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Many Of These Investments Were Made During The Fed’s Money Printing Days

A weekend topic starting with Market Watch. “Home prices are falling, but the housing market is still too expensive for most Americans. The median price of a home in the U.S. was about $400,000 — about 5.6 times the real median household income. There may be hope on the horizon: Home prices fell 3% in March, the largest year-over-year drop since 2012, according to Redfin. That follows February’s 1.2% dip. The drop in March was the largest in a decade, which is as far as the company’s records go on home prices.”

From Market Place. “Price increases over the past couple of years have made many so-called affordable cities not so affordable anymore. Take Houston. Manda Rogers teaches sixth grade in the Alief neighborhood of southwest Houston. She used to live in the neighborhood in a small apartment with her two children, but recently, she purchased a townhome on Houston’s southeast side. At the moment, Rogers’ townhome is still bare of even a stick of furniture. She is actually saving money on housing by buying compared to what she paid in rent for her old apartment. But that doesn’t mean her new home came cheap.”

“‘I was working with some counselors on trying to get into a house that was 30% of my income,’ Rogers said. ‘Right now, I think I’m sitting at like 40, 45% with the taxes and stuff included.’ That makes Rogers ‘cost burdened,’ which the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines as anyone who spends 30% or more of their income on housing. On top of that, Rogers now has a longer and more expensive commute. She estimates the combined cost of housing and transportation at 60% of her income.”

KVEO Brownsville in Texas. “Senior Property Tax Consultant Tim Wilkins stated he has been getting a very high call volume regarding complaints of some notices that have been received. ‘All around the state appraisals are going up. Hidalgo issued a little more than 190,000 notices of increase for this year. I think that the housing bubble along with the supply chain constraints that drove up material prices have caused them to increase valuations across the board,’ the CADTax Property Tax Consulting CEO said. ‘Your tax bill goes up so does your escrow component from your mortgage payment and everybody’s getting hit in the wallet pretty hard.'”

“A McAllen homeowner said he was floored by the amount his property appraisal shot up. ‘I feel devastated. $248,000 to $309,000. So that’s a big difference,’ McAllen home and small business owner, Tamark Yepez, said.”

The Morning Call in Pennsylvania. “Jack Gross, CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Cassidon Realty, said it’s a rough market for those looking to purchase their first home. The market has cooled a bit since the pandemic buying frenzy, but it’s still hard for those buyers who need to finance the purchase. Part of the problem is that building affordable housing isn’t profitable for builders, Gross said. Instead of building modest, single-family homes, builders are focused on larger homes, which offer the most profit. Often called ‘McMansions,’ these types of mass-produced homes are overscale — and high priced. ‘For the first-time homebuyer, you’re seeing McMansions because they have to build those in order to make a profit at the end of the day, because of the cost and expenditures that they’re making,’ Gross said.”

“It’s a similar issue with new apartments in Allentown and Bethlehem. They’re gorgeous with plenty of amenities, Gross said. But residents can’t afford them. ‘I’ve seen them. They’re beautiful. They’ve got gyms, maybe pools, private storage areas, got community rooms, plus lobbies. They’re beautiful, but they’re also getting $2,500 rent for them,’ he said. ‘And, you know, that’s not affordable to a lot of people. But again, why is that happening? Because they can’t make any profit any other way. They can’t make by building affordable.'”

“Apartment building construction is surging, with about 3,600 units on the drawing board in 2022, mostly in Northampton County.”

Bisnow Washington DC. “Throughout most parts of the District, rents for Class-A apartments are hovering below pre-pandemic levels, according to Delta Associates’ Q1 multifamily report. Meanwhile, supply is soaring. Class-A deliveries in the District are up by 47% year-over-year, accounting for more than half of the new developments in the region. ‘There’s just a lot of product that’s hitting the market all at the same time, and so therefore you see a pretty concessionary market, just as all that product is trying to get absorbed and get stabilized, and that’s holding down the rent increases,’ said MRP Realty principal Matt Robinson, whose firm has apartment projects in Capitol Riverfront, NoMa and Edgewood.”

Fox Business. “Significant cracks in the $12 trillion private equity business are emerging. The firms will buy public companies, take them private and sell them at a profit years later. They also invest in real estate and trade various securities to earn returns that often beat the markets. Large investors who were interviewed by Fox Business point to the floundering Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, which some sophisticated investors say is understating losses. The fund has a net asset value of $65 billion; it’s a so-called REIT or real estate investment trust fund with holdings in commercial real estate bought at the top of the market when interest rates were at historic lows, these investors say.”

“These same investors also point to issues at Apollo Global Management, which is known for its shrewd deal making and contrarian investment approach. But executives at Apollo are said to be ‘begging’ uninterested investors to put money into its latest fund, the PE firm’s 10th fund, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Like Blackstone, many of these investments were made during the Fed’s money printing days. Higher interest rates have now collapsed not just commercial real estate prices, but the valuations of other portfolio companies.”

“‘These PE funds overpaid for stuff and now we’re saying ‘you’re not generating good returns, so go pound sand,’ said one official at a major public pension fund who spoke on the condition of anonymity. ‘They have taken their eyes off the collective ball and they’re now collectively panicking that they’re badly missing their numbers.’ ‘I bet right now (Blackstone CEO Steve) Schwarzman is calling everyone he knows in DC to get the Fed to back off,’ said one large investor about the PE’s firms’ politically connected billionaire CEO and founder. ‘The Fed won’t, of course, because no one is going to bailout a bunch of fat cats.'”

A press release. “Roughly one of every seven (13.5%) U.S. homes sold by an investor in March sold for less than the investor bought it for, according to Redfin. That’s comparable with February’s 14.5% rate—the highest since 2016. It’s also nearly triple the share of a year earlier. ‘Home flippers aren’t reaping the gains they used to,’ said Phoenix Redfin agent Van Welborn. ‘I recently showed one of my buyers a three-bedroom single-family home in Glendale that was listed by an investor. My client ultimately found another house they liked better, and the investor ended up losing about $20,000. The investor bought the home for $450,000 and sold it for $480,000, but put $50,000 of work into it. The house also sold below the $550,000 list price after sitting on the market for almost four months.'”

“In Phoenix, 30.7% of homes sold by investors in March sold at a loss—the highest share of the 40 metros Redfin analyzed and more than double the national rate. Next came Las Vegas (28%), Jacksonville, FL (20.9%), Sacramento, CA (20.2%) and Charlotte, NC (17.4%). Investors who rent out their properties are also seeing their returns shrink in some areas. The median U.S. asking rent fell 0.4% year over year in March—the first annual drop in three years—and 13 major metros saw larger declines. Owners of short-term rentals are getting hit as well. The Airbnb market is oversaturated with supply, and authorities are imposing tougher restrictions on hosts, driving some to sell, Redfin agents said. Redfin recently reported that investor purchases declined a record 46% year over year in the fourth quarter.”

From USA Today. “Last year, Rishi Khanna, CEO of a Dallas-based software company, had to open his wallet to hire new employees. He shelled out as much as $225,000 for a sales leader and more than $100,000 for a software developer as he vied for candidates who were juggling multiple offers from other companies. Now, salaries for those same positions have dropped to about $150,000 and $85,000, respectively, and Khanna’s company is flooded with applications from far more qualified candidates. As a result, he no longer needs to lure prospective workers with ever-higher pay packages. ‘That competition is gone,’ Khanna says.”

“The tech industry hired too many workers during COVID-19’s online boom and is now paring staff. Khanna says he’s drawing many applications from workers who were laid off last year by tech giants such as Amazon, Google, Twitter and Microsoft. ‘They don’t want to be out of a job for too long,’ he says.”

The Washington Post. “Major companies unleashed more layoffs on Friday, as Lyft and Deloitte announced plans to shed a reported 1,200 jobs each. The news came just days after more layoffs were reported at Facebook’s parent company Meta and at Whole Foods. Companies have blamed an uncertain economy with rising interest rates for a string of layoffs, stretching back months and piling into the tens of thousands in the United States. So far, job losses have been relatively contained within tech, financial services and housing — industries that all saw ballooning growth during the pandemic and are now struggling to readjust. Zoomed out, the labor market is still extremely tight.”

From CNBC. “In June 2021, Google won approval to build an 80-acre campus, spanning 7.3 million square feet of office space, in San Jose, California. The timing couldn’t have been worse. A decadelong bull market in technology had just about run its course, and the following year would mark the worst for tech stocks since the 2008 financial crisis. Rising interest rates and recessionary concerns led advertisers to reel in spending, shrinking Google’s growth and, for the first time in the company’s history, forcing management to implement dramatic cost cuts.”

“The city of San Jose may now be paying the price. What was poised to be a mega-campus called ‘Downtown West,’ with thousands of new housing units and 15 acres of public parks, is largely a demolition zone at risk of becoming a long-term eyesore and economic zero. CNBC has learned that, as part of Google’s downsizing that went into effect early this year, the company has gutted its development team for the San Jose campus.”

“About a year ago, Google announced that it would invest nearly $10 billion in at least 20 key real estate projects in 2022. By then, the company had already completed much of its multiyear land grab of downtown San Jose for the future campus. Things changed in a hurry. On Alphabet’s fourth-quarter earnings call, in February, finance chief Ruth Porat said the company expected to incur costs of about $500 million in the first quarter to reduce global office space, and she warned that other real estate charges were possible in the future.”

“‘We all originally knew that it’s going to be a long-term plan,’ San Jose councilmember Omar Torres, who represents the downtown area, told San Jose Spotlight in February. ‘But yes, it’s definitely concerning that a lot of the money is coming when the cranes are in the air.'”

The Tribune. “San Luis Obispo County home sales dipped in March as overall housing costs and supply grew slightly. Statewide, Californians felt the effects of a slowing housing market, according to the California Association of Realtors’ March 2023 Sales and Price Report. Several locations across SLO County saw home costs fall compared to the previous year. Only Arroyo Grande, Nipomo and Atascadero’s housing markets saw median price increases.”

“Templeton homes saw a precipitous 43.9% decline in median price from March 2022, landing at $846,000 in March. Homes there only spent a median of five days on the market, but only three of the 16 active listings were sold. Those three sales represented a 62.5% decline from the previous year. Despite falling 30.6% from March 2023, Pismo Beach’s median home price of $1.1 million still was one of the highest in SLO County in March. The South County city had 16 active listings in March — 77.8% more than the previous year — and only six sales were reported, a 14.3% drop from March 2022.”

“Morro Bay’s housing market similarly cooled, as homes in the coastal city spent a median of 90 days on the market despite a 19.4% median price drop to $800,000. Fourteen homes were available to buyers, a 16.7% increase from the previous year. However, only five homes sold, a 50% decline from March 2022. Meanwhile, Cambria’s median home price dropped 9.9% to $1.16 million in March. Homes there spent a median of 19 days on the market before selling.”

“With a median home price of $721,000, Paso Robles had the cheapest real estate listings in the county, thanks to a 3.8% price drop from the previous year. There were 52 active listings in the North County city in March, representing a 33.3% uptick in available homes over March 2022. However, sales dropped by 49.1% to 27 in March.”

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This Post Has 49 Comments

      1. Shadow Stats indicates that unemployment rates are at Great Depression levels. Perhaps Fed desires are something else.

        1. One thing I learned over the past 10+ years of helping to interview job applicants, even for skilled positions, is that that there is no shortage of qualified candidates. The only thing there is a shortage of are “walk on water” candidates who have low salary requirements.

          I have observed many times qualified applicants being turned down and no offer made to anyone, and then starting over after a few weeks. Lather, rincse, repeat. When I brought this up in meetings I was told that there was “something wrong” with every candidate. More than once I saw a req cancelled because we refused to fill it. I have seen this at quite a few employers.

          1. “walk on water” candidates

            A couple of years ago, I saw a patent attorney position looking for someone who doesn’t exist given the required scientific background (gene therapy) AND law degree.

        2. I don’t believe unemployment is at recession levels. I don’t know anyone who is unemployed.

  2. ‘They’re beautiful. They’ve got gyms, maybe pools, private storage areas, got community rooms, plus lobbies. They’re beautiful, but they’re also getting $2,500 rent for them,’ he said. ‘And, you know, that’s not affordable to a lot of people. But again, why is that happening? Because they can’t make any profit any other way. They can’t make by building affordable’

    ‘Apartment building construction is surging, with about 3,600 units on the drawing board in 2022, mostly in Northampton County’

    People can’t afford them but 3,600 on the way. This is how people who thought they were going to retire end up collecting shopping carts at walmart.

  3. ‘Templeton homes saw a precipitous 43.9% decline in median price from March 2022’

    Yes, these are small sample sizes. Could be less or worser. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of this sh$thole.

    1. Templeton is really quite nice. The day time heat can easily get to the 100’s in the summer but the nights always cool back to the 50’s making window open sleeping quite nice. The wineries are second only to French vineyards and even that is debatable. About a 1/2 hour drive to the central California coast. Pretty woodsy and near to lake recreation. All in all not a terrible area.

  4. ‘About a year ago, Google announced that it would invest nearly $10 billion in at least 20 key real estate projects in 2022. By then, the company had already completed much of its multiyear land grab of downtown San Jose for the future campus’

    Winnahs! 15,000 shacks and airboxes and they pulled the plug.

    ‘Things changed in a hurry’

    I hope it’s a slow and painful death. You deserve every minute of it.

      1. What they really mean is things are on hold as the company grapples with search traffic plunge as they ponder how the heck they can make any money if AI delivers the answer you are seeking immediately without being stuck in their loop of useless sites that are full of tiny joo ads.

  5. ‘Owners of short-term rentals are getting hit as well. The Airbnb market is oversaturated with supply, and authorities are imposing tougher restrictions on hosts, driving some to sell’

    Seeing more of this too. The toilet scrubber biz model is tested when the crater arrives.

  6. ‘These PE funds overpaid for stuff and now we’re saying ‘you’re not generating good returns, so go pound sand,’ said one official at a major public pension fund who spoke on the condition of anonymity. ‘They have taken their eyes off the collective ball and they’re now collectively panicking that they’re badly missing their numbers’

    You’ll always have walmart to fall back on.

    1. (Blackstone CEO Steve) Schwarzman

      If you watch CNBC (especially before markets open) you will see a lot of these billionaires on. The hosts are super deferential to them. All the billionaires are ‘talking their book’ and wanting lower interest rates sooner and the FDIC/Fed/Treasury to remove rules on the banks and bond markets. The CNBC hosts never call them out …

      1. these billionaires

        Of course they want. Low interest rates adds to their wealth and takes from ours.

      2. If you watch CNBC (especially before markets open) you will see a lot of these billionaires on.

        I never, ever watch that garbage.

        2. “I never, ever watch that garbage”

          If you don’t watch CNBC you will never get Cramer’s wealth building recommendations like Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

          Published March 10, 2023

          Upon the news of SVB’s collapse, a clip went viral of Cramer in February speaking positively about the bank in a list of “The Biggest Winners of 2023… So Far.”

          “The ninth-best performer here today is SVB financial. Don’t yawn,” he told his viewers on Feb. 8. “This company is a merchant bank with a deposit base that Wall Street has been mistakenly concerned about!”

          https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnbcs-jim-cramer-eviscerated-touting-silicon-valley-bank-weeks-disastrous-collapse

  7. “Home prices are falling, but the housing market is still too expensive for most Americans. The median price of a home in the U.S. was about $400,000 — about 5.6 times the real median household income.”

    Prices are still well above historic norms, which I believe are in the range of 2 to 3 times incomes for most of the country. Ergo prices still have further to fall.

    “There may be hope on the horizon: Home prices fell 3% in March, the largest year-over-year drop since 2012, according to Redfin.”

    I thought it was 3.3%. But what is 0.3% to a relitter?

    “That follows February’s 1.2% dip. The drop in March was the largest in a decade, which is as far as the company’s records go on home prices.”

    That’s not very far. The 2007-2009 period was certainly more interesting for large home price declines!

  8. Economy
    A recession is coming — and stock markets won’t come through it unscathed, strategist says
    Published Fri, Apr 21 2023 5:47 AM EDT
    Updated Fri, Apr 21 2023 7:57 AM EDT
    Sam Meredith

    Key Points

    – Chris Watling, chief executive of financial advisory firm Longview Economics, said Friday that he believed a recession was coming.

    – Watling cited what he described as “pretty compelling” and “brutally bad” leading economic indicators.

    – The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell by 1.2% in March, slipping to its lowest level since November 2020.
    …
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/21/a-recession-is-coming-and-equity-markets-may-incur-some-pain-strategist-says.html

  9. “‘I was working with some counselors on trying to get into a house that was 30% of my income,’ Rogers said. ‘Right now, I think I’m sitting at like 40, 45% with the taxes and stuff included.’

    I hope Rogers doesn’t teach maff.

  10. Large investors who were interviewed by Fox Business point to the floundering Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, which some sophisticated investors say is understating losses.

    Die, speculator scum.

    1. you either have mark to market (i.e. more honesty) – or corporate financial folks will lie.

      Banks’ securities holdings have turned negative due to rising rates, which depress the value of bonds. Many banks have responded by increasing the portion of securities in their held-to-maturity, or HTM, portfolios, as opposed to available-for-sale, or AFS, portfolios. Unrealized losses accrue when there is a drop in the value of securities in AFS portfolios, which banks have to mark to market. Securities in HTM do not need to be marked to market.

      Across all publicly traded banks, HTM portfolios accounted for 29.6% of total securities in the second quarter, up from 27.9% in the first quarter and 27.7% a year ago. Five years ago, in the 2013 second quarter, the portion was just 11.8%.

      1. “…corporate financial folks will lie”

        … While hoping and praying for interest rates to return to their lowest levels in the history of money … which ain’t gonna happen …

      1. The bullet train to Schlongville is running at full capacity – think we’re gonna need a new infrastructure project as demand surges.

    2. FLW designs are garbage. I saw an article years ago which stated the houses typically sell for much less because of the problems.

      Check out the roof flashing on that building, where the flat roof meets the wall on the left, and anywhere the roof meets the vertical walls. UGLY A F, and prone to leaks. I see that entire building as one water penetrating disaster.

    3. Photo #20 of 51 reminds me of the Dave Bowman, Beyond the Infinite, bedroom scene at the end of 2001 A Space Odyssey.

  13. A weekend topic starting with Market Watch. “Home prices are falling, but the housing market is still too expensive for most Americans. The median price of a home in the U.S. was about $400,000 — about 5.6 times the real median household income.”

    – Here’s a simple mortgage “maths” example. This can be done with any spreadsheet that supports mortgage calculations (i.e. MS XL, Apple Numbers, etc.):

    Purch. Price: $400,000
    Down Pmnt: 20% $80,000 (Yeah, I know; does anyone do that anymore?)
    Loan Principal, 30 yr. fixed: $320,000
    Payment @ 3% interest rate: $1,349.13/mo.
    Payment @ 6.66% interest rate (current): -$1,349.13/mo (same payment)
    Price @ same payment: $209,940
    Delta price (6.66% vs. 3.0%): -34.4%

    PAYMENT = Principal + Interest (P + I) ONLY.
    Taxes, Insurance, Maintenance (1-4%/yr. typ.), HOA/COA, Sales commissions upon sale (6% typ.), etc., not incl.

    – What matters is the monthly payment. How much can the buyer qualify for (afford)?
    – The Fed pulled demand forward with ultra-low mortgage rates via MBS and U.S. Treas. purchases. This also drove prices “to the moon,” since price is inversely proportional to rates.
    – Housing was unaffordable before rates went up, due to Housing Bubble 2.0, courtesy of the Fed. and Government.
    – Now housing is even more unaffordable, since rates more than doubled.
    – Wages aren’t going to double, and in fact, are negative in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Let’s Go Brandon! Therefore, prices have to come down at least in proportion to the rate increase. In this example of a $400k house w/ 20% down payment, price must fall by -34.4% to have the same monthly mortgage payment.
    – Rent vs. buy: It’s now cheaper to rent vs. buy, and by 50% or more in some locations, based on the monthly rent vs. monthly mortgage payment. Doesn’t include other owner expenses.
    – Peeps that bought at 3% are stuck. Peeps that want to buy can’t afford. Something’s gotta give. Time is a great equalizer. Stay tuned.
    – Summary: In the U.S., the Fed and Government blew another massive housing bubble as part of the “wealth effect.” This cuts both ways; on the way up, and also on the way down (anti-wealth effect).
    – Check back in 2-3 years and see if it’s a good time to buy. Until then, don’t buy, rent, and keep your favorite craft beer and popcorn at the ready.
    – Cheers

    1. Purchase Price: $400,000
      Loan Principal @ 20% down : $320,000 (80% LTV)
      Payment @ 3%: -$1,349.13
      Payment @ 6.66%: -$1,349.13
      Purchase Price at 6.66% and same payment: $262,425 (-34.4% vs. $400,000).
      Loan Principal @ 6.66% and same payment: $209,940 (-34.4% vs. $320,000).

      1. Maybe we’ll do what Canada is doing and just let the amortization increase to 40, 50 or 70 years.

        1. “Maybe we’ll do what Canada is doing and just let the amortization increase to 40, 50 or 70 years.”

          – In a debt-based Ponzi economy, debt needs to continuously increase to keep the system functioning. However, at some point there’s debt saturation, meaning people, corps., governments can’t take on any more debt. No more for me thanks, I’m full! I think we’re there now, esp. with higher rates.
          – I’m sure there will be new schemes proposed to “keep the game going” just a little longer, including longer amortization. You may be right. This is of course unsustainable and insane, but nothing surprises me anymore. The bubble’s bursting now, so things are getting interesting. No more runway.

          1. “I think we’re there now, esp. with higher rates.”

            Indeed, higher rates were the proverbial fork in the bubble. Government’s debt servicing costs are now much higher, so they will be scrambling to raise fees for non-essential services, and enact means testing for everything else.

    2. – % increase in payment for 6.6% vs. 3.0% @ 80% LTV:
      Purchase Price: $400,000
      Loan Principal: $320,000
      Mortgage Payment @ 3.0%: -$1,349/mo
      Mortgage Payment at 6.66%: -$2,056/mo
      Delta Payment: ($2056-$1349)/$1349=+52.4%

      – While monthly rent may or may not be 50% less than the mortgage payment at 6.66% interest rate, it’s likely significantly less, depending on location. Other owner costs not included, which only add to the monthly owner costs.
      – In this example, price needs to come down by -34.4% for same payment.
      – Example only. Evaluate your own local market for Buy vs. Rent decision.

      1. Buy vs. Rent decision.

        Don’t forget that food, fuel, clothes and toys likely will continue to go up, along with taxes, so you’ll have less to speculate on housing. Also do not forget to forecast plummeting house resale values into your spreadsheet. Ten years in debt is a heavy burden. So is 25 or 30.

        Exeter, I hope you are well. Take care of yourself.

      2. “Delta Payment: ($2056-$1349)/$1349=+52.4%”

        Too bad prospective homeowners’ incomes don’t automatically increase to cover higher payments!

        More likely scenario:

        Delta Payment = 0%

        Delta Price = 1 – 1/1.524 = -34.4%

  14. The Financial Times
    Property sector
    US banks on alert over falling commercial real estate valuations
    Lenders increase provisions for losses on property loans as office values drop
    Newly constructed towers in New York’s Hudson Yards. Commercial real estate loans account for about 40% of smaller banks’ total lending, against about 13% of the books of the biggest lenders
    FT Reporters 6 hours ago

    US banks are becoming increasingly worried about falling commercial property valuations and the risk they pose to lenders’ balance sheets, senior executives said this week.

    Office valuations in particular have been pummelled by rising interest rates and many employees’ preference for working from home since the coronavirus pandemic.

    However, financial executives sought to reassure investors that they did not foresee significant systemic risk because holdings are broadly distributed among banks and other institutions.
    …

  16. Stock market forecasts are getting grimmer as recession risks loom. Here are the latest calls from Mike Wilson, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel and other experts.
    Zinya Salfiti
    Apr 22, 2023, 3:00 PM PDT
    A trader looks at market charts on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
    A trader looks at market charts on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on January 18, 2023. ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images

    – Market pundits including Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Siegel and Lisa Shalett have warned that US stocks are entering a danger zone.

    – The banking turmoil and the risk of a recession have spurred some of the recent pessimistic market forecasts.

    – Here is a selection of the most recent stock-market predictions from high-profile investors, analysts and other experts.
    …
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-investment-mike-wilson-ed-yardeni-jeremy-siegel-2023-4

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