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Properties With Blemishes Need To Be Discounted Below The Discount For Good Properties

A report from DS News. “‘Homebuilders started scores of projects during the pandemic moving frenzy and are now stuck with a bunch of new houses that are hard to sell because mortgage rates have risen to 7%,’ said Faith Floyd, a Redfin real estate agent in Houston. ‘Builders are giving away everything but the kitchen sink to attract bidders. Many are offering to buy down the buyer’s mortgage rate by 1.5 points, and I’ve seen at least one offer a $10,000 check for closing costs, a $3,000 gift card and a free fridge. This one way builders will dig themselves out of the hole they’re in.'”

“With a glut of inventory on their hands, builders will likely ease up on construction in 2023, according to Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. According to Refin some 29% of U.S. single-family homes for sale in Q3 were new construction — the highest share of any Q3 on record. ‘Many builders are offering more incentives than regular sellers,’ Floyd continued. ‘A lot of individual sellers are still pricing their homes too high because they’re having a hard time accepting that the pandemic housing boom is over and they’re not going to get 30 offers like their neighbor did last year.’

The Killeen Daily Herald. “A quarterly housing report from Texas Realtors and the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M appears to show that local home listings have nearly tripled in the third quarter of 2022 since the same time last year. As of Q3 2022, there are approximately 1,378 active home listings in the Killeen-Temple metropolitan area, the report said. Despite the apparent glut in inventory, closed sales are down nearly 14%, to 2,238 in Q3 2022.”

The San Francisco Business Times in California. “The Bay Area has just endured its lowest high season in more than a decade. Compass reveals that not only were overall Bay Area real estate sales statistics bad for October, they were actually historically bad. The 11-county greater Bay Area had the lowest number of home sales in October since 2007, Compass Chief Market Analyst Patrick Carlisle said.”

“The drop came as economic conditions continued to nosedive, marked by the increase in interest rates to a 20-year high, volatility in financial markets and layoffs beginning to spread throughout the region. Home sales fell year-over-year by 37%. Home sales of $3 million-plus in October fell even further — down 44%. Carlisle said unsold inventory is also running much higher for ultra-luxury homes — over 11 months of inventory for listings priced $10 million-plus — indicating the development of a buyers’ market in that segment.”

“In San Francisco, October saw a total sales of 425 homes, down 38% from a year ago (682 closed sales), according to the report, also representing the worst October in city sales since 2011. The median three-months rolling sales price in the city was $1.65 million, down 8% year-over-year. The general trend of cooling demand and declining sales extended across the region, Carlisle said, noting that after years of holding the balance of power, sellers have reacted to the changing circumstances with increased price reductions since spring and delisting homes from the market without selling. In San Francisco, about 12% of the city’s active listings were withdrawn from the market in October, a big increase from just 4% in the spring. Moreover, the percentage of price reductions on active listings shot up in October by more than double what it was in August.”

“‘The market is in a state of reset for a new normal. And as always, when we are not in a high market, properties with blemishes whether location, floor plan, etc., can be hard to sell — and need to be discounted below the discount for good properties,’ said Compass agent Karen Mendelsohn Gould. ‘All of these early sellers are setting the pricing. Now with pending layoffs in the tech sector coming — that could have an impact but I think it will be at least 6 months before we see it.'”

“Farther south in Santa Clara, comparing October 2022 to October 2021, the number of home sales was down about 40%. For the inner East Bay areas of Oakland and Berkeley, that figure was at 32%. ‘We do really see opportunities because we welcome a balanced market, which it wasn’t before,’ said Compass agent Jessica Grimes. ‘Our buyers are seeing possibilities when they were dismayed before, and our sellers are needing to adjust to current market demands driven by savvy investors. The market always speaks. The high end is even savvier, holding cash and waiting on the sidelines for larger opportunities.'”

The News Tribune in Washington. “In its October home sales report, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service showed that in Pierce County pending sales for existing single-family homes was down 42.87 percent, while listings were up more than 107 percent from a year ago. For the condo market, listings in Pierce County were up more than 105 percent from a year ago, but pending sales were down 55.74 percent from 2021 and closed sales were down more than 15 percent. The median price was $369,000, up 4.69 percent from a year ago but down from $410,000 in September.”

“Dick Beeson, managing broker at RE/MAX Northwest in Tacoma/Gig Harbor, described the market now in its ‘new normal.’ ‘We are now experiencing a balanced market. I said the new normal was 2-to-4 months of supply back two or three years ago. We’ve finally reached that point. This is the new normal until interest rates go down.'”

From KTVZ. “Central Oregon has seen home prices rising fast in recent years, but the latest monthly report from Redmond’s Beacon Appraisal Group is more evidence the region is not immune to the market forces, from inflation to rising interest rates, that have sent prices falling elsewhere. The October report shows Bend’s median home sale price dropped $45,000 last month, to $680,000, the lowest level since the start of 2022. The number of sales also fell some, to 160, lowest since last winter, while the days on market for sold properties rose to an average 28 days, highest since the spring of 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Redmond, meanwhile, saw its median home sale price dropped $47,000 last month, to $478,000, the lowest price since last December.”

The Idaho Statesman. “Idaho’s largest homebuilder is laying off workers. Corey Barton, president of CBH Homes in Meridian, told the Idaho Statesman that rising interest rates have forced the company to gradually downsize over the last year. Soaring home prices and interest rate hikes have fueled the market’s downturn as fewer residents are able to afford to buy houses. He said he’s excited to see prices return to something more realistic. ‘Our goal is to make home prices more affordable,’ Barton said. ‘We’re lowering our prices.'”

Bisnow New York. “The lenders backing the shuttered Wagner Hotel in Battery Park City have sued for foreclosure after owners allegedly failed to pay off a $96M loan. The 38-story hotel’s loan has been in default since 2020. The hotel lost approximately $75M in value between 2018 and spring 2022, court filings allege, and the luxury operator’s departure also impacted the values of the 115 top-floor residential condo units, which have reportedly lost around $2M in value over the last year.”

From Market Watch. “The Sunbelt’s hottest pandemic rental markets are chilling out. Where are the biggest drops? ‘We’ve seen a dramatic pullback in terms of the demand in multifamily this year … and a lot of the fast-growing Sun Belt markets that we saw last year also are seeing really large construction pipelines that are now delivering,’ Jay Lybik, national director of multifamily analytics at CoStar Group, told MarketWatch. ‘It’s kind of a perfect storm in those markets in that demand is still positive, but it’s pretty low, and we’re delivering a lot of units. It’s really pushed down rents pretty darn quickly,’ he added.”

“Las Vegas, Nev.; Tampa, Fla.; and Phoenix have also experienced ‘rents retreating by over double digits so far this year,’ Apartments.com said in its report. Growth in rents for units in multifamily structures also declined from September to October, contributing to a three-month negative streak. ‘Additionally, none of the top 40 largest markets saw their year-over-year asking rent expand in the month of October, which further illustrates the overall disappointment in market conditions,’ the report said.”

From Infotel. “In the Central Okanagan, the benchmark (typical) selling price of single-family houses peaked in March at $1,131,800. It has now dropped to $997,000. That’s a significant (almost $135,000) decline. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has a graph showing prices in the country as a whole from 2005 until this year. It shows an average price of just over $200,000 for all homes in 2005. It’s risen to about $775,000 this year. The biggest factor impacting housing sales this fall has been the steadily rising Bank of Canada key lending rate. It’s gone up to 3.75% from 0.25% at the start of the year.”

“It shows a five-year conventional mortgage in September of this year was at 5.64%. That’s only slightly higher than the 5.5% in May 1951.Mortgage rates climbed slowly but fairly steadily until 1951 until they hit double digits (10.11%) for the first time in September 1969. They peaked at 21.46% in September 1981.”

From Bloomberg. “Sweden’s beleaguered real-estate companies may have to resort to fire sales and new share issues as the sector faces risks of rising vacancies and a projected 15% slump in property valuations. The catalyst for such a scenario would be the industry’s looming ‘wall of maturities,’ according to the economists. While most companies should be able to secure financing through bond markets or banks, as much as a third of maturing bond volumes come from firms that may have to resort to asset sales to refinance. The bank estimates as much as 120 billion kronor ($11.1 billion) of bonds fall due in each of the next three years.”

“The development in the sector has raised the specter of a crisis similar to the one Sweden experienced in the 1990’s, when a property market crash reverberated throughout the Nordic nation’s financial system. The jump in borrowing costs is also pressuring the residential housing market where Swedish home prices have declined steadily since March. Handelsbanken — among the biggest mortgage lenders in Sweden — now expects the drop to continue, reaching 19% from the peak, which is a deeper slump than the 15% it had previously forecast.”

“‘We estimate that housing prices so far have dropped by about half of the forecast decline, and that they won’t stabilize until spring 2023, when inflation turns lower,’ the bank said. ‘After that, we expect very modest price increases, and with interest-rates remaining at higher levels there is no tailwind in sight for housing prices in the foreseeable future.'”

From ERR on Estonia. “Inflation and the rising cost of living are causing banks to reduce home loan sums, meaning that people who still qualified for a housing loan a year ago might not today. ‘If a customer was offered a loan of €100,000 last year, their salary, provided it has remained unchanged, would only get them a loan of €80,000 today,’ said Tanel Rebane, head of private banking at Luminor. ‘Because the cost of living has gone up, many people who still qualified for a loan last year might no longer qualify today as they have less in way of reserves. That is the main factor affecting lending,’ Rebane said.”

“‘There is more real estate on the market compared to last year, as high prices have motivated those who were holding back to sell. Soaring energy prices mean that simply holding on to real estate has become insensible as utility costs still need to be paid,’ the banker said.”

“‘I believe that no bank wants to start evicting people from their homes,’ said Sille Hallang, head of SEB’s private banking division. She said that if people find servicing loan payments has become difficult, other expenses should be revisited first and people who are experiencing problems should contact the bank immediately. ‘The sooner we learn of payment difficulties, the better,’ said Hallang, adding that a solution can be found in most cases. ‘But this requires the customer to work with us and not disappear.'”

From Reuters. “Vietnam’s second-biggest listed developer, No Va Land, is firing staff and seeking urgent asset sales, company and industry sources said, as it struggles to pay creditors in the latest sign of distress in the country’s real estate sector. The company’s signals of distress come amid wider turmoil in Vietnam’s property and credit market, which has been exacerbated by arrests of bosses of real estate companies suspected of wrongdoing and a rapid fall in the value of the country’s currency, the dong, after the central bank relaxed its peg against the dollar.”

“Two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters the company was trying to sell distressed assets, including hotels and resorts, to raise cash to pay back loans and fund its operations. No Va Land has lost nearly 40 per cent since the beginning of this year, reaching its lowest level since April 2021. ‘Debts are coming due this year-end and, with the current tightening regulations on loans given to real estate firms, it’s hard for the company to have cash,’ one of the sources said.”

“During the past month, the company has laid off about half of its workforce, and most construction has been put on halt, three sources said. No Va Land chairman Bui Xuan Huy told state-run newspaper Tuoi Tre that market developments were unfavourable, and that the company had been forced to cut staff. ‘It hurts,’ he said, adding: ‘We hope the State Bank of Vietnam will work out measures to help real estate developers and investors to have access to credit.’ A fourth source, a supplier for one of No Va Land’s projects, said his 200 billion dong (US$8 million) worth of raw materials were stuck as the project was being put on hold.”

The South China Morning Post. “Analysts said China’s US$2 trillion real estate market remains ‘in the doldrums,’ said Ben Chow, head of Asia-Pacific real assets research at MSCI. ‘[China] is one market where plenty of assets are up for grabs, but there are few takers,’ said Chow. ‘Investors from North America and Europe appear to be staying away for the time being, even as those from Singapore and Hong Kong have been … picking up choice assets amid the sell off. Only time will tell which strategy will pay off in the long run.'”

This Post Has 124 Comments
  1. The Oregon article has the report at the end with lots of graphs and additional crater on all the little sh$tholes around the larger sh$tholes.

    ‘Builders are giving away everything but the kitchen sink to attract bidders. Many are offering to buy down the buyer’s mortgage rate by 1.5 points, and I’ve seen at least one offer a $10,000 check for closing costs, a $3,000 gift card and a free fridge. This one way builders will dig themselves out of the hole they’re in’

    I wanna free kitchen sink Faith.

    1. translation- your monthly nut will be 50% higher than those who bought last year, but you get a few “free” tchotchkes.

      1. This 50% higher monthly payment strawman is a reflection of the dismal state of mathematics and economics training for used home sellers. Nobody’s monthly payment is going up 50% unless a large raise or windfall came their way since last year.

        However, homes selling for 33% less, or not selling at all, certainly is mathematically and economically feasible:

        1-1/1.5 = 33%

        1. well, there are houses selling today. If they are selling at 10% below what someone paid 6 months ago, but instead of 3% you’re paying 8%, then yes your monthly nut is 50% higher than those who bought six months ago.

        2. I have two good friends with “strong” degrees in math, allegedly, who are confounded by this very situation.

          Both bought homes during CCP-19 at 3% interest rates but before prices really popped that last 20-30%.

          Both had accidental babies and now want bigger homes.

          Both can’t sell out of a 3% mortgage and into a 7.5% mortgage without ending up DOWNSIZING what they have, for the same payment.

          It’s hilarious for a guy like me, sitting on the sidelines, ready to make a cash offer when a reasonable one comes my way — probably in 2025.

          1. who are confounded

            Much as the brain stops functioning at the start of a love/infatuation relationship, it doesn’t work when a donkey meets a mortgage. In the first case, I always thought it was God’s trick to guarantee babies. In the second I don’t have a clue.

  2. ‘And as always, when we are not in a high market, properties with blemishes whether location, floor plan, etc., can be hard to sell — and need to be discounted below the discount for good properties’

    Thornberg:

  3. No matter what else happens elections-wise, if a communist who can’t complete a sentence and an airhead who was too afraid to debate both win, in “red” and “purple” states, that is a sad day in America.

    1. Benjamin Franklin, at the end of the Continental Congress, said “You have a republic, if you can keep it”.

      Perhaps we have reached the tipping point, and there are no longer enough educated voters to make freedom possible. Future historians will probably ask “what were they thinking?”. The answer, of course, is that they weren’t.

      1. One thing that is frightening to me is that I see a lot more young people wanting free sh!t, and I think the buying votes with “student loan forgiveness,” etc. is working to a certain point.

        I have actually seen commenters on different sites saying things like “they’re going to do auto loan forgiveness next.” There is now this belief where you borrow a bunch of money you can’t repay and the government steps in and takes care of you.

        1. It’s tough out there for lots of young people. It doesn’t surprise me they believe in the free stuff nonsense.

          That’s why I’m glad I married a spouse who believes in saving and refuses lifestyle-inflation as our collective income increases annually.

        2. I have actually seen commenters on different sites saying things like “they’re going to do auto loan forgiveness next.”

          Given that the student loans are only being partially forgiven, plus it hasn’t actually happened yet, I would say that is wishful thinking.

    2. The Fetterman thing in PA is stunning. The guy has severe brain damage, cannot complete a coherent sentence, yet won in commanding fashion? I was watching the PA vote tallies last night, and all of a sudden tens of thousands of votes poured in for him while OZ was basically “stuck” on the same number.

      I don’t understand how votes are tallied and how, all of a sudden, one candidate can receive a block of tens of thousands of votes while another is stuck on the same number. It does not pass the sniff test.

      1. The way I see the Fetterman thing it’s like this: they’re not voting for Fetterman, they’re voting for the democrat to win the race. Once he’s won, they’ll replace him with a hand-picked choice. If they didn’t run him, they wouldn’t win the race.

      2. Hershel Walker is probably even more brain damaged. There is a good chance Fetterman will largely recover, but the repeated traumatic brain injuries Walker suffered are permanent and will get worse over time.

      3. The Fetterman thing in PA is stunning.
        Him winning is just nuts. I am more coherent when I am drunk as hell (unfortunately I have seen some videos) then he is on his best days.
        I know Oz came from NJ recently but come on PA. Remember, No one said a damn thing when Hilary moved to NY to run for the Senate.

        1. Hilary moved to NY to run for the Senate

          Carpetbagger is the nicest adjective I have for her.

          1. So no one is left out: a carpetbagging, carpetmunching, c@nt. And that’s just the ‘”c”s.

        2. No one said a damn thing when Hilary moved to NY

          The $10M that came with her for the campaign spoke volumes.

  4. ‘Now with pending layoffs in the tech sector coming — that could have an impact but I think it will be at least 6 months before we see it’

    Reading these layoffs articles I was reminded of the unfortunate situations where I knew what was going on inside companies going through this. Sure, cut payroll. But yer in a hole, that’s why you can’t get credit. I don’t remember one that made it out and all screwed their creditors until the doors got slammed. So we don’t really know how many of these are dead men walking. But how do you ‘return to profitability’ if you’ve never made a dime and probably paid little attention to it.

    Money losing concept stocks indeed.

    1. But how do you ‘return to profitability’ if you’ve never made a dime and probably paid little attention to it.

      Scam firms, all of them.

    2. “Money losing concept stocks”

      I had coffee with an old friend last week. He’s done extremely well arranging exits for busted VC-backed companies. Sunk costs in software assets are significant and difficult to match via rewrite. There’s real residual value there. I could see the same kind of feasting that is to come in distressed debt and foreclosures. Knowing the kind of problems that such companies have in their software (and how to fix them), it has me wondering what I could do to move something like that forward.

      Lurker
      #LearnToCode
      https://www.infoq.com/presentations/Reflection-OOP-Social/

  5. ‘Idaho’s largest homebuilder is laying off workers…‘Our goal is to make home prices more affordable…We’re lowering our prices’

    Cory will undercut his previous buyers into foreclosure and then when these’s no more money to wring out of the crater, he’ll hop on a private jet to some beach for a decade.

    al·tru·ism
    /ˈaltro͞oˌizəm/
    Learn to pronounce

    noun: altruism

    -the belief in or practice of disinterested and selfless concern for the well-being of others.
    “some may choose to work with vulnerable elderly people out of altruism”
    Opposite:
    selfishness
    Zoology
    behavior of an animal that benefits another at its own expense.
    “reciprocal altruism”

  6. “He said he’s excited to see prices return to something more realistic. ‘Our goal is to make home prices more affordable,’ Barton said. ‘We’re lowering our prices.’”

    Last year our goal was to shaft you with our prices. This year our goal is to make home prices affordable!!

  7. This post has absolutely nothing to do with housing and everything to do with conspiracy theories.

    I recently ran across this picture of the JFK assassination:

    https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-11-07_11-25-32.jpg?itok=LMRK3rSo

    Many witnesses of the JFK assassination have stated that the limousine screeched to a complete stop during the shooting. Take a look at this frame from the Zapruder film and note two things:

    1. Both the Secret Service driver and the Secret Service passenger next to him are thrust forward in their seats which one should expect if the driver jammed on the brakes.

    2. No parts of the frame are blurred. If the car is in motion, one should expect either the people in the car to be blurred if the background is clear or the background to be blurred if the people in the car are clear. For most of the other frames of the Zapruder film this fact holds true but for this frame it does not; Both the people in the car AND the people in the background are clear. This is strong evidence that the car was not in motion at this time.

    FWIW.

    1. “1. Both the Secret Service driver and the Secret Service passenger next to him are thrust forward in their seats which one should expect if the driver jammed on the brakes.”

      Aren’t these guys supposed to take a round for the boss rather than ducking out of view?

  8. “FedEx Parks Planes, Maersk Cancels Sails: World Trade Appears To Be Rapidly Deteriorating”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fedex-parks-planes-maersk-cancels-sails-world-trade-appears-be-rapidly-deteriorating

    (a wee bit of a snip)

    Economic storm clouds are gathering worldwide as some of the largest shipping companies warn about sliding global trade. US shipper FedEx and Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S have been vocal about emerging signs of a global slowdown. Both of these companies are widely seen as a barometer for international trade.

  9. Every time a “woke” little Stalinist SJW gets sh*t-canned from a failing creepy Orwellian tech company, an angel gets its wings. Gosh, hope none of these little commies have mortgages or rent to cover.

    ‘I got this wrong, I apologize’: Mark Zuckerberg says sorry as he tells workers in 6am email that he’s slashing 11,000 jobs – around 13% of its workforce – in one of the biggest US layoffs this year after shares lost two thirds of their value

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11407539/Meta-cut-11-000-jobs-one-biggest-U-S-layoffs-year.html

    1. “Sorry, the buck stops with me, I take full responsibility….What is that, am I one of the 11,000? Ha, good one! Now if you’ll excuse me, the Board is going to give me more stock options.”

  10. A reader sent these in:

    Just spoke to a senior mortgage specialist at a big Canadian banks. She told me she hasn’t done ONE mortgage refinancing in almost 3 months. Last year around this time, she was doing multiple refinancing a DAY. Fun times ahead for the leveraged.

    https://twitter.com/qcapital2020/status/1590034915344928769

    The Kobeissi Letter
    @KobeissiLetter
    Layoffs This Month (% of Workers):

    1. Twitter: 50%
    2. Cameo: 25%
    3. Robinhood: 23%
    4. Intel: 20%
    5. Snapchat: 20%
    6. Coinbase: 18%
    7. Opendoor: 18%
    8. Stripe: 14%
    9. Lyft: 13%
    10. Shopify: 10%
    11. Meta: “Thousands”
    12. Apple: Hiring Freeze
    13. Amazon: Hiring Freeze

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1589974682245435397

    FTX going from $32B valuation to zero almost overnight has to be some kind of record…

    https://twitter.com/FreightAlley/status/1590124973745524736

    Sh*t is getting real out there … the system been breaking under the surface for months. What can this person do to stay above water currently?!? He’s not the only one in this situation and there will be loads more in the coming months as layoffs mount.

    https://twitter.com/ManyBeenRinsed/status/1589966720067768320

    Carvana hit a new all-time low today, down 98% from its peak in August 2021 and 56% below its IPO pricing in April 2017.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1590032616362999809

    John Wake

    “Of the 1.2 million Airbnb listings in the US, 62% have been added since 2020”

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1590050719864074243

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    It’s INCUMBENT upon underwriters to hide decipherable data. 2021 “investment-property loans w/o taxpayer backing $9.9B, 8-fold increase since 2018” “In a weak economy, borrowers who qualified on rental income likely to default at 3x rate vs. conventional mortgages”
    #Airbnbust

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1590081088336318465

    2008 confirmed … 🔥🔥🔥🧐

    https://twitter.com/Galactic_Trader/status/1590011271759396865

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Housing’s ripple effects begin to ripple…

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1590119368020865026

    Opendoor is down 35% in 5 days

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1590046850916429824

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    Our October home price index shows #Phoenix price declines accelerating. Down -2% in month of October alone and now -10% from April peak.

    https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1590047597225742337

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    I see Fitch out w/data. My question: Has anyone seen @TransUnion
    Q3 subprime 60+ DPD delinquency RATE? “Current delinquency rate subprime auto loan bonds at 5.13% as of Oct based on borrowers 61 days or more late per @FitchRatings That’s compared w/3.76% in same month last year”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1590070106742476800

    Fannie Mae reported net income of $2.4 billion in Q3, down from $4.7 billion in Q2, amid a large increase ($2.5 billion) in provisions for potential losses due to expectations that U.S. home prices will fall by more than previously anticipated

    https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1590086284504367105

    Canadian real estate prices have gone from the fastest growing to the fastest falling, says @BetterDwelling. Canada had the biggest real price drop in the Group of 7 earlier this year. We’re suffering for the 43% run-up since 2020.

    https://twitter.com/DouglasTodd/status/1590092384003850241

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    “We’ve never seen a market stretched so taut and not seen a reaction yet. What is going to break? The policy error was in housing. The whole undersupply narrative is going to vanish…”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1589696441815031811

    Looks like they’ve got about 15% of annual Boise supply ready to go as spec. 50% of 2012 annual production levels.

    https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/1589740111809216514

    This just popped up on my YouTube feed a couple days ago

    https://twitter.com/syd_viciously/status/1589764763898499073

    Here’s what we know about top iBuyers in Phoenix…They hold close to $1B in homes right now
    If they sold their active inventory today, they would lock in ~$100m in losses
    They are slashing prices by 2% every ~14 days
    Demand has dried up at current rates
    This could get ugly

    https://twitter.com/jasonlewris/status/1589790542774554624

    “But the risk lies in whether the property sector’s woes will spread more broadly in the economy, which could cause loan losses to grow further. The property sector drives about 28% of China’s gross domestic product…

    https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1589807341968723968

    Danielle DiMartino Booth
    @DiMartinoBooth
    Most telling “About 100,000 accounts that are >60 days delinquent remain in accommodation programs.” How will white collar recession affect prime delinquencies going forward?We’ll be watching this closely @Quillintel in the coming months as repossessions rise.
    @TransUnion

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1590019157755846659

    1. “FTX going from $32B valuation to zero almost overnight has to be some kind of record…”

      CR8R all the way through to China…

      1. The Financial Times
        FTX Trading Ltd
        Binance chief says near collapse of FTX ‘severely’ eroded confidence in crypto industry
        Changpeng Zhao tells employees that the bailout of its chief rival is ‘not a win’
        Changpeng Zhao, billionaire and chief executive officer of Binance
        Changpeng Zhao said ‘regulators will scrutinise exchanges even more’
        Joshua Oliver in London an hour ago

        The near collapse of FTX has “severely shaken” confidence in the crypto industry and will trigger tougher scrutiny by regulators, Binance chief Changpeng Zhao said a day after orchestrating a rescue of the exchange’s rival.

        Zhao said in a note to employees seen by the Financial Times that the bailout, which consolidated Binance’s position as the world’s biggest crypto trading venue, was not “a win”.

        “Regulators will scrutinise exchanges even more. Licenses around the globe will be harder to get,” Zhao wrote to staff early on Wednesday.

        The message also laid out the speed of the deal he agreed with his counterpart Sam Bankman-Fried to prevent the total collapse of FTX, which had been valued at $32bn earlier this year. Binance declined to comment on the internal memo.

        The two men shocked the crypto industry when they announced on Tuesday that Binance had agreed to rescue FTX after a surge in customer withdrawals sparked a liquidity crisis.

        The troubles at FTX were accelerated after Zhao said over the weekend his company planned to sell down more than $500mn worth of FTX’s own digital token, a sum that dwarfed its average daily trading total.

        “We did not master plan this or anything related to it,” Zhao said.

        “It was less than 24 hrs ago that SBF called me. And before that, I had very little knowledge of the internal state of things at FTX. I could do some mental calculations with our revenues to guess theirs, but it would never be very accurate,” Zhao said.

        “I was surprised when he wanted to talk. My first reaction was, he wants to do an OTC deal . . . But here we are,” he added.

          1. BTC now at $17,216. IIUC, $17,000 is some kind of break point; first for Tether (remember them?) and also for Michael Saylor’s margin call.

          2. Down to 16,492 at one point now. Are we finally going to see a real stress test?? It has taken a lot longer than I thought it would but the ponzi must ultimately fail.

      2. Wealth
        Sam Bankman-Fried’s $16 Billion Fortune Is Eviscerated in Days
        The FTX co-founder is on the brink of a 94% wealth wipeout at the hands of his billionaire rival, Binance’s Changpeng Zhao.
        Binance to Purchase Rival Crypto Exchange FTX
        By Tom Maloney
        November 8, 2022 at 1:52 PM PST
        Updated on November 9, 2022 at 6:49 AM PST

        Just weeks ago, Sam Bankman-Fried was considered crypto’s version of John Pierpont Morgan, willing to throw around his massive fortune to save the industry.

        The curly-haired 30-year-old known as SBF was everywhere, backing flailing projects including BlockFi, Voyager Digital and Celsius. From the Bahamas, he invested in Robinhood Markets Inc., raising speculation that he’d take over the trading app. And why not? Just last year he said that once his FTX was big enough, it could swallow CME Group Inc. or Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-08/sbf-net-worth-is-eviscerated-in-days-with-binance-set-to-buy-ftx

          1. Forbes Digital Assets
            Editors’ Pick
            SBF-Linked Tokens Lead Crypto Markets Downward 24 Hours After Shocking Merger Announcement
            Steven Ehrlich
            Forbes Staff
            I’m the Director of Digital Asset Research at Forbes
            Follow this author to stay notified about their latest stories.
            Nov 9, 2022,11:28am EST

            The crypto market continues to reel 24 hours after the sudden and surprising collapse of FTX.com, the offshore crypto exchange led by Sam Bankman-Fried.

            Bitcoin, currently priced at $17,245, is trading at its lowest point since November 2020. Back then the asset was beginning a steep ascent upwards towards $70,000 from the economic collapse brought on by the onset of the global pandemic.

            Bitcoin is trading at its lowest point since late 2020
            Bitcoin is trading at its lowest point since late 2020
            Bitcoin is trading at its lowest point since late 2020
            TradingView

            But the damage is far more widespread, and there could be more to come. After briefly holding the line around $18,400 in the immediate hours following the shocking announcement that FTX was going to be acquired by Binance, the bottom fell out of the market overnight. Bitcoin is now down 6.5% over the past 24 hours and ether has fallen 10.66%.

            Bitcoin and ether slipped overnight
            Bitcoin and ether slipped overnight
            Bitcoin and ether slipped overnight
            TradingView

            But those assets seem downright buoyant when compared to tokens closely associated with Bankman-Fried’s now-crumbled empire.

            FTT, a crypto-exchange token unique to FTX that offers incentives such as reduced trading fees, has lost 84.98% of its value over the past five days. Trouble for the asset began over the weekend when it lost close to 20% of its value. But the asset entered a death spiral yesterday morning after the deal with Binance was announced with many FTT holders wondering if the value would ultimately go to zero.

            The bottom fell out from FTT overnight
            The bottom fell out from FTT overnight
            The bottom fell out from FTT overnight
            TradingView

            Additionally, while the value of FTT appeared to stabilize somewhat after its precipitous drop, trouble then came for other assets known to be favored or affiliated with Bankman-Fried. In particular, over the last 12 hours, FTT is actually up 1.38% while SOL, the native token of Solana’s blockchain is down 22% and SRM, a decentralized exchange run by FTX on top of Solana has dropped 20%.

            Sam Bankman-Fried led tokens are disproportionately falling compared to the broader market
            Sam Bankman-Fried led tokens are disproportionately falling compared to the broader market
            Sam Bankman-Fried led tokens are disproportionately falling compared to the broader market
            TradingView

            BNB, the native token of Binance Smart Chain that also offers similar services to FTT on Binance initially jumped almost 20% when the acquisition was announced, but it is now down 27% from that point to now trade at $289.70.

            Steven Ehrlich
            I am director of research for digital assets at Forbes. I was recently at Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange…

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2022/11/09/sbf-linked-tokens-lead-crypto-markets-downward-24-hours-after-shocking–merger-announcement/?sh=422008031956

          2. With SBF out of the picture, who will save crypto?

            Somehow, these roaches continue to rise from the dead. The governments of the world need to extinguish this rotten garbage for good. SBF needs to go to prison for fraud.

        1. “Sam Bankman-Fried’s $16 Billion Fortune Is Eviscerated in Days”

          No No No…Hell No!

          He NEVER had that kind of fortune. Make belief numbers are not wealth, people.

    2. 1. Twitter: 50%
      2. Cameo: 25%
      3. Robinhood: 23%
      4. Intel: 20%
      5. Snapchat: 20%
      6. Coinbase: 18%
      7. Opendoor: 18%
      8. Stripe: 14%
      9. Lyft: 13%
      10. Shopify: 10%
      11. Meta: “Thousands”
      12. Apple: Hiring Freeze
      13. Amazon: Hiring Freeze

      Of all of these, it strikes me that only Intel and Apple (and maybe Amazon AWS) are actually tech firms.

      1. I love bumping into Silicon Valley people who tell me they “work in tech”. Yeah, the marketing moron for Opendoor’s Phoenix free-for-all is a “tech worker”. Whatever.

        1. Intel is like a lot of firms: the bulk of their income is from one or two ponies. In Intel’s case processors and memory chips. Their other lines of business aren’t quite so dominant or profitable. When tough times hit a lot of those business lines get slimmed down or even shut down.

    3. “I lost my job and I haven’t had much luck finding a job for the last 3 months.”

      I call BS on this. This is the easiest time in history to get a job. Anybody with a pulse can get a job.

    4. accommodation programs

      Extend and pretend. It’s time to start taking houses, cars, RVs, boats and everything else away from these deadbeats.

  11. Home Prices in Sacramento Down for 5th Month in a Row | Selling a Home in Sacramento
    Adopt a Dog Realtor – Tim Pantle – Sacramento
    Nov 9, 2022
    Median Home Price in Sacramento Down for 5th Month in a Row. The Median Priced Home in Sacramento County is now $510,000. Down about 11% from May of this year.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJkoXwRdkJE

    2:23.

    1. BREAKING
      US Probes FTX Empire Over Handling of Client Funds and Lending

      Wealth
      Redfin Cuts 13% of Staff, Shuts Down Home-Flipping Business
      The company’s workforce has shrunk by 27% since the end of April as a slowdown grips the US housing market.
      The Redfin logo seen displayed on a smartphone.
      Photographer: Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket /Getty Images
      By Patrick Clark
      November 9, 2022 at 5:45 AM PST
      Updated on November 9, 2022 at 6:42 AM PST

      Redfin Corp. is shuttering its iBuying business and laying off workers for the second time in almost five months, as the likelihood of a prolonged US housing slowdown continues to ripple through the industry.

      The brokerage said in a blog post Wednesday that it would lay off more than 860 workers, roughly 13% of its staff. The decision follows an earlier reduction announced in June and brings the total number of Redfin employees down 27% since the end of April.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/redfin-lays-off-13-of-staff-shuts-down-home-flipping-business

      1. BREAKING
        US Probes FTX Empire Over Handling of Client Funds and Lending

        A day late and a dollar short, as always.

    2. Opendoor slashes 18% of staff
      iBuyer latest in industry cutbacks in wake of market turn
      National
      Nov. 02, 2022 01:42 PM
      By Holden Walter-Warner
      Opendoor’s Eric Wu (Photo Illustration by The Real Deal with Getty Images, Opendoor)

      Opendoor is slashing nearly a fifth of its workforce.

      The San Francisco-based iBuyer is laying off approximately 18 percent of its employees, chief executive officer Eric Wu announced in a blog post on Wednesday. The cuts include around 550 people across the company’s departments.

      https://therealdeal.com/2022/11/02/opendoor-slashes-18-of-staff/

    3. It’s getting real (estate)

      The real estate market has been hard hit by inflation and rising interest rates, as home buyers have pulled back in the face of increasingly unaffordable mortgage payments. Retail mortgage originations dropped 90% year-over-year at Wells Fargo, which is now reportedly contemplating layoffs. Online lenders and proptech startups are facing similar pain.

      For companies that rely on the housing market, it’s a tough road ahead until interest rates and the housing market turn.

      https://www.protocol.com/newsletters/protocol-fintech/proptech-high-interest-rates#toggle-gdpr

      1. Every few weeks Wells Fargo reaches out telling me I can get a mortgage today with only 3% down. Sound lending.

  12. Meta is laying off 13% of its staff, or more than 11,000 employees, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a letter to employees Wednesday.

    “Today I’m sharing some of the most difficult changes we’ve made in Meta’s history,” Zuckerberg said in the letter. “I’ve decided to reduce the size of our team by about 13% and let more than 11,000 of our talented employees go. We are also taking a number of additional steps to become a leaner and more efficient company by cutting discretionary spending and extending our hiring freeze through Q1.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/meta-to-lay-off-more-than-11000-thousand-employees.html

      1. They will all take a hard look at low profit and unprofitable operations within their firms and act accordingly. The unicorns are rife with them, but all large firms have some.

        Anyway, always good to see a ticket taker go down in flames.

    1. Meta is laying off 13% of its staff, or more than 11,000 employees, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a letter to employees Wednesday.

      Probably only the tip of the iceberg. A lot of people who “work” there do nothing of actual value. They will be easy to jettison.

      1. “A lot of people who “work” there do nothing of actual value.”

        Like sliding down the corkscrew slide to the floor below?

        1. Like sliding down the corkscrew slide to the floor below?

          The New Belgium Brewery in Fort Collins has a slide. At least they brew beer.

      2. https://compactmag.com/article/the-email-caste-s-last-stand

        Money shot:

        “Many “unicorn” tech startups began with a few engineers and a product they wanted to sell, but over the past decade-plus, they have accrued a bloated bureaucracy of “equity”-minded h.r. activists, ESG-savvy consultants, affinity-group mavens, climate-change specialists, and many other email-caste hangers-on. Now that times are turning bad, tech companies can no longer afford to sustain a massive “court” of professional-class nobility, paying sinecures to sons and daughters of the good and the great who don’t know how to code or crunch numbers, but know how to write emails, hold useless meetings, and talk about diversity and inclusion.”

    1. I don’t know about anybody else, but I don’t feel any more interested in buying Sh!tCON than I did at $65,000. When it drops below $10,000, I’ll still feel the same. In fact, I’m not interested at $100, or $1.

    2. According to coinmarketcap, there are currently 21,703 different crypto products. (new crypto’s are currently added daily, so tomorrow there will be probably more)

      Keep hearing financial radio show hosts referring to crypto as an ‘asset class’.

      Exactly what are these people thinking?

    1. “The 2022 election was stolen”

      ‘They Went for the Complete Steal!’ Dems Use ‘Biden Bump’ Strategy to Secure Crucial Races

      by Adan Salazar
      November 9th 2022, 12:05 pm

      Gary Bernstein
      @Gary_Bernstein
      ·
      Follow
      Replying to @Gary_Bernstein
      Wisconsin got a 5% ballot drop that were ~all-Biden, ~0 for trump. The votes below were all added suddenly at 6am creating that 1 very odd bump. It smacks of “finding” the exact number of votes needed to win, after the real results came in

      The same “Biden Bump” phenomenon appears to have been observed Tuesday by MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell during live election night coverage.

      Lindell highlighted bizarre anomalies in multiple races, blaming the losses Republicans sustained on electronic voting machines that can be easily manipulated.

      “They went for the complete steal!” Lindell remarked on Truth Social, referring to a Midterm results graph showing suspicious activity in the Minnesota governor’s race between Tim Walz (D) and Scott Jensen (R).

      Discussing the Illinois Senate race pitting incumbent Tammy Duckworth (D) against Republican challenger Kathy Salvi, Lindell noted a bizarre “million vote spike,” which he attributed to “corrupt electronic voting machines.”

      The “Biden Bump” also appeared to emerge in the Michigan House race between Elissa Slotkin (D) and Tom Barrett (R), where the candidates were neck and neck until a post-midnight bump in votes in favor of the Democrat candidate.

      “Another race being stolen in the middle of the night,” Lindell commented in reference to a graph showing a dubious late-night/early morning vote spike in the Michigan attorney general race which favored of Democrat Dana Nessel over Republican candidate Matthew de Perno.

      Early in the night, Lindell also noticed a strange trend in the Georgia Senate race, where Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock suddenly accumulated a massive lead over Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

      “They are currently stealing Herschel Walker’s race with the machines!” Lindell again declared.

      With numerous reports of voting machine glitches and malfunctions on top of ballot issues across the country, Lindell’s observance of the mysterious bumps in votes – all in favor of the Democrat Party – may require a more thorough investigation.

      https://www.infowars.com/

    1. But at least home prices are dropping. Maybe next year we can buy a home so that we don’t have to keep talking about moving to Oklahoma.

  13. I’m not sure what’s going on with this vote-counting nonsense, but it should be a law that all votes for all offices need to be completed by midnight. It seems a number of important elections are not even counting right now, but only show 80% complete or whatever. I have no idea what that means or what they’re doing.

  14. “All I can do is continue to make the lives of Americans better.”

    He truly is brain damaged.

  15. Couldn’t have happened to a better person. I can’t stop LOLing at this:

    Second-largest Democratic donor’s wealth evaporates overnight in crypto meltdown

    Bankman-Fried was a big driving force behind the Democratic super PAC Protect our Future, which backed candidates who it thinks have the best shot to look beyond the present and “give our nation the best shot at ensuring the devastation that has occurred as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic never happens again,” according to Politico.

    In May, Bankman-Fried predicted he would spend even more before the 2024 presidential election, guessing that he would fund “north of $100 million” in the next election with a “soft ceiling” of $1 billion.

    Last month, the FTX CEO backed away from that previous assertion, tempering expectations for an even bigger spend between now and the 2024 elections.

  16. Watch: ‘#VaxxedtotheMax’ Canadian Lawyer Suddenly Collapses
    During Inquiry

    by Adan Salazar
    November 9th 2022, 2:34 pm

    Lawyer was attempting to open a bottle of water, but then slumped over before collapsing onto floor.

    Social media posts indicate lawyer had indeed received multiple Covid jabs, with one Twitter post proudly hashtagged #vaxxedtothemax.

    Cameras were rolling inside the Library and Archives Canada building in Ottawa Wednesday when a government lawyer suddenly collapsed during an official inquiry.

    0:39

    https://youtu.be/Dz-rqKoYLyw

      1. I think i meant useful idiot as in Lenin but, no condolences at all.
        Another dead dem who will vote into eternity but who can no longer fund.

    1. The suddenness of his collapse was interesting. No wonder people are calling it “Dying of suddenly”.

  17. ‘The sooner we learn of payment difficulties, the better…But this requires the customer to work with us and not disappear’

  18. $142,500 3 bd 2ba 1,144 sqft
    Price cut: $25K (11/9)
    1948 E Robson Cir, Bullhead City, AZ 86442

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1948-E-Robson-Cir-Bullhead-City-AZ-86442/8357972_zpid/

    Date Event Price
    11/9/2022 Price change $142,500 (-14.9%) $125/sqft

    10/23/2022 Listed for sale $167,500 (+409.1%) $146/sqft

    12/14/2011 Sold $32,900 $29/sqft

    10/19/2011 Listed for sale $32,900 $29/sqft

    Ennio Morricone – Ecstasy of Gold (The Good, the Bad, the Ugly)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNGe7iK1O-4

    3:39.

    1. The Financial Times
      FTX Trading Ltd
      Binance ditches deal to rescue rival crypto exchange FTX
      Reversal comes as Sam Bankman-Fried tells investors up to $8bn in funding needed
      Binance cited issues ‘beyond our control or ability to help’ as it walked away from a deal to buy FTX
      Ortenca Aliaj and James Fontanella-Khan in New York, Joshua Oliver and Scott Chipolina in London and Stefania Palma in Washington 4 hours ago

      Binance will abandon its deal to rescue Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX cryptocurrency exchange, citing concerns about its business practices and investigations by US financial regulators.

      The move comes a day after Binance, one of the world’s largest crypto trading venues, tentatively agreed to buy FTX after it suffered a liquidity crunch.

      “As a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged US agency investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX.com,” Binance said in a statement late on Wednesday.

    2. The Financial Times
      FTX Trading Ltd
      Bitcoin sinks as FTX crisis spurs crypto contagion fears
      Worries rise over possible collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s exchange and trading firm
      Traders are racing to determine who is exposed to Sam Bankman-Fried’s secretive digital asset trading company Alameda Research
      Joshua Oliver 12 hours ago

      Contagion fears are sweeping across the crypto industry, sending bitcoin dropping as market participants race to determine who is exposed to Sam Bankman-Fried’s digital assets empire.

      Bitcoin, the world’s most actively traded crypto coin, fell 11 per cent to $16,500, hitting the lowest level since late 2020. Other tokens also sustained severe selling pressure, while crypto-related entities trading on traditional markets dropped.

      The fresh bout of selling came amid mounting concerns that Binance will abandon its deal to buy Bankman-Fried’s crypto exchange FTX, just a day after agreeing a pact to bail out its smaller rival. Crypto media outlet Coindesk reported, citing an unnamed source, that Binance might back out of the tie-up, but the exchange told the Financial Times that it was still early in the process and it had not made a decision.

      Crypto investors also turned their focus to Alameda Research, a proprietary trading firm controlled by Bankman-Fried that has been at the centre of the storm that has engulfed FTX.

      Market worries over Alameda’s financial health accelerated on Tuesday, triggering a wave of withdrawals from customers at FTX, and pushing Bankman-Fried to seek a rescue from Binance.

      As the impact of the shock deal set in, traders worried that the collapse of Alameda, one of the biggest traders on FTX, could resound through the markets at rapid speed.

      “[Alameda] will be scrambling to liquidate assets on their books to meet any debt obligations, of which there are many. In addition to the loans owed to FTX, Alameda is also an active participant in decentralised finance,” said Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, a markets research provider. “There is sufficient reason to believe the risk of further contagion remains.”

      Binance has declined to say whether its takeover plans for FTX include the trading firm. A bailout could help to insulate the digital assets industry and the exchange’s customers from further fallout but would add to the risks of the transaction.

    3. The Financial Times
      FT Alphaville FTX Trading Ltd
      Mutual crypto-destruction assured
      Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here! This is the war room!
      Alexandra Scaggs 13 hours ago

      The Cold War between FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao (CZ) went nuclear this week. Only one was left begging for mercy.

      SBF tweeted Tuesday that he had gone to CZ for help, and CZ whispered “no” did a few twetes that can be summarised “maybe! but also #RIPBozo lol”. Then someone told Coindesk on Wednesday that Binance might be getting cold feet.

      There was plenty of fallout, of course, with ethereum down 24 per cent, solana down 46 per cent, and FTX’s token FTT down more than 75 per cent. Even BNB, the token of ostensible crypto-war winner Binance, is selling off.

      Oh also, former inmate (/“fake Peter Pan cat”) Martin Shkreli and Interpol fugitive Do Kwon both appeared on a Twitch stream Tuesday to discuss the situation. Shkreli comforted his fellow degens with an assurance that jail wasn’t all that bad.

    1. “When analyzing the data, Mehic first found evidence of the beauty premium in traditional in-person instruction. For non-quantitative courses (e.g., business, economics) that were taught fully online, student attractiveness was positively correlated with student grades. However, this effect was not found for quantitative courses (e.g., math, physics). This was in line with the researcher’s expectations since non-quantitative classes tend to include assignments and presentations that encourage student-teacher interaction, while quantitative classes are often graded entirely through final exams.

      Yep, not enough hotties in engineering.

      1. not enough hotties in engineering

        The same applies to the men. I had a lot of math and physics classes with engineering majors.

  19. Tucker Carlson
    @TuckerCarlson

    Democrats absolutely cannot lose the midterm elections. And with that in mind, they’re already preparing us for election theft, which if you don’t want a civil war, you must passively accept.

    Tweet
    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Tucker Carlson
    @TuckerCarlson
    Democrats absolutely cannot lose the midterm elections. And with that in mind, they’re already preparing us for election theft, which if you don’t want a civil war, you must passively accept.

    3:43 PM · Nov 8, 2022
    ·Twitter Media Studio

    https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1590082670830112768?s=20&t=HMjV6T1rL8o_Z3-VxkLu6Q

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