thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

We Don’t Really Have A Housing Supply Problem, We Have A Money Problem

A weekend topic starting with Fox 13. “In his State of the State address, Governor Spencer Cox reiterated something he said last month to some of Utah’s most powerful business and community leaders. ‘I believe the single largest threat to our future prosperity is the price of housing. Period,’ said Cox. ‘Housing attainability is a crisis in Utah and every state in this country.’ ‘For more than a century,’ he continued, ‘home ownership has been the cornerstone of the American dream. It is the key to financial independence, and the ability to break away from government support. Homeownership is also the key to family and community.’ The Governor said recent polling indicates the two biggest issues for Utahns right now are inflation and the high cost of housing.”

“Dejan Eskic at the Kem C. Gardner Institute at the University of Utah said, ‘If you pay more than 30%, you’re considered cost burdened. And so in Utah, if we look at renters, about half of them are cost burdened, meaning they pay more than 30% of their income on housing. Eskic said 15 percent of Utah renters are now paying 50% of their income to housing. ‘So the more burdened your population becomes the less they have an opportunity to spend money elsewhere. So this is why this is a big challenge for us,’ said Eskic.”

From Newsweek. “More than 90 percent of Americans say they are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ concerned about the price of food and consumer goods while 89 percent say the same about the cost of housing, according to Pew. These worries partly explain why more than 30 percent say the economy is poor. The consumer price index came in at 3.4 percent last month, a slight uptick from November’s read. A significant chunk of the increase came from housing costs, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said. ‘The index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items increase,’ they pointed out.”

Business Insider. “Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies estimated 12.1 million American households spend more than half their income on rent and utilities. That number grows to 22.4 million households for those spending more than 30% of their income on rent and utilities. Even after adjusting for inflation, the number of rentals for less than $1,000 plummeted from 2012 to 2022, according to Harvard’s research. Meanwhile, rentals priced over $2,000 have more than doubled during the same timeframe.”

KDKA in Pennsylvania. “After the death of big steel, Mon Valley towns like Homestead and Munhall are finally making a comeback, attracting young families to restore houses and call the area home. But they’ve also attracted a number of big corporate buyers. In recent years, limited liability corporations, hedge funds and private equity firms have bought up hundreds of thousands of houses across the country and turned them into rental units. In Allegheny County, out-of-state buyers have snatched up more than a thousand houses primarily in the eastern suburbs — not dilapidated but not high-end — prime candidates for first-time buyers. Generally, the companies make some minor repairs and put them on the rental market. ‘That’s part of their business model,’ said Sabina Deitrick, associate professor at the University of Pittsburgh. ‘Cut out the labor. There’s no superintendent, there’s no maintenance person, there’s no one that they know is going to be around.'”

The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. “Is affordable housing actually affordable if taxpayers contribute $500,000 to build each home? St. Petersburg City Council members contemplated a similar question earlier this month. The majority of them answered yes. They greenlit a project that will require more than $12 million in subsidies to build 24 townhomes. Draw a circle with a 1-mile radius around the 22nd Street South property. Inside that circle on Wednesday were 27 homes selling for $500,000 or less, according to Zillow and Realtor.com. A few were brand new. Others were 100-year-old bungalows. Most were smaller. But they were all livable and ready for new owners, the listings said. The total asking price: $9.38 million. The city could have bought all of them and given them to 27 families entirely for free, and had millions of dollars left over to ‘activate’ the 22nd Street South property.”

The Florida Alligator. “The average cost of living in Gainesville is 2% higher than the national average, while the housing cost is 12% higher than the national average. Gainesville residents aren’t alone as living in Florida can be expensive, with Florida’s more heavily populated cities like Miami sitting 21% above the national average cost of living, or Orlando, which sits at 5% above the national average. Jill Dumas was born and raised in Gainesville The 46-year-old Gainesville realtor and homeowner believes the housing crisis is due to high prices and the emergence of Airbnbs, she said. ‘I had friends renting on the edge of the Duck Pond, not what I would call a high price neighborhood, for $725, and then starting to come out of COVID-19 it went up to $925, and next thing you know, it’s $1,200.’ Dumas said. ‘Nobody’s income went up $500 in that time.'”

“Short-term rental units through companies like Airbnb have increased after COVID-19. Alachua County currently averages 2,500 active short-term rental units, which increased by 36.4% from 2022. ‘One of the things I’ve seen too is with Airbnb, investors take these spaces like a little apartment, a carriage house, a studio — what was affordable housing for people,’ Dumas said. ‘What I see happen a lot is that some landlords or investors raise rent so high that people can’t afford it. Those people move out and they put in an Airbnb.'”

Honolulu Civil Beat. “A package of bills expected to be introduced before a Hawaii County Council committee on Tuesday aims to crack down on the number of short-term vacation rentals on the island. Joshua Montgomery, a spokesman for Ohana Aina Association, which represents operators of homestays, farmstays and vacation rentals on the Big Island. doesn’t believe the legislation would lead to more long-term rentals. ‘We don’t really have a housing supply problem. We have a money problem. You can go to Zillow right now and see dozens or hundreds of homes that are available for sale. The issue is local families don’t have enough money to buy them,’ he said. ‘Taking away their economic opportunity like this is not going to help their situation.'”

From News.com.au. “As Australia’s housing crisis continues to worsen, attention is again turning to the country’s one in ten ’empty’ homes — and whether more needs to be done to fill them up. There were more than one million “empty” homes in Australia on Census night in 2021, a headline-grabbing figure in the midst of the country’s worsening housing crisis. ANU demographer Dr Liz Allen told ABC Radio Melbourne in 2022 that the number ‘punched me in the face.’ ‘There are a number of reasons for that vacancy rate, but a lot of that is because people have multiple homes.'”

From Global News. “The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at 5.0 per cent for the fourth consecutive time on Wednesday, with governor Tiff Macklem saying that conversations at the central bank have shifted from whether rates need to rise higher to how long they need to stay at current levels. ‘We believe this will provide Canadians with more comfort that home prices in their city have stabilized and the next step will be a return to home price appreciation,’ saysPhil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage. ‘The decision that consumers need to make is, do I wait for cheaper money or do I get in ahead of rising home prices?'”

From Reuters. “U.S. Federal Reserve officials suspected the fight to lower inflation would be difficult and have been reluctant to declare success even as price increases have slowed. The data from December showed why. Overall consumer price inflation jumped, while a measure of underlying inflation fell. But shelter costs keep rising, as do prices charged for an array of services like auto insurance. For the Fed it is a welcome return to a familiar world. Falling goods prices were a byproduct of trade liberalization in the 2000s and helped anchor low inflation through 2019, until the COVID-19 pandemic threw global supply chains into disarray, consumer goods demand jumped because of the health crisis, and prices soared. At their peak in February 2022, goods prices excluding food and energy products were rising 12.3% annually.”

“The pandemic led to soaring home prices in parts of the U.S. and falling rents in others, but overall shelter costs rose only a tepid 1.4% over the 12 months ending February 2021, less than half the typical rate preceding the COVID-19 outbreak. But shelter inflation then accelerated, hitting 8.2% by March of 2023. That reading has been slowing, and Fed officials remain confident shelter cost ‘disinflation’ will continue. ‘I think in the categories of where are the dangers, this issue of housing inflation is the critical piece in the near term,’ Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview.”

The Daily Mail. “A CBS anchor admitted that he failed to find a single person outside a New Hampshire grocery store who ‘feels good about the economy’ after inflation rose to 3.4 percent. While previewing an upcoming segment, ‘CBS Mornings’ co-host Tony Dokoupil said he and his team couldn’t find anybody that was ‘feeling good about the economy.’ ‘People are really bummed out about the economy here in New Hampshire,’ he said. ‘Even if the overall big picture numbers are going in the right direction, and even if people’s own personal experiences in general are going okay, there’s a lot of gloom.'”

“Noting the emotional impact of shopping, Dokoupil said, ‘Psychologically, you go into a store, if you’re paying more for items that you get every week, that really sticks with you, it really annoys you, it gets you down. People were upset about it.’ In one interview, Dokoupil attempted to reassure a woman about the government’s efforts to curb inflation. However, her response reflected skepticism, with her stating, ‘I don’t know what pocketbook they’re looking at, but it ain’t mine,’ and revealing that she had taken on a second job.’ Another family shared their experience with Dokoupil, detailing the challenges they face as each member works tirelessly to make ends meet in the face of economic pressures.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 105 Comments

  1. ‘After the death of big steel, Mon Valley towns like Homestead and Munhall are finally making a comeback’

    ‘For the Fed it is a welcome return to a familiar world. Falling goods prices were a byproduct of trade liberalization in the 2000s and helped anchor low inflation through 2019’

    They had lower inflation for decades because the globalist scum sent most of the good jobs to China. They used that as cover while they created many trillions of pesos that further undermined our standard of living.

    Reuters is globalist scum media.

      1. The Monongahela River (/məˌnɒŋɡəˈhiːlə/ mə-NONG-gə-HEE-lə, /-ˈheɪ-/ -⁠HAY-),[10] sometimes referred to locally as the Mon (/mɒn/), is a 130-mile-long (210 km)[6] river on the Allegheny Plateau in north-central West Virginia and Southwestern Pennsylvania. The river flows from the confluence of its west and east forks in north-central West Virginia northeasterly into southwestern Pennsylvania, then northerly to Pittsburgh and its confluence with the Allegheny River to form the Ohio River. The river includes a series of locks and dams that makes it navigable.
        Etymology

        The Unami word Monongahela means “falling banks”, in reference to the geological instability of the river’s banks. Moravian missionary David Zeisberger (1721–1808) gave this account of the naming: “In the Indian tongue the name of this river was Mechmenawungihilla (alternatively spelled Menawngihella), which signifies a high bank, which is ever washed out and therefore collapses.”[11]

        The Lenape Language Project renders the word as Mënaonkihëla (pronounced [mənaoŋɡihəla]), translated “where banks cave in or erode”,[12] from the verbs mënaonkihële “the dirt caves off” (such as the bank of a river or creek, or in a landslide)[13] and mënaonke (pronounced [mənaoŋɡe]), “it has a loose bank” (where one might fall in).[14]

        Monongalia County and the town of Monongah, both in West Virginia, are named for the river, as is the city of Monongahela in Pennsylvania. (The name “Monongalia” is either a Latinized adaptation of “Monongahela” or simply a variant spelling.)

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monongahela_River

    2. “They had lower inflation for decades because the globalist scum sent most of the good jobs to China. They used that as cover while they created many trillions of pesos that further undermined our standard of living.”

      +1

      – A nation needs manufacturing and production for a healthy middle class, society, and culture. What we got was – as you pointed out – financialization of assets to fill the gap in the economy and placate the masses.

      – This is the sham wealth effect from Federal Government, which includes the Fed as their Central Bank lapdog. The fake wealth evaporates during financial crises, which are the inevitable outcome of asset bubbles.

      “The most perfect political community is one in which the middle class is in control, and outnumbers both of the other classes.” – Aristotle

      – Many are finding out that real estate isn’t the path to riches that they’ve been brainwashed into believing. Reference: The GFC, Lehman Brothers, and Housiing Bubble 1.0. The real wealth has been hoovered up by the elites.

      – A healthy economy is driven by savings, not debt. Savings funds productive investment. Right now debt is funding unproductive investment as consumption. No income generation to pay the interest on the debt. The only path forward under this system is more debt, which is where we are now. Next step is economic collapse, using history as a guide.

      – Deficit spending (fiscal) must now be funded through the Fed via debt monetization (money printing). Money printing is the root cause of inflation. These policies are destroying the nation. Inflation is not an accident, it’s policy. It’s not rocket science. Reference: Argentina.

      “The only thing worse than inflation is nuclear war” – Charlie Munger

      “The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.” – Ludwig von Mises

      “We have, in this country, one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board. This evil institution has impoverished the people of the United States and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it.” – Louis T. McFadden

      “Interventionism inevitably leads to socialism, central banking inevitably leads to hyperinflation, total cashlessness inevitably leads to total surveillance, and “guaranteed income” inevitably leads to guaranteed enslavement. A deadly poison remains a deadly poison even when ingested in a gradual manner.” – Jakub Bożydar Wiśniewski

      “The Central Bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the principles and form of our Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson

      If progressives take over the central bank, they will have power beyond their wildest dreams to advance their destructive ideological agenda through economic policy that bypasses Congress. – Miranda Devine

      “Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. It is made by or stopped by the central bank.” – Milton Friedman

      – Progressivism = Socialism = Communism
      – What happened in 1913?
      1) The formation of the Federal Reserve System
      2) The Federal Income Tax was instituted

      The Ten Planks of the  Communist Manifesto
      1848 by Karl Heinrich Marx

      2. A heavy progressive or graduated income tax.
       5. Centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly.

      “The surest way to destroy a nation is to debauch its currency.” – Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

      “The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation.” – Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
      “The establishment of a central bank is 90% of communizing a nation.” – Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov Lenin

      – I’m sure glad that they’re teaching all of this in our wonderful schools indoctrination centers today. See plank no. 10.

        1. “Your social credit score is on par with mine.”

          – Yeah, abysmal! 😀
          – I don’t either, Comrade.

      2. “A nation needs manufacturing and production for a healthy middle class, society, and culture. What we got was – as you pointed out – financialization of assets to fill the gap in the economy and placate the masses.”

        When you shut down economic production and print money like in Germany during the Weimar Republic, the result is too much money chasing too few goods. The result is inflation, or a reduction in the real value of the money in your pocket and your bank account, with a comensurate increase in the prices of the goods and services you rely on for survival, including housing.

        This is all easy enough to explain to a bright grade school student. No advanced training in economcs or fancy theories are necessary to grasp it.

        1. “No advanced training in economics or fancy theories are necessary to grasp it.”

          – And yet, few do.

          “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” – Henry Ford

        2. The result is inflation, or a reduction in the real value of the money in your pocket and your bank account, with a comensurate increase in the prices of the goods and services you rely on for survival, including housing.

          Like a $2M fixer-upper: 15918 Lime Grove Rd, Poway, CA 92064.

        3. There’s been 10,000,000 illegal immigrants who’ve entered the country looking for food and shelter. The affordable housing is all gone.

  2. ‘said 15 percent of Utah renters are now paying 50% of their income to housing. ‘So the more burdened your population becomes the less they have an opportunity to spend money elsewhere’

    This is why bubbles make you poor and then they pop Dejan. The shack money has to come from some poor bashtard who’s loading up on debt.

  3. ‘For more than a century,’ he continued, ‘home ownership has been the cornerstone of the American dream. It is the key to financial independence, and the ability to break away from government support. Homeownership is also the key to family and community’

    Don’t stop there Spencer. Loanowners also have brighter teeth and whiter shirt collars.

    1. It would be interesting to document how many generations of US presidents said similar things about the virtues of loanownership. I am thinking the belief system started a century ago, but haven’t reviewed the record recently.

      1. User
        Who is the first US president who spoke to the virtues of home ownership?

        ChatGPT
        The first US president who spoke to the virtues of home ownership was Thomas Jefferson. Jefferson believed that widespread land ownership and agrarianism were essential for a healthy republic, and he encouraged policies that promoted individual land ownership, including the expansion of territories for settlement and the sale of public lands to private citizens.

        1. land ownership and agrarianism

          Farming is productive. Not the same thing as a mortgaged tract house.

          1. When Jefferson said that, home ownership and farming were one and the same, in the form of plantations staffed by slaves that he and some of his fellow founding fathers owned to run family farming operations in the days before modern fossil-fuel based mechanized farming.

            His vision of homeownership has little to do with today’s government-subsidized tract home ownership comcept, except that antebellum slavery has been replaced by mortgage loan indentured servitude.

        2. “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

          – Thomas Jefferson in the debate over the Re-charter of the Bank Bill (1809)

          http://www.themoneymasters.com/the-money-masters/famous-quotations-on-banking/

          1. User
            “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

            ChatGPT
            This quote is often attributed to Thomas Jefferson, although there is some debate about its origins and authenticity. Nonetheless, it reflects sentiments that resonate with concerns about the control of currency issuance and its potential impact on the general population.

    2. “It is the key to financial independence, and the ability to break away from government support.”

      What kind of government support is he talking about that homeowners break from? Like from the Fed, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, IRS, HUD, FHA, USDA Rural Debrlopment, VA, and FEMA?

      1. User
        When did US federal government support for honeowners begin?

        ChatGPT
        The US federal government’s support for homeowners began to take shape in the early 20th century with the establishment of various policies and programs aimed at promoting home ownership. One significant milestone was the creation of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) in 1934 as part of the New Deal under President Franklin D. Roosevelt. The FHA provided mortgage insurance to lenders, making home loans more accessible and affordable for millions of Americans. This marked the beginning of a more structured and direct federal involvement in supporting homeownership in the United States.

        1. I doubt the founding fathers envisioned homeownership becoming a key target of the welfare state.

      2. I hear China also gives a lot of government support for homeownership. How is that working out?

          1. Bloomberg
            Markets
            China Mulls $137 Billion of New Funds to Aid Housing Market
            – PBOC to inject cheap funds in phases through banks: people
            – Plan would mark a step-up in Beijing’s effort to boost economy
            WATCH: Bloomberg has learned that China plans to provide at least $137 billion of low-cost financing to the housing program. Stephen Engle reports.
            Source: Bloomberg
            By Bloomberg News
            November 14, 2023 at 3:38 AM CST
            Updated on November 14, 2023 at 4:20 AM CST

            China plans to provide at least 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) of low-cost financing to the nation’s urban village renovation and affordable housing programs in its latest effort to shore up the struggling property market, according to people familiar with the matter.

            The People’s Bank of China would inject funds in phases through policy banks with the money ultimately trickling down to households for home purchases, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. Officials are considering options including the so-called Pledged Supplemental Lending and special loans, the people said, adding that the government may take the first step as soon as this month.
            …
            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/china-mulls-137-billion-of-new-funding-to-boost-housing-market

    3. Homeownership is also the key to family and community’

      Translation: giving vibrants taxpayer-funded shacks suddenly turns them into model citizens who embrace the responsibilities of parenting and civic duties. As if.

      1. Housing is cheap in those neighborhoods, often the cheapest in town, and it still looks like trash.

  4. “‘I believe the single largest threat to our future prosperity is the price of housing. Period,’ said Cox. ‘Housing attainability is a crisis in Utah and every state in this country.’ ‘For more than a century,’ he continued, ‘home ownership has been the cornerstone of the American dream. It is the key to financial independence, and the ability to break away from government support. Homeownership is also the key to family and community.’ The Governor said recent polling indicates the two biggest issues for Utahns right now are inflation and the high cost of housing.”

    Is he future president material?

    1. If he is addressing current homeowners his oval office ambitions are already dead as shacks must lose value to align with reality.

  5. ‘We believe this will provide Canadians with more comfort that home prices in their city have stabilized and the next step will be a return to home price appreciation…The decision that consumers need to make is, do I wait for cheaper money or do I get in ahead of rising home prices?’

    Just another reason people don’t like UHS Phil.

    1. This can all be modelled, however, the MSM wont do it for various reasons. It is likely that Canada’s ‘slump’ will be shallow and short lived due to the massive invasion. Soon the government will find a way to funnel money to the new arrivals so they can bid on houses. It is important to keep in mind that the number of arrivals is very dynamic because the higher the number of arrivals, the more chain migrants are to follow so it always increases until a hard limit is set. Population growth or decline plays a major role in regional prices. Adding to the pressure is the fact that the new arrivals don’t have the same perspective on dollar value that the natives do because they grew up on other currencies, to them it is monopoly money. Similar to how we say ‘english as a second language’, it is dollar as a second currency and they aren’t fluent. Canada is setting up for a very ugly stretch, the younger generation has a hard road ahead.

  6. “More than 90 percent of Americans say they are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ concerned about the price of food”

    Are you better off than you were three years ago?

    1. Americans Can’t Even Afford Rent
      Jan 25, 2024 at 11:39 AM EST
      Current Time 0:07
      By Suzanne Blake
      Reporter, Consumer & Social Trends

      Americans are struggling to pay their rent this month, according to a new report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

      In the report, half of all tenants spent more than 30 percent of their income on rent and utilities; and even among middle-income renters, the percentage had risen 5.4 points from 2019 through 2022.

      “Over the last two decades, housing unaffordability has been climbing the income ladder and is increasingly affecting middle-income households,” Sophia Wedeen, a research analyst at the center, told Realtor.com. “For people with lower incomes, housing unaffordability is a fact of life.”

      Altogether, 22.4 million households were paying more than the 30 percent recommended amount towards housing, and 12.1 million households were defined as “severely cost-burdened.” This meant more than half of their income went toward housing.

      Across two decades, from 2001 and 2022, rent climbed 21 percent when adjusted for inflation. This is in stark contrast to renters’ incomes, which only grew by 2 percent.
      …
      https://www.newsweek.com/americans-struggling-afford-rent-high-prices-1863988

      1. rent climbed 21 percent when adjusted for inflation

        Circular logic? What is the price of things adjusted by the price of things?

        1. “Adjusted for inflation…”

          That means relative to some index measure of general prices, like the Consumer Price Index.

          Regardless of what price index was used to adjust from nominal dollars to real dollars, the point stands that housing costs rose much faster than incomes over the past two decades.

  7. Covid vaccines are poison.

    New York Times (via Archive) — My Patients Used to Be Gung-Ho About the Covid Vaccine. What Changed? (1/27/2024):

    “When I ask my patients if they have any concerns or questions about the Covid vaccine, hardly any do. Practically no one asks me about safety data or how effective it is at preventing viral transmission, hospitalization and death. Almost no one asks me about current case counts or masking or Paxlovid. There’s just a vague hedge, or an abashed, “I don’t know, I just don’t.” As I try to suss out what’s on my patients’ minds, I can feel their own slight sense of surprise that there is no specific issue causing their discomfort about getting the updated Covid vaccine. It’s as though they have a communal case of the heebie-jeebies.

    When my patients express their hesitance to get the updated vaccine, I’ll explain how the Covid virus has mutated, so that’s why we’ve altered the vaccine, just as we do for the flu shot every year. I’ll point out that in the first two years of Covid vaccination, an estimated three million lives in the United States have been saved, and an estimated 18 million hospitalizations prevented.”

    ^ This is a lie.

    “Each time I’m faced with a patient hedging on the Covid shot, I have to decide whether to put aside the many other pressing medical issues competing for our limited time to go down the vaccine-hesitancy road. These discussions are notoriously messy and lengthy, and rarely change minds.

    A review of the facts is less about starting a lecture, and more about examining emotional responses. We talk openly about what they are hearing in their communities — that the pandemic is over, that the new boosters are more “experimental” than the old ones, that some number of vaccinations is “too much.”

    It can be a revelation to some patients when they realize that they may be reacting to a sense of the waters being muddied rather than specific information or misinformation.

    As time-consuming and exhausting as these conversations can be, we have a communal duty to try to unmuddy the waters — all of us. If you’ve been hesitating on getting your updated Covid vaccination, you might want to put your heebie-jeebies front and center on the exam table at your next medical visit. It’s due for a checkup.”

    https://archive.ph/gn7v0

    2. These discussions are notoriously messy and lengthy, and rarely change minds.

      Any attempt by Big Pharma poison peddlers to push The Jab should be terminated immediately with a curt: “F*ck you, I’m finding another GP.” I can tell you from personal experience the look on their face is priceless.

  8. The Washington Post is globalist scum media.

    Washington Post (via Archive) — Texas border dispute breeds loose talk of civil war, resistance on right (1/26/2024):

    “Repeatedly in recent days, Republicans and conservative media have alluded to the prospect of the situation forcing soldiers to choose between loyalty to their state and loyalty to their country — even proposing that matters could turn confrontational and violent. Some have invoked another civil war.

    The comments have increasingly referenced a situation in which President Biden would try to federalize the National Guard.

    A Newsmax host on Thursday mentioned Guard members potentially refusing to be federalized — essentially disobeying their commander in chief — and asked, “Does that put us on course for a force-on-force conflict?”

    Earlier this week, after the Supreme Court ruled against Texas, Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) tweeted that “the feds are staging a civil war, and Texas should stand their ground.”

    Martha MacCallum cited “a confrontation, potentially, between federal agents and the Texas National Guard.” Stuart Varney on Friday said the dispute “could mean a direct clash at the border between federalized troops and the state authorities.” Greg Gutfeld on Thursday cited a possible civil war multiple times, apparently jokingly. “Hypothetically, civil war is coming. It’s coming,” he said. “We have 24 states on Texas’s side, that leaves 26 [on the other]?”

    https://archive.is/nVMh5

    Open borders is TREASON.

    2. a confrontation, potentially, between federal agents and the Texas National Guard

      Wouldn’t that be a revolution rather than a civil war?

    3. None of this will matter in two decades when the last of the purle states turn blue. Democrats will control the federal government for seven generations after that. AOC and the Squad believe they’ll be 87 years old by then and the girlbosses in charge of the Democrat party running the country, and the world.

  9. When wokeness, the making sacred of historically-disadvantaged minorities, takes control of a society like Canada, the effects go far beyond plans to stock tampons in men’s bathrooms. There, taboo-driven mass immigration is not only resulting in cultural tensions but in economic paralysis and soaring housing costs.

    You know things have gone crazy when even economists at the National Bank of Canada are sounding the alarm. They say the country has entered a “population trap” in which savings are sucked into providing infrastructure and capital for new arrivals, impairing economic growth. More than that, the immense pressure of the 1.2 million new residents the country added in 2023 is driving the cost of housing through the roof. To put this number into scale, it’s larger than the population of most Canadian cities and 8 of the country’s 13 provinces and territories.

    Yet these policies are endorsed not only by the Left-wing coalition government of Justin Trudeau but by the so-called “populist” conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who only speaks about building homes, not reducing immigration. This is partly because he is a neoliberal who cares about little beyond economics. But he is also alive to the sword of “racism” that the progressive media holds over the neck of any Canadian politician who dares to question mass migration.

    He should worry less. After Trudeau announced record-breaking immigration targets, surveys showed 67 percent of Canadians opposed. With just one housing start for every four people entering the workforce and rents and house prices soaring, especially in metropolitan areas, even liberal Canadians have had enough.

    Canada’s elite suffers from a syndrome known as “Canada’s pro-immigration consensus”. This has its origins in Canada losing its identity with the death of the British Empire in the 1950s and 60s. British loyalism had been the country’s dominant ideology and raison d’etre since the American Revolution, but lay in ruins. The vacuum was filled with 1960s vintage left-liberalism, with Canada reinvented as a kinder, gentler United States.

    Canada is a sterling example of how cultural leftism meshes with the expansionist ethos of global capitalism. Nothing symbolizes this progressive neoliberal synthesis better than Toronto’s 18-lane, perpetually snarled, Highway 401, accompanying the unchecked urban sprawl that is a feature of the country’s major metropolitan areas. In Vancouver, when locals resist expansion, developers cry “racist” and “xenophobe” to relax zoning and planning restrictions. EThere is constant pressure on established neighbourhoods, lowering the quality of life for existing residents.

    The lie that immigration is a solution to the ageing problem (apparently immigrants don’t age) is routinely trotted out, with no opposition, to justify higher numbers. The apotheosis of this thinking is the Century Initiative, an elite lobby group straddling the corporate world, academia and non-profit sector which is pushing for a supersize Canada of 100 million people, up from 40 million today. This will produce a nation of sprawling mega-Dubais bloated out of all proportion to the traditional landscape of small cities and towns.

    Quality of life, per capita income and social cohesion must be sacrified to reach this maximum migration utopia. It may be too late for Canada to step back from the brink. Britain still has a choice. Let’s hope it makes the right one.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trudeau-s-mass-migration-cult-is-destroying-canada/ar-BB1hfBDm

    1. ‘Yet these policies are endorsed not only by the Left-wing coalition government of Justin Trudeau but by the so-called “populist” conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who only speaks about building homes, not reducing immigration. This is partly because he is a neoliberal who cares about little beyond economics’

      I was disappointed to read this.

      1. Top politicians in the western world agree that home ownership is the sure path to riches for everyone.

      2. Canada, the US, the UK, Australia, NZ, and all of Western Europe, your white populations are being replaced.

        Replacement theory is not a theory. You are being replaced.

        And the Language Police believe you should be forbidden from even discussing it.

        1. Replacement theory is not a theory. You are being replaced.

          Ask the Hawaiians, who are now only 10% of the population of the Aloha state.

      3. I was disappointed to read this.

        I don’t agree with it at all. He says immigration has to be matched with the needs of business and the availability of housing, He is against the Century Project and indiscriminate immigration.

        Shame on The Telegraph.

  10. The New Mexico State Constitution banned “idiots” from participating in any and all public votes in 1911, and the law has never been absolved. On qualifications for voting, the law states that any one over the age of 21 who has lived in the state for a year or more are eligible for voting, except for felons, and those who are insane or idiots.

    Imagine if we barred idiots from voting in all 50 states, and enforced it.

    1. I forget, what is the cutoff IQ for an idiot? IIRC, there is a number, and if you are below it, you are an idiot. Of course “idiot” colloquially means anyone who has beliefs we don’t agree with.

      1. All dead tree news outlets are propaganda arms, and the state only needs 2 or 3 of those. At first the globalists needed many to saturate the market with propaganda, but now that has been achieved they can roll back.

        Also, funny how there venerable newspapers all seem to be owned by billionaires, many of them foreigners.

        1. Real Journalists & globalist oligarchs share an antipathy for everything that made America great, once upon a time.

  12. ‘I believe the single largest threat to our future prosperity is the price of housing. Period,’ said Cox.

    Cox is willfully confusing cause & effect. The single greatest threat to our future prosperity is the criminal private banking cartel known as the Federal Reserve. Since its clandestine 1913 establishment by the robber barons of the era, the Fed has served as the oligarchy’s chief instrument of plunder against the middle & working classes, and has destroyed 98% of the dollar’s purchasing power.

  13. So, the city is giving out free houses ? A program here in the rural east ,is called “Habitit for Humanity”, it’s a good hearted program,to give entire houses at cost of materials only,with no interest at all, to so called needy folks ,but the last number of years ,I’ve noticed they’re not good at choosing who to help out with the materials cost only, basic houses …most are trashed and or abandoned within the first few years ,by the druggies ,and rabbit-breeding like moms they tend to award them to, That’s why I no longer support them, a good Idea , but they give them to trash people……

    1. Economy
      3 reasons the US economy’s strength right now is a head-fake, according to Mohamed El-Erian
      Filip De Mott
      Jan 26, 2024, 11:47 AM ET
      Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser of Allianz appears on a segment of “Mornings With Maria” with Maria Bartiromo on the FOX Business Network at FOX Studios on April 29, 2016 in New York City.
      Rob Kim/Getty Images

      – The narrative that the US economy could achieve a soft landing still faces challenges, Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg TV.

      – Rising inflation and geopolitical turmoil could dampen US growth and pressure a recession.

      – Last year’s rapid growth is unlikely as consumer savings are depleted, he said.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-recession-outlook-consumer-spending-inflation-growth-el-erian-2024-1

    2. Markets
      These 7 recession indicators are still glaring bright red, signaling a sharp downturn could be imminent despite surging GDP and low unemployment
      William Edwards
      Jan 26, 2024, 5:20 AM CST
      Read in app
      store closing
      Reuters/Suzanne Plunkett

      – The economic outlook may be brightening a bit, but a recession is still likely, says Jeff Schulze.

      – Schulze, the head of strategy at ClearBridge Investments, has a list of recession indicators he watches.

      – Seven of the 12 indicators are pointing to a downturn, he wrote in a recent note.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicators-economy-outlook-inflation-interest-rates-fed-gdp-clearbridge-2024-1

    3. ECONOMY
      The inventor of Wall Street’s favorite recession indicator predicts a slowdown this year – and slams the Fed for making things worse
      Theron Mohamed Jan 26, 2024, 7:03 AM ET
      Traders signal offers in the Five-Year Treasury Note Options pit at the Chicago Board of Trade
      Scott Olson/Getty Images)

      The man behind Wall Street’s favorite recession indicator expects the US economy to slow this year.

      Consumers are almost out of savings, and the Fed needs to cut rates to limit the fallout, he says.

      Duke professor Campbell Harvey discovered an inverted yield curve accurately predicts recessions.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-inverted-yield-curve-recession-indicator-harvey-fed-consumers-2024-1

    4. top story
      Report: Typical California home requires triple the median household income to afford
      TCS California House Public Domain
      The Painted Ladies row houses in San Francisco, California. Creative Commons Public Domain▲
      By Kenneth Schrupp | The Center Square
      Jan 26, 2024

      (The Center Square) – The typical home in California requires nearly triple the median household income to afford, according to a new housing affordability analysis from the state-run, nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office.

      Low pandemic-era interest rates facilitated larger home loans, driving up home prices, while rising interest rates to combat inflation have increased mortgage payments on each dollar owed, creating a double-whammy for would-be homebuyers in the state.

      Prices for mid-tier homes (in the 35th to 65th percentile range) and bottom-tier homes (in the 5th to 35th percentile range) in California cost vastly more than their national counterparts, coming in at twice as expensive and 33% more expensive than national analogues, respectively.

      Mid-tier home payments rose to $5,500 per month in December, an increase of 80% since January 2020, while those for a bottom-tier home increased to $3,400, or an 85% increase since January 2020, suggesting demand is higher at the bottom-end of the market where residents are competing for a smaller quantity of housing that is affordable to them.

      However, rents have not grown as quickly as home purchase payments, meaning that a two-bedroom home is now almost $2,000 per month cheaper to rent than to buy.
      …
      https://www.thecentersquare.com/california/article_fc2f84ce-bc9c-11ee-b158-6365914c14c5.amp.html

    5. Yahoo
      CNN Business
      Why the US economy is doing so much better than the rest of the world
      Analysis by Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN
      Fri, January 26, 2024 at 5:00 AM CST·4 min read

      It happened again — the US economy defied yet another forecast in a big way.

      Economists were convinced the last quarter of 2023 had to be the one where economic growth slowed significantly after the prior quarter’s gangbuster 4.9% annualized growth rate.

      Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, did slow last quarter to a 3.3% annualized rate. But make no mistake, as Larry David would say, that’s prettaaay, prettaaay good.

      It’s remarkable given economists were expecting 1.5% annualized GDP growth last quarter. It’s even more remarkable considering a year ago they were all but certain there’d be a recession by now and the economy would grow at a meager 0.2% rate.

      For all those big swings and misses, you probably have yourself to thank. That’s because consumer spending, which accounts for the biggest part of US GDP, has been relentless, even in the face of the highest interest rates in 23 years.

      But what’s perhaps most remarkable about the US economic growth rate is how much it towers over similarly sized advanced economies.

      For instance:

      – The combined GDP of the 20 countries that use the euro grew at an annualized rate of just 0.1% in the third quarter of last year

      – The UK is growing at a 0.2% annualized rate, according to the latest GDP estimate from November

      – Japan’s economy shrank by 2.1% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to a year prior

      So yeah, prettaaay good indeed.
      US exceptionalism?
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/america-economy-keeps-defying-expectations-110018903.html

    6. Stock market to ‘nowhere?’ Two ETF experts see more trouble ahead in China
      Published Sat, Jan 27 2024 11:11 AM EST
      Updated Sat, Jan 27 2024 11:28 AM EST
      Meredith Mutter
      Done with China?
      watch now
      VIDEO07:11

      China may have trouble attracting investors again this year.

      ETF Action’s Mike Akins sees challenges tied to the country’s ability to generate stock market returns.

      “It’s kind of the old cliché. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me,” the firm’s founding partner told CNBC’s ETF Edge this week. “You’ve got this situation where China’s economy expanded. The stock market went nowhere. It’s been very volatile. There’s been periods where it’s gone way up but also come way down.”

      According to Atkins, emerging market ex-China products are among the largest inflows ETF Action is seeing.

      “You’ve got a whole new issue that you have to think about when going to that market,” he said. “Is it investible from a standpoint of total return? Or is it really a growth story in the economy alone and not in the actual return of the stock market?”

      Franklin Templeton Investments’ David Mann cites another issue for investor hesitancy.

      “The geopolitical factor with China is certainly on everyone’s mind,” said Mann, the firm’s global head of product and capital markets. “China was down last year. It is down again this year. Investors are probably looking a lot at the political side.”

      The Hang Seng Index is down more than 6% this year and almost 30% over the past 52 weeks.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/27/stock-market-to-nowhere-experts-see-more-trouble-ahead-in-china.html

    7. Economy
      Business and Economy
      In Hong Kong, decades of wealth gains evaporate on China’s watch

      Hong Kong’s stock market is lower today than it was in 1997 when the territory returned to Chinese sovereignty.

      Hong Kong’s stock market has failed to make gains since the territory’s return to China
      [File: Tyrone Siu/Reuters]
      By Erin Hale
      Published On 26 Jan 202426 Jan 2024

      Taipei, Taiwan – Like many Hong Kongers, accountant Edelweiss Lam spent the last week watching the city’s stock market wipe out 14 months of gains as the Hang Seng Index fell below the psychological threshold of 15,000 points.

      It was not the first time Lam, who has been investing on and off in Hong Kong stocks since the late 1990s, had seen it happen.

      The index dropped below 15,000 points during SARS in 2003, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and zero-COVID lockdowns in 2022.

      But while ebbs and flows are part of the investment game, Lam said watching the key measure of Hong Kong’s stock market tumble “back to square one” felt different this time.

      “It seems I cannot see the future,” Lam told Al Jazeera by phone from Hong Kong.

      The reason, Lam said, is China.
      …
      https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/1/26/in-hong-kong-decades-of-wealth-gains-evaporate-on-beijings-watch

      1. One of the most fiercely capitalist cities turns to sh$t with communism. Not a big serprize really.

  15. An update:

    Police swarm Beverly Crest mansion occupied by squatters
    KTLA 5
    7 hours ago

    Los Angeles police officers swarmed a Beverly Crest mansion that squatters have turned into a party house on Friday. Authorities responded to reports of a hot prowl burglary at the home located on Beverly Grove Place shortly before 3 p.m.

    Several suspects had reportedly entered the home, with at least one suspect armed with a knife. A group of people inside the home were seen lined up, detained and handcuffed on an outdoor patio.

    Parties at the unoccupied home began in October 2023 when the squatters would host rowdy nightly gatherings and even charge admission to partygoers. Authorities have failed to shut down the parties as the squatters claimed they had a legitimate lease on the property. Neighbors said the disruptive gatherings have not only kept them up all night, but have also left them fearing for their safety.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB62AAiS8g0

    3:42.

    1. During the period known as Rumspringa, beginning at about age 16, Amish youth are no longer under the total control of their parents on weekends and, because they are not baptized, they are not yet under the authority of the church. During this time, many Amish youth engage in rowdy behavior and partying.

    2. “Parties at the unoccupied home began in October 2023 when the squatters would host rowdy nightly gatherings and even charge admission to partygoers. Authorities have failed to shut down the parties as the squatters claimed they had a legitimate lease on the property. Neighbors said the disruptive gatherings have not only kept them up all night, but have also left them fearing for their safety.”

      – What’s the difference? This could just as well been an AirBnB/STR. The only thing missing is the gun shots.
      – STRs are hotels in resi. zoning with no front desk or supervision other than neighbors calling the police in the wee hours of the morning to complain about the loud music an gun shots.
      – Again, not much difference than squatters in a vacant house, in my view, except the STR “sqatters” are paying ridiculous rents and cleaning fees. 😂 🙃 . Prove me wrong…

    3. From the cops to the neighbors to the party attendees to the main squatter.

      What an embarrassing mess.

  18. The greedheads of Manitou Springs – a bellwether of sorts for Colorado’s Front Range – are clinging tenaciously to their delusional wish prices, thinking eager sellers should be lining up to pay $500K+ for 100-year old money pits and literal shacks. Meanwhile, days on market is stretching into the triple digits, but if they can just hold out for the promised Spring Miracle Revival, their stubbornness will Shirley be rewarded.

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Manitou-Springs_CO?source=web

  20. Planned Parenthood Targets Children About Virginity, Invents New Definitions of Sex

    Infowars.com
    January 27th 2024,

    Planned Parenthood posted a video geared toward young people Thursday pushing propaganda that virginity is a social construct and that sex can be anything they want it to be.

    Planned Parenthood
    @PPFA

    Virginity! What is it? What it isn’t. And what’s the big deal about “losing” it? Let’s talk about it: https://youtu.be/ozhO62z2nag

    Jan 25, 2024
    ·
    https://x.com/PPFA/status/1750522761838203271?s=20

    Planned Parenthood
    @PPFA

    The idea of virginity comes from outdated — let’s be real, patriarchal— ways of thinking that hurts everyone. 📢

    Jun 29, 2023
    ·
    https://x.com/PPFA/status/1674462837425446912?s=20

  21. WATCH: Smuggler Caught Illegally In US for 14TH TIME

    by Dan Lyman
    January 27th 2024

    Texas authorities say they arrested a suspected human smuggler from Mexico who has already been caught illegally present in the U.S. on at least 13 prior occasions.

    “Romaldo Lopez Sanchez, 28, Veracruz, MX, was charged & jailed for felony human smuggling. It was confirmed that he had 13 previous apprehensions for illegal entry.”

    Chris Olivarez
    @LtChrisOlivarez
    #RGV: Members of the
    @TxDPS
    Brush Team & #USBP K9 tracked & arrested a smuggling foot guide hiding inside a drainage pipe who smuggled 3 illegal immigrants by raft across the Rio Grande in Mission.

    Romaldo Lopez Sanchez, 28, Veracruz, MX, was charged & jailed for felony human smuggling. It was confirmed that he had 13 previous apprehensions for illegal entry.

    Jan 26, 2024

    https://x.com/LtChrisOlivarez/status/1750902410870976533?s=20

    John R. Modlin
    @USBPChiefTCA

    Over the weekend, Tucson Sector agents apprehended two migrants for unlawful entry into the U.S. Both subjects have alarming felony convictions. One for 2nd Degree Murder and Attempted Murder, and the other for Endangering the Welfare of a Child. Both face federal prosecution.

    Jan 25, 2024
    ·
    https://x.com/USBPChiefTCA/status/1750640595695968294?s=20

    Chief Jason Owens
    @USBPChief

    1/23: USBP agents in Del Rio, TX & Rio Grande Valley, TX nabbed two child sex offenders with prior felony convictions. These subjects were caught trying to re-enter the U.S. illegally. Agents being out on patrol is what stopped them from getting to your communities. #HonorFirst

    Jan 26, 2024
    ·
    https://x.com/USBPChief/status/1751017250092449822?s=20

    Chris Olivarez
    @LtChrisOlivarez
    𝐓𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐬 𝐃𝐏𝐒 𝐀𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐦𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐌𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫

    01/23: As part of a joint anti-smuggling operation,
    @TxDPS
    & #USBP apprehended 7 illegal immigrants after illegally crossing the Rio Grande in Mission #RGV, being guided by a smuggling guide from Mexico.

    Elipidio Camacho Barajas, 35, of Mexico, was arrested for felony human smuggling. After a debrief & fingerprint database verification, Barajas is wanted for MURDER out of Guanajuato, Mexico.

    Jan 23, 2024

    https://x.com/LtChrisOlivarez/status/1749917835168469271?s=20

  22. ‘In recent years, limited liability corporations, hedge funds and private equity firms have bought up hundreds of thousands of houses across the country and turned them into rental units. In Allegheny County, out-of-state buyers have snatched up more than a thousand houses primarily in the eastern suburbs…make some minor repairs and put them on the rental market. ‘That’s part of their business model…Cut out the labor. There’s no superintendent, there’s no maintenance person, there’s no one that they know is going to be around’

    Well by all means we need lower rates now dammit to support these financial innovators!

    1. ‘In recent years, limited liability corporations, hedge funds and private equity firms have bought up hundreds of thousands of houses across the country and turned them into rental units.’

      How did US rental housing investment turn into a veritable gold mine in recent years?

      Lotsa folks are gonna lose a lot of money when Housing Bubble 2.0 collapses on these rental property investment schemes.

      1. MONEYWATCH
        Record number of Americans are homeless amid nationwide surge in rent, report finds
        moneywatch
        By Elizabeth Napolitano
        Edited By Alain Sherter
        January 26, 2024 / 4:07 PM EST / CBS News

        A growing number of Americans are ending up homeless as soaring rents in recent years squeeze their budgets.

        According to a Jan. 25 report from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, roughly 653,000 people reported experiencing homelessness in January of 2023, up roughly 12% from the same time a year prior and 48% from 2015. That marks the largest single-year increase in the country’s unhoused population on record, Harvard researchers said.
        …
        https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rent-homelessness-harvard-report-center-for-housing-studies/

  23. What a troll Ben Shapiro’s Tom Macdonald new anti-woke rap single tops Justin Timberlake and Britney Spears

    Let’s look at the stats, I’ve got the facts
    My money like Lizzo, my pockets are fat
    Homie, I’m epic, don’t be a WAP
    Dawg, it’s a yarmulke, homie, no cap
    Look at the graphs, look at my charts
    You’re blowing money on strippers and cars
    You’re going to prison, I’m on television
    Dawg, no one knows who you are
    Keep hating on me on the internet
    My comment section all woke Karens
    I make racks off compound interest
    Y’all live with your parents
    Nicki, take some notes
    I just did this for fun
    All my people download this
    Let’s get a Billboard number one

  25. ‘One of the things I’ve seen too is with Airbnb, investors take these spaces like a little apartment, a carriage house, a studio — what was affordable housing for people…What I see happen a lot is that some landlords or investors raise rent so high that people can’t afford it. Those people move out and they put in an Airbnb’

    Fannie and freddie will make these loans.

    2. Fannie and Freddie make these loans

      Never understood why Fannie/Freddie make, I believe, up to 10 subsidized loans.
      Two loans, not 10.

      Yes they charge more fees for rentals and higher rates but by doing this they prevent people from buying homes which is, based on their charters, their main (only) job.
      Makes no sense, housing agencies willingly preventing people from getting housing.

      1. Because the applicants all lie on their mortgage applications. They say the home will be their primary residence to get the lower interest rate. Few loans get audited as long as they don’t default on the first payment.

  27. Is now a good time to ignore the gloomsters and follow the classic Wall Street advice to buy stocks at all times, because the stock market always goes up?

    1. Markets
      ‘You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0’: A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession
      William Edwards
      Jan 27, 2024, 4:12 AM CST
      traders new york stock exchange
      Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

      – Jon Wolfenbarger says the stock market today resembles the tech bubble leading up to 2000.

      – Wolfenbarger, the founder of BullAndBearProfits.com, says a recession will burst the bubble.

      – Other market observers have expressed concerns about the surge of the “Magnificent 7.”
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-tech-bubble-valuations-sp500-nasdaq-recession-wolfenbarger-2024-1

    2. JOBS
      Billionaire bond fund manager questions unemployment data: ‘Hard to believe’
      By Kristen Altus, Fox Business
      Published Jan. 27, 2024, 9:45 p.m. ET

      Amid a seemingly growing list of major company layoffs in 2024, one billionaire bond fund manager is raising questions over some data.

      During an interview on “Making Money with Charles Payne,” DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, known as the “Bond King,” pointed out state unemployment numbers he described as “hard to believe.”

      “Amazingly, 88% of the states, and I think they have D.C. in there so there’s 51 of them, 88% of them are reporting rising unemployment over the last six months. And I’m having a very hard time squaring this circle,” Gundlach told FOX Business host Charles Payne on Thursday.

      “If 88% of the states are reporting rising unemployment, how can it be that national unemployment remains stable at a very, very low level?” he further posited.

      Data from the December jobs report showed the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.7% after rising for three straight months, driven by a sizable drop in the jobless rate for teenagers.

      However, a recent report from business and executive firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found the pace of job cuts by U.S. employers accelerated in 2023, with the number of layoffs surging 98% compared with the previous year.

      Gundlach pointed out that states which have seen falling unemployment — including Texas, Pennsylvania, North Dakota and Wyoming — likely won’t offset rising unemployment in states like Florida, Illinois, California and New York.

      “I’m skeptical about this data,” the bond king said. “The leading economic indicators have been very negative for a long time. The yield curve has been inverted for a long time. But the thing that I’m most concerned about now economically is reports coming from the states.”

      He further noted similarities between markets now and the “inflation fight” in the late 1970s to early ’80s, as well as comparable recession concerns.

      “The yield curve has been inverted now for about 80 weeks, maybe a little more than 80 weeks,” Gundlach said. “The only episode that had a longer period of an inverted yield curve before the recession came was in the late ‘70s, early ’80s, which, interestingly, was also the last time we had an inflation fight going on.”

      “The 10-year yield was lower than the two-year yield by 108 basis points. And now it’s 18. When you start to invert, you really get to be on recession watch,” he added. “And the fact that recession hasn’t come after 80 plus weeks of yield curve inversion is a very bad logic to say it’s not coming.”

      Looking ahead to how the 2024 markets will play out, Gundlach predicted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will cut rates.
      …
      https://nypost.com/2024/01/27/lifestyle/billionaire-bond-fund-manager-jeffrey-gundlach-questions-unemployment-data-hard-to-believe/

      1. “Looking ahead to how the 2024 markets will play out, Gundlach predicted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will cut rates.“

        As a favor to incumbents during an election year.

    1. Financial Times
      Opinion Bitcoin
      Crypto may have become boring, but it still isn’t legit
      The SEC’s approval of 11 bitcoin ETFs is not as meaningful as aficionados would like to think
      Headshot for Jemima Kelly
      Jemima Kelly
      Ben Hickey illustration of the bitcoin sign on a black fishing hook drawn on orange background.
      Jemima Kelly 3 hours ago

      It was easy to poke fun at crypto back in late 2022. The market had tanked by about two-thirds in the space of a year; many of the industry’s biggest companies and coins had collapsed into oblivion, their flagrant practices exposed; and the bubble that had driven receipts for pixelated images of apes (remember NFTs?) to sell for millions of dollars had burst. Longtime critics like me were being encouraged to take virtual victory laps, while the crypto crew had egg, clearly, all over their laser-eyed faces.

      Just over a year later, however, poking fun might seem less straightforward. Crypto prices have recovered significantly, with the market valuation having roughly doubled over the past twelve months. Earlier this month, the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the listing of 11 spot bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs), giving investors exposure to the cryptocurrency via regulated products that can be bought and sold like stocks, and are issued by some of the best-established asset managers. Meanwhile, Larry Fink, head of BlackRock, the biggest asset manager in the world and one of those offering a bitcoin ETF, has become something of bitcoin evangelist, calling it “an asset class that protects you”.

      Is it time for the likes of me to admit we were wrong? Was the approval of the ETFs a game-changer? Is crypto now kind of . . . legit?

      The hyperbole has come in thick and fast, certainly. “It’s not unreasonable to suggest that [the SEC’s approval] may be the biggest development on Wall Street in 30 years,” Michael Saylor, executive chair of software-company-turned-crypto hoarder MicroStrategy, told Bloomberg.

      “The significance of this moment cannot be overstated,” gushed Brad Garlinghouse, chief executive of crypto firm Ripple on X. “Today’s news is further legitimisation of crypto as an asset class,” he wrote.

      And yet despite these lofty proclamations, and the fact that this was heralded as a landmark event by both the crypto and mainstream press, what has happened is distinctly dull. The only tiny glimmer of excitement came when the SEC’s X account was compromised, meaning the ETFs’ approval was announced ahead of time. We haven’t suddenly found out the true identity of bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. There is no newfangled initialised asset class on offer that can magic up money out of thin air (before NFTs, you might remember ICOs, STOs, and IEOs).

      No, all that happened is that crypto has gone from being an exciting and rebellious alternative to traditional finance, a way of “being your own bank”, to simply providing a means for regular investors to diversify their portfolios and for asset managers to eke out a bit of extra revenue.

      Crypto in 2024 is, in other words, rather boring. But boring does not equal legitimate, as SEC chair Gary Gensler himself pointed out when the announcement was made. The commission’s approval of the bitcoin ETFs was not an endorsement of bitcoin or crypto more widely, but rather the result of a court ruling that found the SEC’s long-standing opposition to bitcoin ETFs — on the grounds they could be subject to fraud and manipulation — was arbitrary.

      In a statement, Gensler said that “though we’re merit neutral, I’d note that . . . bitcoin is primarily a speculative, volatile asset that’s also used for illicit activity including ransomware, money laundering, sanction evasion, and terrorist financing,”
      …

Comments are closed.