It Was Hard For Sellers To Realize That They No Longer Have That Price Escalation
A report from the Tribune in California. “If 2022 was a roller coaster for San Luis Obispo County’s housing market, 2023 appears to have pumped the brakes somewhat. The median home price has cooled off to $790,000, a notable drop from last year’s price of $925,000, Redfin data showed.”
The Sun Sentinel. “Home sales plummeted to the lowest levels in at least a year in South Florida, as buyers and sellers grew wary of the housing market, new data shows. ‘The sellers are becoming more reasonable in their pricing,’ noted Bonnie Heatzig, executive director of luxury sales at Douglas Elliman in Boca Raton. ‘Coming off of 2021, it was such an incredible high for sellers, it was hard for them to reverse their thought to realize that they no longer have that price escalation.'”
The Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico. “The Albuquerque metro area housing market has continued to show signs of correction, with the latest data pointing to a decrease in closed sales and in the median sales price for single-family detached home sales. The median sales price last month dropped to $316,000 and closed sales stood at 520 — nearly 300 fewer closed sales year over year, according to the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors. The median sales price came in more than $10,000 less than in December, data shows. Since October, the median sales price has continuously decreased — dropping by $19,000 through January.”
“Carrie Traub, the 2023 GAAR president, said New Mexico — and especially the metro area — isn’t a very ‘wealthy place’ and said the way sales prices were increasing last year were untenable. ‘I’m welcoming the correction,’ she said. ‘The rate we were increasing (in sales prices) was unsustainable.'”
The Journal Sentinel in Wisconsin. “The developer of a proposed 28-story Wauwatosa apartment and office high-rise has dropped those plans − and says delays tied to neighborhood opposition played a role in that decision. John Vassallo is instead now proposing a car wash near the southwest corner of West Bluemound and North Mayfair roads. Vassallo said the project’s economic feasibility was affected by the big increase in lending interest rates over the past year or so. That made it more difficult to obtain financing for his proposed Drew Tower. ‘It’s a lot harder at 7 % than 3%,’ Vassallo said.”
“Vassallo is disappointed − in part because he believes the high-rise would have been better for Wauwatosa. Its value would have been an estimated $50 million, Vassallo said, or 10 times the $5 million car wash now planned. While Wauwatosa Mayor Dennis McBride hasn’t specifically expressed support for the Drew Tower, a car wash isn’t what the city needs, he said. ‘What we’re hoping for generally in Wauwatosa is balanced development projects where we seek the best and highest uses for our property,’ said McBride. ‘But a car wash certainly is not the highest and best use for that land.'”
The Dallas Morning News. “In case all those construction cranes in the skyline aren’t enough of an indication, a new study shows Texas leads the country in commercial real estate activity. With more than $70 billion in direct spending in the state in 2022, Texas accounted for almost 20% of nationwide commercial real estate sector contributions to the economy. And more than 1 million jobs in Texas were supported last year by the commercial property business, according to an annual study by the NAIOP Research Foundation.”
“‘Nonresidential building construction expenditures surged 41.6% in 2022 and are up 74.2% from 2020 levels,’ the annual report says. ‘Total construction spending was up an estimated 10.8% in 2022 and accounted for approximately 20.7% of total GDP.’ North Texas is the top U.S. market for construction of industrial buildings and apartments.”
Fox Business. “One market expert is sounding the alarm over higher interest rates being the ‘new normal’ and leaving the commercial real estate space feeling ‘extremely challenged.’ Key Advisors Group, LLC owner Eddie Ghabour warned consumers to prepare for the economic baggage that comes with another ‘six to eight months’ of rate hikes, declaring that he is ‘concerned’ for the real estate market. Ghabour continued, urging consumers to extinguish the belief that the Federal Reserve is going to bring rates down and ‘save the day.'”
“‘No one alive managing money has ever seen anything like this before. We’ve never had tightening this fast. We’ve never seen a bubble as big as the one we had in 2021, and we now have to get through that. And lastly, we’ve been conditioned to believe that the Fed is going to come in and save the day and rates are going to come down. We have to erase that from our mind. We are now going to be in a new normal of higher rates for the foreseeable future,’ he said.”
From Bisnow. “Columbia Property Trust has defaulted on a $1.7B loan backing a seven-building portfolio across four states. The firm, which had been a publicly traded REIT before being acquired by funds managed by PIMCO in 2021 for $3.9B, has already faced some difficulties with its portfolio of office buildings in gateway cities. It sold a Manhattan office building it had fully renovated for nearly $11M less than it paid in a deal that closed two weeks ago.”
“The seven buildings backing the defaulted loan were appraised for a combined $2.27B in 2021 and are in New York City, Boston, San Francisco and Jersey City, Bloomberg reported. All were saddled with floating rate debt, which has grown increasingly expensive since the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 4% in the last year.”
“The default is the latest evidence that interest rate hikes and dropping real estate values are causing strife among some landlords, particularly those who own older office properties. Commercial property prices have dropped 14% from their peak in March 2022, according to recent analysis by Green Street. Earlier this month, Columbia sold 149 Madison Ave., a 127K SF building where in 2020 WeWork abandoned its lease after the landlord spent $16M on renovations. The office space at the building was still vacant when the building sold for $77M, less than five years after Columbia paid $87.7M for it in 2017.”
The Los Angeles Times. “After a successful summer internship at a mortgage tech company, Alana Klopstein was thrilled to get a job offer. She signed the contract in January 2022, giving her peace of mind during her final year at UC San Diego. Then in June, three months before her start date, she got an email from the company. The market downturn had forced the firm to make difficult decisions, it read. Her offer was being rescinded. ‘It was really devastating,’ said Klopstein, 22, who lives in San Diego. ‘I had a vision of what my life would look like, what kind of adjustments I would have to make to transition into the working world after doing so many years of school, and that just wasn’t a thing anymore.'”
“Zening Zhao, 24, had interned at tech companies but started hearing rumors of layoffs or hiring freezes as he got closer to graduation. Working in finance seemed more stable, so he accepted a job as a Python software developer at a trading company in Chicago. After graduating in December from the University of Washington, Zhao packed up his life in Seattle, relocated and signed a lease for a new apartment. Five days before his start date, he got a call from his employer telling him his offer was rescinded because of reductions in company expenses.”
“‘I felt desperate at that moment,’ Zhao said. ‘I’ve prepared everything for the job. It’s the darkest day of my life so far.’ He’s now facing a tough job market flooded with out-of-work engineers — after submitting more than 100 job applications, he got only a few responses.”
“Isa Goldberg got hundreds of supportive comments and messages from connections on LinkedIn after she posted about her experience of having a healthcare consultant job offer rescinded just six days before her start date. ‘I was just flabbergasted,’ Goldberg, 27, who lives in Brooklyn, said of the rescinding. ‘I just took kind of an hour to cry, have an emotional moment, come to the ground and realize what was going on. It’s definitely a shock when you think you’re on the diving board of your career, and you jump off and you end up with a shallower bottom than you hoped.'”
From CTV News. “Nearly half of Canadians say they think mortgage fraud is common in Canada, while a sizeable portion think it’s acceptable to inflate income or misrepresent your employment to secure a mortgage. Those were the findings of the latest BNN Bloomberg and RATESDOTCA survey, conducted by Leger. The survey was sent out to respondents in mid-February, and surveyed 1,521 Canadian over the age of 18. Mortgage fraud can take several forms — this includes falsifying income, lying about a part-time or contract role, being full time or misrepresenting the source of your down payment, among other lies or omissions.”
“The survey found that while 70 per cent of Canadians say artificially inflating one’s income on a mortgage is never acceptable, 17 per cent of respondents said it is. Even more Canadians — 18 per cent — said it was acceptable to misrepresent elements of one’s employment in order to secure a mortgage. Forty-seven per cent of respondents said they feel mortgage fraud is common, while 12 per cent said they think it’s very common. Only five per cent said they think it’s very uncommon.”
“The issue of mortgage fraud in Canada has been a growing problem in recent years. Equifax has said that it has seen a 52 per cent increase in mortgage fraud cases since 2013. The problem is no doubt being exacerbated by an extremely unaffordable housing market across the country. RBC said that at the end of 2022, the average household needed to spend 62.7 per cent of their income to cover the costs of home ownership. That was the worst level on record. In some cities, such as Vancouver and Toronto, those numbers climbed to a shocking 95.8 per cent and 85.2 per cent of income, respectively.”
“High payments are due to a massive increase in interest rates in the past year, which have more than offset a decline in prices. The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, which is used to help set lending rates, rose from near-zero at the start of 2022 to 4.5 per cent as of Jan. 25. Meanwhile, home prices across the country have fallen in that time. The Canada Real Estate Association shows that the average Canadian home cost $612,204 in January 2023, down 18.3 per cent compared to a year ago.”
The Guardian in the UK. “Philip Harris, a 42-year-old designer who has properties in south and east London, became a landlord by accident after meeting his now wife. She already had a flat, but rented it out, and the couple bought a property off-plan, when it was still at the design stage. When their children were born, they needed more space and bought a third property, renting out the second one. At the time, they saw their small portfolio as a retirement investment, but now, worried about mounting costs, they want to reduce the risk by selling one of the homes. It’s a picture playing out across the country.”
“Hadi Khalisadar is a not-so-small landlord, with 150 properties and his own lettings agency. He said 20% of the landlords he worked with wanted to sell. ‘Lots of landlords are very anxious, to the extent that some are saying they cannot afford their properties.’ Khalisadar wants to get rid of three of his homes, too. He says lettings are now ‘over-regulated,’ and rising interest rates have not helped.”
“For those in the sector, particularly smaller landlords, it’s a case of waiting to see if they can weather the storm. ‘It causes me huge amounts of stress and anxiety,’ says Harris. ‘We have a big mortgage and, on top of that, an outlay every month to cover the expenses. We are just trying to breathe through it, as we are hoping there will be some respite.'”
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‘New Mexico — and especially the metro area — isn’t a very ‘wealthy place’ and said the way sales prices were increasing last year were untenable. ‘I’m welcoming the correction,’ she said. ‘The rate we were increasing (in sales prices) was unsustainable’
Yer not as poor as California Carrie but yer living in a sh$thole. When I saw prices had gone up 30% a couple of years ago I knew that Jerry had fooked up and knew it, so maybe this was the plan. You can always fall back on, well good luck Carrie.
‘Texas accounted for almost 20% of nationwide commercial real estate sector contributions to the economy. And more than 1 million jobs in Texas were supported last year by the commercial property business’
It’ll probably be fine.
“North Texas is the top U.S. market for construction of industrial buildings and apartments.”
I would expect to see it become number one in distressed properties at some point in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the magnitude of the bust is similar to Texas sized busts of the past. If so, they have some hard times ahead. I have spent some time in Texas and while I really want to like Texas it just doesn’t do it for me. Perhaps the flood of illegals will make it all work out.
I was there in the 80’s. The thing I have pointed out about the metroplex RE: it’s multiples larger now than the 80’s bust period.
I had one hell of a mullet in the 80s.
Russia is winning.
EXTORTION.
Russia Today — Zelensky threatens unsupportive Americans (2/25/2023):
“The warning was a response to a reporter asking what Zelensky would tell the “growing number of Americans” who believe their country is giving too much money and support to Ukraine. The president made sure to thank his American supporters – a group he hinted included not just Congress and President Joe Biden but also “the TV channels” and “the journalists” – before threatening those who held the “dangerous” opinion that the US should “give up” on Kiev.
The US has thus far pledged $113 billion to Ukraine’s war effort, vowing to continue pouring money into the conflict for “as long as it takes.”
https://www.rt.com/news/572077-zelensky-warns-us-support-flagging/
Zelensky is a war criminal.
TREASON.
New York Post — Zelensky asks House GOP for more Ukraine aid as reluctance grows (2/25/2023):
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with a group of House GOP members in Kyiv to ask for more military aid amid growing reluctance within the Republican party to continue providing weaponry.
Indeed, some opponents of more support for the war suggested that the Ukrainian leader has “threatened” the US over supplying more aid for the war.
Zelensky sat down with House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and four other GOP members in the Ukranian capital and said he would send a wish list of weapons he believes could help end the war with Russia, including F-16 fighter jets and long-range guided ATACMS missiles.
McCaul said the Biden administration and National Security Council are still at odds on “how fast and what weapons” to give to Ukraine.
“But I’m seeing increasing momentum towards getting the artillery and the planes in,” McCaul told reporters in Kyiv. “And in any event, we can start training the pilots right now so they’re ready.”
https://nypost.com/2023/02/25/volodymyr-zelensky-house-republicans-for-more-ukraine-aid/
Increasing momentum? Michael McCaul you are guilty of treason and war crimes.
American taxpayers, you are nothing more than cattle tax slaves. Your country has been hijacked by globalists:
“Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that U.S. support for Ukraine “will be lasting and is unconditional.”
Co-host Joe Scarborough asked, “Secretary Yellen, what can we do? What can the allied governments do to help the Ukrainians right now over the next year? Do we begin – is it too early to talk about reconstruction projects? At least the western half of the country. What’s our best move now?
Yellen said, “Let me make clear, the United States and the allies, our support for Ukraine will be lasting and is unconditional. We stand with Ukraine and want to support Ukraine.”
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2023/02/24/treasury-secretary-yellen-our-support-for-ukraine-will-be-lasting-and-is-unconditional/
Unconditional?
Nobody outside of the Beltway “stands with Ukraine”
Maybe Yellen the Felon could try doing her one and only job: ensuring the soundness of the U.S. dollar.
This article is nauseating.
The New Yorker — Joe Biden’s Showy Defiance of Vladimir Putin (2/22/2023):
“As political choreography goes, it was pitch-perfect: the tall American President, in his trademark aviator sunglasses and dark overcoat, striding unfazed through the beautiful streets of Kyiv, on Monday, as air-raid sirens blared, with Ukraine’s young leader, in his wartime olive fatigues, at his side. Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky may be an unlikely pairing, but their short, defiant stroll through Zelensky’s embattled capital, nearly a year to the day after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, made for a historic sight.
It has been Biden’s curse—and opportunity—to become President after a lifetime of aspiring to the job at just the moment when democracy has come under attack, at home and abroad. At his best, Biden has summoned an admirable clarity in describing the threat, whether from Constitution-defying Trumpists in the United States or Putin and his fellow-authoritarians overseas.
But this is war, not a Hollywood movie. The writers got the Churchillian set piece right; the plot, however, remains more than a bit unclear. During the past year, Biden has rallied Congress and the NATO allies to provide unprecedented sums for Ukraine’s defense—more than fifty billion dollars from the United States alone—supplying a vast modern arsenal to Ukraine that was all but unthinkable when the invasion began. But is it enough?
The divisions, which Biden was at such pains in his speech to portray as nonexistent, are in fact very real. Back in Washington, critics come on both flanks. Hawks, from both parties, fear that Biden, for all his strong words and diplomatic prowess in building and sustaining a Western alliance to bolster Ukraine, has pursued a policy of incrementalism that keeps Ukraine in the fight, without giving it the support it needs to actually win.
John Herbst, a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, summed up this view in a sharp response to Biden’s trip to Kyiv, which he called “useful, positive, and even necessary,” but a reflection nonetheless of a policy that “is neither strong nor visionary,” the approach of a “bookkeeper” focussed on doling out armaments rather than a “statesman” more clearly spelling out an objective of Ukrainian victory and supplying the means to achieve it.”
A bookkeeper? Doling out infinite shekels, stolen from the U.S. taxpayer.
“That is a real obstacle to Biden’s success—and Ukraine’s. Polls suggest that many Americans, and not just hyper-partisan Republican primary voters, are wary of the support that the U.S. is supplying. I worry that it’s not the eastern front of Ukraine but the home front that may, in the end, pose the biggest challenge to standing strong against Putin. Perhaps, though, that is a worry for another day. For now, Biden has done what he can, and what he ought to. And he sure looked pretty tough in those sunglasses, walking down the street in a war zone as no President in our lifetime ever had. Take that, Putin.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/joe-bidens-showy-defiance-of-vladimir-putin
Susan B. Glasser, do you have any sons? Are your sons in Ukraine right now? If not, what’s stopping them?
Go visit some U.S. military cemeteries and look for the surname Glasser on the graves of soldiers killed in combat.
Can’t find any? Why is that, Susan?
#Noticing
If my maths is correct that about $900 for every US tax payers.
‘Columbia Property Trust has defaulted on a $1.7B loan backing a seven-building portfolio across four states. The firm, which had been a publicly traded REIT before being acquired by funds managed by PIMCO in 2021 for $3.9B, has already faced some difficulties with its portfolio of office buildings in gateway cities. It sold a Manhattan office building it had fully renovated for nearly $11M less than it paid in a deal that closed two weeks ago’
Note this is jingle mail. No UCC foreclosure actions, court cases. Just here’s the keys bye! How the mighty have fallen. Pimco mouth breathers used to be in the news all the time .
.The seven buildings backing the defaulted loan were appraised for a combined $2.27B in 2021 and are in New York City, Boston, San Francisco and Jersey City, Bloomberg reported. All were saddled with floating rate debt, which has grown increasingly expensive since the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 4% in the last year’
Saddled, there it is again!
…PIMCO….All were saddled with floating rate debt, which has grown increasingly expensive since the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 4% in the last year’
Gee, is it any wonder that PIMCO was one of the ones crying that the FED was making a huge mistake raising rates? Every pivot and sob story about rate hikes is from some entity that needs low rates or they’re going BK.
‘After a successful summer internship at a mortgage tech company, Alana Klopstein was thrilled to get a job offer. ..‘It was really devastating…I had a vision of what my life would look like, what kind of adjustments I would have to make to transition into the working world after doing so many years of school, and that just wasn’t a thing anymore’
Well the first tip off was ‘mortgage tech’ Alana. What exactly is that? Does it have anything to do with self driving flying taxis?
‘Its value would have been an estimated $50 million, Vassallo said, or 10 times the $5 million car wash now planned’
$5 million for a car wash?
Ennio MORRICONE live a Fenis dirige “Ecstasy of Gold” (con Susanna Rigacci)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUNVBGHiBY0
3:35.
$5 million for a car wash?
Often forgotten about in this disgustingly outrageous everything bubble – absurd business valuations.
Joe Biden’s America.
Portland family terrorized by squatters who almost set house on fire (2/25/2023):
“An Oregon family armed with fire extinguishers had to repeatedly save their home from fires after homeless squatters set a next-door house ablaze twice in one day.
Jacob Adams said he jumped into action as flames from both infernos threatened to leap over to their Portland property in the latest in a string of terrifying experiences since squatters took over the neighboring structure five years earlier.”
The squatters have been there FIVE YEARS? Keep paying those property taxes, Jacob.
“Portland has been dealing with a long-lasting homeless problem. There are over 6,600 homeless people in Portland across more than 700 encampments.
Although the city’s Mayor Ted Wheeler announced in October plans to ban the camps, the tent cities have largely remained undisturbed by city officials, including police.
The lax enforcement has allowed squatters to take over homes like the one next door to Adams, despite being served multiple eviction notices.
Over the past five years, Adams said he’s reported multiple thefts — including one culprit he caught stalking off their property with their firewood — drug usage and physical fights inside the rapidly deteriorating home, but to no avail.”
https://nypost.com/2023/02/25/portland-squatters-terrorize-neighbors-nearly-set-home-on-fire/
700 encampments is that a lot?
Visualize a single large homeless encampment in Portland. Then count to 100. Then imagine doing that 7 more times and there are that many. Portland is a sh!thole. I won’t even drive through it anymore.
Woody Harrelson on Saturday Night Live last night:
“The biggest drug cartels in the world get together and buy up all the media and all the politicians and force all the people in the world to stay locked in their homes, and people can only come out if they take the cartel’s drugs and keep taking them over and over.”
https://twitter.com/nbcsnl/status/1629708620752453634
Sounds like a medical genocide.
Vaccine Regrets
https://www.bitchute.com/video/kLchDHjyOoxt/
2:34.
Steve Kirsch — Medicare data shows the COVID vaccines increase your chance of dying (2/25/2023):
“This may well be the most important article I’ll write in 2023.
Last night, I got a USB drive in my mailbox with the Medicare data that links deaths and vaccination dates. Finally! This is the data that nobody wants to talk or even ask about.
I was able to authenticate the data by matching it with records I already had. And the analysis that I did on the data I received matches up with other analyses I have received previously.
The nice thing about this Medicare data is that nobody can claim that it is “unreliable.” Medicare is the unassailable “gold-standard” database. It’s the database that the CDC never wants us to see for some reason. They never even mention it. They pretend it doesn’t exist. So you know it is important.
Do you want to know what it shows?
It shows that these shots increase your risk of dying and once you get shot, your risk of dying remains elevated for an unknown amount of time. And that’s in the very population it is supposed to help the most!
Now you know why the CDC, which has always had access to the Medicare records, has never made them publicly available for anyone to analyze to prove that the vaccines are safe. Because the records show the opposite. That’s why they keep the data hidden from view and it’s why they NEVER talk about it.
Today, in this article, you will finally get to see what nobody outside the HHS has ever seen before: the “gold standard” Medicare records, i.e., the truth. You can analyze it yourself.
You’ll soon see for yourself why the CDC will never release this data and why the mainstream press is NEVER EVER going to ask to see the data: because it would reveal they lied to people and killed over 500,000 Americans by recommending they take an unsafe “vaccine.”
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/game-over-medicare-data-shows-the
Nuremberg Trials v2.0
Globalist propaganda flagships move in lockstep to denounce Woody Harrelson “anti-vax rant.”
https://twitter.com/DogRightGirl/status/1629828543382274049
Zhao packed up his life in Seattle, relocated and signed a lease for a new apartment. Five days before his start date, he got a call from his employer telling him his offer was rescinded because of reductions in company expenses.”
99% chance it was a $2000+ luxury apartment instead of a shared rental for $800 a month he could afford at his newer lower paying job.
Who wants to live in a shared rental?
Who wants to live in a shared rental?
Exactly. I had roommates one time in my life in my early 20s and would never do it again. I keep a lot of cash on hand. There are very few people I trust around my money and expensive possessions.
Longer piece by Glenn Greenwald linked from Revolver News.
New Law Sought by Brazil’s Lula to Ban and Punish “Fake News and Disinformation” Threatens the Free Internet Everywhere (2/25/2023):
“Last May, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security was forced to retreat from its attempt to appoint a “disinformation czar” to oversee what would effectively be its Ministry of Truth. That new DHS agency, at least nominally, was to be only advisory: it would declare truth and falsity and then pressure online platforms to comply by banning that which was deemed by the U.S. Security State to be false. The backlash was so great — the CIA and company are not exactly world-renown for telling the truth — that DHS finally claimed to cancel it, though secret documents emerged in October describing the agency’s plans to continue to shape online censorship decisions of Big Tech.
Brazil’s law would be anything but advisory. Though the details are still yet to be released, it would empower law enforcement officials to take action against citizens deemed to be publishing statements that the government classifies as “false,” and to solicit courts to impose punishment on those who do so.
The Brazilian left is almost entirely united with the country’s largest corporate media outlets in supporting this censorship regime (sound familiar?). The leading advocates of this new censorship law include pro-government lawyers, famous pro-Lula YouTube influencers, and even journalists(!). They are now being invited to and feted in “fake news” and “disinformation” conferences in glamorous European capitals sponsored by UN agencies, because the EU is eager to obtain such censorship powers for itself, and sees Brazil as the first test case for whether the public will tolerate such an aggressive acquisition of dissent-suppression authorities by the state.
For the globalist order increasingly petrified of internet freedom – they blame online free speech for everything from Brexit and Hillary’s defeat to skepticism of health authorities and growing opposition to U.S. support for the proxy war in Ukraine – Brazil has become the perfect test case for seizing state power to censor the internet in the name of stopping “fake news and disinformation.” Nothing fosters support for authoritarianism the way fear does, and much of the Brazilian establishment believes they are fighting a new War on Terror. Even with Bolsonaro vanquished for now in Florida, his party in the last election won the most seats in both houses of Congress as well as key governorships across the country.
That is why Europe, and large sectors of the U.S. establishment, see Brazil as the perfect laboratory to test how far censorship powers can go. With many Brazilians believing they just suffered their own 9/11 or January 6, all power centers know that the perfect time to seize new authoritarian powers and abridge core liberties is when the population is in a state of fear and terror, and thus willing to sacrifice liberties in exchange for illusory promises of security.
And recall that polling data in the U.S. shows that very large majorities of Democrats (and a disturbingly robust minority of GOP voters) would support a law similar to the one pending in Brazil to empower the state to restrict internet freedom in the name of stopping “misinformation.” As Pew found in 2021, 65% of Democrats “say the government should take steps to restrict false information, even if it means limiting freedom of information.” Perhaps the First Amendment would be a barrier to implementation of such a law in the U.S., but there is ample public support, especially on the liberal-left, for state censorship of the internet.”
https://greenwald.locals.com/post/3585012/new-law-sought-by-brazils-lula-to-ban-and-punish-fake-news-and-disinformation-threatens-the-free?
The Teamsters’ mismanaged pension fund received the largest-ever private pension bailout in American history as a sweet thank-you for the decades of political support the union gave Democrats.
https://thefederalist.com/2023/02/23/biden-shoveled-36-billion-in-taxpayer-funds-to-bail-out-teamsters-for-mismanaged-pensions
Linked from The Burning Platform.
The Plan to Wreck America (2/23/2023):
“In America, we have an oligarch problem, and it’s much bigger than the oligarch problem that Putin faced when he became president in 2000. The entire West is now in the grips of billionaire elites who have a stranglehold on the media, the political establishment and all of our important institutions. In recent years we have seen these oligarchs expand their influence from markets, finance and trade to politics, social issues and even public health. The impact this group has had on these other areas of interest, has been nothing short of breathtaking. Establishment elites and their media not only stood foursquare behind Russiagate, the Trump impeachment, the BLM riots and the January 6 fiasco, they also had a hand in the Covid hysteria and the host of repressive measures that were imposed in the name of public health. What we’d like to know is to what extent this group is actively involved in the shaping of other events that are aimed at transforming the American Republic into a more authoritarian system?
In other words, are the mandated injections, the forced lockdowns, the aggressive government-implemented censorship, the dubious presidential elections, the burning of food processing plants, the derailing of trains, the attacks on the power grid, the BLM-Antifa riots, the drag queen shows for schoolchildren, the maniacal focus on gender issues, and glitzy public show-trials merely random incidents occurring spontaneously during a period of great social change or are they, in fact, evidence of a stealthily orchestrated operation conducted by agents of the state acting on behalf of their elite benefactors? We already know that the FBI, the DOJ and the intel agencies were directly involved in Russiagate –which was a covert attack on the sitting president of the United States. So, the question is not “whether” these agencies are actively involved in other acts of treachery but, rather, to what extent these acts impact the lives or ordinary Americans, our politics and the country? But before we answer that question, take a look at this quote from from a recent interview by Colonel Douglas MacGregor:
“I was reading a document that was authored by George Soros over 10 years ago in which he talks specifically about this all-out war that would ultimately come against Russia because he said this ‘was the last nationalist state that rests on a foundation of orthodox christian culture with Russian identity at its core. That has to be removed.”
^THIS.
“So I think that the people who are in charge in the west and the people in charge in Washington think they have successfully destroyed the identities of the European and American peoples, that we have no sense of ourselves, our borders are undefended, we present no resistance to the incoming migrants from the developing world who essentially roll over us as though we owe them a living and that our laws do not count. Thus, far I would say that is an accurate evaluation of what we’ve been doing. And I think that’s a great victory for George Soros and the globalists, the anti-nationalists; those who want open borders what they call it an “Open Society” because you end up with nothing, an amorphous mass of people struggling to survive who are reduced to the lowest levels of subsistence … ”
You will own nothing? That sure sounds familiar.
“The reason I transcribed this comment from MacGregor was because it sums up the perceptions of a great many people who see things the same way. It expresses the hatred that globalist billionaires have toward Christians and patriots, both of which they see as obstacles to their goal of a borderless one-world government.
On any number of topics from ESG, to digital currencies, to vaccine passports, to AI, to gain-of-function research, to 15-minute cities, to transhumanism, to war with Russia; the decisions are all being made by a handful of people of whom we know every little and who were never voted into office.
And that brings us back to our original question: How many of these oddball events (in recent years) were conjured up and implemented by agents of the deep state to advance the elitist agenda?
This seem like an impossible question since it’s hard to find a link between these dramatically divers events. For example, what is the link between a Drag Queen Children’s Hour and, let’s say, firebombing a food processing plant in Oklahoma? Or the relentless political exploitation of gender issues and the January 6 public show trials? If there was a connection, we’d see it, right?”
The connection is Marxism.
“Not necessarily, because the link might not have anything to do with the incident itself, but instead, with its impact on the people who experience it. In other words, all of these events could be aimed at generating fear, uncertainty, anxiety, alienation and even terror. Have the intelligence agencies launched such destabilizing operations before?
This destruction of the state must be carried out under the cover of (communist) activities…. Popular opinion must be polarized in such a way, that we are being presented as the only instrument capable of saving the nation.”
In other words, the objective of the operation is to completely disrupt all social relations and interaction, cultivate feelings of uncertainty, polarization and terror, find a group that can be scapegoated for the wide societal collapse, and, then, present yourself (elites) as the best choice for restoring order.
Is this what’s going on?
It’s very possible. It could all be part of a Grand Strategy aimed at “wiping the slate clean” in order to “transition away from intergovernmental decision-making” to a system of “multi-stakeholder governance.”
That could explain why there has been such a vicious and sustained attack on our history, culture, traditions, religious beliefs, monuments, heroes, and founders. They want to replace our idealism with feelings of shame, humiliation and guilt. They want to erase our past, our collective values, our heritage, our commitment to personal freedom, and the very idea of America itself. They want to raze everything to the ground and start over.”
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-plan-to-wreck-america/
Globalists gonna globe.
I just hope somebody sinks Bezos’ yacht. I hate that guy.
Who are these ‘elites’? Do they wear tiny hats?
They worship Lucifer and Moloch. Some wear tiny hats as cover.
A reader sent these in:
Great quote on Vietnam construction sector applies to global commercial real estate. ““We believe this is just the beginning, and expect more debt extensions, restructurings and defaults,” said Xavier Jean, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings.
https://twitter.com/rcwhalen/status/1629594194934214656
Danielle DiMartino Booth
“American Car Center told employees the business was closing its doors, a day after it pulled a $222 million bond sale from the market…(company) has more than 40 dealerships across 10 states, is owned by York Capital Management LLC.”
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1629568904380006400
Aaron Layman
A reminder that America’s housing “shortage” problem is really a housing use problem.
https://twitter.com/dfwaaronlayman/status/1629601540431396864
Doing some builder site recon and thought you would like this one in an exurb of Austin
https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1629584389360287747
Its like a whole history lesson on the housing market
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1629582465152208896
John Wake
“Irvine’s short-term rental ordinance led to a 2.7% decline in contracted long-term rental prices”
https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1629549127670571008
During the Super Bowl, an owner of 95 AirBNBs in Phoenix expected to rent out all his properties at $1,200 a night. After dropping his price to $500, 55% of his properties were still vacant. Changing times?
https://twitter.com/GrahamStephan/status/1629456463872622592
🧵M3 Charlotte Dispatch 1) Multifamily Mania and McMansion Expansion
Multi farms, red-dirt lots for $600K homes only a hop, skip and a 2-hr+ commute to Charlotte and apartments stacked on top of each other in Southend. What could go wrong? CLT more like DFW, than Nash
https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1629526965328781316
A friend just got back from Hawaii vacation. Was shocked at inflationary costs. 4 Simple small Açai bowls for breakfast US$72. Chain restaurant dinners US$200, no alcohol. Grocery costs $400 that would last two days.
https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO/status/1629496843146256385
Powell has been asked about housing struggling. Quite frankly, he doesn’t care. He said you made a ton of money on housing from 2020 to 2022. You can take a retracement. Housing is on its own.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1629241821061586946
The best way to think about today’s economy is that the Fed is in a race to slow down growth before inflation becomes entrenched. Most data suggests they are losing that race right now. The quicker they recognize it and respond, the lower risk that inflation becomes entrenched.
https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1629468009906462721
On the luxury side …. This was a major deal today!! This guy just reset the whole neighborhood! Wonder why he did that?
https://twitter.com/ssun5555/status/1629328456331804672
Powell: we’re aiming for a soft landing for housing. The landing:
https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1629309927570145282
Austin Texas house prices collapse back to Feb 2021
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1629280848095887362
This poll from today’s Australian (newspaper) should be ringing alarm bells for policymakers. 49% of renters are not renting by choice instead because they are priced out of buying a house.
https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1629601923811909632
Interesting fact. The Kiwi housing market produced a positive month on month figure in February last year. The market then plummeted at a faster rate than the U.S GFC housing crash. With Wellington nearly falling more in 18 months than the U.S did in 6 years.
https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1629272588219465728
Lmfao… wife just got home from showing a house . The other realtor said he’s slammed and has been showing 25+ homes a week. I told her to look what the other realtor has sold in the last 90days. 1 house… 1 single house. Realtors lie to create a sense of urgency! Do better
https://twitter.com/ssun5555/status/1629597392038252547
“A US homebuyer with a $2,500 monthly budget can afford a $384,000 home, compared with the $518,000 home that same buyer could have purchased with the 3% rates common in 2021. That leaves sellers with just one option to lure buyers: Lower their asking price.” – Redfin
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1629526064924901378
Mortgage purchase applications in the US fell to their lowest level since 1995 last week. The average American household simply cannot afford the average home price at current mortgage rates (6.5% for 30-year fixed).
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1629528475387281409
The Fed’s balance sheet is now 6.5% below its April 2022 peak. The 2 largest drawdowns over the last 20 years? 1) Dec ’08 – Feb ’09: -18.2% (balance sheet hit new high in Jan ’10). 2) Jan ’15 – Aug ’19: -16.7% (balance sheet hit a new high in Mar ’20).
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1629519087872114688
5) Housing Investment Boom/Bust
During the US housing boom of 2020-21 investor demand spiked to record levels. We’re now seeing the opposite, with a 46% drop in investor purchases over the last year, the largest decline on record.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1628379085712809985
70% of Canadians believe that “a little bit” of mortgage fraud is OK according to a BNN survey apparently
What lol
https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1629136634640736256
“More than a year later, the company, Tiber Capital Group, is pulling back, the victim of a sudden housing slowdown that caught many sophisticated players by surprise.” Now Tiber Capital is a “victim”!! So sad.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1629612236129075200
“One other aspect that nobody is talking about yet is that…an incredibly huge number of commercial real estate projects that have been done over the past 3 years are solidly in fail-mode here.” – Mike Taylor
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1629551002729992193
“Everything was done at a cap rate of like 3.7%, and they’re walking into a cap rate of 9%.” – MT
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1629551682689568773
“I don’t know a private equity group that isn’t in trouble, and I’ve talked to many. In fact, I don’t know a private equity group in commercial that isn’t giving, or planning on giving, keys back on new projects.” – MT
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1629554147434590209
“Unlike in ’07, where the banks had a major role in everything, this has been filled since 08/09 by cottage businesses that have gotten much larger, but they’re incredibly ill-equipped to take back these losers and put them on the market…or take a loss in their book.” – MT
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1629556079045795840
CarDealershipGuy
First time I’ve ever seen *90-month* auto loans
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1629493457096933377
“Japan is in this disaster mode. This is what happens at the end where they cannot stop printing no matter what. In fact, it accelerates as inflation comes on. In order to hold their bond market together they have to print more.” – Mike Taylor
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1629508143918219266
Serious delinquency rate for FHA endorsed by FICO score as of December 2022. UBS affirms they don’t see a GFC repeat with a recession scenario..they don’t see but they see lol
https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1629497675547648001
A mortgage payment rule of thumb is the “front-end ratio,” aka the “28% rule.” It gives you an idea of how much you can spend on a house. The Covid spike is a sight to behold. Coming down now. More declines this year, it would seem.
https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1629521856226299904
Housing remains unaffordable. Not only that, but prices are now falling, so we have the psychological change too. We can talk about lack of supply all we want, but that isn’t going to change paycheck arithmetic. The whole thing was reliant on 3% mortgages. Those days are gone.
https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1629186275323387904
Even mainstream auto finance companies are exiting the business. They can no longer collateralize and sell loans profitably which quickly exhausts their liquidity.
https://twitter.com/petaluma_rob/status/1629611775413944321
PCE Core Services Ex-Housing just posted one of its hottest prints in 35 years.
https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1629580081185128448
J Powell’s favorite inflation measure just made a new high! 🤦♂️
https://twitter.com/TheMaverickWS/status/1629122221930315776
CPI,PPI, PCE all coming in hot as well as previous reports being revised up…
https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1629487961279541254
PEG RATIO SHOWS U.S. EQUITIES THE MOST RICHLY PRICED IN ALMOST THREE DECADES OF DATA: BBG
https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1629316915100528643
Troubling story. Also, it’s amazing how a Disney vacation has become this totem of rising costs and household debt. LendingTree found recently that 18% of Disney theme park visitors take on debt to pay for their vacations, but 70% of them don’t regret it.
https://twitter.com/RWhelanWSJ/status/1629520339548946432
“Lmfao… wife just got home from showing a house . The other realtor said he’s slammed and has been showing 25+ homes a week. I told her to look what the other realtor has sold in the last 90days. 1 house… 1 single house. Realtors lie to create a sense of urgency! Do better”
Relitters® lie!? Stop the presses!!
“Japan is in this disaster mode. This is what happens at the end where they cannot stop printing no matter what. In fact, it accelerates as inflation comes on. In order to hold their bond market together they have to print more.” – Mike Taylor
Their central bankers need to be rounded up and executed publicly before they destroy the entire country. What we are seeing is that these central bankers will not stop until they burn it all down.
“During the Super Bowl, an owner of 95 AirBNBs in Phoenix expected to rent out all his properties at $1,200 a night. After dropping his price to $500, 55% of his properties were still vacant. Changing times?”
definitely a business model based on the FED printing about 5T new money every year and distributing it in various forms of stimulus.
“Austin Texas house prices collapse back to Feb 2021”
I don’t understand why everyone is so focused on the 2019-2020 as a target for home prices. That was just an extreme anomaly on top of a massive bubble already in place: 2014-2019. Realistically prices will overcorrect to about 2012 level before they’ll bounce back a bit and then stabilize until the next big rate cuts.
Realistically prices will overcorrect to about 2012 level before they’ll bounce back a bit and then stabilize until the next big rate cuts.
😂😂😂
Says who?
me!
Realistically prices will overcorrect to about 2012 level before they’ll bounce back a bit and then stabilize until the next big rate cuts.
All you’ll need is the next big credit bubble. Got something 10x China lined up?
Finally: New York Times Admits Biden’s ‘Migrant Children Work Brutal Jobs’
NEIL MUNRO
25 Feb 2023
Hundreds of thousands of migrant teenagers are working “brutal jobs” to pay off their smuggling debts amid President Joe Biden’s loose border rules, the New York Times admitted in a February 25 article.
Extraction Migration
The federal government has long operated an economic policy of “Extraction Migration.” The policy extracts vast amounts of human resources from needy countries and uses the imported workers, renters, and consumers to grow Wall Street and the economy.
The migrant inflow has successfully forced down Americans’ wages and also boosted rents and housing prices. The inflow has also pushed many native-born Americans out of careers in a wide variety of business sectors, reduced native-born Americans’ political clout, and contributed to the rising death rate of poor Americans.
https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2023/02/25/finally-new-york-times-admits-bidens-migrant-children-work-brutal-jobs/
Lead article on The Federalist now.
How Trump Derangement Gave Birth To The Censorship-Industrial Complex (2/24/2023):
“This Censorship Complex is bigger than banned Twitter accounts or Democrats’ propensity for groupthink. Its funding and collaboration implicate the government, academia, tech giants, nonprofits, politicians, social media, and the legacy press. Under the guise of combatting so-called misinformation, disinformation, and mal-information, these groups seek to silence speech that threatens the far-left’s ability to control the conversation — and thus the country and the world.
Americans grasped a thread of this reality with the release of the “Twitter Files” and the Washington Examiner’s reporting on the Global Disinformation Index, which revealed the coordinated censorship of speech by government officials, nonprofits, and the media. Yet Americans have no idea of the breadth and depth of the “Censorship Complex” — and how much it threatens the fabric of this country.
Even with the rise of independent news outlets, until about 2016 the left-leaning corporate media controlled the flow of information. Then Donald Trump entered the political arena and used social media to speak directly to Americans. Despite the Russia hoax and the media’s all-out assault, Trump won, proving the strategic use of social media could prevail against a unified corporate press. The left was terrified.
Of course, Democrats and the media couldn’t admit their previous control over information converted to electoral victories and that for their own self-preservation, they needed to suppress other voices. So instead, the left began pushing the narrative that “disinformation” — including Russian disinformation — from alternative news outlets and social media companies handed Trump the election.
Disinformation Is Scarier if It’s Russian …
silencing conservatives would require more than merely labeling their speech as disinformation, so the various elements of the Censorship Complex deployed what they called “the added element of Russian meddling” in the 2016 election, with Clinton amplifying this message and blaming the spread of social media misinformation for her loss.
Priming the public to connect “disinformation” with Russia’s supposed interference in the 2016 election allowed the Censorship Complex to frame demands for censorship as patriotic: a fight against foreign influence to save democracy!
https://thefederalist.com/2023/02/24/how-trump-derangement-gave-birth-to-the-censorship-industrial-complex/
Globalists gonna globe.
The Canada Real Estate Association shows that the average Canadian home cost $612,204 in January 2023, down 18.3 per cent compared to a year ago.”
Is that a lot?
Elon Musk dubs 2014 Ukraine regime change a ‘coup’
The billionaire described Viktor Yanukovich’s election as ‘dodgy’ but said the coup was beyond question
25 Feb, 2023 20:01
Twitter CEO Elon Musk polarized his followers with a tweet declaring there was “no question” that the 2014 change of government in Ukraine was a “coup.” On Saturday, the billionaire tweeted that while “the election” – presumably referring to the 2010 vote that elected Viktor Yanukovich president – was “arguably dodgy,” what followed “was indeed a coup.”
The tweet was a response to a post from user @KanekoaTheGreat that featured the front page of an article by University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer titled “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is The West’s Fault.” Dating from 2014, the piece – subtitled “The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin” – argues that “NATO enlargement” and Western meddling in Ukrainian politics, and not “Russian aggression,” are to blame for Crimea’s accession to Russia.
https://www.rt.com/news/572075-elon-musk-ukraine-coup-election/
Have you ever asked yourself why you no longer recognize the country you were born in and grew up in?
One in which the passage of such a bill is even necessary?
Post Millennial — Kansas legally defines woman as ‘human female’ in new Women’s Bill of Rights (2/25/2023):
“On Thursday, Kansas legislators passed the Women’s Bill of Rights, becoming the first state in the union to pass a bill that defines a woman as a biological female.
Speaking to the Washington Times, Senator Erickson, who spearheaded the bill, said, “What this does is simply codify in the law the definition of sex.”
“It simply says that in existing statute or law, where there is a definition of sex, it means biological male and female as determined at birth. That’s very factual, it’s very objective,” Erickson said. “There are legitimate reasons to distinguish between the sexes with respect to prisons, domestic violence shelters, rape crisis centers and other areas where safety and privacy are needed.”
“This bill does not create any new rights or entitlements. It simply codifies the definition of sex as biological male and female in existing statutes and laws,” she added.
“The terms ‘woman’ and ‘girl’ refer to human females, and the terms ‘man’ and ‘boy’ refer to human males,” states the bill, and “the term ‘mother’ means a parent of the female sex, and the term ‘father’ means a parent of the male sex.”
The legislation passed in a 26-10 vote with no Democratic state senators voting in favor of the bill.
Democratic Governor Laura Kelly has vetoed the bill twice before. The bill will go to the House where it would need a veto-proof majority to pass into law.”
https://thepostmillennial.com/kansas-legally-defines-woman-as-human-female-in-new-womens-bill-of-rights
Marxism.
The only reason this is necessary is because of Marxist globalists.
Linked from Western Rifle Shooters Association.
This is what the Marxist globalists have planned for all of Europe, the UK, Canada, AUS, NZ, and the United States.
Security Alert: U.S. Embassy – State of Disaster Declared Over Ongoing Energy Crisis of “Load-shedding” By U.S. Mission South Africa (2/15/2023):
“The government of South Africa has declared a “State of Disaster” in response to ongoing power shortages. The country’s energy crisis includes sustained load-shedding (controlled rolling blackouts), at varying intervals and is expected to extend beyond 2023. Load-shedding currently results in localized power outages of up to six hours or more per day throughout the country. These planned electricity outages negatively affect private residences, businesses, municipal lighting, traffic lights, and hotels. Rolling blackouts can also impact water availability and safety, internet connectivity, cell phone network coverage, fuel pumps (and therefore fuel availability), residential security features, and the food supply. Additionally, power outages have the potential to increase crime; for example, traffic jams when lights are out provide opportunities for smash and grab crime, and residences can be targeted when lights are out and security systems are not functioning. Further, ongoing conditions have led to an increase in protests and demonstrations, and in some cases civil unrest, throughout the country.”
https://za.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-state-of-disaster-declared-over-ongoing-energy-crisis-of-load-shedding-controlled-electricity-outages/
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
Businesses prepare for grid collapse in South Africa
https://businesstech.co.za/news/business/668257/businesses-prepare-for-grid-collapse-in-south-africa/
“Who needs white men!?” Every dumb bimbo in America
Maybe they should ask South Afrikaners how it’s going.
The most important question a US male should ask a potential female partner is about her political views. Choose wisely.
The most important question a US male should ask a potential female partner is about her
Willingness and openness to consider new information and viewpoints. Eighteen years ago, my husband thought I was too liberal to date. Views can change.
Choose wisely.
As if the man’s the only one with choice. Have fun being old and single.
Have fun being old and single.
As if any of us knows what the future holds for us, despite answers to questions, promises, hopes and dreams.
All my Republican donations were dark,” he told Fong. “And the reason was not for regulatory reasons. It’s because reporters freak the f*** out if you donate to a Republican. They’re all super liberal, and I didn’t want to have that fight. So, I made all the Republican ones dark.”
https://www.npr.org/2023/02/26/1157528598/ftx-crypto-sam-bankman-fried-bankruptcy-fraud-criminal-charges
Why is this guy not in the slammer?
You get 3 guesses and the first two don’t count.
It’s a big club (family), you ain’t in it.
Neil Oliver, “What the Hell – We’re Rationing Tomatoes”….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbekLBFgCmQ
The problem is with the surplus of lies…
Is it safe to conclude the Fed has successfully brought down inflation, and lower interest rates are just around the corner?
The Financial Times
Sovereign bonds
Record-breaking global bond rally crumbles as fresh inflation fears grip investors
Fixed income markets reverse gains since start of year in ‘reality check’ over path of interest rates
Euro bills seen next to US dollar bills
Better than expected economic data on both sides of the Atlantic has upended expectations that the Fed and the European Central Bank are close to winning their battle with inflation
Kate Duguid and Harriet Clarfelt in New York and George Steer in London February 25 2023
The record-breaking global bond market rally since the start of this year has fizzled out as mounting signs of persistent inflation force investors to reverse their views on the likely future path of interest rate rises.
Investors rushed into fixed income in the first few weeks of 2023 as they became increasingly expectant that the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks would soon end their aggressive campaign of monetary policy tightening.
A Bloomberg index tracking high-grade government and corporate bonds rose as much as 4 per cent last month, its best ever start to the year.
But that gain has now disappeared after a scorching US labour market report earlier this month kicked off a run of better than expected economic data on both sides of the Atlantic, upending expectations that the Fed and the European Central Bank were close to winning their battle with inflation.
The resulting rise in bond yields has also upset a rally in the stock market, with the S&P 500 losing 2.7 per cent in the past week.
“We’ve had a reality check,” said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street, adding that the easing of monetary policy expected by markets a few weeks ago “looked a little fanciful”.
…
2 minute read
February 21, 2023 3:35 PM PST
Last Updated 5 days ago
BlackRock ‘overweights’ Treasuries, emerging markets stocks
Reuters
A trader works as a screen displays the trading information for BlackRock on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Feb 21 (Reuters) – BlackRock Investment Institute raised U.S. short-term government bonds as well as Chinese and other emerging market stocks to “overweight” on Tuesday, saying investors were realizing that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to become more aggressive in its campaign to subdue inflation.
Macroeconomic data in recent weeks has pointed to a resilient economy with inflation stubbornly far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
“Now bond markets are waking up to the risk the Fed hikes rates higher and holds them there for longer,” BlackRock said in a research note.
article-prompt-devices
BlackRock said it was boosting its allocation of Treasuries on its six- to 12-month horizon to take advantage of higher yields. To balance that adjustment, it said it was reducing its exposure to investment-grade credit.
It also said it was going “overweight” on Chinese and other emerging-market stocks on its six- to 12-month horizon – a bet on China’s economic recovery after Beijing jettisoned its strict “zero COVID” policy in December.
…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/blackrock-overweights-short-term-treasuries-inflation-lingers-2023-02-21/
Is it safe to conclude the Fed has successfully brought down inflation
What’s hilarious is that people were so delusional as to think you could print over $10 trillion in months, then beat inflation in a few months of rate hikes.
5 minute read
February 24, 2023 5:59 AM PST
Last Updated 2 days ago
Two Fed measures see notable recession risk despite strong data
By Michael S. Derby
An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building’s facade in Washington, July 31, 2013.
REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) – Two Federal Reserve regional bank measures that map bond yields to the economic outlook still put better-than-even chances of a U.S. recession by next year, even as recent gauges of activity in everything from consumer spending to hiring show little evidence of a pending slowdown.
A Cleveland Fed measure updated on Thursday now sees a 62.7% chance of a downturn by February 2024, a slight moderation from the 63.3% probability seen a month ago, but still well above the 53.8% probability in December. Meanwhile, a New York Fed measure, updated earlier this month, flags a 57.1% recession probability by January 2024, up from the 47.3% chance seen in December.
The two gauges arrived amid ongoing concern that the U.S. central bank’s historically aggressive campaign of interest rate rises could send the economy into a downturn. The pace of that campaign, which has lifted the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero last March to the current 4.50%-4.75% range, isn’t done. More increases are likely into the summer.
Both models divine their message from the state of the U.S. government bond yield curve. Since October, the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill has been higher than that of the 10-year Treasury note , an atypical state of affairs that forms what’s called a yield-curve inversion. Normally, yields on longer-dated securities are higher than those for shorter maturities to compensate for increased long-term investment risks.
Inversions are a key Wall Street talisman because they frequently appear before economic downturns, even as there is no settled explanation as to whether the phenomenon is a genuine signal of a downturn or simply correlates with recession.
Another commonly tracked measure – the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes – has been inverted for even longer, but San Francisco Fed economists have identified the 3-month versus 10-year spread as having the stronger relationship with recessions. The gap grew to as wide as -132 basis points last month but has since narrowed to about -97.
…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/two-fed-measures-see-notable-recession-risk-despite-strong-data-2023-02-24/
DOW 30 -1.02%
S&P 500 -1.05%
NASDAQ 100 -1.73%
Here’s why history’s most reliable recession indicator no longer works
Matthew Fox
Feb 21, 2023, 9:42 AM
A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange NYSE in New York, the United States, on March 9, 2022. Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty
– The inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable predictors of an imminent recession.
– An inversion of short and long-term bond yields has preceded every recession since World War II.
– But the economic indicator could be less reliable due to high bank reserves, according to Ned Davis Research.
A historically reliable recession indicator began flashing red last year as the difference between long-term and short-term bond yields was flipped, but there’s a reason that the closely watched signal may no longer be reliable, according to Ned Davis Research.
When short-term yields surpass longer term yields, it sends a signal to investors that the economy is on shaky footing and set to enter a downturn.
Since World War II, an inverted yield curve has always preceded an economic recession.
In July 2022, the inverted yield curve once again turned negative as the Fed continued to aggressively hike interest rates. The 2-year Treasury currently yields 4.70%, about 80 basis points more than the 10-year Treasury yield of 3.90%.
As the yield curve inversion deepens, many investors feel certain that the economy faces a recession in 2023.
But a Monday note from Ned Davis Research argues that the yield curve inversion indicator may no longer be a reliable leading indicator of a coming downturn.
That’s because this time around, banks are able to avoid being the biggest losers when it comes to an inverted yield curve thanks to high amounts of deposits.
“In the old days, banks would borrow short and lend long. With an inverted curve, that’s a disastrous recipe for net interest margins. Banks would tighten standards or charge more for loans,” NDR’s chief global macro strategist Joseph Kalish explained.
But after the Great Financial Crisis, banks were required to significantly build up their reserves, which is now helping them weather an inverted yield curve.
“In an ample reserves regime that we’ve been in post-GFC, banks also have plenty of deposits. They don’t need to borrow in the fed funds market to meet reserve requirements. As a result, inverted curves are less effective in the transmission of financial conditions to the real economy,” Kalish said.
…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/inverted-yield-curve-recession-indicator-no-longer-works-bank-reserves-2023-2
“…there’s a reason that the closely watched signal may no longer be reliable, according to Ned Davis Research.”
This time is different.
There’s another recession indicator nobody talks about: Every time since WWII when unemployment hit similar rock bottom levels to current, a recession followed shortly thereafter.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
Here’s to betting that Goldman’s rosy forecast for housing to only get hammered in four cities and barely drop (6%) everywhere else will prove overly optimistic. Prices are already down by double digits since May 2022 in San Diego, and we aren’t on the list.
Markets Insider
Home
Markets
Home prices will sink in these cities that were once red hot as supply starts to overwhelm demand
Filip De Mott
Feb 26, 2023, 9:00 AM
– Home prices are set to drop by double digits in Austin, Seattle, Phoenix, and San Francisco, Goldman Sachs said.
– Those four cities have seen big increases in inventory, and supply is overwhelming demand, analysts wrote in a note.
– Nationwide, the outlook on home prices is less bleak, with Goldman seeing a 6.1% decline.
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Home Prices
Your San Diego Home Is Worth $100,000 Less: CoreLogic
A Goldman Sachs Report found that four American cities, including San Diego, could see home prices decline so fast that we could see a similar housing market crash to 2008.
By Priya Sridhar
• Published January 26, 2023
• Updated on January 28, 2023 at 6:01 pm
Your San Diego Home Is Worth $100,000 Less: CoreLogic
NBC Universal, Inc.
NBC 7’s Priya Sridhar spoke to a realtor and an economist about market options for homebuyers.
A report from the investment bank Goldman Sachs found that San Diego; San Jose; Austin, Texas; and Phoenix were all likely to see sharp declines in home prices over the next year that could lead to a housing market crash similar to what the United States experienced in 2008.
In San Diego, home prices fell almost $100,000 in the past year according to CoreLogic, a California-based financial services company.
“This is really still — because we still have so little inventory — it’s still technically a seller’s market, but I think we’re still heading toward a more neutral market, which is great, but that comes with buyers being more selective on what they’re spending their money on because interest rates are higher,” said Jessica Tangen, a San Diego Realtor.
…
https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/san-diego-home-prices-plummeting/3152881/
“A report from the investment bank Goldman Sachs found that San Diego; San Jose; Austin, Texas; and Phoenix were all likely to see sharp declines in home prices over the next year”
I guess one of those San cities is gonna CR8R.
Just one of them huh?
The best future tellers predict what is already happening.
“The best future tellers predict what is already happening.”
Yep. Just like the Wizard of Oz, when he was a fortune teller back in Kansas, before the twister blew them all away to the Land of Oz.
We, the Whistleblowers of Project Veritas stand with James O’Keefe.
https://twitter.com/Perpetualmaniac/status/1629090011437047814
I’m sure it’s a coincidence this happens to him right after busting Pfizzer. BTW, by coincidence I don’t mean random accident.
I haven’t looked but I’d wager that members of PV’s board of directors are connected to Pfizer and/or WEF.
How bout some citrus flavored CraterTaters.
Eeet! Eeet up!🤣
Orlando, FL Housing Prices Crater 29% YOY As Florida Floods With New, Empty And Defaulted Houses
https://www.movoto.com/fl/32801/market-trends/
Investigator Details Rampant Money Laundering, Election Fraud & Racketeering Sinaloa Cartel Operation — Names AZ Gov. Katie Hobbs As Collaborator
By Jamie White | INFOWARS.COM Sunday, February 26, 2023
In bombshell testimony at the joint Senate and House Elections Committee hearing on Thursday, Breger accused Hobbs and several of the Maricopa County Supervisors, 12 Maricopa County Superior Court judges, and even the mayor of Mesa of taking bribes from the Sinaloa drug cartel in the form of money laundered through a housing deed scam.
She also accused Arizona legislators themselves of being on the take.
Breger, of the Harris/Thaler Law Corporation, claimed that attorney John Thaler investigated money laundering and racketeering in Maricopa County and found 120,000 documents which include “fake notarizations, fake deeds of trust, fraudulent buyers and or sellers of the real property transactions, as well as other companies used in real estate transactions, such as real estate brokers, mortgage companies Title and Escrow companies, real estate inspection companies, service companies.”
Hobbs was named in numerous deeds of trust that were investigated, likely as a mechanism for receiving bribes, she said.
“What can we conclude by these discoveries? The purpose of having a fake deed of trust is to move cash without it being traceable,” she said.
https://www.newswars.com/investigator-details-rampant-money-laundering-election-fraud-racketeering-sinaloa-cartel-operation-names-az-gov-katie-hobbs-as-collaborator/
His name is Big Mike. His name has always been Big Mike, going back to those Chicago bathouse days:
https://www.newsweek.com/michael-obama-man-transgender-maga-conspiracy-theory-latest-viral-1776518
“They’re not sending their best”
https://old.reddit.com/r/obama/
Did they ever figure out the origin of the Wuhan flu?
WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIV
NATIONAL SECURITY
Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, Energy Department Now Says
U.S. agency’s revised assessment is based on new intelligence
A campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, China, in 2020.
PHOTO: HECTOR RETAMAL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
By Michael R. GordonFollow
and Warren P. StrobelFollow
Updated Feb. 26, 2023 4:29 pm ET
WASHINGTON—The U.S. Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, according to a classified intelligence report recently provided to the White House and key members of Congress.
The shift by the Energy Department, which previously was undecided on how the virus emerged, is noted in an update to a 2021 document by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines’s office.
…
origin of the Wuhan flu?
Wuhan (Institute of Virology). Finally catching up?!
In 3 years, you’ll be posting that the “vaccines” are molecular WMDs.
Hmm, feeling frisky tonight. 🙂
“Carrie Traub, the 2023 GAAR president, said New Mexico — and especially the metro area — isn’t a very ‘wealthy place’ and said the way sales prices were increasing last year were untenable. ‘I’m welcoming the correction,’ she said. ‘The rate we were increasing (in sales prices) was unsustainable.’”
Much of New Mexico is impoverished except for Santa Fe and a couple of the ski towns like Taos. How they thought that the madness would continue is beyond me. Smart people with money do not move to New Mexico. Don’t even get me started on the crime problem in ABQ and other cities. It’s a cartel suburb.
Now that inflation is subdued and the Fed is set to reduce interest rates, are stocks a safe bet again?
The Wall Street Journal
Stocks
Investors Are Bracing for Surge in Market Volatility
Bets on a rise in Wall Street’s fear gauge swell to most since March 2020
Investors are growing increasingly concerned about where interest rates will ultimately peak.
Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
By Eric Wallerstein
Feb. 26, 2023 5:30 am ET
Fear is creeping back into the stock market. To protect against a potential downturn, traders are scooping up hedges at the fastest clip since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
More call options betting that the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, will rise have changed hands on an average day in February than at any time since March 2020, Cboe data shows.
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