thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

They Understand What Kind Of Disease They Contracted

A report from NBC 2. “The big boom of 2020 is over. In fact, Zillow predicts the Florida Housing Market will slow down in the coming years. Sharyn Olander’s waterfront home in Old Bridge Village in North Fort Myers is on the market. She tried to sell it last year right after the Hurricane but eventually gave up. This time around, she thought she would have better luck. However, she’s had no bites since December. ‘Since then, we’ve dropped it like 3 or 4 times and now we’re looking at 303. And there’s not much lower we can go in order to buy a new house,’ said Olander. ‘When you put it on the market, you get really excited. You’re looking forward to getting out of a new place and into a new chapter. When no one comes, then you get really depressed and down.'”

“Sam Yaffey is a long-time realtor based in Cape Coral. She says the market is kind of a mixed bag right now, and there’s a couple reasons for that. One of them is that we have so many homes for sale in Southwest Florida. ‘We’ve got a little bit of a hangover with the Hurricane. With people having to repair their homes before they could sell them and a whole bunch of things like that. So, we have a sudden increase in inventory once everybody suddenly got their houses fixed,’ said Yaffey.”

The News Press. “Although there is no formal appeal process for Lee County to follow on FEMA’s recent decision to slash the county’s and four municipalities’ ratings to the lowest possible rung on its floodplain management scale, effectively cutting residents’ National Flood Insurance Plan discount from 25% down to nothing, county commissioners decided Tuesday they would pursue one anyways. Commissioner Cecil Pendergrass said when he spoke with colleagues in D.C., ‘Their attitude is ‘if you’re gong to live in Florida, you pay the price. It’s revenge politics,’ he said.”

NBC Montana. “The Gallatin Association of Realtors announced prices dropped for single-family residences and condos and townhouses in February. Median sales prices for single-family residences dropped by 6% from January to $895,000. Median prices for condos and townhouses dropped 7% to an average of $527,500. Median sales prices for condos and townhouses in February decreased -7.0% to fall to $527,500.”

LA Daily News in California. “April 1 marked the one-year anniversary of Measure ULA taking effect in the city of Los Angeles, and by any measure, the misleadingly named ‘mansion tax’ is a disaster. The luxury home market in Los Angeles saw a sharp decline in the number of sales during Measure ULA’s first year. Many owners rushed to sell before the tax took effect, but even so, the steep drop of nearly 70% in the 12 months since the tax took effect may have taken city officials by surprise. Only 125 homes priced over $5 million sold in L.A. since April 1, 2023, compared to 416 in the previous 12-month period. As of March 8, according to the city controller’s office, Measure ULA has brought in just $173.6 million, about a quarter of what the city had estimated.”

Capital and Main on California. “Not everyone made it to the top floors of Oceanwide Plaza – the abandoned billion-dollar development of luxury high-rises in downtown Los Angeles – but the graffiti artist called SEK was determined to get there. That was in early February, when local graffiti artists first began hitting the construction site’s three towers after becoming newly aware that the property was mostly unguarded. In that first week, the buildings would be smothered in paint, as taggers left their names and acronyms in elaborate shapes and colors. ‘The city obviously didn’t care,’ he added of the construction site frozen in place. ‘They would’ve done something about it a long time ago if it was really a concern. … The building was already ugly to begin with. We just added a little color to it.'”

“Some see the marking of the buildings as a symbolic act of reclaiming territory from an overextended development project that had become a monumental eyesore in the heart of downtown. After five years, the business and political classes had done little to resolve the problem of empty towers looming over a neighborhood in desperate need of affordable housing. ‘I love it, man. I wish I could buy that building and just have it,’ said photographer Estevan Oriol, famous for his vibrant pictures and films on hip-hop and Chicano culture. ‘If you go downstairs on the street level, there’s all kinds of people in tents, pissing and shitting all over the streets, and the rats. Why aren’t they putting the money into that, helping those people?'”

WOAI in Texas. “With the rapid growth in San Antonio, new apartment complexes are being built and the San Antonio Apartment Association said that could mean lower rent rates. ‘I think we’ve all seen a lot of new apartments getting built. I feel every single highway or road that I’m on, I feel like I see a new apartment complex going up,’ said Alan Gonzales, Executive Director of Business Development for Galaxy Builders. ‘If you overbuild and you build too many projects, those units have to be absorbed, right?'”

The Real Deal on Texas. “As he copes with a rash of defaults and mounting foreclosures, Alan Stalcup now faces his first investor lawsuit. The head of multifamily syndicator GVA was hit with litigation claiming he lied to his limited partner on a San Antonio deal about how he financed the project. Limited partner Overwatch, a private Fort Worth-based REIT and frequent Stalcup investor, alleges the syndicator’s ‘fraud, fraudulent inducement and fraud by omission’ led to the foreclosure of the so-called Solara apartment complex last month and wiped out Overwatch’s equity. The REIT claims it suffered a $7 million loss. Stalcup failed to notify Overwatch of the second loan, according to the complaint. ‘Overwatch would not have invested in Solara had it known,’ the suit reads.”

Asbury Park Press in New Jersey. “The developer of two Toms River downtown apartment towers will be declared in default Monday, April 1, because they have not yet acquired all the permits necessary to build the 281-apartment project, Mayor Daniel Rodrick said. Capodagli Property Co. has not yet broken ground on the pair of six-story towers slated to be built at Main and Water streets, at the site of the old Red Carpet Inn. ‘Capodagli is going to be declared in default,’ Rodrick said. ‘They will have 30 days to cure, and if they don’t, we’re pulling out.'”

The New York Post. “Brooklyn’s tallest building is struggling to pay its skyscraping loans. Michael Stern, the developer of 9 DeKalb Avenue’s 93-story The Brooklyn Tower, has defaulted on a $240 million mezzanine loan and now faces foreclosure, the Real Deal has reported. A UCC foreclosure auction has been scheduled for Jun. 10 by Silverstein Capital Partners, which issued the loan in 2019, according to marketing materials. In addition to now having a reputation for financial trouble, the looming metallic supertall has also become known for its ‘evil vibes.’ A video producer who lives across the street previously told The Post that the building looks like ‘the headquarters of an evil corporation in a superhero movie.'”

Bisnow on Massachusetts. “Greater Boston delivered a record amount of industrial space last year, punctuated by a massive five-story Amazon warehouse that completed in the fourth quarter. But now, the pandemic-era boom has begun to evaporate. The region had 1.2M SF in the industrial construction pipeline at the start of the year, 80% lower than one year earlier, according to Newmark’s latest market report, which says much of that new construction hasn’t been leased. ‘We’ve got also a wide range of other spec products that are either sitting vacant that we finished last year or are close to wrapping up completion and aren’t leased,’ said Jason Grant, president at Arco New England.”

CBC News in Canada. “Dozens of Brampton landlords who say the city’s rental licensing pilot will penalize compliant landlords protested outside city hall on Wednesday, asking council to scrap the two- year pilot. Protesters shouted, ‘No to RRL,’ after the city announced it will relaunch the contentious residential rental licensing pilot, aimed at curbing illegal lodging, as March 28 or as late as April 19. Landlord Azad Goyat was among those protesting. Goyat rents out his basement to four people and his first floor to six people, and says he is one of the compliant landlords. He says instead of providing support with delays in landlord-tenant disputes, the city has decided to fine ‘helpless landlords’ with fines for problem tenants. Due to delays at the Landlord and Tenant Board, landlords like Goyat say complaints haven’t been heard and some fear they will be penalized if they enroll in the program. ‘Landlords are totally helpless,’ he said.”

Estonia Public Broadcasting. “The real estate market has started bouncing back from various crises, said Martin Vahter, executive manager of 1Partner Kinnisvara. Vahter explained that in stable times, about 2,000 to 2,500 new apartments were built in Tallinn annually. During the construction boom of 2021, over 4,000 apartments were built. When the Euribor rate began to rise sharply in the summer of 2022, the number of new apartments dropped to 1,200. In 2023, fewer than 1,000 new apartments were built in Tallinn. ‘The real estate market is very sensitive to interest rates, and when the Euribor was at zero for ten consecutive years and then sharply rose to four, with the final interest rate reaching 5-6 percent, it drastically slowed down the purchasing of new developments,’ Vahter told ‘Terevisioon.”

“Vahter said that investors have disappeared from the real estate sector. ‘In Tallinn, the annual rental income compared to the purchase price is about 4 percent, and the loan interest is 7 percent. Naturally, money flows out of real estate into better asset classes. It has not yet started to return, and those investors have disappeared,’ he added.”

Business Insider. “Japan’s long-comatose economy is finally showing proof of life. After a catastrophic real-estate implosion in the early 1990s, the country’s economy spent the next three decades shrinking. Like Japan in the 1990s, China is now staring down a property-market collapse. Real estate once accounted for 20% to 30% of the country’s GDP, and all aspects of China’s economy — local governments, households, the banking system — depend on money from the property market to survive. After decades of overbuilding and speculation, this massive debt pile is coming due.”

“This is what we now recognize as a ‘balance-sheet recession,’ a term the Nomura economist Richard Koo coined in 1997 to describe Japan’s economic sluggishness as society paid down debt from its property-market collapse. Now, Koo says, Chinese academics and policymakers are flocking to Japan to glean some kind of wisdom from the country’s experience. ‘I tell them there’s a big difference between Japan 30 years ago and China now. When we got into this balance-sheet recession, no one knew what kind of disease we contracted,’ Koo told me. ‘We were all lost for a long time.'”

“‘The Chinese are talking about it every day, they understand what kind of disease they contracted,’ Koo said. ‘Whether that translates into a speedy, sufficient, and sustained stimulus, we haven’t got there yet.'”

Related Posts

It’s Going To Hurt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqhlrHkHLTM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df2mOkRBIq8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ox93ZstFI6Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQidglb7e08

This Post Has 58 Comments

  1. How did you lose yer shack Sam?

    With people having to repair their homes before they could sell them and a whole bunch of things like that. So, we have a sudden increase in inventory once everybody suddenly got their houses fixed.

  2. ‘the steep drop of nearly 70% in the 12 months since the tax took effect may have taken city officials by surprise. Only 125 homes priced over $5 million sold in L.A. since April 1, 2023, compared to 416 in the previous 12-month period. As of March 8, according to the city controller’s office, Measure ULA has brought in just $173.6 million, about a quarter of what the city had estimated’

    You mean when the wizard of Oz pushes buttons and pulls levers, sometimes the wrong thing spits out?

  4. ‘We’ve got also a wide range of other spec products that are either sitting vacant that we finished last year or are close to wrapping up completion and aren’t leased’

    The good news is Boston real estate only goes up Jason. Yer a winnah!

  5. ‘I tell them there’s a big difference between Japan 30 years ago and China now. When we got into this balance-sheet recession, no one knew what kind of disease we contracted,’ Koo told me. ‘We were all lost for a long time…The Chinese are talking about it every day, they understand what kind of disease they contracted,’ Koo said. ‘Whether that translates into a speedy, sufficient, and sustained stimulus, we haven’t got there yet’

    Yeah it was a money printing/bad loan shuffling disease Dick. We’ll see you in 2054!

    1. Hair-of-the-dog stilus hangover cures are never rightfully acknowledged as part of the disease.

  6. ‘she’s had no bites since December. ‘Since then, we’ve dropped it like 3 or 4 times and now we’re looking at 303. And there’s not much lower we can go in order to buy a new house,’ said Olander. ‘When you put it on the market, you get really excited. You’re looking forward to getting out of a new place and into a new chapter. When no one comes, then you get really depressed and down’

    Cheer up Sharyn, at least yer not giving it away!

  7. ‘If you go downstairs on the street level, there’s all kinds of people in tents, pissing and shitting all over the streets, and the rats. Why aren’t they putting the money into that, helping those people?’

    They are spending much dinero for those people to piss and sh$t on the streets Steve. I haven’t heard of them paying rats but you should bring that up at the next meeting.

        1. Bring California with you.

          They need to remember, they are refugees, not missionaries.

          1. A lot of them don’t. Many former Californians have little self awareness. The place they just left is wretched and reckt for a reason

    2. They really are. I pay hundreds of dollars a year in sales taxes in LA County after we voted to jack it up 50c to allegedly help the vagrants but of course that all goes down a black hole.

  8. CNBC — Housing ‘affordability has just totally collapsed,’ economist says (4/2/2024):

    “Would-be homebuyers need to earn $113,520 a year to afford the typical house in the U.S. That is 35% more than what the typical household earns annually, which is $84,072, according to a new analysis by Redfin, a national real estate brokerage site.

    “Since the pandemic, affordability has just totally collapsed,” said Chen Zhao, a senior economist at Redfin.

    February 2021 was the last month when the typical household earned more money than it needed to afford the median home. There’s been a deficit ever since, Zhao said.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/02/housing-affordability-has-just-totally-collapsed-economist-says.html

    February 2021?

    One month after the installation of the most financially destructive administrations in history into the White House.

    Money printing has consequences.

  9. “The Gallatin Association of Realtors announced prices dropped for single-family residences and condos and townhouses in February. Median sales prices for single-family residences dropped by 6% from January to $895,000”

    So Gallatin County has a median household income of 83K. That’s over 10x income for median home. No bubble there. 🙄

    1. Median sales prices for single-family residences dropped by 6% from January to $895,000”
      I know, how crazy is that. I would have expected it to be in the 200-300K range. Shows how little I know.

  10. A report from NBC 2. “The big boom of 2020 is over. In fact, Zillow predicts the Florida Housing Market will slow down in the coming years.“

    – Thank you Captain Obvious. 🤡 🌎
    – Sheesh! MSM late to the party, as usual.
    – The big boom is mentioned. Now comes the bust.
    – Bidenomics, (BIG government (including the nefarious Fed) induced inflation, Government to big- parasitically hamstringing the real economy, Government (yes, including the Fed) induced multiple asset bubbles now bursting , and we have a recipe for disaster. The perfect storm caused by central planning – command and control economy.
    – Socialism – even a little – but we’re way beyond that now, destroys the economy and the social fabric of a nation. Think former USSR. Everything turns to sh*t. 💩
    – Are we there yet? Yes.
    – And don’t say ‘but pandemic.’ It was the Government response to the pandemic that FUBARed the economy.
    – Enjoyed the boom? Now enjoy the bust. Nothing new under the sun. 🌞

    1. “It was the Government response to the pandemic that FUBARed the economy”

      +1

      Greatest FRAUD of my lifetime.

      1. No, the economy was FUBARing before the pandemic. The money pandemic printing kept us treading water for a little longer.

  11. Does it almost seem as though the Fed intends to stay the course on its plans announced months back to keep rates higher for longer?

    1. U.S. Markets
      Rising Treasury yields pose a test for richly valued US stocks
      By Lewis Krauskopf
      April 2, 202410:06 PM PDT
      Updated 9 hours ago
      Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 1, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

      NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) – Rising Treasury yields could provide the latest test for a rally that has made U.S. stocks increasingly expensive while taking them to fresh record highs.

      Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year helped the S&P 500 notch a 10% gain in the first quarter, even as Treasury yields have accelerated their advance in recent weeks. Valuations rose as well: the benchmark index is trading at just over 21 times forward earnings estimates, its richest since January 2022, according to LSEG Datastream.
      Now, strong economic data is whittling away at expectations for how much the central bank will cut rates this year. The 10-year yield, which moves inversely to bond prices, hit 4.4% on Tuesday, its highest level in more than four months.
      So far, a resilient economy, robust corporate earnings and excitement over artificial intelligence have helped stocks largely shrug off rising yields this year. Some investors worry, however, that elevated valuations could make equities more vulnerable if rates keep climbing. Besides raising the cost of capital for companies and households, higher yields can increase the appeal of “risk-free” Treasury bonds compared to equities.

      “The fact that (yields) are breaking above a previous ceiling here is giving pause,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. “The trend of these rates is disconcerting because you have this continued series of higher highs here that is being perpetuated today.”

      Rising yields have helped upend the stock market several times in recent years. Stocks sold off in September and October when the 10-year yield surged to a 16-year high of just above 5%, only to come roaring back when yields reversed. In 2022, the S&P 500 plunged 19% as the Fed rapidly raised rates to head off soaring inflation. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% while the 10-year yield was last around 4.35%.

      One key reason investors have been more sanguine about rising yields this year is the Fed, which has signaled it intends to cut rates in 2024. But strong economic data has made investors doubt the central bank will be able to ease rates as much previously expected.

      Futures markets on Tuesday showed investors pricing in around 70 basis points in cuts this year, compared to more than 150 bps in January. That is less than the 75 bps the central bank projected for this year.

      At the same time, various measures suggest stock market valuations have become less attractive.
      The equity risk premium – which compares the S&P 500 earnings yield against the 10-year Treasury yield – turned negative in the first quarter for the first time since 2002, said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.

      “Bonds offer some real competition,” said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. market strategist at Ned Davis Research. “So if we were to see the 10-year Treasury yield spike back towards 5% like it did last fall, stocks would probably reflect that and equity valuations would need to come down.”
      …
      https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/rising-treasury-yields-pose-test-richly-valued-us-stocks-2024-04-03/

    3. Are you braced for stock market turbulence following a period of irrational exuberance that led to overvalued stocks at all-time highs?

  14. Collin Rugg
    @CollinRugg

    NEW: Former ESPN host Sage Steele says her interview with Joe Biden was completely scripted & she was ordered to not deviate from the script at all.

    The president of the United States can’t answer a question by himself. Insane.

    “It was so structured and I was told, ‘you will say every word that we write out, you will not deviate from the script…’ to the word, like every single question was scripted.”

    “Gone over dozens of times by many executives, editors, and executives. Absolutely. I was on script and was told not to deviate as it was very much, this is what you will ask.”

    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1775511689980694546?s=20

    1. Former ESPN Host Says Her Biden Interview Was Totally Scripted ‘To The Word’

      Infowars.com
      April 3rd 2024, 8:47 am

      Ex-ESPN host Sage Steele, who was suspended by the Disney-owned sports channel in 2021 after she criticized the network for mandating Covid jabs, recently exposed how every word coming out of Joe Biden’s mouth is controlled by handlers.

      Describing an interview she had with Biden in March of 2023, Steele said, “That was an interesting experience in its own right because it was so structured and I was told, ‘You will say every word that we write out, you will not deviate from this script, and go!’”

      “To the word,” she continued, “Every single question was scripted, gone over dozens of times by many editors and executives. Absolutely, I was on script and was told not to deviate. It was very much, ‘This is what you will ask, this is how you will say it. No follow-ups. Next.’”

      The account captures the true state of the Biden administration as he’s merely a puppet figure for the Deep State establishment being helmed by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and their acol

      https://www.infowars.com/posts/former-espn-host-says-her-biden-interview-was-totally-scripted-to-the-word/

      1. And that was a year ago. He’s even worse now.

        If Sage is going to spill the beans, tell us, WHICH execs scripted it? WHO in the Biden admin ordered this? Don’t use “they.”

        Everyone says it’s Hilary and Obama but I don’t think so. They certainly aren’t running day-to-day operations, like pasting questions and little pictures of reporters onto Biden’s notecards, or directing the Easter Bunny which way to point Joe. No, I think it’s the chief of staff or something.

        1. If Sage is going to spill the beans, tell us, WHICH execs scripted it? WHO in the Biden admin ordered this? Don’t use “they.”

          I suppose that some people are afraid of being suicided.

  15. Private money to fund elections will be banned in Wisconsin after voters Tuesday approved a constitutional amendment put forward by Republicans in reaction to grants received in 2020 that were funded by donations from Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.

    Voters also approved a second question put on the ballot by the Republican-controlled Legislature that amends the constitution to say that only election officials can administer elections. That’s already state law, but putting it in the constitution makes it more difficult to repeal or change.

    “Wisconsin has spoken and the message is clear: elections belong to voters, not out-of-state billionaires,” said state GOP Chairman Brian Schimming in a statement.

    By adopting the amendments, “voters sent a clear message that they want to keep private money out of election administration,” said Rick Esenberg, president of the conservative Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty.

    Trump, appearing at a rally in Green Bay on Tuesday evening, accused rogue nations of “pumping migrants across our wide open border,” and “sending prisoners, murders, drug dealers, mental patients, terrorists”

    He also claimed that migrants would cost the country trillions of dollars in public benefits and cause Social Security and Medicare to “buckle and collapse.”

    “If you want to help Joe Biden wheel granny off the cliff to fund government benefits for illegals, then vote for Crooked Joe Biden,” he said. “But when I am president, instead of throwing granny overboard, I will send Joe Biden’s illegal aliens back home.”

    https://wisconsinwatch.org/2024/04/wisconsin-voters-approve-ban-on-private-election-grants-as-biden-trump-win-primary/

    1. As US ‘debt bomb’ spirals towards $35 trillion, hedge fund boss warns politicians are spending ‘at the expense of future generations’

      The headline makes it sound like it will be at least 20 years before the SHTF. The younger generations are already being impacted. And thy are reacting. The “lay flat” generation in China is a good example, and we hear of similar stories with GenZ.

  17. . ‘Since then, we’ve dropped it like 3 or 4 times and now we’re looking at 303. And there’s not much lower we can go in order to buy a new house,’ said Olander. ‘

    Buyers are under no obligation to fund your next shack purchase, greedhead. Mr. Market determines fair market value, not your galactic sense of entitlement.

  18. Median sales prices for single-family residences dropped by 6% from January to $895,000. Median prices for condos and townhouses dropped 7% to an average of $527,500.

    But…but…muh realtor said shack ownership ensured I’d be building “generational wealth.” Suzanne’s research verified this.

  19. Goyat rents out his basement to four people and his first floor to six people

    How is that even legal?

    1. “It is often easier to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission.” —Admiral Grace Hopper

      1. IIRC, she helped create the COBOL programming language.

        There is a lot of COBOL code still running on mainframes. Some of it is 60 years old. Why not replace it? Because it’s been fully debugged. IBM sells mainframes that are backward compatible and can still run those old binaries.

  20. In other news, Lauren Boebert was hospitalized here in my little burg:

    U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert underwent surgery for a blood clot after being admitted to a Loveland hospital with severe leg swelling Monday afternoon, campaign officials announced Tuesday night.

  21. ‘Commissioner Cecil Pendergrass said when he spoke with colleagues in D.C., ‘Their attitude is ‘if you’re gong to live in Florida, you pay the price. It’s revenge politics’

    Even with my limited knowledge of how insurance works in yer sh$thole strip of sand Cecil, I’d bet yer getting a taxpayer subsidy.

  22. ‘The REIT claims it suffered a $7 million loss. Stalcup failed to notify Overwatch of the second loan, according to the complaint. ‘Overwatch would not have invested in Solara had it known,’ the suit reads’

    How do you like those non-recourse loans now? So they sue him for lying. Good luck getting any money out of Alan, much less 7 million$.

  23. ‘In addition to now having a reputation for financial trouble, the looming metallic supertall has also become known for its ‘evil vibes’

    A super tall in Brooklyn, why not? They’ve pretty much all been juicy tales of woe.

  24. ‘Goyat rents out his basement to four people and his first floor to six people, and says he is one of the compliant landlord’

    You got a real mickey mouse operation going on up there Brampton.

  26. Testimony: NO Signature Verification Occurred in Fulton County, Georgia in 2020
    Robert Gouveia Esq.
    6 hours ago

    Testimony from Mark Wingate during the Jeffrey Clark disbarment proceeding reveals Fulton County election officials did not complete signature requirements during the 2020 election, and were openly hostile when questioned about improprieties during the electoral process.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGUN260F0EU

    23:25.

    1. We know they stole it in 2020

      We also know they will try to steal it again this year.

      We also know that they ceased to be “the loyal opposition” a very long time ago. They won’t “lose with honor” to preserve the republic. They are happy to burn it down as long as they stay in power. I would say “stay in charge”, but they are well past that point.

Comments are closed.