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Any Action To Stop A Bubble Bursts A Bubble

A report from the Washington Post. “Months before the bank posted a foreclosure warning on the front door of the home that Sunya Musawwir has owned for 30 years, the D.C. government told her they would take care of everything: late penalties, fees, whatever it cost to bring her up to date on her mortgage. Nearly a year later, Musawwir said, she has not received a dime from the program. The amount she owes the bank, meanwhile, has nearly doubled. ‘If I don’t get the help that this program is promising, I’m really screwed,’ Musawwir said.”

From Pro Publica. “For many Somali families in Minnesota, the barriers to home ownership have long seemed insurmountable. Roughly three years ago, a handful of ending firms began offering an ‘interest free’ way to buy a home. Word spread fast. The seeming solution came in the form of a short document with three boldfaced words at the top: ‘Contract For Deed.’ But seller financing, as it is also known, lacks key protections for the buyer.”

“Many buyers mistakenly believe if they make the monthly payment stipulated in their contracts, they will successfully pay off the home by the end of the contract term. But those payments may only add up to a portion of the price of the home, and the buyer is expected to make up the difference with a lump-sum payment, known as a balloon, or by refinancing the loan. One of those buyers was a long-haul truck driver who for years had rented an apartment in a Minneapolis suburb.”

“This summer the trucker purchased a spacious home in an outer-ring suburb south of Minneapolis. But just two months later, he said, the contract had already become unmanageable. His family is at risk of losing not only the house, but about $100,000 they have paid, including a hefty down payment. He said he never understood the disadvantages and quirks of the contract for deed. Now, it’s too late to get out of it. ‘It’s really scary,’ he said. ‘To be honest, you’re sleeping right there and you can’t think of it as if it’s your house.'”

Bisnow New York. “Interest rates and recession talk are playing out in New York’s multifamily market. Woody Victor, a principal at lobbyist Capalino added a lot of businesses are ‘blowing up’ – with several deals falling over because they are no longer financially viable. ‘If 2008 was the real estate crisis, 2022 or 2023, is the crisis of white-collar, high-tech jobs,’ Housie CEO Hemant Chavan said. ‘It affects the luxury rental market, and it’s affecting the market trends … The other indicator that I think is concerning is Facebook backing out from their office leases.'”

Tech Explore on Washington. “The string of layoff announcements by Amazon and other Seattle-area tech employers has many asking whether the tech industry is bound for a major correction and even more job cuts in coming months. In fact, that correction may already be underway. October’s tech losses didn’t include all of the roughly 12,500 layoffs recently announced or reported at Amazon, Meta, Convoy, Zillow, Redfin and other tech firms. October’s losses also don’t include any of the contractor positions eliminated during that period, said ESD economist Paul Turek.”

“All told, Washington looks set to lose as many as 18,000 tech or tech-related jobs over barely two months. That’s more than the state lost in the dot-com bust of 2001-03, when many overvalued online startups collapsed and thousands of workers found themselves without jobs.”

Bisnow National. “The amount of office space available for sublease is reaching record highs as tech companies, facing a cold winter, mount aggressive layoff campaigns. A record 212M SF of office space is available on the sublease market, according to CoStar data. Tech companies have placed more than 30M SF of offices on the sublease market, according to CBRE, triple the amount they listed in 2019. ‘Downsizing is much more of a threat than work-from-home,’ Nicholas Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University, told the WSJ.”

The Sun Sentinel. “According to Zillow, Mondays could be the best time to try and get a home with a price cut as 18% of listings have a price drop on that day in South Florida, based on historical trends. ‘We are getting to the point where most of the activity is happening on the weekends as far as showings,’ Jeff Grant, realtor with The Jeff Grant Team in Palm Beach Gardens. ‘If you go through a weekend and there are no showings, that is a good indication that you probably need to cut the price.'”

“‘The main cause of that is that sellers are holding on to what their neighbors got six or eight months ago,’ said Ryan Greenblatt, broker associate with Lang Realty in Boca Raton. ‘There’s no official timeline. If you are not getting showings in about three or four weeks, then it’s time to have a conversation.'”

From Fortune. “When a buttoned-up Fed economist says the U.S. housing market has entered into a “difficult [housing correction”], it’d be wise to believe them. When it comes from the lips of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it’s more of a warning. Powell is right: Not only does housing activity continue to plummet, but U.S. home prices are falling for the first-time since 2012. Markets like Austin and Reno are down 10.2% and 8.4%, respectively. It didn’t take long for Bay Area techies in 2020 to realize their newfound remote freedoms, coupled with historically low mortgage rates, made the pandemic the perfect time to buy in ‘Zoomtowns’ like Boise.”

“The correction is so sharp that Boise—which saw its year-over-year rate peak at 47% between July 2020 and July 2021—has already gone negative in 2022 on a year-over-year basis. Indeed, Boise home prices are down 7.1% since its 2022 peak, and down 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.”

The Denver Gazette. “American Financing Company, a mortgage loan broker with an office in Aurora, announced it plans to lay off almost 200 Denver-area employees by Dec. 23, according to the Colorado Secretary of State’s website. The layoffs are due to ‘unforeseeable business circumstances’ causing a reduction in sales according to the WARN notice, which requires large employers to provide a notice to employees 60 days prior to any layoffs with some exceptions. In this case, employees received reduced notices due to the speed and extent of sales declining in the second half of October, according to American Financing. The layoffs represent more than half of the company’s workforce.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “A developer who tricked more than 160 would-be buyers into giving her at least $26 million in down payments for condos at a Coachella resort she never built was sentenced Monday to 20 years in prison. Ruixue ‘Serena’ Shi, 38, used the stolen money to pay for luxury cars, worldwide travel and a high-fashion wardrobe, court records show. Most of the buyers were Chinese citizens who believed California real estate was a safe investment, and some of them lost their life savings, prosecutors said. Prosecutors had initially sought just under 16 years in prison, but after Shi tried to back out of her plea deal, they increased their recommendation to 20 years.”

The Globe and Mail. “At least two of Canada’s largest mortgage lenders allow borrowers to shift a portion of their interest costs onto the principal owed on their mortgages, helping them cope with the impact of soaring interest rates. The variable-rate products from Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce are not new but they’re being put to the test in this rising rate environment. With interest rates up 3.5 percentage points so far this year, borrowers are at risk of falling behind on their interest payments and increasing the amount of their original loan.”

“But TD and CIBC allow the size of the original loan amount – the mortgage principal – to grow in some circumstances. For example, consider a homeowner who made a 5-per-cent down payment on a $500,000 property. With deferred interest added back to their mortgage, their loan is allowed to grow to up to $498,750. That is 105 per cent of the original mortgage of $475,000. (And that’s assuming the borrower hasn’t folded the CMHC insurance premium into their mortgage, which would add another 4 per cent to the loan amount.) At the same time, if that property has faced the typical 10-per-cent price drop that has occurred so far this year nationwide, that property is now worth $450,000.”

“The fact that CMHC rules allow for balances on insured mortgages to grow past the original amount raises questions, said Ben Rabidoux, founder of market-research firm North Cove Advisors. ‘Is that prudent?’ Mr. Rabidoux asked, saying CMHC is a ‘manager of risk on behalf of Canadian taxpayers’ in the housing market. If interest rates at renewal time are higher than the contract rates the borrowers originally signed up for, that will also push up the mortgage payment. And if their loans were allowed to grow during the mortgage term, these borrowers will have a higher mortgage principal to pay down over a shorter period of time. ‘That’s going to be a really nasty dynamic,’ Mr. Rabidoux said.”

From Reuters. “Official property records show that Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, his parents, and top executives at the failed cryptocurrency exchange have purchased at least 19 properties worth nearly $121 million in the Bahamas. over the past two years. Most of FTX’s purchases were luxury beachfront homes, including seven condominiums in an expensive resort community called Albany, costing nearly $72 million. The bonds show that this property, which was purchased by one of the units of FTX, was to be used as ‘accommodation for key employees’ of the company. Reuters was unable to determine who lived in the apartments.”

“Documentation for another home with beach access in Old Fort Bay—a gated community once home to a British colonial fort built in the 18th century to protect against pirates—shows Bankman Fried’s parents and Stanford law professors Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried as signatories. One document, dated June 15, said the property would be used as a ‘vacation home.'”

“When asked by Reuters why the couple decided to buy a vacation home in the Bahamas and how it was paid for — whether with cash, a mortgage, or by a third party like FTX — a spokesperson for Professors said only that Bankman and Fried were trying to return the property to FTX. ‘Since before the bankruptcy proceedings, Mr. Bankman and Ms. Freed have been seeking to return the bond to the company and await further instructions,’ the spokesperson said, declining to go into further detail.”

“The FTX headquarters is now unoccupied, with furniture pushed up against some of the windows. Its banners have been removed. The $4.5 million plot of land is also empty. A security guard said the staff had not returned to the headquarters after he left earlier this month.”

From InnovationAus. “Months ago (in April), as the rise in the CPI was starting to get underway, the InnovationAus editor asked me; ‘Why is any sign of wage or consumer price inflation stamped on immediately by governments, while asset price inflation is considered virtuous?’ His interest wasn’t just in housing but also in startup valuations in the tech sector, saying; ‘Isn’t the VC market being flooded with $$ as the super funds go in search of yield? That the established VCs raising record-sized funds has less to do with the Australian ecosystem becoming ‘more innovative’ or in any way more attractive and more to do with zero/near-zero interest rates and the fact that the place is awash with money.”

“However, the real valuation isn’t always what matters. Just as in a housing boom, buyers flood the market for fear of missing out (FOMO), so investors will put away their concerns and accept a valuation because someone else is already investing at that value. So the roundabout keeps spinning if investor A accepts the valuation because they understand investor B will invest and therefore accepts the valuation. In reality, investor B only accepts the valuation because they think investor A will accept and therefore accept the valuation.”

“Governments don’t act to stop these bubbles from occurring for several reasons. The first is that they have very limited tools to deal with them, especially now that so much financing is by knowledgeable investors who can thoroughly investigate the businesses. Second, most policymakers only know neoclassical or orthodox economics, which teaches them that the market always determines the right price, especially when the purchaser is informed and rational.”

“Finally, any action to stop a bubble bursts a bubble; while bursting it later might be messy, having it happen on your successor’s watch is much better. However, underlying some of the worst excesses are some other characteristics of the third age of capitalism. Managerial capitalism has been replaced with ‘financial capitalism’. Creating value by financial machinations alone cannot be sustained forever; it will end on its own accord. However, while the economy is dominated by platform companies, where value is far more than the capital invested, there is a steady flow of new excess cash to be fed into financial machinations.”

“For example, suppose you book the integration costs (or in WorldCom’s case a write-down of the acquired assets) in the first quarter after the acquisition. In that case, you make the growth rate after the purchase look better than it really is. Like a Ponzi scheme, this works for as long as you can keep it going, but eventually, you run out of acquisition targets. Other tweaks, like not accurately reflecting the level of doubtful debts in the provisions, can also help sell the growth story.”

“But nothing sells the growth story more than the idea of growing demand. Here, WorldCom had a great story to tell: the internet’s capacity was doubling every hundred days. Throughout this period, one analyst, Andrew Odlyzko, reported that the doubling claim was simply inaccurate. In a reflective piece following the telco crash of 2002, he summarised both the actual data and where the claims had been made.”

“He concluded: ‘There are several lessons to be drawn from the myth of astronomical Internet traffic growth. One is that almost all people are innumerate, lacking the ability to handle even simple quantitative reasoning, and in particular to appreciate the power of compound interest. Another one is that people are extremely credulous, especially when the message they hear confirms their personal or business dreams (as the Internet growth myth did, by offering the prospects of huge growth in telecom and effortless riches for participants in the game). They are not willing to examine contrary evidence, and overlook glaring implausibilities and inconsistencies in what they hear.'”

“‘Finally, myths are very persistent, since respectable financial analysts and reporters were still writing about ‘Internet traffic doubling every 100 days’ as late as 2002.’ The moral of this story (and the reason it is covered in so much detail) is that bad ideas are often remarkably difficult to discredit, even when there is extensive evidence against them.”

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This Post Has 136 Comments

  1. The last link is kinda long but a good read.

    ‘For example, consider a homeowner who made a 5-per-cent down payment on a $500,000 property. With deferred interest added back to their mortgage, their loan is allowed to grow to up to $498,750. That is 105 per cent of the original mortgage of $475,000. (And that’s assuming the borrower hasn’t folded the CMHC insurance premium into their mortgage, which would add another 4 per cent to the loan amount.) At the same time, if that property has faced the typical 10-per-cent price drop that has occurred so far this year nationwide, that property is now worth $450,000’

    Negative amortization – check!

    1. “that property is now worth $450,000”

      The good news is the homeowner who made a 5-per-cent down payment won’t know they are $50k upside-down until February when they apply for the cash-out refi to pay for the Christmas they are about to put on their credit cards.

      1. If you’re a gambler it makes sense.

        If the market is rising. Well your costs are lower and when you go to sell you haven’t spent as much money on interest. you win, bank gets paid.

        If the market is falling, well your costs (monthly “rent”) are lower and when you need to sell (moving, lost job, whatever) well you just walk away. Jingle Mail. You win, bank does not get paid.

        it’s a stupid bet for the bank, but not necessarily for the buyer. Of course the bank will just get a free money bailout from the government so they don’t lose either.

      2. Washington Mutual’s pick a pay loans were popular back in 2004 – 2005.

        My DBLL had one.

        They didn’t get the mail address changed and I opened it (bad me) the first month I was renting there. Payment had three choices, 1 full 30 year, 2 no interest and 3 neg-am.

        He paid the neg-am for about 8 months which allowed him to make about $400 a month. Then he stopped paying but still collected $1,750 a month for 3 years until they took the house back in 2010.

    3. That was a good read. Was WorldCon another ‘Conspiracy of Genius’ or is everyone just kind of stupid? In the history of mass delusions and the madness of crowds, stupidity seems to be a common theme. The author is trying to be gentle by referring to us as innumerate and extremely credulous. LOL.

      1. I’ve got a little perspective on it. In December 1998 I started a job as controller for a small dotbomb in Austin. It was nuts. Stupid toys and games lying around. The TV was usually on flashing all the stock mania. MCI Worldcom was the biggest name at the time. They were also our second biggest customer after Coke. So I would sit there at my desk, watching the crawler scream about new MCI stock highs, while I was on hold waiting for accounts payable to tell me why they just hadn’t managed to get our invoice paid. It was a constant fight to get money out of them.

        People forget how much was going on. Worldcom was a telephone company. But now internet was delivered via ground lines and voila! you gotta ‘tech’ boom baby. Cell phone technology – same thing. Huge bubble that burst.

        At the end of the day as usual, it was fraud, especially accounting fraud:

        The WorldCom scandal was a major accounting scandal that came to light in the summer of 2002 at WorldCom, the USA’s second-largest long-distance telephone company at the time. From 1999 to 2002, senior executives at WorldCom led by founder and CEO Bernard Ebbers orchestrated a scheme to inflate earnings in order to maintain WorldCom’s stock price.[1] The fraud was uncovered in June 2002 when the company’s internal audit unit, led by unit vice president Cynthia Cooper, discovered over $3.8 billion of fraudulent balance sheet entries. Eventually, WorldCom was forced to admit that it had overstated its assets by over $11 billion. At the time, it was the largest accounting fraud in American history.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WorldCom_scandal

        These guys were just crooks.

        1. I enjoyed this line from back then:

          “For the same financial cost, it is often possible to get higher data rates through the postal system or through loading up 747s with DVD than by using fiber optic links.”

          People have a habit of not running alternative numbers. Housing is a great example. The parts don’t even come close to the retail price and quotes by various vendors about the situation are highly unreliable.

  2. ‘Months ago (in April), as the rise in the CPI was starting to get underway, the InnovationAus editor asked me; ‘Why is any sign of wage or consumer price inflation stamped on immediately by governments, while asset price inflation is considered virtuous?’

    I started posting videos this spring to try and get a leg up on what the media was reporting. The wheels have come off since. It’s been an eventful few months.

    Interesting that the ‘celebrities’ (I don’t consider a guy who throws around an inflated leather ball to be more than just that) are getting sued for crypto hyping. What about the globalist scum media and Larry – who went to so much effort to explain how a minor respiratory illness justified a doubling of shack prices in Boise and most of the country? Isn’t that just as absurd as these silicon valley scams?

    1. Athletes are indeed celebrities, just like actors, musicians, and other performers. In fact, they are really just salespeople working on commission. Sell more tickets, make more money. Everybody understands this … except of course Megan Rapinoe.

  4. ‘The FTX headquarters is now unoccupied, with furniture pushed up against some of the windows. Its banners have been removed. The $4.5 million plot of land is also empty. A security guard said the staff had not returned to the headquarters after he left earlier this month’

    So who was paying this security guard? Did Sam have a PC with quickbooks where he banged out a payroll every two weeks? Cuz if not – he had a bookkeeper! Or (gasp) an accountant! I don’t know why the globalist scum media is hiding things here, but they most certainly are covering up the real story.

    Not only is Sam headed for jail time, his mommy and daddy are too.

    1. “Not only is Sam headed for jail time, his mommy and daddy are too.”

      He’ll re-emerge as a Realtor or mortgage pimp like all ex-cons do.

    2. Not only is Sam headed for jail time, his mommy and daddy are too.

      I’ll believe it when I see it. #BidensAmerica is a corrupt banana republic.

    3. “after he left earlier this month”

      Maybe that refers to the security guard, when his paychecks stopped? And the MSM didn’t say that FTX had no accountant, they just said there were no accounting controls, and no competent auditing. I’m sure there was somebody doing the mechanics of payroll and money movement, but they were likely in cahoots with SBF and Caroline.

      1. ‘they just said there were no accounting controls’

        OK, make sure there’s a payroll, but the door is wide open if somebody wants to steal it all. Makes sense. Crypto exchanges have never been hacked or anything.

    4. I just showed this to my wife….she does business with Albany. Embroiders shirts for the Yacht club and main club and tennis. Small world. Stupid expensive place.

    5. https://usawatchdog.com/unstoppable-crash-worse-than-2008-coming-james-rickards/

      Interview with Jim Rickards he talks a bit about FTX. Says they were sending the money raised for Ukraine over to Ukraine where it was used to buy FTX crypto tokens and that money was being laundered back into the Democratic Party through FTX.

      This is such a rats nest I gotta question whether there will be any arrests because arrests mean public court documents. They gotta figure out a way to hang this on one or two people without exposing the whole network.

      1. ” sending the money raised for Ukraine over to Ukraine where it was used to buy FTX crypto tokens and that money was being laundered back into the Democratic Party through FTX.”

        Oh FRICK. That sounds like another impeachable offense. I think in 2024 we’re going to have either Trump or DeSantis, and I suspect both of them will do a Twitter-style rightsizing on the DoJ-FBI. Then we’ll see some fireworks.

        Meanwhile maybe the next round of billions will go to actual aid.

        1. actual aid

          You can’t give “actual aid” to the most corrupt government in Europe. If we keep sending them guns, they will all eventually be dead.

          I like Ron, but I hope he is not stupid enough to fracture his own party.

          1. I don’t think the laundered FTX money went for guns. Didn’t the gun money go straight to Raytheon and actual guns went to Ukraine? It would have been easier to launder the “aid” money.

    6. My guess is some sort of slap on the wrist plea deal. They can’t let this go to court and risk this thing spiraling out of control in discovery. I am pretty sure Dork Boy Man Tits has already been told he is going to take the fall for this and keep his mouth shut.

      1. It sounds like Mommy and Daddy took some of the munnies to buy swank property for themselves. Laundering, maybe?

    9. Grayscale and Genesis are both owned by Digital Currency Group.

      https://dcg.co/

      Maybe I am missing something for but I don’t see links anywhere on this page that tell you who actually runs this operation.

      1. During the world cup I see in stadium/sideline ads for “crypto dot com”. Are they another exchange? Those ads are not cheap.

    10. https://coingeek.com/bitcoin-history-part-3-the-raspberry-revolt-proof-of-hat-and-bitcoin-cash/

      This is long and complicated but it dissects how DCG is intertwined with blockstream that was an Epstein funded project at MIT.

      “ So, with nearly everyone “bought off” and all of the Western hemisphere developers redesigning bitcoin to work specifically for corporate patented side chains and immutable human trafficking business, the scaling debate was fizzling out. ”

      https://medium.com/coinmonks/lightning-network-the-trojan-horse-of-the-crypt-industry-f26e3cc8cd46

      This article is a must read for any crypto cult members who haven’t figured out yet that crypto is a project of the financier cartel that runs the current financial/banking system.

      Check out the link on the DCG webpage to their “portfolio”. I took the time to look through it. DCG looks kinda like just another giant money laundering operation similar to FTX. Definitely not saying anything like that would even be possible but it just kinda looks a lot like it.

    11. Gemini exchange caught up in FTX fiasco.

      https://nypost.com/2022/11/17/winklevoss-twins-gemini-crypto-exchange-caught-up-in-ftx-meltdown/

      Gemini top lawyer moves to Opendoor.

      https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/opendoor-hires-winklevoss-twins-backed-crypto-firms-top-lawyer

      This article must go into the HBB time capsule

      https://investorplace.com/2021/01/3-reasons-invite-opendoor-stock-your-portfolio/

      Why do you think I’ve been pounding the table on cryptocurrencies? …At the center of this innovation is the blockchain, a system that fosters immutable trust in a decentralized ecosystem… Similarly, what virtual currencies did for finance and business transactions, Opendoor can do for the staid real estate market.

      Fosters Immutable trust in a decentralized ecosystem. It’s like a word salad from Deepak Chopra.

  6. ‘Nearly a year later, Musawwir said, she has not received a dime from the program. The amount she owes the bank, meanwhile, has nearly doubled. ‘If I don’t get the help that this program is promising, I’m really screwed’

    Better get some boxes Sunya.

  7. ‘Most of the buyers were Chinese citizens who believed California real estate was a safe investment, and some of them lost their life savings’

    Click!

    2. I’ve said before that a smart Chinese person wouldn’t bother with California. They should be buying up dozens of ramshackle properties in the Rust Belt or the South — anyplace with water and decent soil.

      1. The benefit of California is there are dozens of areas you can get by speaking Mandarin or Cantonese. You don’t need to know English to live in California.

        Alabama? Indiana? Harder to find a large diaspora.

  10. “Months before the bank posted a foreclosure warning on the front door of the home that Sunya Musawwir has owned for 30 years, the D.C. government told her they would take care of everything: late penalties, fees, whatever it cost to bring her up to date on her mortgage.

    “The D.C. government” = taxpayers. When did it become the responsibility of taxpayers to take care of freeloaders and deadbeats? Oh, right: Bolshevism.

  11. ‘If I don’t get the help that this program is promising, I’m really screwed,’ Musawwir said.”

    Sounds like your deadbeat ways are catching up with you, Sunya.

  12. “‘The main cause of that is that sellers are holding on to what their neighbors got six or eight months ago,’ said Ryan Greenblatt, broker associate with Lang Realty in Boca Raton.

    You stick to yer guns, greedheads. It’s just a gully…the REIC shills in the MSM will be promising a Spring Miracle Revival in no time, so Suzanne will most assuredly be bringing a starry-eyed couple willing to pay yer full wish price. Don’t give it away!

  13. Most of the buyers were Chinese citizens who believed California real estate was a safe investment, and some of them lost their life savings, prosecutors said.

    Chinese embezzlers getting defrauded. Cue world’s tiniest violin. No honest Chinese citizen would go from a Commie-ruled country to a Commie-ruled state.

  14. “Official property records show that Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, his parents, and top executives at the failed cryptocurrency exchange have purchased at least 19 properties worth nearly $121 million in the Bahamas. over the past two years.

    The best thing about this fiasco is that anyone who would “invest” in a company run by a Democrat-Bolshevik mega-donor is a moral bankrupt on par with SBF himself. Seeing them get taken to the cleaners by one of their own is heart-warming. The FTX debacle should also enlighten millions of sheeple as to the moral degenerates and criminals who bankroll the Democratic Party, and the impunity they enjoy from our corrupt DoJ and captured, worthless regulators.

  15. RBA warns Aussie cucks who elected globalist Quislings that they’re about to get what they voted for, good & hard.

    RBA boss Philip Lowe warns variable costs could shock consumers

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/rba-boss-philip-lowe-warns-variable-costs-could-shock-consumers/news-story/58291607088e475b2ed975ad7e1291c7

    The Reserve Bank has warned Australians should strap in for prices to go on a wild ride, with more shocks to further increase the cost of living.

  17. “The bonds show that this property, which was purchased by one of the units of FTX, was to be used as ‘accommodation for key employees’ of the company. Reuters was unable to determine who lived in the apartments.”

    Isn’t Effective Altruism in action a beautiful thing to behold?

    “Documentation for another home with beach access in Old Fort Bay—a gated community once home to a British colonial fort built in the 18th century to protect against pirates—shows Bankman Fried’s parents and Stanford law professors Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried as signatories.”

    The protection against pirates must no longer be effective.

      1. ‘Bankman-Fried himself once described effective altruism as a way to, “get filthy rich, for charity’s sake,” according to Axios.’

        Interesting philosophy, indeed!

  18. A reader sent these in:

    The four horsemen of the apocalypse

    https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1594450290144673799

    Tweet
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    Stephen Punwasi 📉🎄🎅🏼🐈
    @StephenPunwasi
    🇨🇦 isn’t 🇺🇸 when it comes to mortgages. It’s much worse. Lenders are no longer collecting enough interest on some loans, they’re adding it to the principal. People aren’t paying off a mortgage, they’re growing their debt. Canezuela, as @AlessioUrban would say.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1594708808240070656

    HOUSING COLLAPSE: Pending Home Sales Post Largest Drop Ever in October (-40%) as Deal Cancellations, Price Cuts Hit Record High – Redfin

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1594744147893977088

    Was this the equivalent of the Dutch tulip mania bubble from 1634-1637? Or is the crypto market different? Don’t hate the question, just asking.Would you agree that 99% of altcoins are nothing more than the modern version of tulips?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1594646816443846657

    Steve Saretsky

    Nearly every borrower who took out a fixed payment variable mortgage between May 2020 and July 2022 now owes more in interest than their monthly fixed payment.

    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1594854040504266753

    Ben Rabidoux

    Another reminder that Cdn banks are masterful at kicking the can down the road. Now allowing negative amortization for existing borrowers–> Major mortgage lenders let borrowers shift unpaid interest onto principal to cope with rising costs

    https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1594729866640900098

    finally some good news, wonder how many bought houses?
    Quote Tweet
    Lisa Abramowicz

    Mass tech layoffs have left hundreds of workers living in the US on temporary visas with little time to find another job, or they’ll have to leave the country. bloomberg

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1594848696226975744

    Swedish home prices have plunged -15% YTD ~ similar to 2008
    This helps show that the global 2020-21 boom is now in a bust; & it’s rippling
    I don’t believe Swedish home prices will be the only one to see such large reversions (esp. as central banks are still tightening + lags)

    https://twitter.com/RadicalAdem/status/1594829494644351006

    Kira Mason
    @kmasonrealtor
    It’s amazing to me the degree to which prices are dropping in Philly, even with inventory as low as it is. Demand is dead. When inventory increases after the holidays, as it always does, it’s going to be very rough on sellers.

    https://twitter.com/kmasonrealtor/status/1594811329784815631

    For affordability to come back to 2020 at current interest rates, housing prices have to decline more than 40% to $250k. If this were to happen, anyone who bought a house since 2012 would be underwater on their initial purchase.

    https://twitter.com/LauraScharr/status/1594774320206807041

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    I suspect you’d only need half that retrenchment to make like miserable for Airbnb & VRBO “jocks,” as I call them.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1594785581271289856

    Not looking good in the steal homes from families business

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1594786840699146263

    FED’S DALY: I AM ON THE HAWKISH SIDE OF FED POLICYMAKER SPECTRUM.

    https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1594783804920631313

    FED’S DALY: IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT INFLATION HAS PEAKED AND IS BEGINNING TO COOL OFF.

    https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1594783841314607110

    Buyers remorse

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1594688527836631052

    Right as the housing market was rolling over in 2019, the government injected $7t in debt into the system inflating all asset prices. The response was a historic lack of supply and historic demand. The response was to OVER produce everything. Housing is going to be a calamity

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1594761730768646144

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Valid points. But builders only have so long. As detailed in today’s #DailyFeather @Quillintel more than 70% of builders reduced net pricing in October. The pressure will become immense for those who bought w/today’ version of a subprime mortgages, modern day vacation landlords.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1594831558808150032

    Everyone focused on the rate-hike cycle while the Fed continues to shrink its holdings of Treasury bonds and notes at the steepest pace in history. $40b just last week.

    https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1594762568601464832

    Global equities are hardly down 20% YTD and rates are still raising. Earnings recession didn’t even start yet. The final bottom in equities is far far below. In the meantime this off the lows bounce is still developing. Don’t miss the exit.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1594750720330588160

    Mark Calabria

    Reminder much credit reporting was suspended during COVID, one result has been FICO inflation, so when discussing loan credit quality, please adjust accordingly

    https://twitter.com/MarkCalabria/status/1594705556664713216

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Twitter cut 75%+ of their employees and Meta cut 11,000 jobs overnight. Meanwhile, both companies run just as well as they did before. Now imagine the rest of the tech sector and combine this with the worst bubble since 2001. Mass layoffs in tech are on the way.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1594567072096321536

    The Kobeissi Letter

    BREAKING: Total market cap lost in crypto hits $2.3 trillion as selling continues. The collapse of FTX was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The damage in investor confidence that SBF and FTX have created will cost trillions. FTX is the biggest case of fraud in history.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1594799928525656065

    The next Ponzi scheme to go full FTX mode:

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1594798127852441601

    Tesla and Amazon are almost 40% of Consumer Discretionary. For my prediction to be correct, a lot of sh*t has to break, sooner than later, led by these stocks.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1594713992202956801

    Amazon’s meltdown is a manifestation of the white collar recession. It peaked over a year ago, with five lower highs.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1594712845056630789

    This city isn’t mincing words

    https://twitter.com/ALROnHousing/status/1594507230312701953

    Tesla is down 59.1% from its peak last November, its 2nd largest drawdown to date. Largest was the 60.6% decline in Feb-Mar 2020.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1594821403408310283

    The Used Car Bubble is bursting…

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1594008218937610240

    Total Crypto market value…
    2013: $10.6 billion
    2014: $5.5 billion
    2015: $7.0 billion
    2016: $17.5 billion
    2017: $590 billion
    2018: $128 billion
    2019: $190 billion
    2020: $768 billion
    2021: $2.26 trillion
    2022 YTD: $833 billion

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1593986413665607680

    Bitcoin’s 77% drawdown over the last year is its largest since 2017-18 and at 364 days is now the 2nd longest, trailing only the 2013-15 decline of 410 days.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1593963553676881922

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    Welcome to Mortgage Renewal Hell
    I posted before about Private Mortgage Lenders just asking for their money back: $70K Second Mortgage…. 30 days to find a way to pay it back or Power of Sale Foreclosure Starts
    Now let me tell you about the Institutional B Lender Renewals

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1593727595908038662

    CarDealershipGuy

    Carvana stock is now down 97% this year and just hit a new *all-time* low.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1594830249304498195

    FTX Sponsorship Status:
    Mercedes – Canceled
    ICC – Canceled
    Miami Heat Arena – Canceled
    Tom Brady – Canceled
    Steph Curry – Canceled
    FTX Field CA – Canceled
    MLB – Canceled
    Miami Dade County – Canceled
    Furia & TSM eSports – Canceled
    US Congress, SEC & CFTC – Still going strong

    https://twitter.com/brucefenton/status/1594677326763130892

    I remember at a crypto dinner in Miami and everyone was talking $100k. I said what if it doesn’t, whats plan B? Whats the ext plan?
    Someone replied, ” Who invited this guy?” and everyone laughed.

    https://twitter.com/AsennaWealth/status/1538080347077742592

    Lyn Alden

    Federal debt as a percentage of GDP was sustainable as long as interest rates kept going down structurally. Now it gets awkward.

    https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1594528514258223105

    Lyn Alden
    @LynAldenContact
    This is what the FTX/Alameda group did, basically:
    Replying to @anilsaidso and @dergigi
    Now imagine if companies that issued airline points, actually believed it themselves (they don’t), and thus used their own points as collateral for loans unironically.

    https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1594563953019043841

    1. “Everyone focused on the rate-hike cycle while the Fed continues to shrink its holdings of Treasury bonds and notes at the steepest pace in history. $40b just last week.”

      I’m impressed they are staying the course on Quantitative Tightening against a barrage of political attacks.

      1. I agree, surprised and glad. What blows me away is, the last two houses I bought, 1993 and 2000 were both around 7.5%. I never complained….didn’t have a problem, bought well within my means. Why is everyone kissing their minds?

        1. Why is everyone

          You are probably looking forward to the end of your mortgage and more financial freedom. “Everyone” put all their hopes on the house, and cheap loans from the government, to make them rich. They feel betrayed.

        3. go look up the price of that house currently. Now look at the payment at 7% of that price. And realize that wages have gone nowhere in 50 years. At even these moderate rates, prices have to come WAY down.

          I bought a house in 94 too. I bought it for 150k, sold it for 260k in 02 and the last time it sold (like late teens) was 600k……………………………

  20. I predicted Nov. 22 as cross over day but I was off a week. According to U.S. DebtClock we are about 5 days away from becoming a debtor nation.
    Todays numbers:
    Assest per citizen $518,529
    Liabilities per citizen $518,062

  22. Are lockdowns effective for containing a pandemic? I guess we’ll have to trust communist leaders in China and California on that.

    1. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus pandemic
      China lockdowns reach record level as coronavirus cases soar
      Country sticks to zero-Covid policy, with almost 28,000 new infections reported
      People queue at a Covid testing station in Beijing. The capital is one of several Chinese cities where cases are rising rapidly
      Ryan McMorrow in Beijing, Sun Yu in New York and Gloria Li, Hudson Lockett and Primrose Riordan in Hong Kong 6 hours ago

      Covid-19 cases in China are spiralling towards record highs, forcing officials to again lock down large swaths of the country.

      The world’s second-biggest economy reported almost 28,000 new Covid cases on Tuesday, with outbreaks in Beijing, the southern manufacturing hub of Guangzhou and the southwestern metropolis of Chongqing continuing to grow.

      The country’s battle to suppress the virus has battered China’s economy, disrupting global supply chains and threatening world growth.

      Almost three years after Covid first hit the city of Wuhan, vaccination rates among vulnerable sections of China’s population lag those in many rich countries, while its continued use of lockdowns as a primary method of disease control has made it an international outlier.

      Officials in Beijing shut most non-essential businesses in the city’s largest district, Chaoyang, which has a population of 3.4mn, and have closed restaurants and other entertainment venues in much of the city, while telling residents to work from home.

      “China is seeing a record level of lockdowns,” said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura. “It’s even a bit worse than during the [spring] Shanghai lockdown because so many cities are partially locked down.”

      The bank estimates Covid restrictions have hit areas responsible for one-fifth of China’s gross domestic product.
      …

      1. 10-year Treasury yield drops below 3.8% amid global growth concerns
        Provided by Dow Jones
        Nov 22, 2022 6:50 AM PST
        By Vivien Lou Chen and Jamie Chisholm

        Bond yields fell on Tuesday as traders worried that COVID-19 restrictions in China may further damage global economic growth.

        Treasury yields edged lower as additional COVID-19 lockdowns in China were seen as increasing the chances of a global economic slowdown. Market sentiment was described by analysts as fragile, given the uncertainty over whether China would make a U-turn on its reopening plans. Read: China announces first COVID deaths in months and unveils restrictions in Beijing and Guangzhou

        The spread between the U.S. 2- and 10-year yields was around minus 73 basis points, one of its most inverted levels in more than 40 years and a sign that some say points to an inevitable recession.

        There are no major U.S. economic releases on Tuesday. However, Kansas City Fed President Esther George is due to speak at 2:15 p.m.

        Markets are pricing in a 76% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 50 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% on Dec. 14, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The central bank is mostly expected to take its fed-funds rate target to at least 4.75% to 5% by March.

        What analysts are saying

        “In terms of what’s coming out of China, there are growing concerns among investors that there’ll be a return to lockdowns following the weekend news that they’d had their first Covid death in six months,” said a team at Deutsche Bank. The latest developments have “all served to dampen the speculation of recent weeks that China might be moving gradually away from its zero-Covid strategy.”

        -Vivien Lou Chen
        …
        https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20221122246/10-year-treasury-yield-drops-below-38-amid-global-growth-concerns

  23. “The final bottom in equities is far far below. In the meantime this off the lows bounce is still developing. Don’t miss the exit.”

    Is now a good time to sell the rally?

    1. Markets
      Published November 21, 2022 11:17am EST
      Bear market is not over yet, and will continue in 2023, Goldman Sachs warns
      Goldman Sachs strategists warn bear market ‘is not over’
      By Megan Henney FOXBusiness

      Investors hoping to see a brighter 2023 for the U.S. stock market may be out of luck, according to Goldman Sachs strategists, who anticipate that a recent relief rally for equities will soon come to an end. 

      In an analyst note on Monday, strategists including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell predicted the bear market will continue into 2023, with the S&P finishing the year at 4,000 index points – up just 0.9% from Friday’s close. 

      “The bear market is not over, in our view,” they wrote. “The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached. We would expect lower valuations (consistent with recessionary outcomes), a trough in the momentum of growth deterioration, and a peak in interest rates before a sustained recovery begins.”

      The analyst notes come after softer-than-expected inflation data fueled the biggest market rally in two years, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average popping 1,200 points and the S&P 500 jumping 5%. Investors were buoyed by the government report – which showed that the consumer price index climbed 7.7% in October, the slowest annual pace since January – on hopes that it could mean a more dovish Federal Reserve in coming months. 

      ECONOMIC INDEX FLASHES MAJOR RECESSION WARNING SIGN
      US stock market

      Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 10, 2022 in New York City. ((Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images) / Getty Images)

      The rebound came after months of volatility for the markets on fears of an impending recession, higher interest rates and painfully high inflation. 

      The Goldman strategists, however, noted the rebound is “not the first we have seen in this bear market.” 

      In fact, Oppenheimer in September authored an analyst note suggesting that stocks had not yet hit bottom; shortly after that, the S&P touched a fresh low for the year.

      DEMOCRATS SLAM ‘DANGEROUS’ FED RATE HIKES, WARNING OF WIDESPREAD JOB LOSSES
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bear-market-not-over-will-continue-2023-goldman-sachs-warns

  24. Someone sent me this article on housing prices, and I have no idea wtf it means (copy and pasted as it was a PDF file).

    ZACKS November 22, 2022
    John Blank
    I wanted to offer up a primer on a key investing topic: U.S. Housing Prices.
    Are you worried about a “Boom-Bust” situation, affecting your home’s value?
    This U.S. housing price correction isn’t one-size-fits-all.
    A “Boom-Bust” is the best way to describe just a few markets (Yes. Phoenix AZ is here).
    Many, many metro and state markets remain tight; at this moment in time (Nov. 2022).
    Want to read the best-stated stabilizing factors, to U.S. housing market prices?
    This time around…
    These carefully word statements came from Austin, TX based Keller Williams Chief
    Economist Ruben Gonzalez, on November 2 nd , 2022.
    a.    Most homeowners have mortgage rates that are half of the current 30-year rate and
    as a result listings have slowed along with sales.
    b.    Homeowners’ equity levels are high because of the rapid appreciation,
    and mortgage default rates remain near all-time lows as markets cool.
    c.     As things stand, the housing market appears well positioned to weather slower
    activity as we move into 2023.
    d.    But the U.S. is unlikely to see any improvement until we are in an economic
    environment that will accommodate lower or, at minimum, more stable mortgage rates.
    Keller Williams was founded in 1982. It claims to be the largest real estate franchise by
    number of agents and sales volume for 2018 and 2019. It is operated by a holding
    company named KWx which was formed in 2020.
    Need more convincing?
    The following All-Transactions Home Price Indices are ordered by absolute index levels,
    starting with the highest number: which is (to no surprise) the state of California.

    2

    However, now consider these state’s compound annual growth rates (CAGR), starting
    with the last house price peak in Q3-2006 to the present. The CAGRs from 2006 to
    2022 show the total opposite ranking: Texas is tops with 5.45% CAGR in house prices.
    California shows only +2.26% CAGR in home price appreciation over the last 16 years.
    In turn, while Texas was strongest the last 16 years (+5.45% CAGR), Texas housing
    prices are just catching up to what the U.S. saw the last 42 years (+4.43% CAGR).
    All-Transactions Home Price Index

    Value (1980 = 100)

    State Q3-06 Q2-22 CAGR (2006-2022) CAGR (1980-2022)
    California 646.77 924.45 2.26% 5.44%
    Florida 476.55 733.88 2.74% 4.86%
    USA 375.57 617.89 3.16% 4.43%
    Phoenix AZ 290.61 496.5 3.40% 4.95%
    Texas 211.39 493.93 5.45% 3.88%
    Source: Zacks calculations, done with St. Louis Fed FRED data, Nov. 6 th , 2022
    Inspect the five FRED All-Transactions Home Price Index series together (below):

    3

    To see this U.S. housing price correction correctly.
    First: Keep all of these FRED tables & charts, with detailed CAGR calculations in hand.
    Second: Turn to the carefully-crafted comments of true U.S. housing experts.
    Finally, combine them.
    Verify and balance the expert statements — with the best available data.
    To show you how you can get scared by graphs, using the latest housing data.
    Consider the following exercise.
    First, I show you first the striking rise of Housing Inventory in the much-touted
    metro Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ area.

  25. Why does the MSM keep mischaracterizing the FTX implosion as a “run on the bank”? They weren’t a bank, but rather an exchange with fiduciary responsibility to protect customer assets.

    1. The Financial Times
      FTX Trading Ltd
      Bankman-Fried ran FTX as personal fiefdom, court hears
      ‘Substantial amounts of money’ spent on items such as vacation homes in Bahamas, bankruptcy lawyer testifies
      Tabby Kinder in San Francisco 10 minutes ago

      FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried ran the cryptocurrency exchange as his “personal fiefdom” before its implosion, according to a lawyer working on the bankruptcy, with “substantial amounts of money” spent on items unrelated to the business such as vacation homes in the Bahamas.

      “We have witnessed one of the most abrupt and difficult collapses in the history of corporate America,” James Bromley of Sullivan & Cromwell told a US court on Tuesday. He added that bankruptcy proceedings had “allowed everyone for the first time to see under the covers and recognise the emperor had no clothes”.

      FTX filed for US bankruptcy protection on November 11 as its customers fled and executives discovered billions of dollars in missing funds, exacerbating turmoil in cryptocurrency markets.

      The team of lawyers charged with winding down FTX is attempting to identify a complex web of assets in order to repay creditors. The case has been marked by allegations of misconduct and major governance failures, as well as a jurisdictional dispute between the US and the Bahamas, where FTX’s small inner circle ran the business.

      According to the company, FTX’s overall valuation peaked at $40bn — $32bn for its international business and $8bn for its US operations based on funds raised from venture capital investors.

      Bromley said the bankruptcy team had found that “substantial funds” were transferred from the exchange to Bankman-Fried’s crypto hedge fund Alameda Research, and “substantial amounts of money were spent on things not related to the business”.

      This included around $300mn of real estate in the Bahamas that were “homes and vacation properties used by the senior executives” of FTX, he said.

      The Alameda hedge fund also appeared to have used FTX funds to make billions of dollars of illiquid venture investments in funds such as Sequoia Capital and companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Boring Company.

      FTX filed for bankruptcy protection following an “effective run on the bank”, Bromley said, after rival crypto exchange Binance moved to liquidate its FTT tokens, the cryptocurrency issued by FTX. The token lost 80 per cent of its value in two days, tumbling from a peak of $9.6bn in total market value to just $422mn.
      …

        1. Maybe they managed to freeze the withdrawals before the vault was completely empty and $442M is the remaining assets, before paying any debts. $442M will be distributed to major creditors. Retail investors will likely walk away with $0, as will the teachers in Ontario.

          1. $442M will be distributed to major creditors.

            What’s in this “vault” you speak of, actual dollars or some kind of electronic ether credits? Crypto credits seem to be confused with actual money in these stories. Ironically, Vault and Crypt are rather interchangeable terms.

          2. I honestly don’t know. From what I understand, investors all of types were sending real dollars to FTX. I don’t know if it went to bitcoins or tokens or whatever, but evidently there were some dollars left which had not yet been stolen, or converted to tokens, or laundered through Ukraine. I’ve tried to listen to the token talk, but it’s all made up, sort of like the “tech talk” in Star Trek.

    2. “Why does the MSM keep mischaracterizing the FTX implosion as a “run on the bank”? They weren’t a bank”

      Because FTX WAS a bank — that is, a pre-Depression/pre-FDIC bank. The type of bank that fails when all the customers simultaneously panic and try to withdraw their funds at the same time (run on the bank).

      There are no runs on modern banks because customers don’t panic; they just wait for FDIC (gov) to print money for them. But FTX has no FDIC, making it vulnerable to a panic and bank run, just like in the 1930s. That’s exactly what happened here.

        1. “A ‘bank’ without internal controls. Wa can go wrong?”

          That sounds perfect for people who want to pursue investment opportunities without any pesky regulators getting in the way.

      2. Because FTX WAS a bank — that is, a pre-Depression/pre-FDIC bank.

        Quite the study in imaginary coin mania. How could the coins not still be there? They may be worthless, but bring out the coins!

      3. I respectfully disagree. Nobody put a gun to SBF’s head and forced him to use FTX customer funds to plug holes in his sometime-girlfriend’s company’s balance sheet. If a bank did something like that, regulators would shut them down.

        1. Cryptocurrency
          Updated on November 20, 2022 7:36pm EST
          Who is Caroline Ellison and how did she end up at center of FTX collapse?
          Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison is facing scrutiny for her connection to the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX crypto exchange. 
          …
          Cryptocurrency prices were near all-time highs in the fall of 2021, but in early 2022, the digital currencies were plummeting and many investment and lending firms in the sector were facing financial pressure. 

          By early November of this year, concerning reports about the financial health of both Alameda and FTX were mounting. Rival crypto exchange Binance scuttled a tentative plan to acquire FTX after due diligence revealed what Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao called a “chaotic” balance sheet in an interview with Fox Business’s Susan Li.

          The interconnected relationship between the two firms ultimately led to their collapse, as FTX lent billions of dollars of customer funds from the exchange to Alameda in an effort to shore up the firm’s finances. When unnerved investors went to withdraw funds from FTX, it was unable to fulfill those requests and spiraled into insolvency.

          During a video meeting earlier this month before the firm and FTX filed for bankruptcy, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ellison informed Alameda staff about FTX using customers’ funds to help Alameda meet its liabilities, and added that she, Bankman-Fried, and other members of the firms’ leadership were aware of the decision.

          Fox Business’s Kayla Bailey and Aislinn Murphy contributed to this report.
          …
          https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/who-caroline-ellison-how-did-she-end-up-center-ftx-collapse

        2. The Financial Times
          FTX Trading Ltd
          Bankman-Fried issues mea culpa in letter to former FTX employees
          Ex-billionaire writes to his ‘family’ and deeply regrets his ‘oversight failure’
          In the letter, Sam Bankman-Fried claimed he ‘did not realise the full extent of the margin position’
          Joshua Oliver in London 5 hours ago

          Sam Bankman-Fried has told former FTX employees that excessive borrowing by his own trading firm Alameda Research was responsible for FTX’s demise, insisting he was unaware of the margin positions taken by the traders.

          In a letter to former employees, the FTX founder wrote that he “did not realise the full extent of the margin position, nor did I realise the magnitude of the risk posed by a hyper-correlated crash”.

          FTX typically allowed clients to borrow money in order to amp up their bets on cryptocurrencies. But that practice allowed Alameda to take extra-large positions, which Bankman-Fried claimed he failed to monitor.

          According to the letter, seen by the Financial Times, Alameda entered the crypto crash this spring having borrowed $2bn from FTX, which was backed by what it claimed was $60bn in collateral. But by the time Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency empire was collapsing, that borrowing had risen to $8bn and was backed by assets valued at only $9bn.

          “I deeply regret my oversight failure . . . I lost track of the most important things in the commotion of company growth,” Bankman-Fried wrote.

          The letter sent to employees of his companies gives the most detailed account yet by Bankman-Fried for how FTX collapsed from one of the best-known names in digital assets into bankruptcy in less than two weeks.

          Earlier on Tuesday, lawyers for FTX’s new managers lambasted Bankman-Fried’s management of the crypto conglomerate, telling a US bankruptcy court in Delaware that the former billionaire ran his company as a “personal fiefdom” and that the group spent “substantial amounts of money” on items unrelated to the business such as vacation homes in the Bahamas. Previous bankruptcy filings have pointed to “misuse of customer funds”.
          …

      1. I have perhaps the dumbest question I ever thought of:

        Why do people expect to grow wealthy by converting real money (e.g. dollars) into imaginary money (i.e. cryptocurrency)?

        In full disclosure, I didn’t study physicS at MIT, so please excuse my ignorance.

        1. Why do people expect to grow wealthy by converting real money (e.g. dollars) into imaginary money (i.e. cryptocurrency)?

          It’s money laundering.

  26. “The Covid mRNA vaccine has likely played a significant role or been a primary cause of unexpected cardiac arrests, heart attacks, strokes, cardiac arrhythmias, and heart failure since 2021…”

    Cardiologists Come to the Same Conclusion Regarding COVID Jab Side Effects

    John Leake
    Dr. Peter A. McCullough
    Nov 20 2022

    Until the British cardiologist, Dr. Aseem Malhotra, expressed grave concern about the safety of Covid mRNA vaccines, he was one of the most celebrated doctors in Britain. In 2016 he was named in the Sunday Times Debrett’s list as one of the most influential people in science and medicine in the UK in a list that included Professor Stephen Hawking. His total Altmetric score (measure of impact and reach) of his medical journal publications since 2013 is over 10,000 making it one of the highest in the World for a clinical doctor during this period.

    In the early days of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Britain, he advocated the injections for the general public. However, in July of 2021, he experienced a terrible personal loss that caused him to reevaluate the shots—namely, the sudden and unexpected death of his 73-year-old father. His father’s death made no sense to him because he knew from his own examination that his father’s general and cardiac health were excellent.

    The more Dr. Malhotra looked into it, the more he felt the same concern about the safety of the mRNA vaccines that Dr. Peter McCullough had felt since the spring of 2021. The alarming incidence of sudden, unexpected deaths during the latter half of 2021 and the first eight months of 2022—especially among the young and fit—strengthened his grave concern and suspicion.

    In September of 2022,—after a thorough investigation of the growing volume of data—he came to his conclusion:

    The Covid mRNA vaccine has likely played a significant role or been a primary cause of unexpected cardiac arrests, heart attacks, strokes, cardiac arrhythmias, and heart failure since 2021 until proven otherwise.

    His conclusion, including his precise verbal formulation of it, was identical to the conclusion drawn by Dr. Peter McCullough. Though the two doctors ultimately established contact to compare notes, they reached their conclusions based on their own, independent inquiries, before they spoke with each other.

    Recently the Vaccine Safety Research Foundation produced Until Proven Otherwise— a short video documentary about the corroborating findings of these two leading cardiologists. I believe it is no exaggeration to say that the gripping, four-minute video is a MUST SEE for everyone. Please share it with your family and friends.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/cardiologists-come-to-the-same-conclusion-regarding-covid-jab-side-effects_4874934.html

    1. Anthony Fauci Urges Americans to Get COVID Tests Before Thanksgiving: ‘Everybody Should Be Vaccinated’

      HANNAH BLEAU
      22 Nov 2022

      Dr. Anthony Fauci is urging Americans to get tested for the Chinese coronavirus prior to attending Thanksgiving gatherings, adding that “everybody” should not only be vaccinated but boosted as well.

      Fauci spoke on Tuesday for his last White House press briefing before stepping down and ended his stint by declaring that “everybody” should be at least triple jabbed, receiving the regular vaccine series as well as a booster shot.

      “First of all, everybody should be vaccinated and boosted with flu and with COVID ,” he began. “Whether or not you wear a mask — or another thing we shouldn’t underestimate is testing.”

      Fauci then urged Americans to get tested the day before attending holiday gatherings, including Thanksgiving, which is two days away.

      1. I just looked at the worldometers website. The US is down to 11,000 cases a day. Yet when I go out, I still see people all masked up, and I expect they will be for the rest of their lives. I truly feel pity for them.

        1. “I truly feel pity for them.”

          You’re too kind. These were the people who wanted us segregated, fired, and denied medical care.

          I’d prefer the vaccine do it’s worst.

          1. I’d prefer…

            Perhaps you have a cold, black heart. Nobody prefers to be weak and vulnerable to what ever tales are told them. They are handicapped.

          2. This is to BlueSkye. You posted a great quote a few days ago:

            “You can’t cheat an honest man. Never give a sucker an even break or smarten up a chump.”

            I’m on the fence on this. Do stupid people deserve what they get or should we feel pity? Today you seem to be advocating pity. Do some of these people deserve their vax injuries? Were they being greedy and dishonest or were they merely ignorant and deserve a break? What say you?

            P.S. This isn’t intended as a hit on you, I’m just curious about your thoughts on it since you posted the quote above recently.

          3. You can’t cheat an honest man.

            I would like to be the honest man, not the one who makes their living by fraud as in the case of this quote. I am by no means a fantastic success, it’s just what I would like to be. I have friends, family and loved ones who took a wrong turn somewhere and proceeded to dark places. I do feel sorry for them, but not responsible. If their parasitic nature is directed toward me I try to erect high barriers, yet I wish them no punishment, only failure.

            Until my own judgement day comes, I remain a bit of a smart ass and adventurer.

            people deserve their vax injuries?

            Nobody I know of. Do I? I got it to see my lover in Canada. Those who forced others to take it out of power lust, well…

  28. Klaus isn’t going to let Brazilians take their country back:

    Brazilians Resist As Child Services Moves To Take Children Away From Election Protesters.

    See link below.

      1. If you tried to take my kids away because of a protest…………..lemme tell you, it would on like donkey kong. There would be no turning back from that.

  29. What a shame the fake news Steele dossier machine which includes CBS News who this week came to the conclusion that Hunter Biden’s laptop “appears genuine” wouldn’t allow Tommy Chong ‘s prediction to come true.

    Tommy Chong thinks Trump will go down as the greatest POTUS ever some strong weed he’s smoking

    5 years ago

    https://youtu.be/ljgZ2TXQvHg

  30. ‘To be honest, you’re sleeping right there and you can’t think of it as if it’s your house’

    It’s not yer shack truck driver.

  31. ‘If you are not getting showings in about three or four weeks, then it’s time to have a conversation’

    Wa happened to my shortage Boc Raton?

  32. ‘Boise home prices are down 7.1% since its 2022 peak, and down 4.3% on a year-over-year basis’

    More YOY declines. Tomorrow I’ve got a video with YOY surprise for Toronto.

  33. Don’t give it away!

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8009-Tennyson-Dr_Tallahassee_FL_32309_M67701-57801

    Date Event Price Price/Sq Ft Source
    10/25/2022 Price Changed $595,000 $218 BeachesMLSFlex
    10/24/2022 Price Changed $595,000 $218 Tallahassee
    06/24/2022 Price Changed $650,000 $238 Tallahassee
    06/23/2022 Price Changed $650,000 $238 BeachesMLSFlex
    06/10/2022 Listed $750,000 $274 Tallahassee
    04/13/2022 Listed $750,000 $274 BeachesMLSFlex
    01/01/1989 Sold $38,500 $14 Public Record

  35. Never mind and 🖕. Week-old local biotech job posting for Director, Intellectual Property:

    COVID-19 VACCINATION REQUIREMENT

    Where permitted, the Company requires all employees to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as a condition of employment unless an exemption or accommodation is available and approved. Being fully vaccinated means that an individual is at least two weeks past their final dose of an authorized COVID-19 vaccine regimen and may include the individual obtaining vaccination boosters at certain intervals. Where permitted, as a condition of employment, final candidates will be required to provide proof of their COVID-19 vaccination unless an exemption or accommodation is available and approved. View the candidate COVID-19 vaccination policy webpage for information about the exemption or accommodation process for final candidates.

      1. Witnessing genocide in real-time, I’ve come to realize that I don’t want to work for organizations that most need and can afford my services.

    2. Where permitted, the Company requires all employees to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as a condition of employment

      There is clearly no logical reason to require this. It won’t stop the spread amongst employees, as even Pfizer has admitted. So why?

      There are a few possible explanations:
      -They are idiots
      -Someone secretly is telling them to do this or else (as in no gooberment contracts?)
      -They just want to harm people.

      1. – They see themselves as an important part of the Private/Public Partnership, where they do the will of the Party without being forced to.

  36. Tesla Stock On Track For Its Worst Year Ever As Elon Musk’s EV Giant Faces 4 Big Headwinds
    ED CARSON 04:46 PM ET 11/22/2022

    Tesla (TSLA) has been a monster stock over much of its history, especially from its stratospheric run from mid-2019 to late 2021. But in 2022, Tesla stock has been a big loser, on track to plunge nearly 52% as of Nov. 22.

    That would easily surpass 2016’s 11% fall, the only other annual decline since Tesla stock came public in 2010. The sell-off has intensified, with the EV giant losing nearly half its value in just the past two months. On Monday, TSLA stock skidded 6.8% to a fresh two-year low, the S&P 500’s worst performer for the session.

    Here are some major headwinds facing TSLA stock, from Elon Musk’s “Twitter circus” to Tesla demand concerns.
    …
    https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-stock-on-track-for-worst-year-ever-elon-musk-ev-giant-faces-4-big-headwinds/

    1. Business
      Fears of crypto contagion are growing as another company’s finances wobble
      Updated November 22, 2022 3:56 PM ET
      David Gura

      In this photo illustration, the FTX logo is seen on a computer on November 10, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia.
      Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

      Fears that the collapse of FTX will lead to more destruction in the crypto industry are hitting almost every investor in the United States, from individuals to major Wall Street firms, with many wondering if another cryptocurrency trading platform called Genesis will fall next.

      So far, those fears have not been realized, and a Genesis spokesman said in a statement to NPR on Tuesday that “our goal is to resolve the current situation in the lending business without the need for any bankruptcy filing.”

      But Genesis has reportedly warned potential investors that it may need to file for bankruptcy if it fails to quickly raise a significant chunk of cash – $1 billion, according to Bloomberg News.

      And there are other worrying signs: Gemini has suspended redemptions and stopped originating new loans.

      “Crypto contagion” is a real possibility in the decentralized system of digital currencies, where there are few investor protections in place. Firms seemingly can opt out of following standard accounting procedures and controls, and companies can be tangled up with one another in unclear ways.
      …
      https://www.npr.org/2022/11/22/1138639733/crypto-contagion-ftx-genesis-blockfi

      1. ‘“Crypto contagion” is a real possibility in the decentralized system of digital currencies, where there are few investor protections in place.’

        The absence of regulatory meddling was a key selling point for cryptocurrencies. How did it morph into a source of incessant angst?

        On another note, I have recently begun to suspect the whole cryptocurrency boom was fully enabled by the Fed’s Quantitative Easing regime, and is conversely crippled by Quantitative Tightening. Does anyone have any evidence to the contrary that stands on its own, without requiring the agreement of an army of crypto fans?

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