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Central Bankers Concluded That The Impossible Was Now Possible

A report from The Times. “Northwest Indiana’s housing market peaked with 12,000 home sales in the seven-county area in 2021 but remains hot. Demand is strong but is waning, said Northwest Indiana Realtor Association CEO Pete Novak. It’s been waning nationally since the beginning of 2022 and in Northwest Indiana since July 2022. ‘We’re in our 14th, 15th, 16th month here where we’ve seen a decline in home sales as well,’ he said. ‘Each year since 2021 we’ve seen a substantial drop. Between 2021 and 2022 there was an 11% and this year were down 17%. That’s almost a third of sales.'”

“It remains a seller’s market, Novak said. In a normal market, sellers used get 92% to 94% of their asking price as a result of negotiation. ‘There were times during the pandemic when the entire market was getting more than the asking price if you can believe that. That’s how crazy the market was. I don’t think I’ll ever see that again in my lifetime,’ he said. ‘That’s changing. It’s balancing more.'”

The American Statesman in Texas. “Mandar and Asmita Shinde are international homebuyers from India who, after seven years of living in Seattle, now call Austin home. Mandar Shinde, a tech business developer for Amazon, originally came to the U.S. from Nagpur, India. Since January, he and his wife, both 40, have been leasing a home in Liberty Hill. But by next summer the Shindes and their 4-year-old son plan to move into a new home in Leander once the house, which Perry Homes will start building soon, is completed. They expect to receive $30,000 in incentives, plus another $5,400 in closing costs if they use Perry Homes’ preferred lender, Mandar Shinde said.”

“He said it made sense to contract to buy a house to take advantage of the current housing market, which he said is ‘sideways’ now — but won’t always be. ‘Once the market goes up, incentives will go away and prices will go up quickly,’ he said. ‘At least you can capitalize on the situation before it goes crazy again.’ Across the Austin region in general, home prices and the volume of sales have been declining since the spring of 2022 as mortgage interest rates have risen. The most recent housing figures, for October, show that sales fell 4.1% in the five-county Austin region year-over-year. Half of the 2,337 houses that changed hands sold for more than $435,000 and half sold for less, for a 7.5% decline in the median price compared with October 2022, the board said.”

The Denver Post. “Colorado’s population is growing at its slowest pace on record, with domestic net migration turning negative last year and the population declines long seen on the Eastern Plains taking hold in one large Front Range county. Colorado is now home to the four most expensive metro housing markets outside a coastal area — Boulder, Denver, Fort Collins and now Greeley, according to the real estate research firm Zonda. But one upside of slower population growth is that the state has chipped away at its housing deficit. ‘We have been on a big bull market (in construction) since we came out of the Great Recession. Did we sell so many homes between 2017 to 2022 that we borrowed from future demand?’ asked Ted Leighty, CEO of the Colorado Association of Home Builders. When it comes to categories like luxury apartments in downtown Denver, too much supply might be a short-term problem.”

“Jefferson County provides a foreshadowing of impacts on what the state’s aging population might look like. Although counties across the Eastern Plains have long struggled with population losses, they have now shown up in heavily populated Jeffco, which has lost an estimated 7,000 people since 2020.”

The Lookout in California. “Santa Cruz County’s housing market picked up its pace a bit in October after a slow start to a typically busy time for local real estate agents. Across the board, the less frenzied market means agents are seeing fewer offers per property, and fewer of those offers going over the asking price. Coldwell Banker agent Jessica Wallace said the persistent high interest rates have kept final prices down. Wallace also said that, on average, properties are selling for about 96% of the asking price. That’s a huge difference from the low interest rate days of 2022 and 2021, when buyers were more likely to pay over the list price. In those years, properties sold for an average of 102.4% and 104% over asking price, respectively.”

“‘And most properties aren’t getting multiple offers at this point, maybe two or three at the most, unless it’s something really special and really underpriced,’ she said, recalling the frenzied pandemic-era market, when properties would routinely get 10 or more offers.”

Yahoo Finance. “During the pandemic, Demi Fox, a homeowner and Realtor, was ultra-focused on upgrading her home, taking on remodeling and DIY projects. But now Fox has put on the brakes and is less willing to dole out money for upgrades for her Simi Valley, Calif., home. ‘We were going to do the kitchen but we’re holding back right now. Looking at the numbers, I said ‘nah,’ Fox told Yahoo Finance. ‘I like using my own money when I remodel. I don’t like to use any kind of loan.’ Fox is among many homeowners who are rethinking their remodeling plans following the boom during the pandemic. Less savings, higher interest rates, and the lack of housing activity in the resale market are among the reasons the industry is bracing for a slowdown.”

“The pandemic unleashed home improvement demand in 2020 and 2021. The unique circumstances of the time made people rethink their relationship with their homes. Financing those projects got easier, too. Three rounds of stimulus checks fattened checking accounts. Historically low interest rates made borrowing cheap. And home equity was soaring because the housing market took off. ‘It was really easy to take cash out or equity out of the home,’ said Eric Finnigan, vice president, research and demographics at John Burns Research & Consulting. ‘We saw a huge spike in cash out refinance activity, which then showed up in account balances for people’s checking accounts and savings accounts.'”

The Toronto Sun in Canada. “For a brief moment the week before last, it seemed there may be a glimmer of a sliver of hope on the horizon for the real estate market. All it took was Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, announcing that the Fed would be holding interest rates. But ten days later, the fixed mortgage rates remain largely unchanged and the bond yields are trending back up again. And, of course, lest the markets be confused about his hawkishness, Powell came back out on Thursday and announced the Fed’s position that the battle against inflation may not yet be won and more hikes are on the table.”

“Hopefully this settles once and for all that anyone attempting to paint a rosy picture out there is either stuck in the denial phase or quite literally has something to sell you. Or perhaps both? With a recession looming and real estate markets appearing to be in a deep freeze everywhere but in Alberta. Social media abounds with side-by-sides of listings of properties bought during the run-up now being sold at gasp-worthy discounts – in some cases landing back in the ballpark of 2018 pricing.”

“So far these aren’t the norm. For now, they’re one-offs reflecting the desperation of highly-leveraged sellers forced to capitulate. But one can assume the desperation is mounting in every single over-leveraged Canadian who has up until now hoped to white knuckle their way through and wait out the storm. Whether that looks like pulling the property to relist in the spring, or opting to rent out the house rather than sell in these market conditions, at a certain point something will have to give.”

The Vancouver Sun. “The New York Times told the world about B.C.’s unusually grim housing crisis last decade when it ran articles with headlines such as the ‘Housing Frenzy that Even Owners Want to End’ and ‘The Wild West of Canadian Political Cash,’ which looked at developers’ outsized influence on governments. Those years of out-of-control, largely unregulated property investments, which caused drastic unaffordability in Metro Vancouver, are captured in bold, and sometimes painful, detail in a new book by David Ley , a University of B.C. geography professor emeritus. He outlines the dark consequences of the blind faith that Canadian and B.C. governments put in libertarian, growth-at-any-cost ideology.”

“A significant part of the problem goes back at least a decade, to when the federal and B.C. governments were desperate to attract foreign capital. The business immigration program, by which the wealthiest could gain entry by ‘investing’ in Canada, brought 200,000 people to Vancouver alone, says Ley. They had tens of billions of dollars to pump into the economy, with the heftiest portion channelled into the ‘asset’ of housing. Large Vancouver property developers, along with those in London and Sydney, opened scores of sales offices in East Asia to serve business-class immigrants and other affluent transnationals. The director of marketing at Vancouver-based Westbank said, ‘China is now a big part of this business … right now I have a rule when we talk about projects, if the Chinese market doesn’t want it, I have no interest in it.'”

“While the federal Conservatives shut down the investor-class immigration program in 2014, the doggedly free-market B.C. Liberals, especially the minister responsible for housing, Rich Coleman, remained gung-ho on funnelling more offshore cash to the housing industry. Meanwhile, the B.C. Liberals chose condo marketer Bob Rennie as their chief fundraiser, welcoming tens of millions of dollars in donations from the development industry, far more than from any other sector.”

“According to Ley, when the NDP defeated the economically libertarian B.C. Liberals in 2016, it was largely because of housing. The trouble is, the damage from that era carries on to this day. As Ron Butler, the Vancouver-raised president of one of Canada’s largest mortgage companies, says: ‘The most important thing to understand about foreign capital is it never goes back.’ No matter if the money comes from China, Iran or the Middle East, Butler says, once here ‘it just sloshes around,’ mostly in real estate.”

“Still, in recent years, federal, provincial and municipal governments are at least starting to share some common ideas, Ley says. They’re recognizing investors are overwhelming wage earners in the housing market. They are recognizing that ‘in major cities, real-estate investment has become global’ and that a ‘freewheeling’ market is vulnerable to tax fraud and money laundering. They also recognize that new housing and rental ‘supply” must be affordable, and that “taxation is one appropriate vehicle to manage speculative demand.'”

News in English. “Never before have there been so many unsold homes on the market in Norway, nearly 20,000 not including those developers are trying to sell in new projects coming online. The real estate brokers’ association Eiendom Norge reported last week that a total of 19,944 homes on the market remained unsold at the end of October. That’s the highest number since the organization started charting sales in January 2009. ‘The supply of homes on offer is high now, but the number of new homes coming on the market is declining,’ said Henning Lauridsen, managing director of Eiendom Norge.”

South China Morning Post. “Joseph Lau Luen-hung, a property magnate and one of Hong Kong’s wealthiest men, said high interest rates are forcing businesspeople to recalculate their investments and potential returns. ‘Whether it’s selling fish balls or [investing in] real restate,’ it should only be done if there is a profit, Lau said. But he stressed that he would not dare to buy property now. ‘It’s better to hold on to the money now.'”

From Mises.org. “Sovereign debt is eating the world. Lining up a financial crash that could make 2008 look like a picnic. How did we get here? In short, governments and central banks deluded themselves into thinking that unlimited deficit spending financed by unlimited money printing won’t do what they’ve done for literally millennia — plunge the economy into stagflation. They are, of course, wrong. And we’re seeing the catastrophe unfold before our eyes.”

“The story begins in the 1970s when Nixon broke the global gold standard, unleashing permanent deficits worldwide. But the latest chapter starts in 2008 when central banks bailed out the financial system by effectively printing trillions of dollars. At the time, everybody knew that much printing would cause inflation, perhaps with a 12 to 18-month delay. But it didn’t. Why? Banks held on to the free trillions to plug the trillion-dollar-sized holes in their balance sheet. Combined with a freebie, China’s manufacturing miracle lowered the cost of consumer goods.”

“Central bankers concluded that the impossible was now possible. Meanwhile, a second useful myth was shattered by Japan: that national debt was deadly. Again, everybody knew that public debt above 100% or 125% of GDP would end the world. But Japan crossed that line 25 years ago. And nothing happened. Now, there are idiosyncratic reasons for Japan — largely the proportion of debt that is domestically held. But the lesson was learned: debt doesn’t matter. So, deficits don’t matter. So printing doesn’t matter, and debt doesn’t matter.”

“Both are contrary to literally millennia of economic history. In fact, printing money not only leads to inflation, it is literally the only thing that leads to long-term inflation. We have hundreds of defaults as evidence that governments will always default when the debt gets big enough. In fact, we’ve had 14 sovereign defaults since Japan crossed 100%. Unfortunately, this dangerous confidence went from belief to reality worldwide with covid. To bribe voters into lockdowns, countries around the world spent money as fast as humanly possible. And central bankers financed those deficits as fast as humanly possible.It all came to roughly $10 trillion in new money in just a few years. In the US, by 2021 roughly one in three dollars had fresh ink on it.”

“This scared central banks, who know that out-of-control inflation puts their independence at risk — Congress will take it away if voters get too angry. They first responded by crushing the real economy with rate hikes to bring down private spending so the government could keep spending. But now we’re seeing the second shoe to drop from terrified central banks: they’re actually pulling back from financing government deficits. The Fed has already reduced its balance sheet by over a trillion, selling off federal debt to try and rein in inflation.”

“This is effectively taking central banks out of the game because they can’t finance government deficits if they’re simultaneously trying to drain money from the economy. Put it together and debt-to-GDP ratios over 100% in basically the entire world — nearly 150% for the US — are running into paralyzed central bankers. This is driving investors to fear that maybe major governments can’t handle the debt and that maybe they will default. The final piece of the crisis is the shrinking economy.”

“Because the primary way central banks fight inflation is by choking off the private economy with interest rate hikes. That’s precisely how central bankers responded to the inflation of these past two years, hiking rates a total of 276 times worldwide. This is now crashing most of the world economy into recession. Recession, historically, makes deficits and debt even worse — by several trillion in the case of the US. So it’s the three horsemen, a perfect storm of inflation, sovereign debt, and recession.”

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This Post Has 88 Comments

  2. ‘But by next summer the Shindes and their 4-year-old son plan to move into a new home in Leander once the house, which Perry Homes will start building soon, is completed’

    You got schlonged Mandar.

    1. We moved to Tampa from Liberty Hill. I could not imagine being from India and living in the land of BBQ.

      Hey Mandar let’s go shoot some hogs.

  3. ‘The unique circumstances of the time made people rethink their relationship with their homes. Financing those projects got easier, too. Three rounds of stimulus checks fattened checking accounts. Historically low interest rates made borrowing cheap. And home equity was soaring because the housing market took off. ‘It was really easy to take cash out or equity out of the home’

    Sound lending!

  4. ‘side-by-sides of listings of properties bought during the run-up now being sold at gasp-worthy discounts – in some cases landing back in the ballpark of 2018 pricing’

    So all of the minor respiratory illness is gone Toronto, and then some?

  5. ‘Meanwhile, the B.C. Liberals chose condo marketer Bob Rennie as their chief fundraiser, welcoming tens of millions of dollars in donations from the development industry, far more than from any other sector’

    Comment by southseacompany
    2012-06-03 12:52:06

    Interesting link to Bob Rennie’s comments. BTW, in a speech to Vancouver’s Urban Development Institute (a local developer’s lobby), Bob calls Ben Jones and the Housing Bubble Blog irresponsible and lacking in facts.

    Quite angrily, actually. Never seen Bob so upset.

    Here’s a link to the vid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKfWHevR3RU

    1. May 4, 2021 at 6:12 am Edit

      A Long Rant About Bob Rennie : vancouver – Reddit
      https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/…/a_long_rant_about_bob_rennie/

      May 16, 2016 – One year ago I was blood boiling angry with Vancouver “Condo King” Bob Rennie. I recall distinctly thinking “I want to … You’re just rambling about how people are misattributing the housing bubble as being the result of foreign investment and idolizing an asshole developer.

      Sep 13, 2017
      Brace for more housing shortages, warns Vancouver real estate guru

      torqcampbell on Twitter: “bob rennie: current title holder of the biggest …
      https://twitter.com/torquilcampbell/status/744880110449332224
      Jun 20, 2016 – … bob rennie: current title holder of the biggest asshole in canada

      ASKBiblitz on Twitter: “Crash! And take that asshole Bob Rennie with it …
      https://twitter.com/leobiblitz/status/613724921789743104

      And the “Winners” are … the Worst of Vancouver, 2015 | scamcouver
      https://scamcouver.blog/2015/09/…/and-the-winners-are-the-worst-of-vancouver-201…

      Sep 28, 2015 – BMW (possibly an M5, possibly belonging to Bob Rennie) … be an asshole.

      2013: The Scam Reviewed | scamcouver
      https://scamcouver.blog/2013/12/31/2013-the-scam-reviewed/

      Dec 31, 2013 – bob rennie is an asshole

      http://housingbubble.blog/?p=4710

  6. “It all came to roughly $10 trillion in new money in just a few years. In the US, by 2021 roughly one in three dollars had fresh ink on it.”

    This was done for a minor respiratory illness that for the young and healthy has an infection fatality rate of statistically near zero.

    The greatest wealth transfer from the middle class and working class to billionaires and multi millionaires, because of a minor respiratory illness that for the young and healthy has an infection fatality rate of statistically near zero.

    How much more are you paying for FOOD today versus four years ago, because of a minor respiratory illness that for the young and healthy has an infection fatality rate of statistically near zero?

    How much has your overall standard of living dropped in the last four years, because of a minor respiratory illness that for the young and healthy has an infection fatality rate of statistically near zero?

    One in four Americans recently polled say they personally know someone who died from the alleged “vaccines” that were mandated on the condition of losing your employment, for a minor respiratory illness that for the young and healthy has an infection fatality rate of statistically near zero.

    They think we’re going to stop talking about this. They think we’re going to forget about all of this. They think they can declare a “pandemic amnesty” and just walk away from it (with their pockets stuffed full of newly printed money).

    Think again, because that’s not how it’s going down.

    Learn from the Nuremberg Trials of 1946, because it’s gonna take that, and more.

    No amnesty.

    Only nooses ☠️

      1. Given how few are lining up for the latest booster, I’d say that most aren’t buying the global warming explanation. But we are being told that the real reason people aren’t getting the latest booster is because it’s hard to find.

        That sounds like a Yogi Berra quote: The booster jab is scarce because no one is getting inoculated..

  7. ‘But the lesson was learned: debt doesn’t matter. So, deficits don’t matter. So printing doesn’t matter, and debt doesn’t matter. Both are contrary to literally millennia of economic history’

    Central bankers aren’t economists. It’s like a weather man getting on TV and telling you how he’s going to change the weather tomorrow.

    2. It turns out there really is no such thing as a free lunch, just like my MICROeconomics professor told us on the first day of my freshman economics class. Go figure!

    2. What good does it do to “clean up” open air drug markets? It’s not going to make the people there any less addicted. Unless these drug users are locked up into forced treatment, they will be back to looting and using by next spring.

      1. “Unless these drug users are locked up into forced treatment, they will be back to looting and using by next spring.”

        Our economy has little use for a treated addict-thief.

  9. “Colorado’s population is growing at its slowest pace on record, with domestic net migration turning negative last year and the population declines long seen on the Eastern Plains taking hold in one large Front Range county.

    Biden’s globalist imports are moving in, and the productive and successful are voting with their feet rather than live under Communism.

  10. Re: printing money not only leads to inflation

    Correction. Printing money IS inflation – monetary, that is. Just another name for currency debasement which has led to the demise of empires through the ages. What is popularly called inflation is the price inflation (general rise in prices of everything and not the self-correcting price fluctuation due to supply/demand in a free market) caused by it just as when measured by a shortened yardstick everything becomes nominally taller.

    2. And the You Ess of Ey is addicted to $2T deficits. The currency will continue to be debased and the CPI, even the bogus one they report, will remain stubbornly high as Americans continue to fret over making ends meet.

      My car insurance payment is due Wednesday. It’s gone up 33% in just a couple of years. I’ve tried shopping around and it’s even more expensive with other insurers. Electricity also costs more per kwhr. Was 9 cents 3 years ago, now it’s 12. And of course gasoline is still up. An oil change that cost $40 is now $55., etc. And they tell us that inflation is under control.

      2. Yep – my car insurance is up 35% from last year, up 50% since 2020 – for a 17 year old car with just liability and uninsured motorist. I have all the discounts and no accidents.

      3. “An oil change that cost $40 is now $55.”

        Five quarts of Valvoline full synthetic 5-20w is $29, and a Mobile1 oil filter is $8, both retail at Walmart, and I do the labor.

  11. “‘Once the market goes up, incentives will go away and prices will go up quickly,’ he said. ‘At least you can capitalize on the situation before it goes crazy again.’”

    Mania thinking is alive and well, as every buyer assumes high future real estate price inflation will eventually reward him for paying an insanely high purchase price today.

  12. And, of course, lest the markets be confused about his hawkishness, Powell came back out on Thursday and announced the Fed’s position that the battle against inflation may not yet be won and more hikes are on the table.”

    The Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed have no intention of “fighting inflation.” Instead, they’ll inflate (print) away all government and corporate debt and try to keep their asset bubbles & Ponzi markets levitated with more Plunge Protection Team stealth interventions in the debt & equity markets.

  13. Propaganda and lies.

    Washington Post — The economy is booming, but inflation continues to sour Americans (11/13/2023):

    “President Biden has played a considerable role in improving Americans’ financial situation, through legislative victories that have yielded a surge in government funding and related private investment, which is building electric vehicles, new bridges, airport upgrades and a host of other infrastructure and green energy projects that have juiced the economy.”

    LIES

    “Yet Americans are still angry that prices rose as much as they did, showing up in consumer sentiment that has fallen for three straight months. Just 30 percent of voters approve of President Biden’s handling of the economy, the lowest reading since he took office, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”

    The lowest? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

    “That disconnect between a booming economy and how Americans feel about it appears to be widening at a critical time ahead of next year’s presidential election. It is also shaping up to be a key liability for the White House, even as its policies are bolstering job creation and business investments.

    “‘Bidenomics’ is the right plan. It’s the right approach, and we need to just work every day to show Americans how it is delivering for them around the kitchen table,” Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council, said in an interview. “That’s our focus: trying to make that connection that clean drinking water, affordable high-speed internet, lower drug prices, better jobs — these are all things the president is delivering every day.”

    LIES

    “So far, the message appears to be falling flat. A recent New York Times/Siena poll shows that a vast majority of voters in battleground states — 81 percent — say the economy is “fair” or “poor.” Meanwhile, 59 percent of voters in those states said they trusted Trump’s handling of the economy over Biden’s.”

    https://archive.li/DQzS8

    81 percent is that a lot?

    1. Well, to be fair, there is something to be said for funding programs for infrastructure projects or developing new tech. However:

      1. Too much of the funding is siphoned off to do-nothing orgs.
      2. Even if tech is developed and new labs and factories are built, we don’t have enough capable workers who are willing to maintain that program through completion.

      Our country can’t survive on activism, gaming, “working at home,” or “influencing.” We need more people to get out there and do STUFF, before our country falls apart.

  14. Boston’s plan to ban fossil fuels in new buildings goes up in smoke

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/boston-s-plan-to-ban-fossil-fuels-in-new-buildings-goes-up-in-smoke/ar-AA1jOceU

    Oh no, the cost to charge my EV just doubled

    Ivy’s rate is 62 cents per kWh, tax-inclusive. That means that a full charge of my EV’s battery – 58 kWh, if you want to check my calculations – would cost me about $36. That gets me a range of about 400 km in my Hyundai Ioniq 5, under ideal conditions.

    Ivy’s previous policy, based on time, could deliver the same charge for under $16. In other words, I’m facing a price increase of 125 per cent.

    Now, let’s do some comparative shopping, starting with gas. If an average gas-powered vehicle can travel 100 km on 8 litres of fuel, my 400-km range would cost the equivalent of $51.20 in gas (assuming a cost of $1.60 per litre).

    I know what you’re thinking: Boo-hoo. Dude signed up for a fancy EV and now he’s whining about the rising cost.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-oh-no-the-cost-to-charge-my-ev-just-doubled/

    1. Ivy’s rate is 62 cents per kWh

      Holy Cannoli! That’ 5x of what I pay. At those rates it would cost about $500-600 to cool my house per month in the summer.

  15. “This is now crashing most of the world economy into recession. Recession, historically, makes deficits and debt even worse — by several trillion in the case of the US.”

    That’s rather like blaming today’s high housing costs on the Pandemic.

    It’s not recessions that make deficits and debt even worse, but the central bankers’ favored hair-of-the-dog hangover cure, in the form of money printing by whatever name (most recently Quantitative Easing).

  16. “Hopefully this settles once and for all that anyone attempting to paint a rosy picture out there is either stuck in the denial phase or quite literally has something to sell you.”

    These are words to put under a magnet on the fridge.

    1. Wall Street’s Gloomiest Hedge-Fund Manager on ‘a Huge Crash Coming’
      By Jen Wieczner, New York features writer who covers Wall Street, business, and crypto
      Mark Spitznagel sees a black swan coming.
      Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photo: Getty

      Mark Spitznagel is not known for his optimism. Rather, think of him as Wall Street’s worst-case-scenario guy. His hedge fund, Universa Investments, offers investors something like an insurance policy for their stocks: If a black-swan event causes financial markets to crash, his portfolio of investments is designed to skyrocket in value. His investors don’t put everything into Universa, but allocating a few percent of a portfolio into the fund could counterbalance the losses in case things really go sideways. Last time something like that happened — in 2020 when COVID was spreading around the world and markets woke up to the severity of the situation — Spitznagel’s approach worked well, producing returns as high as 4,000 percent while the S&P 500 went into freefall. In general, Universa hedges the market by buying options on stock indices. So when everyone else is doing badly, Spitznagel hopes to do very well. The rest of the time, he fully expects to lose a little bit of money.
      …
      https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/11/will-the-stock-market-crash-this-hedge-funder-thinks-so.html

  18. The Denver Post.
    Pandemic derailed Colorado’s population growth. Can the state get back on track?
    By Aldo Svaldi | The Denver Post
    November 12, 2023 at 6:00 a.m.

    “Net migration in Colorado last year was 14,924, but international migration drove that. Colorado lost 9,324 people to domestic migration, the movement of people from state to state.”

    – I’m sure all of those international immigrants are legal/legitimate, highly educated and highly skilled workers ,with large bank accounts. The reality is just the opposite: highly dependent, D voters for life, as per the plan. Replacement theory in action.

    “It lost residents to all adjacent states — Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Arizona — as well as many southeastern states, including a net outflow of nearly 10,000 people to Florida.”

    “The forecast also assumes Colorado retirees age in place and don’t cash out the huge pile of home equity they have built up in recent years and move to somewhere warmer and more affordable.”

    – Bad assumption. I’m leaving and taking my tax $ with me.

    “Higher housing costs make Colorado less attractive to young adults looking to relocate to start their careers as well as the companies looking to hire them. And it hinders the ability of those transplants, not to mention natives, when it comes time to start a family.”

    – As in most of the U.S. now, it’s at least 50% more expensive to buy than to rent a shack in our jacked-up housing market courtesy of guberment “help,” including the Fed. Colorado is no exception.

    “Colorado is now home to the four most expensive metro housing markets outside a coastal area — Boulder, Denver, Fort Collins and now Greeley, according to the real estate research firm Zonda. But one upside of slower population growth is that the state has chipped away at its housing deficit, which fell from around 127,000 units in 2019 to 101,141 in 2021, according to a study from the advocacy group Up for Growth.”

    – The article forgot to mention far-Left politics as another negative. It’s becoming California central. Denver is a lot like other blue cities as it makes the transformation into a third world hell-hole, as per the plan. They could clean it up, but unlike SF, CA, Poo Bear isn’t coming to visit this week. 🤡 🌏.

    – Colorado’s had its day in the sun. Now it must deal with the largely uncontrolled growth, crowds, high housing prices, and liberal politics. I’ve had enough.

    – BTW, it wasn’t the pandemic that caused this.

    1. +1 on all of this.

      I’m trying to move 100+ miles south of Denver, but I’ll still be in the state. Which is becoming increasingly worrisome, considering I will still be governed by the communists in the state capitol…

      1. the communists in the state capitol

        Who are stamping their little feet since prop HH went down in flames. The TABOR surplus is currently somewhere between $3-4B and the thought of having to refund it to taxpayers must be killing them.

        They wanted voters to trade a refund that could be as high as $2000 per household for a $400-$500 (the actual amount was very unclear in the text) property tax reduction. So now it’s back to the drawing board for them. They won’t give up until they can persuade or trick voters into giving up those refunds.

    2. Pandemic derailed Colorado’s population growth. Can the state get back on track?

      Why get back on track? Are the traffic jams in Dumver not bad enough already? Are there insufficient homeless? Not enough foreign invaders? Are shanty prices not high enough? Is there a fresh water surplus?

  19. Those years of out-of-control, largely unregulated property investments, which caused drastic unaffordability in Metro Vancouver, are captured in bold, and sometimes painful, detail

    This whole article is one big hit-piece on supposedly “Wild West”, “freewheeling”, “libertarian”, “unregulated”, etc., etc., political philosophy.

    the doggedly free-market B.C. Liberals, especially the minister responsible for housing, Rich Coleman, remained gung-ho on funnelling more offshore cash to the housing industry.

    Nice try, but anyone who wants the government to funnel cash to some industry or another, is not a “free market” politician, dogged or otherwise.

    1. The solution to all of the world’s problems is more Communism for the little people. Of course, the people who matter will be exempt from such strictures. as they always are.

      1. I have to wonder if that helicopter really just accidentally crashed in the Mediterranean, or if something else happened.

  21. Joe Biden’s America.

    New York Times — ‘A Monster’: Super Meth and Other Drugs Push Crisis Beyond Opioids (11/13/2023):

    “The United States is in a new and perilous period in its battle against illicit drugs. The scourge is not only opioids, such as fentanyl, but a rapidly growing practice that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention labels “polysubstance use.”

    Over the last three years, studies of people addicted to opioids (a population estimated to be in the millions) have consistently shown that between 70 and 80 percent also take other illicit substances, a shift that is stymieing treatment efforts and confounding state, local and federal policies.

    “It’s no longer an opioid epidemic,” said Dr. Cara Poland, an associate professor at the Michigan State University College of Human Medicine. “This is an addiction crisis.”

    The non-opioid drugs include those relatively new to the street, like the animal tranquilizer xylazine, which can char human flesh, anti-anxiety medications like Valium and Klonopin and older recreational stimulants like cocaine and meth. Dealers sell these drugs, plus counterfeit Percocet and Xanax pills, often mixed with fentanyl.

    The incursion of meth has been particularly problematic. Not only is there is no approved medical treatment for meth addiction, but meth can also undercut the effectiveness of opioid addiction therapies. Meth explodes the pleasure receptors, but also induces paranoia and hallucinations, works like a slow acid on teeth and heart valves and can inflict long-lasting brain changes.

    The Biden administration has been pouring billions into opioid interventions and policing traffickers, but has otherwise lagged in keeping pace with the evolution of drug use. There has been comparatively little discussion about meth and cocaine, despite the fact that during the 12-month period ending in May 2023, over 34,000 deaths were attributed to methamphetamine and 28,000 to cocaine, according to provisional federal data.”

    https://archive.li/feuze

    Open borders have consequences.

    1. you’d think the drug addicted “homeless” problem would solve itself, with most of them eventually OD’ing but JFC it seems the zombies never decrease in number, while sucking up more & more of taxpayer funds thru all the various poverty pimps.

      1. For everyone that OD’s, two take their place.

        An ever growing number of people cannot function in the modern world. They are unemployable for the most part, and even if they could hold down a menial job, they still can’t afford the rent.

        I know the saying says to not attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence. Bit there seems to be a bumper crop of malice these days. Or as another saying goes: some people just want to see the world burn.

  22. Joe Biden’s America.

    Russia Today — Most Americans feel poorer under Biden – poll (11/13/2023):

    “A majority of US voters are dissatisfied with President Joe Biden’s economic policies, according to the latest monthly poll conducted by the Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

    According to the findings, some 61% of respondents said they disapproved of Biden’s handling of the economy, while only 36% approved.

    Nearly 70% claimed that Biden’s economic policies have either hurt the American economy or had no impact on it. Some 33% stressed that the president’s actions have “hurt the economy a lot.” Just 26% saw Biden’s policies as beneficial, while only 14% believe their finances have improved since the president took office.

    Some 82% of respondents stated that they were especially worried about rising prices and the failure of the current administration to deal with the problem.”

    https://www.rt.com/business/587165-americans-poor-biden-policies/

    82% is that a lot?

    2. 82% is that a lot?

      And still, a large portion of that 82% will pull the D lever next November, because orange man bad

      1. Listen to the callers on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal who defend Brandonomics, these people are delusional. Keep a barf bag handy…

  25. Oxford AstraZeneca Covid jab was ‘defective’, claims landmark legal case

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine has been branded “defective” in a multi-million pound landmark legal action that will suggest claims over its efficacy were “vastly overstated”.

    The pharmaceutical giant is being sued in the High Court in a test case by Jamie Scott, a father-of-two who suffered a significant permanent brain injury that has left him unable to work as a result of a blood clot after receiving the jab in April 2021. A second claim is being brought by the widower and two young children of 35-year-old Alpa Tailor, who died after having the jab made by AstraZeneca, the UK-based pharmaceutical giant.

    The test cases could pave the way for as many as 80 damages claims worth an estimated £80 million over a new condition known as Vaccine-induced Immune Thrombocytopenia and Thrombosis (VITT) that was identified by specialists in the wake of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine rollout.

    Independent studies show the AstraZeneca vaccine was incredibly effective in tackling the pandemic, saving more than six million lives globally in the first year of the rollout. Last year, the World Health Organisation said the vaccine was “safe and effective for all individuals aged 18 and above” and that the adverse effect that has prompted the legal action was “very rare”.

    The vaccine, which was heralded at its launch by Boris Johnson as a “triumph for British science”, is no longer used in the UK. The Government recommends three other vaccines for its autumn booster programme.

    In the months following the rollout, the potential serious side effect of the AstraZeneca jab was identified by scientists. Following this, it was recommend it no longer be given to the under-40s in the UK because the risk of receiving the jab outweighed the harm posed by Covid.

    AstraZeneca last night told the Telegraph that patient safety was its “highest priority”, that its vaccine, called Vaxzevria, had “continuously been shown to have an acceptable safety profile”, and that regulators around the world “consistently state that the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks of extremely rare potential side effects”.

    It is understood AstraZeneca, in its legal response, denies causing Mr Scott’s injuries.

    Official figures from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) show at least 81 deaths in the UK are suspected to have been linked to the adverse reaction that caused clotting in people who also had low blood platelets. In total, almost one in five people who suffered from the condition died as a result, according to the MHRA’s own figures.

    Victims and their lawyers question the Government’s monitoring of the rollout and point out that while Germany suspended the vaccine’s use for the under 60s at the end of March 2021 over the risk of rare blood clots. In the UK, the joint committee on immunisation and vaccination – which advises the government – said on April 7 that adults under 30 should be offered an alternative to the AstraZeneca jab. The following month this was amended to adults under 40.

    Official figures obtained under a Freedom of Information request show that out of 148 payouts made by the Government under the Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme, which provides compensation to those injured by vaccines or to bereaved next-of-kin, at least 144 went to recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Fewer than five people under the scheme received vaccines other than AstraZeneca.

    Families complain the amount paid out under the scheme – a fixed tax-free sum of £120,000 – is insufficient, prompting them to bring the legal cases in the High Court against AstraZeneca.

    The claim is being brought by Mr Scott under the Consumer Protection Act 1987 and argues that the AstraZeneca vaccine was “defective” in that it was not as safe as individuals were entitled to expect.

    The case will raise questions about what the UK authorities knew about concerns over the vaccine and how they were handled.

    An examination of WhatsApp messages sent by or to Matt Hancock, the then health secretary, obtained by The Telegraph as part of the Lockdown Files and which have been passed to the Covid public inquiry, suggest concerns were aired by US authorities. AstraZeneca never in the end applied for a licence in the US.

    At the time, a number of European countries were pausing the vaccine’s rollout over fears it caused clotting in some people.

    The test case was lodged by Mr Scott after he almost died after receiving the vaccine.

    Mr Scott suffered a catastrophic bleed on the brain and doctors called his wife, Kate, three times to tell her to come to the hospital to say goodbye to him.

    Mrs Scott said the couple were being forced to sue AstraZeneca because the Government’s compensation scheme, and the £120,000 paid out to her husband, was inadequate.

    Mr Scott, who was 44 when he had the jab, has had to give up his job as an IT software developer. Mrs Scott said: “We are private people but we cannot stand the injustice of it. We have been lobbying the Government for 18 months for fair compensation for the injury caused by the vaccine.

    “We were told by the Government the vaccine was safe and effective but what’s happened to Jamie has been life changing and their [AstraZeneca] vaccine caused that.”

    Mrs Scott is seeking to raise funds to pay for the legal cases. “AstraZeneca cannot continue to ignore the circumstances in which their vaccine has caused devastating injury and loss,” Mrs Scott has written in an open letter. “Our legal case will seek to hold AstraZeneca to account but we need to build a significant fighting fund to get justice.”

    On the complex issue of the vaccine’s efficacy, the court documents draw on a ruling by the Prescription Medicines Code of Practice Authority (PMCPA), which said in July last year that AstraZeneca had breached its code in using the repeated use of the word “safe” in a press release in December 2020. The PMCPA also ruled it had breached its code of practice in failing to disclose the absolute risk reduction of having the vaccine.

    The particulars of claim state: “In fact, the absolute risk reduction concerning COVID-19 prevention was only 1.2 per cent, and the PMCPA concluded in response to the complaint… that the information provided in the press release as to the efficacy of the vaccine was misleading because members of the public reading the press release might assume that the published efficacy rate was an absolute risk rate (in which case the published efficacy rate vastly overstated the efficacy of the vaccine).”

    The legal action will also examine the role of the Government in reassuring the public after Mr Hancock authorised an indemnity for AstraZeneca in the “very unexpected event of any adverse reactions that could not have been foreseen through the robust checks and procedures that have been put in place”.

    Lawyers point out in the legal claim that Mr Hancock, in an accompanying departmental minute, said: “The data so far on this vaccine suggests that there will be no adverse reactions, and so no liability.”

    The particulars of claim state: “Public statements by the Government as to the safety of the vaccine are relevant circumstances to be taken into account in considering the level of safety that persons generally were entitled to expect from the AZ vaccine.”

    Writing for The Telegraph, Sarah Moore, partner at Hausfeld, the law firm bringing the claim, says: “The group of individuals whom we represent have always been clear: they do not dabble in anti-vaccine conspiracy theories. However, it is plainly factually inaccurate to claim that vaccines do no harm given the experience of our client group – the vaccine injured and bereaved.

    “By beginning a legal battle against AstraZeneca, the vaccine injured and bereaved will use the law to seek accountability and compensation for the deaths of their loved ones and the life-changing injuries that many in the group have sustained.”

    The second claim is being brought by Anish Tailor, whose wife died in April 2021, just under a month after having the vaccine. An inquest in September 2021 determined she died from blood clots and bleeding on the brain caused by “vaccine-induced immune thrombosis and thrombocytopenia”. According to the claim lodged in the High Court, Mrs Tailor’s family are seeking damages of up to £5 million.

    In a statement AstraZeneca said: “We do not comment on ongoing litigation matters,” but it added: “Patient safety is our highest priority and regulatory authorities have clear and stringent standards to ensure the safe use of all medicines, including vaccines. Our sympathy goes out to anyone who has lost loved ones or reported health problems.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-jab-was-defective-claims-landmark-legal-case/ar-AA1jBqHn

    1. Independent studies show the AstraZeneca vaccine was incredibly effective in tackling the pandemic, saving more than six million lives globally in the first year of the rollout.

      The same people who told us it was safe.

      Most people I know who were jabbed got sick more than once. Very effective indeed.

      1. Most people I know who were jabbed got sick more than once. Very effective indeed.

        While I do not know their jab status because my work is a don’t ask don’t tell outfit, many people take waaaaay more sick time then a few years ago. Like, each change of season some of the same folks are out a few days.

  26. ‘properties bought during the run-up now being sold at gasp-worthy discounts – in some cases landing back in the ballpark of 2018 pricing. So far these aren’t the norm. For now, they’re one-offs reflecting the desperation of highly-leveraged sellers forced to capitulate. But one can assume the desperation is mounting in every single over-leveraged Canadian who has up until now hoped to white knuckle their way through and wait out the storm’

    The writer is a UHS I believe. Do you use comps in K-da? Do you realize you had more than gasp worthy peso increases during minor respiratory illness? Get out a chart man. And you guys are leveraged to the eyeballs.

  27. Would you consider buying a home in one of the 25 US markets where prices are falling?

    PS Try not to catch yourself a falling knife.

    1. Home prices are falling fastest in these 25 cities, helping buyers escape the least affordable housing market since 1985
      James Faris Nov 12, 2023, 2:45 AM PST
      An above shot of houses, yards, and streets.
      The National Association of Realtors’ housing-affordability index averaged 93.5 from July to September — a level not seen since the fourth quarter of 1985. adamkaz/Getty Images

      Affording a house in the US hasn’t been this difficult since “Back to the Future” was the top movie in theaters.

      Home affordability fell again in the third quarter to its lowest level since 1985, shown by data from the National Association of Realtors shared exclusively with Insider.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-housing-market-falling-home-prices-mortgage-rates-affordability-2023-11#11-kennewick-washington-11

      1. This was a response to…

        “Would you consider buying a home in one of the 25 US markets where prices are falling?”

  28. ‘Combined with a freebie, China’s manufacturing miracle lowered the cost of consumer goods’

    And hollowed out the US manufacturing industry driving wages down. That’s why there was no inflation with all the money printing until China took a CCP virus sh$t and inflation became entrenched.

  32. Are you concerned that a bursting credit bubble may spark a conflagration that burns down the whole forest?

    1. One of Wall Street’s biggest bears says a ‘huge crash’ is coming as markets are in the biggest credit bubble in history
      Jennifer Sor
      Nov 13, 2023, 10:40 AM PST
      Spencer Platt/Getty Images

      – Financial markets are headed for a “huge crash,” according to Mark Spitznagel.

      – The bearish hedge fund manager told Intelligencer he thinks the US is in the biggest credit bubble in history.

      – Bursting that bubble could “burn down the whole forest,” he warned.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-economy-debt-credit-bubble-interest-rates-2023-11

      1. ‘Bursting that bubble could “burn down the whole forest,” he warned.’

        Not to worry!

        As I often love to remind y’all, a closely-watched pot never boils over.

    2. con·fla·gra·tion
      /ˌkänfləˈɡrāSH(ə)n/
      noun
      an extensive fire which destroys a great deal of land or property.
      “tinder-dry conditions sparked fears of a conflagration in many drought-devastated communities”
      synonyms: fire, blaze, flames, inferno, firestorm, holocaust

    3. Do you worry the Chinese banks that tried to rescue Evergrande may go the way of FTX when SBF tried to save crypto?

      1. China debt crunch
        China bank stocks face crisis of confidence over bad debt risk
        Investors see uncertainty over extent of lenders’ nonperforming loans
        A machine counts yuan banknotes at a commercial bank in Beijing.
        NORIYUKI DOI
        November 14, 2023 06:23 JST

        SHANGHAI — Shares in Chinese banks are languishing at near-record-low valuations as investors cast a wary eye on lenders’ exposure to the troubled real estate sector.

        The banking sector accounts for roughly 10% of the value of China’s stock market. Its slump also reflects the risk of an economic downturn in China.

        In mid-October, throngs of customers descended upon branches of Bank of Cangzhou, a regional lender serving the city of the same name in Hebei province, demanding to withdraw their deposits.

        Triggering the uproar was a social media post claiming to list the banks that have extended loans to debt-laden property developer China Evergrande Group. Bank of Cangzhou was listed as lending 3.4 billion yuan ($466 million) to Evergrande.

        The bank tried to calm depositors with a statement saying its loans to Evergrande totaled only 346 million yuan as of Oct. 6. The rumors circulating on social media were inaccurate, according to the bank, and the loans have caused no material impact on business.

        Investors had more banks to worry about. Private-sector China Minsheng Bank had loaned Evergrande 29.3 billion yuan, the social media post claimed, while the Agricultural Bank of China, one of the country’s four big state-owned lenders, is said to have loaned 24.2 billion yuan.

        Listed Chinese banks reported over 2 trillion yuan in combined net profit for 2022, but investors remain skeptical. Bank stocks were trading at an average of 4.72 times earnings as of Nov. 10, close to an all-time low of 4.13 logged in October last year, when international investors sold off shares following the Communist Party congress.

        The real estate sector accounts for 23% of bank lending, People’s Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng said Wednesday. Personal home loans account for about 80% of this amount, Pan said.

        The impact of real estate market adjustments on the financial system is “manageable,” he said.

        Chinese commercial banks hold 3.2 trillion yuan worth of nonperforming loans, the National Administration of Financial Regulation reports, just 1.62% of all bank loans. But few investors take this information at face value.

        Financial regulators, banks and auditing firms have wide discretion on assessing bank loans. To gauge whether loans are being graded appropriately, investors use real estate sales volumes as an indicator.

        Property sales have declined since peaking in 2021 at roughly 1.79 billion square meters. Goldman Sachs estimates Chinese banks will incur about 1.2 trillion yuan in real estate-related losses due to the property slump.

        S&P Global notes that Shengjing Bank, which once counted Evergrande as a major shareholder, has sued the property group over 32.6 billion yuan in debt. Yet public disclosures show that Shengjing held only 1.5 billion yuan in nonperforming real estate loans.

        Hong Kong-listed Shengjing’s share price has tumbled since mid-October. The stock hit 1.67 Hong Kong dollars (21 cents) on Friday, down nearly 70% from the end of June.

        Amid defaults by Chinese property developers, S&P warned that credit extended to the real estate industry could erode banks’ capital.

        But China’s government shows little sign of drastic action on nonperforming debt. New bank capital regulations taking effect in January will loosen some conditions on loans for real estate development.

        Since China took steps to liberalize interest rates in 2015, net interest margins have shrunk to all-time lows. This, together with falling long-term interest rates and the property market peaking, have damaged the banks’ earning structures. The situation resembles Japan after its asset-price bubble burst in the early 1990s.

        Recognizing nonperforming loans and bolstering capital will be key to restoring investor confidence in Chinese bank stocks, Kinger Lau at Goldman Sachs said.
        …
        https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/China-bank-stocks-face-crisis-of-confidence-over-bad-debt-risk

        2. “Amid defaults by Chinese property developers, S&P warned that credit extended to the real estate industry could erode banks’ capital.”

          Long article, but didn’t the title suggest this has already happened?

    1. Financial Times
      FT Series Higher for longer
      Equity valuation
      Stock investors face up to tough reality of higher rates
      Fund managers turn to new data sources to woo clients as flows into equity funds dry up
      The Fed’s historic series of interest rate rises in the last year has transformed the outlook for equities
      Nicholas Megaw in New York yesterday

      Equity specialists at some of the world’s largest asset managers are brushing up on their history and digging into new data sources to convince clients to keep investing in stocks in a world of higher interest rates.

      After a decade of gains, the Federal Reserve’s historic series of interest rate rises in the last year has transformed the outlook for equities.

      Pension funds and wealth managers are already investing less of their funds in stocks, attracted instead by the high interest on offer from money market funds and bond holdings. Net flows into equity funds have been practically flat so far this year, according to data from EPFR.

      But specialist portfolio managers are keen to stress that there are still opportunities in the stock market — even if the years of broad gains driven by loose monetary policy are over.

      “If you look back at history, it’s the post-[2008 financial crisis] period that is the anomaly,” said Tony Despirito, chief investment officer for fundamental equities at BlackRock.

      “The equity risk premium — the relative reward of stocks versus bonds — was incredibly favourable. Now it’s back to long-term averages, but that is still quite good. That’s the perspective investors need.”
      …

      1. The only bubble in the stock market is the ‘bear bubble’ of overly negative sentiment, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says
        Matthew Fox
        Nov 13, 2023, 7:36 AM PST
        Trader NYSE
        Lucas Jackson/Reuters

        – There’s a bubble in bearish investor sentiment, according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.

        – “I am struck how investors ‘default’ stance on equities is bearish for stock ideas and for the market overall,” Lee said.

        – Lee sees a bullish year-end rally and recommends investors continue to buy any declines.
        …
        https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bear-bubble-investors-bearish-sentiment-sp500-stocks-2023-11

        1. Financial Times
          Bank bonuses
          Wall Street workers told to expect another year of smaller bonuses
          Payouts for some roles set to fall by 25% as higher interest rates dampen dealmaking and IPOs
          People walk past the New York Stock Exchange
          Some Wall Street companies have told shareholders they are cutting expenses quickly to meet a more uncertain investment landscape
          By Joshua Franklin, Stephen Gandel and Antoine Gara in New York 43 minutes ago

          Wall Street bonuses are set to fall this year by as much as 25 per cent, as investment bankers and money managers feel the pinch from rising interest rates that have damped dealmaking activity and curtailed new stock market listings.

          An analysis by New York-based pay consultancy Johnson Associates showed that 2023 bonuses across most of Wall Street — from investment banking advisory work to sales and trading and private equity — will on average be either down or flat compared to a year earlier.

          “Most Wall Street professionals will have to wait another year for a rebound in year-end bonuses,” Alan Johnson, who runs the consultancy, said in a statement on Tuesday.
          …

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