might once have faced bidding wars. He recently helped a first-time buyer close on a two-bedroom house for $185,000, which was below the listing price. ‘It’s definitely starting to slow down. Homes are going for less than what owners had asked,’ he says.”

“Middle Tennessee’s housing market continued to tilt toward buyers in last month after being a strong seller’s market for much of the past two years. The Greater Nashville Realtor’s Assoc. says there were nearly 10,000 homes on the market across the mid-state during September. Compare that to April when less than half that number of homes were listed for sale. The average closing price for a single-family home stood at $475,000 in September, a drop of $23,000 since May.”

“Brooklyn’s high-end real estate market is beginning to show cracks as volatility on Wall Street and rising closing costs have put buyers on the sidelines. Meanwhile, sales in Long Island City, Queens, plummeted 51.8% in the third quarter, according to a report from Serhant. In addition, the median price dropped 6.8% to $881,500, the data showed. ‘To put it bluntly, Long Island City did not have a great third quarter,’ wrote Garrett Derderian, director of market intelligence at Serhant.”

“A few months ago, buyers would do just about anything to snag a home. Now, they’re reneging on deals at the highest rate seen in years. The trend is even worse in some cities. Jacksonville, Florida, is seeing more than 26% of its home sales fall through, and Las Vegas, Atlanta, Orlando and Fort Lauderdale aren’t far behind. ‘Buyers just aren’t willing to deal with issues right now,’ says Phillip Salem, a real estate agent with Compass in New York.”

“Others, particularly luxury buyers, though, were counting on those investment accounts to fund a more immediate home purchase. Real estate broker Baron Hanson recently had clients in this boat. ‘They had lost so much money in the market that their $2 million Florida vacation home budget vanished into thin air,’ says Hanson, who works with Coldwell Banker in Stuart, Florida. The pair have since backed off buying a new property entirely.”

“A home inside Granville Estates is located next to Copper River Country Club and offers nice views of the golf course. It’s just one of several houses which are part of the company’s year-end sales event. ‘These are some of the homes that were canceled, escrow through other folks or some of our spec inventory that is unsold,’ says CEO Darius Assemi. He hopes an a la carte menu of incentives might attract a few buyers to new neighborhoods being built in both Fresno and in Clovis. ‘We have an array of items to choose from,’ he said.”

“For the first time in a decade, home prices in Southern California are definitively falling. After 10 years of largely uninterrupted gains, home values have turned negative, the result of rising mortgage rates that have squashed demand and caused sales to plummet. Few, if any, major real estate experts predict Southern California home prices will fall like they did during the Great Recession. But values are coming down in many corners of the country, because they have to, according to economists. In individual counties, price declines from the peak range from a 3.6% drop in Ventura County to a 6.7% decrease in Los Angeles County, according to Zillow.”

“According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, prices in L.A. County are already down 3% from September 2021. Rick Palacios Jr., research director with the consulting firm, said one reason for greater drops in L.A. County could be the sagging stock market has hammered luxury sales in the more rarefied realms of the region, as people saw the money they planned to use for their down payments disappear. Although that’s not Great Recession level, ‘it’s nothing to sneeze at,’ he said. ‘These will probably be the most significant price declines seen outside from maybe a couple other instances in history.'”

“Welcome to the fall market that wasn’t. Lest there be any confusion, while history has shown that Toronto real estate enjoys a unique ability to barrel through most obstacles, this rising rate environment has proven to be largely impenetrable. Sales have dropped off a cliff, prices are drifting down, and sentiment among buyers and sellers has never been worse. It’s pretty rough out there. It turns out that buyers weren’t off on vacation or enjoying a summer free from COVID restrictions instead of real estate. Labour Day didn’t bring them back. They remain sitting on the sidelines, if not out of the game entirely.”

“Sellers are fighting tooth and nail against the idea that February numbers are a distant memory while once eager buyers, staring down the barrel of more rate hikes, aren’t willing to jump back in. The average price of a home in Toronto has now fallen to $1.09 million in September off of February’s peak of $1.33 million. But the stalemate can’t go on forever. At some point, probably sooner than later given the likelihood of further rate increases, some of the sellers who have been banking on their ability to ride this out will have no choice but to blink. And the buyers who have been waiting for blood in the water may decide it’s finally their time.”

“Finance commentator Scott Pape has warned Australian house prices are falling ‘at one of the fastest rates on record’. Consecutive monthly falls in housing values between April and August knocked more than $114,000 off the median house price in Sydney – equivalent to $927 a day. While in Melbourne, the median house price has dropped 4.4 per cent between April and August – equivalent to $51,000, or $415 a day. With further RBA interest rate rises expected, some economists forecast up to 25 per cent could be knocked of the median house price once the hikes take full effect. ‘I wouldn’t be surprised if house prices eventually gave up the 30 per cent gains they made during the Covid period,’ Mr Pape wrote.”

“‘Interest rate rises, credit constraints, the increasing cost of living – it’s a sure-fire recipe for declining home values. Plus there are still new houses coming onto the market up and down the country, putting further downward pressure on prices almost everywhere,’ QV General Manager David Nagel said. Nagel said this will be ‘worrying news’ for Kiwis around New Zealand who are looking to sell their homes and for those who purchased at the peak of the market. Large volumes of listings are giving purchasers plenty of choices and negotiating power, but it certainly looks as though sellers may still be in for a rough ride yet.”

“American businessman Brody Shores’ furniture business in China grew on a model that leaned heavily on the promise of an enduring property boom and homebuyers desperate for fully furnished new apartments. Soon after launching in 2019, his company began selling directly to developers who decked out their units with furniture, a marketing trick that sold flats like hotcakes. Then came the pandemic and a property crisis, and with them, clear evidence of the limits of the debt-fuelled, investment-driven model that had propelled China’s economy and businesses like Shores.”

“‘If people aren’t buying houses, then no one really cares if they’re getting the furniture included for free or not,’ Shores said.”

“In the decade to 2020, China consumed almost 25 times more cement than the United States. By 2021, state-owned China State Railway Group had 5.92 trillion yuan (US$825.66 billion) in liabilities, more than the GDP of Saudi Arabia. In the property market, which now accounts for a quarter of China’s economic activity, businesses took more risks and banks offered mortgages before flats were built, leading to massive oversupply. One business owner Reuters spoke to on the condition of anonymity said his firm at its peak made 150 million yuan a year supplying promotional materials to Evergrande. He now lives in a dormitory and earns 3,000 yuan a month working in a screw factory.”

“Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing, said while many economies have followed an investment-driven development model, China’s reliance on it was extreme. ‘You cannot invest 40-45 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) forever. China has to prepare itself for many, many years of much slower but sustainable growth,’ Pettis said. ‘Those who expect the Chinese economy to be the largest in the world by 2035 will almost certainly be disappointed.'”

“This week, mortgage rates in the United States reached a 16-year high in response to rising interest rates. ‘It’s like a standoff between buyers and sellers. Buyers can’t afford higher prices and sellers don’t want to sell for lower prices,’ said Daryl Fairweather, an economist at Redfin. Things may look bleak in the midst of recession fears, high inflation and high interest rates, but the numbers suggest this is not the Great Recession. And, just like every market, what goes up must come down. Eventually. ‘The good news is that if you can’t afford a home now, keep your eye on the market,’ Fairweather said. ‘You might be able to afford it in a couple of months.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 112 Comments

  2. ‘For the first time in a decade, home prices in Southern California are definitively falling‘

    Not true. Fell in 2014 and 2018.

    ‘These will probably be the most significant price declines seen outside from maybe a couple other instances in history’

    Rick is a short sighted perma bear.

  3. ‘just like every market, what goes up must come down. Eventually. ‘The good news is that if you can’t afford a home now, keep your eye on the market…You might be able to afford it in a couple of months’

    That’s the spirit Daryl, crater, let it burn!

  5. Rural areas that don’t want to have an alien collectivist ideology imposed on them by the globalists and their Democrat-Bolshevik Quislings need to break away from their Marxist overlords and the attendant corruption, criminality, and parasitism that are features of misrule by the Dimms.

    Oregonians force vote to SECEDE from the woke state and become part of Idaho: Two counties are set to vote on measure – after nine backed it – due to defund the police, CRT in schools and bail laws

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11313419/Rural-Oregon-conservatives-fed-liberal-politics-want-secede-state.html

    1. One of the reasons we moved from coastal Oregon to Arizona is the uber-liberal progressive politics, both state and local.

    2. I hope Idaho doesn’t invade those two counties now and say they’re part of its sovereign territory.

      2. I heard they were originally part of Idaho until 100 years ago and all still speak Idahoan. They’ll be OK.

  6. ‘As a real estate agent in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, he’s begun advising buyers to look for deals where they might once have faced bidding wars’

    That crazy minor respiratory illness boom sure crept into every sh$t hole in the country.

    1. That crazy minor respiratory illness boom sure crept into every sh$t hole in the country.

      Citizen Jones! The COVID-19 pandemic was a deadly threat that fully justified the draconian measures the tireless heroes at the CDC directed to prevent the certain calamity that would otherwise have overtaken us! Trivializing this deadly virus or putting your fellow citizens at risk by refusing to take the vaccine is evidence of BadThink that will be duly noted on your dossier when the Comrades of Proven Worth (D) are calculating your social credit score and gulag-readiness.

      Please seek forgiveness from St. Greta and wear your mask whenever you emerge from out from under your bed. If you see the black Suburbans parked outside your house, pay no heed – they are there for your protection. We will be mailing you a Ukrainian flag to display as a token of your contrition for spreading disinformation. Forward!

    1. Wut? Are you disputing the fact that a corrupt, senile, 47-year crony capitalist career politician and his intensely unpopular running mate who is incapable of stringing together a coherent sentence failed to get 81 million votes? This is my scandalized look.

      I wonder when the Black Maria vans are going to start rolling on the “election deniers.”

    2. Washington Post Editorial Board — The Jan. 6 hearings are over. Time to vote (10/13/2022):

      “Donald Trump dodged accountability for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol when Senate Republicans acquitted him the following month in his second impeachment trial. Prosecuting the former president raises complex questions of law — and about whether doing so would ultimately set back the causes of democracy and justice more than advance them. That is a tough decision facing Attorney General Merrick Garland and the Justice Department.

      But ordinary Americans can and should hold Mr. Trump and his enablers accountable. Many voters might feel as though Jan. 6 is ancient history and that inflation and crime are more pressing concerns. But with more than half of this year’s Republican nominees for the House, Senate and key statewide offices denying or questioning the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, this midterm contest, in which control of the House and Senate is at stake, is also about democracy itself. What’s more, the current Congress still has work to do. The vulnerabilities in the electoral system that Mr. Trump attempted to exploit must be closed — starting with a rewrite of the Electoral Count Act.”

      https://archive.ph/DbQHR

      1. Time to vote?

        Here’s a 2022 midterm election guide of candidates to vote for.

        New York Times — How Election Lies Took Over the Republican Ticket Nationwide (10/13/2022):

        “They include candidates for the U.S. House and Senate, and the state offices of governor, secretary of state and attorney general — many with clear shots to victory, and some without a chance. They are united by at least one issue: They have all expressed doubt about the legitimacy of the 2020 election. And they are the new normal of the Republican Party.

        More than 370 people — a vast majority of Republicans running for these offices in November — have questioned and, at times, outright denied the results of the 2020 election despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, according to a monthslong New York Times investigation. These candidates represent a sentiment that is spreading in the Republican Party, rupturing a bedrock principle of democracy: that voters decide elections and candidates accept results.

        This skepticism has stretched into political races in every state and is still frequently being raised as a campaign issue, The Times has found, nearly two years after Donald J. Trump was defeated. Hundreds of these candidates are favored to win their races.”

        https://archive.ph/YoiiI

        Joe Biden will never be the legitimately elected president of the United States. Merrick Garland does not have the legitimate authority to prosecute anything or anybody.

        This isn’t your country, globalist sh*tbags.

        1. These candidates represent a sentiment that is spreading in the Republican Party, rupturing a bedrock principle of democracy: that voters decide elections and candidates accept results.

          Democrat-Bolsheviks have fought tooth and nail against the introduction of any and all measures intended to safeguard the integrity of the electoral process and to prevent non-citizens from voting. Pretty much tells all, right?

      2. You’re irrelevant, WaPo. Just like Pravda became in the waning days of your beloved Soviet Union when even the dullest of the sheeple could see right through all the lies and propaganda they were being fed.

      3. Republican nominees for the House, Senate and key statewide offices denying or questioning the outcome of the 2020 presidential election

        Don’t they know this is only allowed in a Democracy? Or a the very least if you’re a Democrat?

      4. If the Republicans take the house, I think they re-start the January 6 hearings. Only this time was a whole new set of witnesses. Don’t get to comfy in that ambassador’s mansion, Nancy.

  8. Any libtards attempting to flee the messes they created and resettle in red states or communities need to be branded on the forehead with a hammer and sickle, then banished to the nearest Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned city or state to live out their progressive ideals.

    REVEALED: Nearly 8% of people living in San Francisco and Seattle plan to MOVE – the highest number of any other city in the US – as remote workers flee to the suburbs and Dem-led cities deal with skyrocketing crime and homelessness

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11314183/Nearly-8-people-living-San-Francisco-Seattle-plan-different-city.html

    1. I have friends in California that talk about moving away, but it’s still talk 30-yrs later. This is most likely the case everywhere. Most people seem to choose the boiling frog option rather than leave proximity to family. It’s likely a younger person thing, e.g., leaving for the military or peace corps. Once you’re married with kids your options are few.

      1. I have friends in California that talk about moving away, but it’s still talk 30-yrs later.

        I remember that. When we announced to our circle that we were leaving, most of them were stunned. People like to complain about how awful Clownifornia is, but most will put up with it.

        1. Out of all the places I’ve lived (San Diego, Orange County, Los Angeles, Boston, NYC) or considered living (Austin, San Francisco, Seattle, DC, MD, NJ, PA), I’m good with where I am.

      2. I’m young and left Urban California for a so-called ‘red-state’ with its priorities straights. Utah.

        Utah is Ontario Canada with a 5 month wait for basic medical services.

        Total clownshow. The entire Mountain West is trash. Jobs pay garbage and cost of living is on par with LA.

        I interviewed for jobs in Florida. They got pissy when I told them 80k is garbage for my position.

        Where to go?

        I recently moved to an East-of-Mississippi blue-hell-hole and found lower taxes, cheaper housing, higher wages, and better access to medical care.

        Boiling frog?

  9. The Comrades of Proven Worth (D) in our NEA indoctrination mills are tireless when it comes to promoting the globo-homo agenda instead of doing anything approximating their teaching duties.

    Woke Long Island teacher is forced to remove huge ‘Progress Pride flag’ from classroom after students reported her for making them uneasy and buying one twice the size of US Flag next to it

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11312559/Woke-Long-Island-teacher-forced-remove-huge-Progress-Pride-flag-classroom.html

  10. It’s going to be amusing watching these globalist stooges flail as the long-deferred financial reckoning day slouches closer. Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic isn’t going to fix this.

    Kwasi Kwarteng ‘faces being SACKED as Chancellor’ after dashing back from US for Budget crisis talks: Liz Truss will host press conference ALONE today ahead of expected U-turn over corporation tax as Tories warn she has just 17 DAYS to save her job

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11315441/Liz-Truss-prepares-U-turn-PM-host-press-conference-TODAY.html

    1. I don’t get it, raise corp taxes and raise your prices…..I’ve always been in favor of no corp tax on profits but then you don’t get any tax rebates or carry forward on losses either….. will put a lot of lawyers and accountants out of business. sorry Ben

      Truss made scrapping plans to up the rate from 19 per cent to 25 per cent – at a cost of £18billion – a central part of her leadership campaign and it was unveiled as a policy three weeks ago as a major growth lever.

      1. The UK is coasting on the fumes of its past greatness. Once the markets understand how f**ked they are, due to the blessings of globalist open borders and decades of being an oligarch looting colony and epicenter of global financial fraud, look out below.

        1. Back in the UUNET days of building clone pc(s) from the motherboard up I attempted several transactions with people from the UK, and all failed to honor their end of the deal. Thieves.

  12. Meanwhile, sales in Long Island City, Queens, plummeted 51.8% in the third quarter, according to a report from Serhant. In addition, the median price dropped 6.8% to $881,500, the data showed. ‘

    Is that a lot?

  13. ‘They had lost so much money in the market that their $2 million Florida vacation home budget vanished into thin air,’ says Hanson, who works with Coldwell Banker in Stuart, Florida. The pair have since backed off buying a new property entirely.”

    The HBB needs to take the lead on crowd-sourcing the funding to build a fitting memorial to all those trillions of dear departed Yellen Bux that have flown off to debauched currency heaven.

  14. “For the first time in a decade, home prices in Southern California are definitively falling.

    “They’re not falling – they’re shifting. Yeah, that’s it, that’s the ticket.”
    — Suzanne

  15. Few, if any, major real estate experts predict Southern California home prices will fall like they did during the Great Recession.

    Um, yeah…how many “major real estate experts” whose paychecks were signed by the REIC predicted the last housing bubble bust? At least the current crop of REIC dissemblers can recycle the same lies and spin their predecessors put out back in 2006-2007.

  16. Elderly residents who paid up to $1m to live in seniors dorm at ASU file lawsuit about party NOISE

    Alex Oliveira For Dailymail.Com – Wednesday

    Residents of Mirabella – a dorm complex for people ages 62 and up – filed a lawsuit with the Maricopa County Superior Court last spring over the ‘unnecessary and excessive noise’ coming from students at the Shady Park bar.

    One recent ASU alumna, 25-year-old Anna Bartholomew, offered The Wall Street Journal a more blunt view of things: ‘There will be parties. There will be loud noise. It’s ASU.’

    Residents also pay about $5,000 per month to cover food, cleaning, and other building amenities.

    ‘Live music can mean a trio,’ she explained her deposition, ‘It doesn’t mean boom-boom-boom all night.’

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/elderly-residents-who-paid-up-to-241m-to-live-in-seniors-dorm-at-asu-file-lawsuit-about-party-noise/ar-AA12TATq

    1. I’ll never understand how someone who has the means to pay so much money could somehow fail to understand what goes on in a student dorm.

  17. At some point, probably sooner than later given the likelihood of further rate increases, some of the sellers who have been banking on their ability to ride this out will have no choice but to blink.

    You stick to yer guns, sellers. You have every right to expect young couples to fund your retirements. Don’t give it away! A creditworthy buyer will Shirley be along any day now eager to seize upon this special listing and pay your full wish price. Dig in those heels!

  18. Consecutive monthly falls in housing values between April and August knocked more than $114,000 off the median house price in Sydney – equivalent to $927 a day.

    Consider it a tax on stupidity for electing globalist Quislings.

  19. A reader sent these in:

    Triple confirmed today – build to rent projects are NOT moving forward as many thought just a month or two ago. Spoke with a builder today who was planning on 30+ communities going that way… now they plan to work through them the old fashioned way and write down the value 2 mrkt

    https://twitter.com/koakley81/status/1580713966858211330

    Anyone who paid market for land in Austin, Feb 2022 through May 2022 is likely underwater at this point. I know I am. Must be more.

    https://twitter.com/atxREpodcast/status/1580672697327316992

    There’s an F bomb in this one:

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1580744709516894208

    The monthly mortgage payment needed to afford the median priced home for sale in the US has increased 51% over the last year ($1,698 –> $2,559) to a record high as mortgage rates have moved from 3.05% to 6.92%. Wages in the US are up 5% over the last year.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1580724019380523008

    It’s getting scrappy out there. RE agents may need to begin canning food to prepare for the long market winter ahead

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1580582660732497920

    Home sales falling…faster than GFC

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1580703280979591168

    I was told being a landlord meant risk free passive income

    Is this what @LoganMohtashami meant when he said homeowners with low rates and equity are just chilling?

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1580730514809311233

    Why that’s savagely unhealthy.

  20. “sellers don’t want to sell for lower prices,’ said Daryl Fairweather, an economist at Redfin.”

    Darnyl…. How many times has The Big Fat Bastard schooled you on this and you still forget his wise words…..‘want in one hand……’

    Say….. didn’t Darnyl come from another crime syndicate operation like Fannie or Freddie?

    Tampa, FL Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY As Deflationary Spiral Squeezes Florida Housing Market Like A Rotten Orange

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/33610/market-trends/

    1. Sinatra, one of the best-selling music artists in history, known for hits like “My Way,” “Strangers in the Night” and “New York, New York,” lived on the compound in the 1950s and ’60s, renting it from bank heiress Dora Hutchinson, according to published reports.

      Smart guy, that Sinatra

        1. His music was excellent.

          But who gives a flying ✈️ fawk what the long-dead former occupant of an overpriced shack did for a living? I don’t understand how that is relevant to pricing at a level where the house won’t sell.

          1. I suppose there was a time it would have carried a certain cachet. But Sinatra is now very mid last century.

    1. So that old bag of bones declares that “the pandemic is over,” while simultaneously renewing the “emergency?” There is no clearer evidence that this is all about power hungry politicians ripping the country off blind rather than any sort of health emergency.

  26. You can’t ride the coattails of your neighbours’ sales anymore | Toronto Real Estate
    Oct 13, 2022 The market has shifted, yes. But, here’s what that means: in the past, we’ve become accustomed to heated Seller markets. So a box on a lawn could sell for ridiculous sums. That’s not the case anymore … today, that box just sits, and nobody wants it. But a good product presented well, priced accordingly … sells.

    The only difference between then and now is that you can’t ride the coattails of your neighbours’ sales anymore … you actually have to put in the work and make educated decisions and … no more freebies!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQKkol-rAmw

    2 minutes.

    1. But a good product presented well, priced accordingly … sells.

      Where “good product” is a house bought too high, renovated for cheap, and barely breaking even.

  27. I fear that people, even most on this board, do not fully understand the current environment that all of China is living with right now and how truly significant it is for our entire world, as China is tremendous.

    Mandatory PCR tests every 24-72 hours, everywhere and no one can opt out. Health codes that tie to your smartphone that turn green, yellow or red (uh-oh) depending on health status. If it’s red, get ready to be sent to a quarantine center (concentration camp) or expensive hotel where you foot the bill the whole way. The CCP might just issue a lock down (work from home) order at any moment for an entire city or district that is enforced by the quarantine police (ba di – men in white health suits) who are will weld your apartment door shut to keep you there. There are no personal rights currently in China thanks to the “Zero Covid” policy.

    The insanity and illogical nature of what is happening is much more pervasive toward every crevice of society in China than even the Cultural Revolution was. Whats worse is in the midst of this unfathomably destabilizing “health” campaign, in 2 days starts the 20th People’s Congress. Xi has stated he wants a 3rd- 5 year term which something only The Great Helmsman himself, Mao has done (Mao ruled for life). There is no clear successor at all aside from Xi, so I expect it to be him. If he wins another term, I think it’s fair to say he will be the most powerful person to ever live, in terms of scale of absolute control over the most number of people, all aided by sophisticated technology.

    He will still have to contend with Mother Nature though, and she is certainly frowning on China, if not fully turning her back. Poyang Lake is China’s 3rd largest lake and is fed by the Yangtze River. This is the river that runs through Wuhan, Nanjing and exits to the East China Sea at Shanghai. It is the traditional rainy season right now and the lake is totally dry (worse than lake Meade…), to the point where locals are digging wells to access the ground water, something they have never had to do before. The 3 Gorges Dam and many of the 1000’s of other dams have changed river patterns in China significantly. The CCP believes humanity can over come nature and endeavored on the “South-North Water Transfer Project”, which has failed miserably and ruined the fresh water to much of China.

    Everyone on this board is very aware of the “rotten tail” or “tofu-dregs” buildings in China and that is still going to ruin them more than everything I mentioned above. For any government in China that is not national, over 50% of their operating revenue came from leasing (not selling) land to developers with huge fees to the CCP. Now that developers are not buying but actually going bankrupt, smaller governments need to find a way to make money. So they shake the people down like always, and for how much money they need, this will not end well. They could literally take all the peasant’s money and still not have enough due to the staggering debt. A bank bail in will not save them, eventhough bank bail-in’s are happening in rural Chinese banks.

    There are a seemingly myriad more contentions I can make for why China is hopelessly lost (Uyghurs, organ harvesting, poisonous food, loss of morals and religion…), but my last point is the ruinous population demographics for China, all courtesy of the One Child Policy. The actual numbers of their people are so dismal, that if all childbearing age women had a child now, it would still be in death spiral. But not all women will have a child. In fact, the term “Last Generation” had become somewhat of a depressing rally cry of the youth, essentially stating they will not marry, have kids, get a house, do anything since the CCP can take it all away. This has become known as a few things “lying flat”, bai-dan or “let it rot” because people just don’t care.

    People are not having it now. They have taken everything from them and the pressure is mounting amongst the population. There are evermore present “acts of terrorism” of people hanging banners demanding the end of Zero Covid and to have their lives back. The internet censors act quickly to remove this, but it spreads too fast. People don’t fear the way they used to because they can become a prisoner overnight because someone in the 50 story apartment building across the street had 1 positive PCR test.

    It is more fun to guess the future, so I will make two predictions as to how China will evolve within by the end of 2023
    -I DO NOT think China will attack Taiwan.
    -Either: Xi takes total power and turns China into a North Korea like state, totally cutting off from the rest of the world. OR, Xi loses in a coup and the CCP collapses and China experiences a pretty large civil war.

    1. China is one giant hellhole. Most Americans don’t comprehend what it’s like to be poor and oppressed, and think that as long as everyone has computers and iPhones life can’t possibly be that bad.

      I remember when I was in England touring the Tower of London and looking at all the royal saltware from bygone ages. Some other American tourist looked at it and remarked something to the effect of “Wow. It’s really stupid that you’d have such fancy storage for salt.”

      When one is raised in a country where goods and services are astronomically cheaper than any other period in history and one also doesn’t read history one becomes a total and complete moron.

      I don’t think there is any way yo completely comprehend how bad it is in China without any experience of it, but there can be an intellectual enough comprehension to know we want absolutely nothing to do with it.

    3. China is fubar, no argument there, but that’s been true for a long time and yet…………..they still stand.

      Also a nice patriotic war to fire up the home stand always helps,I think Taiwan is toast.

      Plus quantity has a quality all it’s own. There’s like 1.2 billion (with a B) Chinese.

      2. Nah..Taiwan isn’t toast.
        China has seen the effect of sanctions on Russia.
        They wouldn’t want that.
        But what they do want BACK, is the territory Russia took from them, and possibly more.
        What could Russia do at this point in time, as to resistance.
        China would see that as a win/win.
        Far bigger strategic win with little or no resistance from PTB.
        Strategetly far worse for US than them taking Tiawan.

    4. I care for China just like I care for Iran, NK, Afghanistan, or New Zealand. If they don’t like their leaders, get rid of ’em.

      IOW, IDGAF.

  29. “He hopes an a la carte menu of incentives might attract a few buyers to new neighborhoods being built in both Fresno and in Clovis.”

    I looked a homes at Cooper River at end of 2008. I told them their homes were 15% too high at the time, and I could find a foreclosure for 100K less with everything they offered and more. They basically laughed me out of the door. I ended up buying a pristine REO home 25% below it’s original build price and 35% below the current neighborhood market price. Pissed off a lot of ppl in the hood.

    Cooper River had 6 foreclosures on one street a year later.

    Fresno is going thru some sort of millionaire influx, as I don’t understand insane local prices and the mentality used to justify it. We are well behind the downward trend, but it will come.

    1. Sorry to burst your bubble, but no millionaires are moving in to Fresno, at least not in any significant number. Maybe you meant millions of illegals?

      1. But don’t you become an instant millionaire when you sign on the dotted line for your Fresno sh@tbox?

        At least that’s what your zestymate says

        1. My aunt had a pretty decent house in Fresno. Sold it last year for about 300K. To an “extended family” of “undocumented workers”.

  30. From Crain’s New York:

    JPMorgan earnings decline as bank braces for ‘bad events’

    Harder times are drawing closer, CEO Jamie Dimon warns

    1. Pshaw, Ben “Alex” Jones. Peerless prognosticator Janet Yellen has assured us there will be no new financial crisis “in our lifetimes” thanks to the Fed’s wise and able stewardship of our banking system and monetary policy.

  31. So, the Chinese Government is using the old technology vaccines with their vaccine programs . Its effective rate is be!ow 50% and they promote 5 shots.
    Their overall rate of Covid is one of the lowest in the World – weird for ground zero for Covid-
    In spite of a low infection rate, a zero Covid rate is the goal of the China Government.
    First, China never used the gene altering expiermental shots the West did. Second , China infections are some of lowest in world.
    But China is still locking down , doing repeated mass testing , and demanding zero Covid , only using traditional vaccine techno!ogy.

    So, this is a great control group to compare to the Western response to Covid.

    Did China have a 40% increase in deaths like Western life Insurance Companies had? Did China have a massive increase in sudden death and heart problems, strokes etc, especially in younger people.
    Did the African Countries that only used Ivermectin to combat Covid have these range of new deaths.
    And now that its going viral that Pizler never tested for fake vaccines stopping transmission , it looks like Big Pharmacy thinks that their immunity on vaccines protects them from liabilty .
    And , its already coming out that the new Booster shots are just as non effective as the others have been. And this poison is still on the market, approved for 5 year olds a couple days ago. And the World Declaration of a Covid Pandemic is still outstanding , with whatever that brings.
    In a sane World, given the evidence that lockdowns, masks, and lethal fake vaccine don’t work, a immediate emergency call to stop the vaccines and a investigation ensue would be sane. But no, these fraudster are proceeding with their agenda, regardless of the facts.
    Unbelievable!

    1. Did China have a 40% increase in deaths like Western life Insurance Companies had?

      There is no way of knowing. As for the Chinese jab, it is my understanding that it is akin to the J&J jab. No mRNA, but plenty of spike proteins

      1. I can’t trust any data out of China, but more than once in the pass three years I have read they were using the old technology vaccines and producing them for a number of Countries. I also read that Russia produced a old technology vaccine.
        I just think people were brainwashed into thinking the Pharmaceutical and vaccine approach to health was great and it wasn’t profit motive and faked corrupted science all along. Not that Medical Science didn’t have some good stuff, but how much was BS.

        1. Sort of “old technology”. IIRC, they were adenovirus based and used our good friend the spike protein instead of an attenuated coronavirus, because no one has been able to make a truly old school vaccine that works on covid, though one could argue that the spike protein jabs don’t work either and are dangerous as well.

          These ademovirus jabs were used a lot in the 3rd world countries, because of lower cost and availability. The AstraZeneca jab is similar and it had its issues.

  32. The bond vigilantes will feast on the U.K. over the next few weeks, says Andy Brenner
    CNBC Television
    Oct 14, 2022 Andy Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss if any danger has been averted in the United Kingdom, where Brenner looks for potential spillover effect, and more.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfgRlHPcClQ

    2:28.

  36. These aid packages are starting to add up. Bet this is generating some lucrative kickbacks for the Big Guy & the neocons.

    US to send munitions, Humvees to Ukraine in $725 mln aid package: Officials

    https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/10/14/US-to-send-munitions-Humvees-to-Ukraine-in-725-mln-aid-package-Officials

    The latest package would bring a total of more than $17.5 billion worth of US security assistance since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

    1. Markets
      CNBC TV
      Watchlist
      Updated Fri, Oct 14 2022 5:22 PM EDT
      Dow closes 400 points lower to end a wild week of trading
      Carmen Reinicke
      Tanaya Macheel
      Pro Picks: Watch all of Friday’s big stock calls on CNBC

      Stocks slumped Friday, capping off a volatile week of trading, a day after posting a historic turnaround rally as investors digested inflation expectations.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 403.89 points, or 1.34%, to end the day at 29,634.83. Still, the index was up 1.15% on the week. The S&P 500 shed 2.37% to 3,583.07 and notched its seventh negative close in eight days. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 3.08%, ending the day at 10,321.39, weighed down by losses in Tesla and Lucid Motors, which declined 7.55% and 8.61%, respectively.

      Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended the week lower, falling 1.55% and 3.11%, respectively.

      Stocks fell to session lows after a consumer survey from the University of Michigan showed inflation expectations were increasing, a sentiment that the Federal Reserve is likely watching closely. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led declines as growth companies are most sensitive to interest rate hikes.

      At the same time, bond yields spiked, with the rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury topping 4% for the second time in two days as investors react to higher inflation expectations.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    1. Prop 47 – who would have thought that allowing people to steal without consequences would make people and businesses safer. Not sane people of course but California is wacky for a reason.

    3. San Francisco residents fed up with crime, homelessness: ‘It’s getting less safe
      But my how they love their Prop 47!

  41. Mecum Chicago 2022 auction airing right now…. Looks like a bargain hunters paradise…. I’m talking serious sawing and slashing of muscle car prices.

    Hope you didn’t HELOC that $80k resto-mod thats going for $20k right now…. tooo day.🤣👍

      1. w/ a 304 in it too. That thing was a beaut. Did you see the 1986 Jeep Gladiator? Such a unique pickup and a rare bird considering it was a 3/4. Awesome truck. End of an era.

  43. I just read in the Mexican media that there are 200,000 Venezuelans waiting in Mexico to be admitted into the US.

    Two. hundred. thousand.

    1. And these are the poorest of the poor, not those with body dysmorphic disorder getting hedonistic plastic surgery.

  44. Ok, lawsuits by California Drs already filed against new law , signed by Governor Newsom , that goes into effect Jan 1, 2023.
    Basically a Dr can suffer punishment if they say something that is different than the official narrative.

    This would take free speech from a Doctor, or any discernment in how they practice medicine.
    Basically it takes away the Patients right to have anything but the official narrative.
    Your Dr would be a drone, not entitled to any opinion other than what is dictated by the Health Authorities.
    You Dr would be under extortion , threat of punishment and job threat if the Dr had a opinion contrary to the authorities.
    It was already unfortunate that health insurance Companies were so instrumental in the course of what care should be, but now its a Big Brother Authority that dictates whats disinformation or not.
    Also, its a one size fits all application of medicine.
    Its also outrageous that Pharmaceutical manufacturers have gained this kind of power, to control the news, shut down the world, and now muzzle Drs and Scientists and tell them what will be the treatment .
    Big Pharmacy has taken over medicine , so good luck with that.

    1. The Financial Times
      UK politics & policy
      Liz Truss’s tax U-turn fails to win round markets as gilts sell off
      Investors and MPs jittery after UK prime minister’s hasty press conference with further instability forecast
      Liz Truss giving a press conference in Downing Street on Friday
      Liz Truss at her press conference on Friday, which lasted eight minutes
      George Parker, Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe and Sebastian Payne in London 10 hours ago

      Liz Truss sacked her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and shredded her economic strategy on Friday, but her effort to salvage her premiership failed to win over financial markets and left Conservative MPs in a state of mutiny.

      In a Downing Street press conference lasting less than 10 minutes, Truss named Jeremy Hunt, former foreign secretary, as her new chancellor and backtracked on her promise to avoid an £18bn corporation tax rise.

      “We need to act now to reassure the markets of our fiscal discipline,” she said. She admitted last month’s “mini” Budget, which contained £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, “went further and faster than markets were expecting”.

      But on the day that a Bank of England emergency bond-buying programme ended, Truss’s comments were followed by a big sell-off in the gilt market, with investors concerned that the scrapping of the £18bn tax cut was not enough to put the UK back on a sustainable fiscal path.

      “We do not expect financial concerns to abate as a result of today’s action,” Citigroup said in a note as it criticised the government for not making a broader change to policy. “Instead, we believe further market instability likely lies ahead.”

      Yields on long-term UK government bonds, the focus of the central bank’s scheme to shore up gilt-exposed pension funds, rose sharply as prices fell, raising fears that further turmoil could follow on Monday.
      …

      1. “…raising fears that further turmoil could follow on Monday.”

        Does it seem like a worser crash lies ahead at the end of every weekend anymore?

  46. Maybe Elizabeth Guzman should try this in Peru, the country she came from not long ago.

    Virginia Democrat to Introduce Bill to Prosecute Parents Who Refuse to Treat Child as Opposite Sex

    By ARI BLAFF
    October 14, 2022 8:28 AM

    Virginia Democratic delegate Elizabeth Guzman is seeking to introduce legislation that would hold parents criminally liable for refusing to treat their children as a different sex from the one they were born into.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/virginia-democrat-to-introduce-bill-to-prosecute-parents-who-refuse-to-treat-child-as-opposite-sex/

    1. The Democrats are going to get themselves voted out of office for embracing LGBTQXYZ positions that the mainstream views as abominations.

    1. Experts Say Disaster Could Be Near. Details Are Slim.
      By Jack Hough
      Updated Oct. 12, 2022 5:19 pm ET / Original Oct. 12, 2022 10:12 am ET
      Something big might happen in the markets, but no one seems to know what that might be.
      Spencer Platt/Getty Images

      A new fear has descended on Wall Street, and the details are so horrifying that no one seems to have any.

      “Policy makers will act until something breaks,” wrote a bank chief investment officer in a recent client note.

      “The Fed will keep hiking until something breaks, and clearly the cracks are forming,” wrote the CIO of a mutual fund company.

      “The Fed is breaking things,” a money manager told CNBC.

      If there’s one thing investors had better hope doesn’t break right now, it’s something, I’m pretty sure.

      Some eyes are on Credit Suisse . The bank’s cratered share price and recent spike in credit default swaps, a type of bet on financial distress, have drawn comparisons with Lehman Brothers, which went bust in 2008. But Credit Suisse’s capital position is “comfortable” for now, says J.P. Morgan .

      Lehman was brought down by bad bets on iffy mortgages. Credit Suisse’s problems appear both less acute and farther-reaching: It isn’t good at being a big investment bank, based on many years of low returns, occasional scandals and losses, and halfhearted restructurings. But it’s better at asset gathering and wealth management.

      What’s needed, then, is a full-hearted restructuring that ditches all but the safe and stable bits of investment banking. But the costs from that would hit upfront, so Credit Suisse might need to raise funds to pull it off, or to calm investors. Management is reviewing its options and will announce a plan later this month.

      Then there’s the gilt, or U.K. government bond. A panic there last month over the new government’s announcement of unfunded tax cuts sent yields up in a hurry, with 30-year issues topping—brace yourself—5%. Pensions wobbled. The central bank stepped in. The new government relented. Yields fell. But now they’ve jumped again.
      …
      https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-bond-market-disaster-crash-experts-51665532674?noredirect=y

    2. Do you stay up at night worrying about all the sh!t that could go wrong in financial markets? I gave that up
      in 2008.

  48. ‘How Did that Guy Get Up There?’ Ray Epps Featured in CNN Propaganda Video Shot by Pelosi’s Daughter

    Infowars.com
    October 14th 2022, 6:12 pm

    A familiar face appeared in a CNN propaganda piece aired Thursday that followed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) during the January 6 protest.

    In footage shot by Pelosi daughter Alexandra Pelosi for an HBO documentary, excerpts of which were aired on CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 Thursday, provocateur Ray Epps is prominently featured waving a Trump flag and talking on a phone atop a scaffold.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/how-did-that-guy-get-up-there-ray-epps-featured-in-cnn-propaganda-video-shot-by-pelosis-daughter/

  49. I just read that pro jab body builder Doug Brignole just died of suddenly.

    I have enough confidence in the vaccine, based on my research, to get it done. Those of you who think the vaccine kills people can use me as a test. If I die, you were right. If I don’t die, and have no ill effects, you were wrong, and should admit it (at least to yourselves). Better yet, you should admit that you were misled, and tell the world who misled you, so other people can benefit by avoiding those fearmongers.

    Doug Brignole, 4 April 2021

    Looks like we were right. Sorry, Doug.

    I don’t know when he got his last booster, but given his activism I’m gonna guess he probably got the new one very recently.

    1. The sad thing is, given his level of fitness and health, had he contracted Covid, it would have been a nothingburger.

Comments are closed.