Ushering In An Era Of Neoliberal Feudalism Under A New Class Of Finance Aristocrats
A weekend topic starting with the Associated Press. “If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, Republicans hope he will fulfill a longstanding GOP goal of privatizing the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have been under government control since the Great Recession. Republicans contend the Federal Housing Finance Agency has been overseeing the two firms far too long, stymying competition in the housing finance market while putting taxpayers at risk should another bailout be necessary, like in 2008. President Donald Trump sought to free the two companies from government control when he was in office, but Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 prevented that from happening.The two firms guarantee roughly half of the $12 trillion U.S. home loan market.”
“‘I don’t think there should be any concerns that suddenly mortgages will become more or less expensive,’ said economist Mark Calabria, who headed the FHFA during Trump’s presidency. ‘If you want to be able to strengthen our mortgage financial system so that we make sure that people are in reasonable, responsible loans and that we don’t have to bail out the mortgage finance system again, we need to fix Fannie and Freddie.'”
“Calabria said there’s no need for a federal guarantee. Other huge firms the government bailed out during the 2008 recession, including Citibank, AIG and General Motors, remain public companies and haven’t needed a conservatorship, he said. ‘The same set of law around Citibank exists for Fannie and Freddie — why are we treating them differently?’ Calabria said. ‘There were implied guarantees behind the auto companies. We bailed out GM. Are people who are against the conservatorship ending also suggesting the government take over GM?'”
From Mises.org. “The U.S. national housing finance market is uniquely dominated by two government mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They do exactly the same thing, creating mortgage-backed securities that are de facto government-guaranteed. They are both completely dependent on the credit support of the U.S. Treasury, and thus dependent on American taxpayers. Both went broke in 2008, and both were bailed out by the Treasury, which still owns $193 billion of their senior preferred stock, sixteen years later. Both are in an unending conservatorship of a very political government bureaucracy, the Federal Housing Finance Agency. They are in effect a single huge market intervention and subsidy.”
“They create a systemically risky concentration of national mortgage credit exposure in Washington DC. They are and always have been politicized. They are popular with many politicians because they can be used to create subsidies to favored political constituencies without Congress having to appropriate funds. They are highly popular with Wall Street firms because they create securities easy to sell to domestic and global investors by using the credit of the U.S. Treasury. Fannie/Freddie were central to causing the U.S. housing bubble of 1999-2006 and its subsequent collapse, and supported the explosive house price inflation of 2019-2022, which has made U.S. house prices widely unaffordable.”
From Bisnow. “Regional banks are delaying disclosing the distress in their commercial real estate loan portfolios, creating greater fragility in the overall financial system, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York warned in a research paper published this week. ‘The expansion of the maturity wall represents a financial stability risk as a sizable, and increasing, portion of bank regulatory capital is at risk should these CRE loans default,’ authors Matteo Crosignani and Saketh Prazad wrote. ‘The possibility of a large and sudden capital hit for banks becomes more likely as the maturity wall becomes taller.’ The practice of not recognizing distress on their books may provide short-term relief from regulators and investors, but a large number of defaults occurring at the same time would result in a huge capital hit for banks. Solvency concerns could cause a bank run by depositors, along with a flood of property foreclosures and fire sales, the authors wrote.”
Wall Street Journal. “The U.S. housing market is stuck. ‘People are only moving if they have to,’ said Nicole Dudley, a real-estate agent in the Phoenix area. ‘We’ll go a week without a showing, which is a long time compared to even last year.’ One bright spot this year has been the market for newly built homes, because home builders are offering incentives that lower buyers’ mortgage rates. ‘Buydowns are the silver bullet right now,’ said Michael Forsum, president of Dallas builder Landsea Homes.”
San Antonio Current. “Three big Texas metros, including San Antonio, reported declines in home values over the 12 months, suggesting the state’s market bubble may have burst, according to ResiClub. San Antonio experienced the third-steepest decline in home values over that time, with prices slipping 2.7% since September of last year. The Alamo City metro, which includes New Braunfels, also posted a nearly 7% reduction in home values since their peak in summer of 2022. Even so, values in San Antonio are still 32.3% higher on average than they were in March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the data.”
“San Antonio’s neighbor to the north, Austin, tied with New Orleans for having the largest home value declines. Both metros reported a 4% drop in home values from September 2023. What’s more, home values in Austin are down a dramatic 20.4% since their 2022 peak.”
Bisnow South Florida. “A wave of aging condos are flooding the market amid looming year-end regulations that could prompt six-figure special assessments. Condo listings rose 60% in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the third quarter, and 85% of all listings are condos 30 years or older, according to a new study by real estate brokerage ISG World. In just two years, the value of the average condo 30 years and older has fallen more than $100K, from $325K in 2022 to $218K at the end of September, according to ISG. Founder and CEO Craig Studnicky told Bisnow in an interview Friday that he thinks prices of older units will continue to dip but that segment of the market is ‘pretty close to the bottom.'”
“Starting Dec. 31, Florida lawmakers made it so condo associations can no longer waive reserves. They required condo associations to conduct structural integrity inspections by a licensed architect or engineer to evaluate walls, primary structures and systems. The condos then must fund reserves to cover the cost of any needed structural repairs, which could lead to special assessments on unit owners that can cost upwards of $175K, CBS News reported, a fee many owners are struggling to pay. A significant issue facing these condos is the lack of buyer interest. Between September 2023 and February 2024, more than 72% of existing Miami condos remained unsold and eventually were pulled from the market after an average of 111 days, Bisnow previously reported.”
From WFLA. “Florida condo owners are already facing higher fees to keep up with new safety regulations. However, many are starting to question whether Florida’s fragile property insurance market can handle back-to-back hurricane damage. ‘This year, with these two big hurricanes, we’re anticipating a big increase,’ said Pat Hutson, a condo owner in Tampa. ‘I’m very worried that our monthly dues will not cover the new insurance premium.’ ‘Condo fees are going up and insurance is going up,’ Joe Todd said. ‘We did have a huge insurance premium increase. It was like a $300,000 increase that we hadn’t budgeted for.'”
“‘They’re about to get hit with all kinds of financial issues,’ said Eric Glazer, a board-certified attorney. Glazer specializes in condominium and planned development law. ‘Some people are scrambling with special assessments,’ Glazer said. ‘All of this, in addition to the insurance, everything’s coming together exactly at the same time. So, for condominium owners, it’s a perfect storm. For those condos that waived reserves for years, if not decades, and didn’t take good care of their building, they’re in big trouble.'”
The Miami Herald. “A seventh person was arrested and charged with stealing from Hammocks homeowners, billing them $172,000 over five months for work that was never performed, including cleanup after a hurricane during a period when there were no hurricanes or tropical storms, building a haunted house for Halloween, putting up Christmas lights, repairing a roof, painting a pergola and changing a swimming pool filter, according to Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle, who also announced two guilty pleas Thursday in her office’s investigation of fraud by board members of Florida’s largest HOA.”
“Ivan Dario Diez, 58, charged with grand theft, organized scheme to defraud, fabricating evidence and perjury, participated in a plot to divert homeowners’ maintenance fees at the 3,800-acre West Kendall community to fake companies run by the relatives of ex- HOA president Marglli Gallego, ‘who was head of this criminal enterprise,’ Fernandez Rundle said. Gallego and five others, including her husband, a cousin and three board officers, were previously charged in the scheme, which a court-appointed receiver estimates drained $6 million from HOA bank accounts with checks written to sham vendors — as well as through wasteful spending and mismanagement.”
“Homeowners rebelled after years of what they called totalitarian rule and tried to oust a board of directors that quadrupled monthly fees, neglected maintenance, harassed residents with foreclosure warnings and code violation fines, held secret meetings and conducted rigged elections. Fernandez Rundle said since they arrested Hammocks board members, her office has received 400-500 complaints from homeowners across the state who believe they are being deceived by their HOAs. Half of Florida’s population lives in a condominium or HOA. ‘They ask, ‘Could you do something for us like you did for the Hammocks?’ Fernandez Rundle said. ’I don’t think our elections are fair. I can’t get records. I think our assessments are fraudulent. Our message is we’re coming to get you so it’s better to cooperate with us.'”
KCRA in California. “South Lake Tahoe residents are set to vote on a controversial measure in the November election. Measure N would create a tax for homes that are unoccupied for more than half of the year. According to the 2022 U.S. census, 44% of homes in South Lake Tahoe sit vacant the majority of the year. Under Measure N, the homeowner would have to pay a $3,000 tax for the first year. The tax would increase to $6,000 or more in the following years. Steve Teshara, co-chair of the group Stop the Tahoe Vacancy Tax said South Lake Tahoe has been a second home community for years and owners shouldn’t be forced to rent their homes. He argues some owners could be inclined to sell their homes due to this tax. ‘The fees pile up,’ said Teshara. ‘A lot of the people here, you know, are people that we know, just regular folks, are not wealthy people.'”
Economic Times on California. “One hundred days after listing their expansive Beverly Hills marital home for sale, Hollywood celebrities Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez have yet to sell it. The couple, who are currently going through a divorce, paid $60.8 million for the house in May 2023, but they are now asking $68 million for it because of renovations. The estimated $283,666 the homeowner would probably spend each month on taxes, security, and homeowners association dues is another important consideration. According to Jason Oppenheim, a well-known real estate broker, Lopez and Affleck are expected to face a financial loss when their $58 million to $60 million mansion sells. The estate’s location makes selling more difficult, as they will have to pay a mansion tax of over $3 million. The tax has devastated luxury sales in Los Angeles, with sales over $5 million down over 60% since it took effect in 2023.”
Los Angeles Times in California. “Poll after poll shows that just about everyone in Los Angeles believes homelessness is one of the biggest problems facing the region. But a key factor determining what Angelenos believe needs to be done about it is whether they’re homeowners, according to a new USC survey. The results reflect homeowners’ and renters’ divergent interests, said Kyla Thomas, a USC sociologist and director of the university’s LABarometer survey. Homeowners, she said, are concerned about property values and are resistant to policies they believe might adversely affect them, while tenants want to see rents decrease and have more affordable housing available.”
“‘There are a lot of homeowners in L.A. who lean left, are sympathetic to the problem of homelessness and are generally supportive of these solutions,’ Thomas said. ‘But on a neighborhood block, they’re incentivized quite differently.'”
From CTV News. “The Canadian government’s plan to reduce the number of immigrants entering the country could impact B.C.’s housing affordability. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Thursday that the federal government is cutting its immigration target to below 400,000 for the next three years. According to Tom Davidoff, a housing expert and UBC associate professor at the Sauder School of Business, the provincial housing supply has been unable to match population growth. ‘The reason we’ve seen prices rising in the last decade is not only a very rapid increase in immigration, but also housing supply failing to keep up,’ said Davidoff.”
“The province says a record 137,393 non-permanent residents arrived in B.C. over the previous year, increasing the total number of non-permanent residents currently living in the province to 501,050. Trudeau explained that the level of immigration was in response to the challenges the pandemic posed, allowing for labour needs to be addressed and maintaining population growth. ‘We didn’t get the balance quite right,’ said Trudeau. Consultant and owner Chris Brown believes the new targets will create a more competitive environment. ‘The majority are going to Vancouver, and that poses a problem because we don’t have enough jobs to support all of these people,’ said Brown.”
The Canadian Dimension. “Despite recent tremors in some corners of the housing market, prices remain far too high for both renters and buyers. This persistent lack of affordability is pushing families into precarity and homelessness, and it could cost the Liberals the next election. None of this is news, of course. Housing prices and rents have been outpacing inflation and squeezing Canadian households for decades. This protracted disaster begs the question, why is nothing being done?”
“The answer goes beyond simple neglect. Ottawa has been actively trying to solve this problem. Their solutions are just making things worse. In 2017, the Trudeau government launched the National Housing Strategy (NHS), a massive 10-year, $72 billion program to restore housing affordability and eliminate homelessness by the end of the decade. By 2023, funding for the program ballooned to $89 billion, and even more money was earmarked in Budget 2024. The official NHS website describes these commitments as ‘a 10+ year, $115+ billion plan.'”
“We are now seven years and tens of billions of dollars into that plan and things are worse than ever. Affordable housing is harder to come by than it was a decade ago, and homelessness is reaching historic highs. At its core, the NHS treats the housing crisis as a problem chiefly of supply. According to the CMHC’s website, NHS funds are given to homebuilders in the form of low-interest loans, forgivable loans, and direct contributions. There is no disclosure about how low the interest rates attached to these loans are, and access to information requests related to forgiven and forgivable loans were denied by the CMHC ‘due to their sensitive nature.’ At this point, it is impossible to say how much money has simply been transferred directly to developers under the program.”
“The NHS has proved itself incapable of solving or even softening this crisis. Funneling money from government coffers to developers and billion-dollar trusts empowers rentiers to seize a greater share of the market and expand the housing bubble. By providing loans to the private sector to build and own housing, the government is heating up investor demand and pushing prices up even further. This price-lending spiral is actively encouraging the formation of local housing oligopolies. The NHS is effectively ushering in an era of neoliberal feudalism under a new class of finance aristocrats. This messy, opaque, counter-productive strategy must be brought to an end as soon as possible.”
From Agence France-Presse. “After over a decade of snapping up Bordeaux wine estates, buying into a dream of elegant living in France and good earnings in their home market, many Chinese investors are now selling up. Capital controls back home, softening Asian demand for wine and the underestimated costs of running French estates have combined to push the once-enthusiastic buyers from China towards the exit. Many other chateaux are up for sale for peanuts, explained Li Lijuan, an estate agent and Asian market specialist at Vineyards-Bordeaux. She said Beijing’s decision to impose strict controls on capital had dealt a blow to a market already undermined by an overproduction of Bordeaux wine. ‘Chinese people can’t invest abroad any more because their money is stuck in China,’ said Li. About 50 Bordeaux chateaux are currently up for sale, she said.”
“Other disappointed owners are waiting for the market to pick up so they can offload their investments. Buyers are so scarce that some chateaux are selling for less than half their purchase price. False expectations have also scuppered the Chinese dream. ‘Some investors bought into the French art of living,’ said Li. ‘They bought a beautiful building, way cheaper than a flat in Hong Kong or Shanghai. But they didn’t think about the financial stability of the estates or investments for the future.'”
“Some Chinese investors, more used to family-run vineyards back home, ‘underestimated the costs’ of running a big French estate and ‘overestimated the possibilities’ of selling expensive-to-produce wines in China’s already crowded domestic market. ‘Their economic model was to buy bottom-of-the-range estates, hoping for an immediate return by producing wine at less than five euros and selling via their own distribution networks for 20, 40 or even 100 euros a throw,’ surmised Benoit Lechenault, head of BNP Paribas subsidiary Agrifrance.”
“While that tactic may have worked for some in the past, it is no longer the case. Since Covid, China’s domestic wine consumption has nosedived, falling by a quarter in 2023 alone, according to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine. One technical manager, who preferred not to give his name, told AFP that he had only met his former boss ‘once in the space of four years’ and had been bombarded with ‘impossible demands’ that ‘didn’t take into account the lifecycle of the vine.'”
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‘They create a systemically risky concentration of national mortgage credit exposure in Washington DC. They are and always have been politicized. They are popular with many politicians because they can be used to create subsidies to favored political constituencies without Congress having to appropriate funds. They are highly popular with Wall Street firms because they create securities easy to sell to domestic and global investors by using the credit of the U.S. Treasury. Fannie/Freddie were central to causing the U.S. housing bubble of 1999-2006 and its subsequent collapse, and supported the explosive house price inflation of 2019-2022, which has made U.S. house prices widely unaffordable’
I’ve seen other posters say ‘if there’s one thing I hope President Trump will do it’s X.’ For me that would be getting these two criminal organizations off the guberment back. They are leeches that the swamp uses to screw everybody and it’s been going on for decades. IMO it would be a huge relief for the whole country.
‘‘They’re about to get hit with all kinds of financial issues,’ said Eric Glazer, a board-certified attorney. Glazer specializes in condominium and planned development law. ‘Some people are scrambling with special assessments,’ Glazer said. ‘All of this, in addition to the insurance, everything’s coming together exactly at the same time. So, for condominium owners, it’s a perfect storm. For those condos that waived reserves for years, if not decades, and didn’t take good care of their building, they’re in big trouble’
This is a good example: do Fannie or Freddie take into account poorly funded airbox complexes before they guberment back a loan? Not that I’ve ever heard. What they will do is blacklist a building after some problem making it hard to sell and harming their own existing loans. In the 2000’s they just popped up with a new rule: no more loans for complexes with more than 40% investors (non-occupiers). Those units tanked immediately, occupied or not.
If Trump ever brought up this proposal in his first term, I missed it.
My bad…but the outcome resembled that of Biden’s student loan debt forgiveness plan.
Marketplace
Trump administration ends push to restructure Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Amy Scott
Jan 15, 2021
Heard on:
The headquarters of Fannie Mae in Washington, D.C. Fannie and Freddie Mac will remain under government conservatorship.
Win McNamee/Getty Images
One of the priorities of the Donald Trump administration was to finally return Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to private hands. The two companies, which back roughly half of all mortgages in this country, have been under government conservatorship since they nearly collapsed in the financial crisis of 2008.
Now, it seems that effort has been all but abandoned. In a statement late Thursday, federal regulators said they would leave the companies’ current shareholder structure pretty much intact.
…
https://www.marketplace.org/2021/01/15/trump-administration-ends-push-to-restructure-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac/
I don’t how you would offload 12 trillion in liability? And if you could, that entity would get bailed out by the government as too big to fail like airlines and auto mfg ‘s.
From the Canadian Dimension article:
The largest completed NHS project is a $109 million loan to Concert Properties to construct and own 55One, a 308-unit apartment complex (148 of which are said to be affordable) in Coquitlam. In an email exchange with Concert Properties, a representative shared that the rent range for a one-bedroom unit is $2,450-$2,600 per month, excluding utilities—the median rent in that Vancouver suburb. They also disclosed that the affordable units are a blend of lower-end market rent (which, in this context, would be over $2,000 a month for a one-bedroom) and some other heavily discounted units. After making specific inquiries to Share Family and Community Services, the not-for-profit responsible for the affordable units, the exact number of apartments available at these reduced rates and what exactly they charge remains unclear.
What is clear is that Concert Properties is a massive, financialized corporation. According to its own literature, Concert has over $9 billion in assets, including $3.3 billion in infrastructure. It describes itself as a company owned by “pension plans and institutional investors.”
The administrators of the NHS apparently see no conflict between their stated goal of restoring affordability and giving a discounted, nine-figure loan to a multi-billion-dollar investment fund so they can charge $2,500 a month for a one-bedroom apartment.
Realtors are liars.
Realtors are liars.
The speculator who purchased this roach motel for $65K in 2022 probably thought they were getting a steal of a deal. In my opinion, its not worth a dollar plus closing costs. Its just another 100 year old tiny shotgun house located in the hairy armpit of inner-city Pensacola.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1720-N-Davis-Hwy-Pensacola-FL-32503/44718750_zpid/
Oh, that’s what we call a “Shotgun” house ” ,here in the South , one could fire a Shotgun through it and hit every room as it passes through…Looks more like a chicken coop ..
A chicken coop would have a roof.
Sovereign credit default swaps are a fraud on investors, since the Wall Street banks that sell them will always find dodges to avoid actually paying out on these wrong-way bets.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sovereign-credit-default-swaps-rise-election-debt-ceiling-jitters-2024-10-24/
‘If you want to be able to strengthen our mortgage financial system so that we make sure that people are in reasonable, responsible loans and that we don’t have to bail out the mortgage finance system again, we need to fix Fannie and Freddie.’”
You can’t “fix” Fannie and Freddie. You can only abolish them and get government out of the housing market.
The globalist scum media and co-opted “experts” know that as millions of Americans become red-pilled, more will start “noticing” the role of corporate landlords with access to unlimited Yellen Bux competing with legitimate buyers in the residential housing market. Expect more “private equity locusts are our friends” MSM propaganda to condition the sheeple to accept our transition into a nation of renters. You will own nothing….
https://yellowhammernews.com/daniel-sutter-is-home-ownership-disappearing/
“…more will start “noticing” the role of corporate landlords with access to unlimited Yellen Bux competing with legitimate buyers in the residential housing market.”
As whoever invented the game of Monopoly well understood, the problem with Monopoly money is that eventually the banker and his friends own everything.
One bright spot this year has been the market for newly built homes, because home builders are offering incentives that lower buyers’ mortgage rates.
Lowering mortgage rates on shacks that are at least 50% overvalued – I see what you did there, builders.
Rate buy-downs are so yesteryear. Builders are now slashing prices in my hood. But they are being tricky about it.. Their list prices on MLS are still up, but if you watch the closings you’ll see 50k to 100k price cuts at close. I’m sure part of the reason they’re doing this is to avoid the ire of all the previous suckers who bought into prior phases. Watch the close price. I’m sure they’re doing the same thing in your hood.
The greedheads of Colorado Springs and the Front Range in general are clinging tenaciously to their June 2022 delusional wish prices, even as inventory has now crept up past 4,200 and days on market is stretching into the triple digits for a growing number of shacks. About 26% of shacks are now “price discounted,” mostly for piddly amounts, almost exclusively from builders who can’t unload newbuild houses and duplexes in soulless new developments. I would not touch any shack thrown up during the scamdemic and its aftermath for any price.
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Colorado-Springs_CO/show-price-reduced/sby-6
[This just in: Kamala Harris is interviewed for three hours by Joe Rogan.]
[Oh, wait! That wasn’t Kamala Harris; it was that Donald Trump guy. Kamala was offered the interview but turned it down.]
[Here, see for yourself …]
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/harris-spokesman-confirms-kamala-said-no-joe-rogan-podcast
[But that Donald guy said “yes” to the interview, and you can see it here …]
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-trump-and-rogan-have-wild-interview
[The Joe Rogan Experience averages over 11 million listeners per episode and Kamala Harris said “no” to that; There is a message here somewhere.]
“[The Joe Rogan Experience averages over 11 million listeners per episode and Kamala Harris said “no” to that; There is a message here somewhere.]”
I think I can discern the message:
Joe Rogan will vote for Trump.
Joe Rogan is more of a “journalist” than any of the globalist sc*m media.
There is a message here somewhere
That Harris won’t interview without using a teleprompter.
I remember when Palin was interviewed. She came across as a light weight back then. Compared to Harris she was a seasoned statesman.
Did the Democrat-Bolsheviks drop the mask a little too quickly?
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2024/10/26/van-jones-progressives-pushed-people-like-musk-out-of-party-by-saying-all-white-people-are-racist-all-men-are-toxic/
Long-term bond yields rose all year in 1987 as a prelude to the October 19 Black Monday stock market crash.
But this time is different, and rising long-term yields are a good sign for the stock market…or so a real financial journalist informed me.
Yahoo Finance
Treasury yields are picking up. Is this a shock for equities?
Yahoo Finance
Fri, October 25, 2024 at 2:32 p.m. PDT
Bond yields (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) have been steadily climbing, but is it really that much of a shocker that the 10-year Treasury yield has risen back above 4.2%
Yahoo Finance senior markets reporter Josh Schafer contrasts the 10-year note’s trajectory with that of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index, referenced by Ritholtz Wealth Management strategist Callie Cox.
Horizon Investments head of portfolio strategy Zachary Hill explained to Yahoo Finance earlier today why rising Treasury yields is actually a good thing for equity markets.
…
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/treasury-yields-picking-shock-equities-213254978.html
Finance·markets
Top strategist sees ‘echoes of the 1987 crash’ in today’s stock market. ‘All you can do is brace yourself and hope for the best’
BY Will Daniel
October 4, 2023 at 2:01 PM PDT
The New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 19, 1987, as stocks are devastated during one of the most frantic days in the exchange’s history.
Maria Bastone—AFP/Getty Images
On Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 22.6% in what would later become known as Black Monday. The causes of the crash are still debated to this day, but the severity of its impact is not. Stock market losses in October hit $1.7 trillion globally as 19 out of the 23 major markets experienced drops of over 20% for the month.
Now, Albert Edwards, a global strategist at French investment bank Société Générale, is worried history may repeat itself. The stock market’s strength in 2023 despite the economy-slowing effects of higher interest rates is a combination that feels awfully similar to the days when Ronald Reagan was president, the typically bearish and often sardonic strategist warns.
…
https://fortune.com/2023/10/04/top-strategist-1987-crash-black-monday-repeat-potential-societe-generale-albert-edwards/
Fidelity SPAXX show me the money.
Is a rain-wrapped tornado heading towards the U.S. economy this election season?
Commodities Corner
Investing legend Jim Rogers expects an ‘extremely bad’ recession. Why he’s buying silver instead of gold.
If the economy turns sour, Rogers believes gold and silver will do well, along with commodities in general
By Myra P. Saefong
Published: Oct. 24, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. ET
Jim Rogers, investor, author and chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. Photo: Courtesy photo
The U.S. economy is getting closer to suffering an “extremely bad” recession — one that’ll lead investors to seek out precious metals, Jim Rogers told MarketWatch during a Zoom interview this week. But the veteran investor said he’s more likely to buy silver than gold as a way to “hide” from the economic turmoil.
History would indicate we’re getting closer to a recession, “but I don’t know when,” said Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., who co-founded the legendary Quantum Fund with billionaire George Soros in the 1970s. “I do know there’s going to be a recession again, and I do know it’s going to be extremely bad.”
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investing-legend-jim-rogers-expects-an-extremely-bad-recession-why-hes-buying-silver-instead-of-gold-925428db
Rain-Wrapped TORNADO Nearly HITS Storm Chasers – Manilla, IA (4/26/24)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ygmZ5LoGjVQ
Risk asset gamblers resemble these storm chasers. It’s all fun and games until you realize that you’re inside the tornado.
The Election is more and more looking like “A walk in the park”, for The Donald …..Hope he has a plan in mind for the Country ,and not just Fighting it out with the Libs, those still here by then, and not in Canada..
“Hope he has a plan in mind for the Country …”
I just read he may privatize Fannie and Freddie as a step to restoring affordable housing, a long-stated but ever-elusive U.S. policy goal. If housing prices were substantially lower by the time he he leaves office, that would be a historic contribution for which all Americans could be grateful.
He’ll have his hands full with the middle-east. The Gaza Strip was a political mistake, and it needs to be annexed by Israel. The roughly 2M Palestinians need to be scattered and resettled across the middle-east in countries that do not border Israel.
At home for starters, Fannie and Freddie need to be privatized, the fed needs to be prevented from buying MBS and the Treasury needs to be prevented from backing MBS with taxpayer guarantees. Recessions are something of a “colon cleanse” to rid the economy of the corrupt and greedy players.
In just two years, the value of the average condo 30 years and older has fallen more than $100K, from $325K in 2022 to $218K at the end of September, according to ISG.
Is that a lot?
From the lead-off piece re Fannie and Freddie: “If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, Republicans hope he will fulfill a longstanding GOP goal of privatizing the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have been under government control since the Great Recession.”
Financial independence means house prices will have to fall across the board. If repayment risk is to be up to the marketplace then expect higher mortgage rates too. The non-credit worthy will be renters, again.
Between September 2023 and February 2024, more than 72% of existing Miami condos remained unsold and eventually were pulled from the market after an average of 111 days, Bisnow previously reported.”
Must.not.laugh.
Another “Oh dear!” moment in time.
Bank’s multifamily delinquencies skyrocket 990%
https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2024/10/25/new-york-community-bank-multifamily-delinquencies-up-990/
A reader sent these in:
I work in housing, credit and mortgage analytics. The company has about 14K employees and contractors globally. We are seeing about 50 terminations per day.
https://x.com/PaulNic76089645/status/1849799886214135910
Mortgage rates back over 7% 🤦♂️
RIP Realtors
https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/1849640453043347965
MAJOR US BANK HAS DISCREETLY SHUTTERED 132 BRANCHES THIS YEAR – MORE THAN ANY OTHER (MSN)
Bank of America has closed more branches than any other major bank in the first nine months of 2024.
The banking giant shuttered 132 branches between January and September, an analysis of official closure data shows.
https://x.com/Fxhedgers/status/1849562406223003817
Birth rates are plummeting,
The UN and other forecasters keep missing the mark
Fertility in Latin America has dropped off a cliff.
https://x.com/_alice_evans/status/1849668492951220483
Realtor input: I think the crash is actually here, not gonna lie, I have nerves about it. I’ve sold through the GCF, but I didn’t have kids then…
Everyone is on the chopping block right now. I could get wiped completely.
I’ve been doing this for 20 years, and I knew this was coming (so I prepared as best I could) and I know it’s going to be biblical. So I pray.
The whole run up I was looking forward to the crash, but now that it’s here, I have different feelings-we’re all about to get hit; my friends, my family, everyone will have wealth evaporate.
There’s my plan and there’s what’s going to happen; my plan is to work 60+ hours a week identifying and securing qualified listings with the intent of expanding market share while my competitors retreat. What could happen is that I work myself to the bone while experiencing financial ruin. A reality I signed up for, almost thrilling.
https://x.com/aremuhknee/status/1849658906232094863
Recovered addict here. Treatment begins at rock bottom. Often times those rock bottom are found in jails. It sucks, but the alternative is enabling people to death. I know many a men who thank the arresting officer, because that’s what led these good men to change. all the best
https://x.com/aremuhknee/status/1849660651486183664
My health insurance has open enrollment now
My premium increased by 40%
As a healthy, young adult with no preconditions + no major claims last year
Add that to car insurance, rent, groceries, flights, etc. that are all up
How can Americans afford 4 more years of this??
https://x.com/ArynneWexler/status/1848391731294744885
Bankruptcy lawyers and distressed debt funds are swarming, and guess what? They are just warming up.
Spoke with numerous lawyers, debt funds, and special asset officers this week and they can’t keep up with all the work coming in.
https://x.com/BankingNewsGuy/status/1849771941088866375
If you look at the trend between 1980 and 2007 and extrapolate it you see what perhaps should’ve happened.
One has to stand in awe of what has happened instead.
I know we’re all numb to it, but I just thought I point out the collective policy absurdity of it all.
https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1849496896085041310
Mercedes-Benz said it plans to ramp up cost-cutting efforts after its net profit halved in the third quarter amid weak demand.
https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1849921228338782219
Regional banks are the first to let go.
Banking crisis 2.0 soon.
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1849885096880587209
I agree with this broker 100%. This is not what a government is supposed to do. They are enabling debt for life to try and bail out overpriced homes and the real estate market.
https://x.com/Darinb75/status/1849837555262304494
🚀Boeing exploring sale of its space business, WSJ reports
https://x.com/dailyjobcuts/status/1849854136835244388
After millions were foreclosed on during the financial crisis, Obama justified his refusal to hold bankers accountable by saying that “would have required a violence to the social order, a wrenching of political & economic norms”…and now he wonders why people are “bitter.”
https://x.com/davidsirota/status/1849573393152041018
The END of Airbnb? Who Is Going To Risk Paying HST On The Sale Of The Property?
Things have been going very badly for Airbnb for several years but could this be a stake through the heart of the whole thing
Would anyone risk having to pay HST to sell a resale Condo?
Nope
https://x.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1849790045823086716
the 10Y just declared the winner of the election
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1849900683962511811
Five Guys prices are out of control.
Are they pricing themselves out of the market?
https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1849889341449044353
When a $75k personal loan at 12% is a “win”
https://x.com/GayBearRes/status/1849969839231656315
The housing market’s home insurance shock, as told by one interactive map
Of the 15 major U.S. counties with the largest home insurance increases, 9 are in Florida
https://x.com/NewsLambert/status/1849953414467215397
The share of middle-income households with 40% or higher debt-to-income ratios on new mortgages is rising nationwide, per Bloomberg:
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1849837572853317634
🇨🇦 is now acknowledging they used immigrants to overrun real estate supply & it’s impossible to scale up demand like they publicly claimed.
It’s probably time for you to ponder why they lied & where your tax money went.
https://x.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1849875822162886974
One day you’ll realize the division & destabilizing forces you face were intentionally created by elites & their politicians.
If you’re distracted with blaming your equally powerless peers that are also exploited, you’re too busy to realize who’s looting our institutions.
https://x.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1849858908325806454
Bank of Canada Forecasts A Real Estate Frenzy Will Drive GDP
https://x.com/BetterDwelling/status/1849467807500505476
It seems Canada is unwilling to learn a lesson about free borrowing and trying to run an economy on one asset class. This will only hurt us more in the long run.
https://x.com/StreamerDarkly/status/1849513109867913526
Canada’s population grew by more than 1.2 million people in 2023 close to the 1.7 million that went to the U.S. To my American followers, for perspective, that’s equivalent to you adding 11 million people in just one year.
https://x.com/MPelletierCIO/status/1849800837775909031
Trudeau said after the pandemic he “didn’t get the balance quite right” between addressing labour needs and maintaining population growth.
Now we have 2.3 million too many people and are 7 years ahead of schedule.
This wasn’t a miscalculation, this was intentional.
https://x.com/igetredpilled/status/1849956463256461613
Canada is a playground for cartel criminals who launder and hide their cash in our country.
The Government has been negligent on money laundering, often ignoring simple and no cost ideas to curb the activity and put criminals in jail.
https://x.com/adamchamb/status/1849568029539172627
“How can Americans afford 4 more years of this??”
They can’t.
Wait ’til the $2-Trillion budget deficit spending peters-out. 🙂
1)
Mortgage rates back over 7% 🤦♂️
RIP Realtors
\\
– Rates don’t matter as much as price in this cycle.
– Prices are still at <3% mortgage rates for existing houses as existing owners are holding out for long gone pandemic pricing. Driving in the rear-view mirror, just like the Fed. 😂 Some will have to sell due to the 3 D's: death, divorce, de-employment. These are the new comps, as price is set at the margin.
– Builders are incentivizing sales of new builds so new house sales are holding up as effective prices fall. I would hold out for an existing house, since I think the quality of new builds is poor in a bubble.
Your last sentence is spot on. I’m inspecting new builds every day. You won’t believe what they put in these 600K home. Pure crappola! If you buy one of these homes be prepared to replace floors, appliances, fixtures within the first 5 years. You’d be blown away how many inspections I’m doing on homes just a few years old and they’re already replacing A/C condensers, FAUs, water heaters and the like all at today’s ridiculous prices. You see carpet quality you wouldn’t put in a rental. And I’d say at least 90% of homebuyers don’t know how to identify the pig behind the lipstick.
2)
Birth rates are plummeting,
The UN and other forecasters keep missing the mark
Fertility in Latin America has dropped off a cliff.
3)
🇨🇦 is now acknowledging they used immigrants to overrun real estate supply & it’s impossible to scale up demand like they publicly claimed.
It’s probably time for you to ponder why they lied & where your tax money went.
4)
One day you’ll realize the division & destabilizing forces you face were intentionally created by elites & their politicians.
If you’re distracted with blaming your equally powerless peers that are also exploited, you’re too busy to realize who’s looting our institutions.
5)
Canada’s population grew by more than 1.2 million people in 2023 close to the 1.7 million that went to the U.S. To my American followers, for perspective, that’s equivalent to you adding 11 million people in just one year.
\\
(2) – (5) are related and intentional. You can have a dog or a cat, but no children. You will own nothing and eat bugs. You are being replaced by low information, dependent and compliant illegal aliens. This is every sovereign nation state in the West, as per the globalist sc*m plan. So far, few seem to notice.
– Coincidentally, both DE and UK populations increased by 1.2M persons last year as well.
– Living The Hunger Games.
“You are being replaced by low information, dependent and compliant illegal aliens. This is every sovereign nation state in the West, as per the globalist sc*m plan. So far, few seem to notice”
#Notice, did you say?
Notice that it is White, Christian, Europeans and their descendents outside of Europe being replaced.
You may have also #Noticed that there is zero immigration to Israel.
Southern Poverty Law Center and Anti Defamation League, consider yourselves #Noticed.
Ask yourself what it is that these two organizations do?
At some point, we’re gonna need a second Crusades, not to conquer the Middle East, but to expel all non-Christians from Europe and the US, starting in Washington Dee Cee, the greatest nest of Parasite Class vermin to ever exist.
After millions were foreclosed on during the financial crisis, Obama justified his refusal to hold bankers accountable by saying that “would have required a violence to the social order, a wrenching of political & economic norms”…and now he wonders why people are “bitter.”
\\
– During and right after the GFC, TPTB “foamed the runway” for the TBTF banks. Underwater homeowners got FB.
– The banks should have taken their lumps during the GFC.
– They shouldn’t have been bailed out at taxpayer expense.
– Only Iceland got it right. Culpable bankers in Iceland actually went to jail. This was the only country that did this after the GFC.
– Things would be very different today in the U.S. otherwise.
– Obama owns several luxury houses. The middle class got the bill for the GFC and TPTB got more power and control.
– Few seem to understand this, to our nation’s detriment.
\\
https://x.com/leslibless/status/1826099375547781266
🇺🇸ProudArmyBrat @leslibless
The Obama’s have a net worth of $70 million. They own 4 luxurious properties:
– Washington DC home bought for $8.1M
– Martha’s Vineyard home bought for $11.75M
– Beachfront home in Hawaii bought for $8.7M
– Chicago home bought for $1.65M
Getting really tired of multi-millionaires preaching about the evils of money and greed.
[video link here:]
https://x.com/i/status/1826099375547781266
11:29 PM · Aug 20, 2024 · 3.1M Views
Realtor input: I think the crash is actually here, not gonna lie, I have nerves about it. I’ve sold through the GCF, but I didn’t have kids then…
Kids change everything; for starters, no more 7 series!
Half of these places will be out of business if this keeps on. 5 bucks for small fries?
I don’t know if it’s still the same, but I recall that their “small fries” were huge, enough to share 1 or even 2 people.
That said, 5 Guys and other high end burger joints have become luxuries.
“Half of these places will be out of business if this keeps on.”
You know it’s bad when Warren Buffett is quoting G.W. Bush, “If money isn’t loosened up, this sucker could go down.”
“Five Guys prices are out of control.”
Lots of great comments in this thread!
Canada’s population grew by more than 1.2 million people in 2023 close to the 1.7 million that went to the U.S. To my American followers, for perspective, that’s equivalent to you adding 11 million people in just one year.
Meanwhile Trudeau admits that mistakes were made …
The only mistake was that they didn’t bring in even more invaders to keep them in
officepowerTrudeau admits that mistakes were made
He’s a liar. It wasn’t a mistake in the least.
Agreed, this was coldly planned. And only a fraction of the tsunamic of immigrants were skilled.
Half a million California homeowners to see second insurance rate hike in a year
Earlier this month, the Interinsurance Exchange of the Automobile Club — the insurance affiliate for AAA in Southern California, also known as the Auto Club of Southern California — was approved to raise rates by an average of 6.2% for homeowners and 11.6% for condominium owners, according to filings with the California Department of Insurance.
The more than 489,000 homeowners and 60,000 condo owners set to be affected by the increase will see the difference on their bill at their first renewal date in 2025, according to filings.
In March, the Auto Club raised rates by an average of 16.2% for homeowners and 55% for condo owners, along with a 44.9% increase for home renters.
CSAA, AAA’s Northern California affiliate insurer, raised rates by an average of 6.9% earlier this year but does not have any pending rate increase requests, according to state records.
Both the Auto Club and CSAA are among California’s top 10 home insurers, representing 5.45% and 6.77% of the total market in 2023, respectively.
When the new rate increase takes effect next year, some home and condo owners may only see an increase of 1.3%, while others may see their rates rise up to 15%. A spokesperson for the Auto Club did not immediately respond to request for comment.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/half-a-million-california-homeowners-to-see-insurance-rates-rise-for-the-second-time-in-a-year/ar-AA1sWhh3
My Bay Aryan colleagues all tell me their homeowner’s premiums are now at nigthmarish levels. And these are people with base salaries in the 200K+ range.
Those ARMs don’t look so great these days.
A dozen years after first reports, San Diego may adopt recommendations to prevent disastrous real estate deals
One of the key failures that led San Diego to spend more than $200 million and counting on the still-uninhabitable 101 Ash St. office tower was the city’s reliance on an appraisal paid for by the company marketing the property.
Former Mayor Kevin Faulconer and the San Diego City Council never verified the $67 million valuation that had been prepared on behalf of Cisterra Development before they leased the high-rise eight years ago and then bought out the lease in 2022.
Now San Diego officials are considering new policies that would require the city to obtain its own appraisal before moving forward with any major real estate transaction.
The idea is one of nearly two dozen formal recommendations that have yet to be implemented, even though they were raised in four separate reports issued by the San Diego city auditor that date back to 2012.
Earlier this month, the council’s Land Use and Housing Committee unanimously recommended that council members adopt 23 policy changes that would help prevent future real estate failures like the 101 Ash St. transaction.
Also, in another nod to what went wrong in the Ash Street deal, any contractors or advisers who provide “significant” input on real estate deals would be required to file economic disclosures.
Jason Hughes, who advised Faulconer on both the 101 Ash St. lease and another deal for the nearby Civic Center Plaza, pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor conflict of interest charge last year after he collected $9.4 million in fees. Hughes had to return the $9.4 million to the city, pay a $400 fine and serve one year of summary probation.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/a-dozen-years-after-first-reports-san-diego-may-adopt-recommendations-to-prevent-disastrous-real-estate-deals/ar-AA1sUL3j
“Now San Diego officials are considering new policies that would require the city to obtain its own appraisal before moving forward with any major real estate transaction.”
Difficult to believe this is really happening.
Piedmont Office Realty Sells Irving Tower At 53% Discount To Former Purchase Price
Nearly eight years after purchasing the Irving office building once known as CVS Health Tower and making nearly $800K worth of interior renovations, Piedmont Office Realty Trust has sold the property for less than half of its purchase price to a well-known buyer of troubled offices.
Piedmont acquired the 12-story, nearly 315K SF office building at 750 W. John Carpenter Freeway in 2016 from Columbia Property Trust for $49.6M, according to Commercial Property Executive. Over its eight years of ownership, the company made extensive upgrades, including $150K in renovations to the building’s lobby in 2017 and a $617K interior remodel and office space expansion in late 2022, according to permits filed with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation.
But despite the hefty investment, the property sold for $23M earlier this year, according to Piedmont’s third-quarter investor results report issued this week
https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/news/office/piedmont-office-realty-sells-irving-tower-for-53-discount-from-purchase-price-126502
Blackstone Acquires L’Enfant Plaza Buildings At Foreclosure Auction
Several L’Enfant Plaza mixed-use properties totaling more than 887K SF were purchased by their lender at a foreclosure auction this week.
New York-based Blackstone Mortgage Trust acquired the properties for $83.7M, the Washington Business Journal reported. The price was less than a quarter of their last appraisal value of $365.6M.
JBG Smith was the prior owner of the properties at 437, 470, 490 and 955 L’Enfant Plaza SW.
The sale took place at Alex Cooper Auctioneers Wednesday. There were no other bidders. The portfolio also includes a large retail component and food court, according to the WBJ. Several garages and the air rights were also included.
https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/news/deal-sheet/this-weeks-dc-deal-sheet-126493
It’s great to have some printing press money in your back pocket when the foreclosure fire sales come around.
The usual suspects will be in the front of the line for these properties, and the fed.gov will hand them over with little to no money down at near zero rates. It’s a big club, and…
New owners discuss plans for Downtown Sacramento skyscraper that sold for $21million
Downtown Sacramento’s high-rise Renaissance Tower sold to Ethan Conrad Properties for more than $21 million after going to auction earlier this week.
The 28-story office building is on K and 8th streets, blocks from the Golden 1 Center. The new owners say they plan on getting new tenants into the building by slashing rent prices.
The property currently has an occupancy rate of 27%— a significant decline since pre-pandemic numbers when the building previously sold in 2016 for $80 million.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/new-owners-discuss-plans-for-downtown-sacramento-skyscraper-that-sold-for-21million/ar-AA1sTEiZ
Gary Kerr joined Greystar in 2019 as managing director of development in the Northeast. In those six years, Kerr has helped transform Everett, a city just five miles outside of Boston, from a historic industrial city into a blossoming mixed-use community.
Greystar has built more than 1,900 units in Everett, and it just broke ground on another 416-unit building in the city this summer even as high interest rates and construction costs have slowed development across the country.
Bisnow: As a developer, what have the last two years been like with high interest rates and construction costs making projects harder to start? How have you navigated these challenges?
Kerr: People think about high-interest costs in terms of the cost of debt being higher. I think it’s much more impactful than that. Higher interest rates make the value of real estate lower, making the underlying cash flows that come from that asset class worth less. You have a point in time when buildings were costing more to build, and they were worth less once they were built. There’s a double negative that really slows everything down pretty negatively.
You’ve ended up in that situation now where things are, again, they’re worthless once they’re built. We’ve been looking at opportunities that are either heavily de-risked, in terms of permitting, where we have a lot more transparency on when we buy the site today when we can start construction and to completion. That idea of, “Okay, we can have a better sense of where value is.” Looking at things on a short horizon, or just making more defined conscious bets on what we see as best-in-class real estate. This is where we can say, “This is the best real estate site in this market where we’ve got high conviction, and we’re prepared to go do this deal because of our conviction.” It’s really those two things: real estate that we have high conviction in or things that we can see with a short-term view. We can value it in today’s context, in today’s market.
https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/multifamily/weekend-interview-greystars-gary-kerr-on-the-future-of-transit-orient-multifamily-development-126487
Inflation-shocked low- and middle-income Americans may not spend normally for years
Putting “fun” back into low- and middle-income Americans’ budgets could be years away with most of their income barely covering the surge in costs for bare necessities, economists said.
Even with annual inflation last month cooling to the lowest level since February 2021 and wages rising faster than inflation, low- and middle-income Americans are just barely covering their essentials, which include groceries, shelter, utilities and gasoline, economists say.
That’s because when inflation slows, it only means prices aren’t rising as quickly, not that prices are declining. So, Americans continue to pay higher prices for everyday needs.
“For a very large share of Americans, the bottom 60% are spending more on essentials than before the pandemic,” said Michael Pearce, Oxford Economics deputy chief U.S. economist. “The burden is hardest among the lowest income but also touches middle income. Spending patterns of low-income Americans will take years to recover.”
HBI in August was 102.2%, up from a low of 86.7% in June 2022 when inflation peaked at a 40-year high of 9.1%, and at the highest level since February 2021. Households are neither better nor worse off than they were in January 2019 when HBI was 100%, so the August reading means middle-income Americans were doing slightly better than they were in 2019 and much better off than when they were underwater in 2022.
However, “had the inflation wave not happened, the HBI would be about 112.5%,” said Amy Crews Cutts, economic consultant to Primerica. “This difference explains a lot about low consumer sentiment that even though conditions have improved, households have made almost no financial progress in 5.5 years of hard work.”
Money for essentials must come from somewhere, so people end up “cutting out fun, not saving or spending some of their savings,” said Cutts. “Inflation blew up their budgets. I’m saddened because this is a boom economy, and we want to see people’s economic life quality rising because people have jobs, raises, and companies are doing well. What we’re seeing is a lot of weakness. It shows how powerful inflation is.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/inflation-shocked-low-and-middle-income-americans-may-not-spend-normally-for-years/ar-AA1sW4rk
Due to the combination of working a lot more than previously to cover 50 percent higher rents than a few years ago plus higher food prices, we have abandoned out pre-pandemic habit of regularly dining out.
I’m sure our situation is somewhat unique, as gig musicians can adjust their work hours on the margin. However, those who can’t increase their work hours and who face rising housing and food costs also are most likely eating out less than they did a few years back.
“Putting “fun” back into low- and middle-income Americans’ budgets could be years away with most of their income barely covering the surge in costs for bare necessities, economists said.”
We’re supporting two hot wars and a third is warming up. When the dust has settled there will be reconstruction costs. Those kid’s birthdays at Chuck-E-Cheese might be relegated to the dustbin of history.
Gotta have kids to have kids birthday parties.
The birthrate across the globe is pretty much already below replacement levels. And I think it’s going to fall even more.
Michel Maisonneuve: Martin Luther King Jr.’s dream sacrificed on the altar of DEI
Diversity, equity, and inclusion is a successor to affirmative action, first put into practice in the United States by an executive order issued by President John F. Kennedy in 1961. The order included a provision that government contractors “take affirmative action to ensure that applicants are employed, and employees are treated (fairly) during employment, without regard to their race, creed, colour or national origin.” This was a good idea and necessary at the time of the burgeoning American civil rights movement aimed at righting the wrongs perpetrated on Black Americans since the end of slavery. Diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is different. It is a rampant and dangerous ideology having negative effects on every facet of society.
For most of its existence, affirmative action kept true to the tenet that it was not designed to replace merit or induce hiring quotas, but that has changed in the DEI era. The extremes to which DEI has taken over the public consciousness have rendered meritocracy obsolete and incited a new form of discrimination. Quotas loom large in hiring practices and some institutions (notably universities) place DEI principles over all other qualifications in job applicants. That these hiring practices have led to a decline in qualitative output has become obvious. The emerging data is hard to ignore. At the time of writing, there appears to be the beginnings of a backlash brewing and time will tell if common sense prevails.
A seemingly well-intentioned concept transformed into a blatant, racist, unforgiving and tunnel-visioned ideal, DEI has become ingrained among social justice zealots and other members of our self-congratulating society.
When the prime minister introduced his cabinet in 2015, he was asked why 50 per cent were women. The self-proclaimed feminist replied, “because it’s 2015!” Canadian media loved it, as did Liberal partisans. But what could be more anti-feminist than that response? Instead of saying, “I looked at all the MPs in my caucus and I chose the best and brightest and most talented to form my cabinet, and no one should be surprised that 50 per cent of them are women,” he threw out a flippant sound bite that immediately planted seeds of doubt among all Canadians, and undoubtedly his caucus, that perhaps the best were not selected — that perhaps 50 per cent got the job simply because they were women, filling a personal quota he intended to meet regardless of suitability.
If meritocracy has no place in the selection of the cabinet, what are the consequences? Imagine the women chosen and how they might question their appointment: “Did I get the job because I am the best suited, or did I get it because I am a woman?”
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/michel-maisonneuve-martin-luther-king-jrs-dream-sacrificed-on-the-altar-of-dei/ar-AA1sUhZB
“Did I get the job because I am the best suited, or did I get it because I am a woman?”
You already know the answer, cupcake.
He had a dream, and the DEI extremists turned it into a nightmare.
Late comment re oxide/NJGeezer discussion about trailer parks on the 21st.
Mobile Homes: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
LastWeekTonight | April 7, 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCC8fPQOaxU
Howdy LV, formerly of NY. I had a similar trajectory. Appreciate you posting this YT clip. I had never seen this, and it certainly added more detail to my prior knowledge. Thx for the edification.
–Geezer
Is Israel carrying out de facto ethnic cleansing?
Just a couple miles from Gaza, top Israeli politicians gathered earlier this week and declaimed their grand visions for its future. “If we want it, we can renew settlements in Gaza,” said far-right national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir, telling a gathering of a major settler organization that he would encourage the “voluntary transfer” of Palestinians living in war-stricken Gaza out of the territory and the return of Jewish settlers, including those who were forced out of Gaza by their own government in 2005.
“What we have learned this year is that everything is in our hands,” Ben Gvir said, before identifying what he considered the major legacy of militant group Hamas’s terrorist strike on southern Israel more than a year ago. “We are the owners of this land. Yes, we experienced a terrible catastrophe on October 7. But what we need to understand, one year later, is that so many Israelis have changed their thinking. They have changed their mindset. They understand that when Israel acts like the rightful owners of this land, this is what brings results.”
The mindset that he was extolling was a certain streak of ruthlessness in cracking down on its enemies, from Palestinian group Hamas to Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Israel was doing “whatever we want,” as Ben Gvir put it, in its ongoing military operations. It underscores the conviction of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who still speaks of achieving a “total victory” against Israel’s foes even when myriad Western leaders want him to agree to deals ceasing hostilities over both Gaza and Lebanon.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/is-israel-carrying-out-de-facto-ethnic-cleansing/ar-AA1sTcti
The Palestinians still alive have been shell-shocked and starved, and will likely be the next crop of terrorists. It’s better and safer to relocate and scatter them around the middle-east in countries that do not border Israel. The U.S. cannot continue funding these religious fueled wars in perpetuity.
‘Sinn Fein can’t take a joke – they’re a laughing stock over Patrick Kielty RTE Late Late Show strop’
Memo to Sinn Féin HQ: get a sense of humour. Their behaviour this week has been a playbook in how to lose voters and alienate people. Don’t be surprised if their popularity dips again in the polls after the song and dance they made over a bit of teasing on the Late Late Show.
Host Patrick Kielty opened with a joke about the Irish version of TV show Traitors, saying: “Deception, betrayal, everyone keeps changing their stories – Sinn Féin Traitors, the version we all want to see.” It came after a run of scandals and rows within the party and was clearly just a bit of craic, with no agenda. But for some ill-advised reason, Sinn Féin decided to pick this battle.
It held the joke up as being dangerous and feeding into “far-right tropes” because they’ve been labelled “traitors” at immigration protests and at doors. Few outside the political and media bubble would be aware of this, except they highlighted it.
The party of rebels are going on like prigs, overly-serious and defensive, primed for offence and playing the victim. It’s a sad day for Ireland when the Shinners are now the champions of censorship, calling for jokes to be wiped off the record and public apologies for even making them.
Did no-one in the strategy department suggest this might not be a good look for the party silenced by RTE over three decades, under the draconian Section 31?
I didn’t hear Gerry Adams’ real voice on the telly until I was a teenager because he was banned from the airwaves.
Back then, Sinn Féin were the ones to stand for civil liberties like freedom of expression and speech. Now you have Sinn Féin’s Mairead Farrell calling for the joke to be removed from the player and for a live public apology from Kielty on the Late Late Show, like a spectacle from the struggle sessions of Communist China.
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/other/sinn-fein-can-t-take-a-joke-they-re-a-laughing-stock-over-patrick-kielty-rte-late-late-show-strop/ar-AA1sXCu3
With immigration cuts, Ottawa is rethinking its economic principles
For many years, the federal Liberal Party made strong immigration a central plank of its economic plan for Canada, inviting scores of skilled workers to the country to slow demographic aging. In a policy U-turn, the government’s pro-growth ethos is now on pause.
Ottawa announced at a news conference Thursday that it’s cutting back immigration levels over the next three years, breaking a trend of steady increases. Combined with efforts to reduce temporary resident numbers, Canada’s population is set to post small declines in 2025 and 2026.
It amounts to a dramatic reversal. The country’s population grew by 3.2 per cent last year – the quickest pace since the late 1950s – or nearly 1.3 million people. Canada has ranked among the fastest-growing countries in recent years, easily outpacing its Group of Seven peers.
But as the numbers ramped up, more Canadians started to question the strategy, tying it to unaffordable housing, inaccessible health care and other concerns. The federal government, which wore its expansionary policies as a badge of honour, now acknowledges that things went awry.
“Over the last year, we’ve seen significant concerns from Canadians about the pace of [the] immigration increase, including the volume. And that’s a fair criticism,” Immigration Minister Marc Miller told The Globe and Mail’s Decibel podcast in an episode being published Monday. “I think it’s one that we absolutely have to own.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-with-immigration-cuts-ottawa-is-rethinking-its-economic-principles/
Longtime Liberal MP Wayne Long says Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should give more weight to the views of his backbenchers in determining his future leading the Party, rather than relying on those in his immediate orbit.
“Seriously, get away from your inner circle,” Long told CTV’s Question Period host Vassy Kapelos, in an interview airing Sunday. “I don’t want to name names, but get away from people, because obviously, prime ministers are somewhat insulated.”
Long said he’s “shocked” the prime minister took just 18 hours(opens in a new tab) to reflect on his future at the helm of the party, after sources told CTV News he promised caucus Wednesday he’d take time to consider their calls for him to step down.
Those sources also told CTV News at least two dozen MPs told Trudeau they’d like him to step aside during the meeting, over the course of the first ninety minutes.
But in a press conference fewer than 18 hours later, Trudeau was adamant he’s running again, a statement which caught some in his caucus, including Long, by surprise.
“I think we had hoped for serious reflection,” he told Kapelos. “Reflection in 18 hours tells me the Prime Minister, with respect, already had his mind made up.”
Long described the meeting as “intense, direct, blunt,” and said the number of MPs who want Trudeau to call it quits is likely “double” what is being reported.
“I’m a three-term MP,” Long said. “I’ve got some seasoning, some battle scars. For me to stand direct against the prime minister at caucus and say that ‘you need to step down’, it’s one thing. But give some credit to the other people that did stand up, 24 on the list, but you know, young MPs, new MPs, a wide array of MPs that stood up, that took a lot of courage. A lot of courage.”
The New Brunswick MP said while it was promised at every national caucus retreat since 2022 that Liberal fortunes would turn around, it’s still “like people are oblivious to what’s going on around us.”
The Liberals have trailed behind the Conservatives in the polls for more than a year, oftentimes by as much as 20 points.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/get-away-from-your-inner-circle-liberal-mp-shocked-pm-didn-t-take-more-time-to-reflect-on-calls-to-resign-1.7087745
Progressives warn Harris must change her closing message as the election looms
Progressive Democrats warn Kamala Harris risks losing the support of a small but significant portion of her political base unless she changes her campaign’s closing message — and its messengers — immediately.
Specifically, several progressive leaders believe that the Democratic nominee has been too focused on winning over moderate Republicans in recent days at the expense of her own party’s passionate liberals. And they say that Harris’ closing message, which is increasingly centered on Republican Donald Trump and the threat he poses to U.S. democracy, ignores the economic struggles of the nation’s working class.
Some far-left leaders are also irked that Harris has shared the stage in recent days with former House Republican leader Liz Cheney and billionaire businessman Mark Cuban while progressive icons like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have been relegated to low-profile roles.
“The truth of the matter is that there are a hell of a lot more working-class people who could vote for Kamala Harris than there are conservative Republicans,” Sanders told The Associated Press in an interview Thursday.
Sanders noted that he’s been doing whatever he’s asked to help Harris win. He has participated in two dozen Harris campaign related-events this month alone, although they’re largely in rural areas. None have been with Harris.
“She has to start talking more to the needs of working-class people,” Sanders said. “I wish this had taken place two months ago. It is what it is.”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, praised Harris’ advertising team for “smartly” investing hundreds of millions of dollars behind ads focusing on grocery prices, taxing billionaires and Social Security — “things that both win swing voters and pump up the base.”
But, Green said, “there’s been an odd disconnect between the campaign’s economic populist ad strategy and the event strategy that focuses almost exclusively on Liz Cheney kumbaya optics that depress the base right as voting begins and don’t provably win more swing voters than bread-and-butter issues.”
Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of the progressive group Our Revolution, suggested that as many as 10% of progressives may not vote for Harris because of their frustrations. Some may not cast a ballot at all, he said, while some may even support Trump. The former president has called Cheney, a backer of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, a “stupid war hawk” as he tries to win over Arab Americans in Michigan angry about the more than 42,000 Palestinians killed in Israel’s Gaza offensive.
“We just want to raise a red flag. Don’t take the progressive movement for granted,” Geevarghese said. “There’s got to be an economic argument at the end of the day. That’s the No. 1 thing that matters to voters.”
Indeed, about 4 in 10 likely voters in a recent CNN poll said the economy was their most important issue when deciding how to vote, and about 2 in 10 said protecting democracy was. About 1 in 10 named either immigration or abortion and reproductive rights.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/progressives-warn-harris-must-change-her-closing-message-as-the-election-looms/ar-AA1sTgUN
“Specifically, several progressive leaders believe that the Democratic nominee has been too focused on winning over moderate Republicans in recent days at the expense of her own party’s passionate liberals.”
Why would she want to court liberal extremists? Are the progressives going to protest by voting for Trump?
Seems like a dumb argument…
CA Ventures Sells Newly Built Atlanta Apartment Tower For $119M
An embattled Chicago developer parted ways with an apartment tower it recently completed in Midtown Atlanta.
CA Ventures has sold 903 Peachtree, a 427-unit, 33-story apartment building that opened last year, to fellow Chicago real estate firm Waterton, the buyer announced Thursday.
The price of the deal was $118.6M, which works out to roughly $278K per unit, the Atlanta Business Chronicle reported. That price represents a significant discount for a newly constructed building — a similar trade would have happened at north of $400K per unit as recently as two years ago, the ABC reported.
https://www.bisnow.com/atlanta/news/multifamily/ca-ventures-sells-trophy-atlanta-apartment-tower-for-119m-126482
$160M Boston Office Loan Hits Special Servicing After WeWork Exit
A loan tied to an office building in Boston’s Back Bay has been moved to special servicing after its landlord lost two major tenants and missed a payment this month.
New York-based Capital Properties had been current on its $160M loan tied to the Park Square Building until it missed this month’s payment, and the borrower said it would stop making any capital contributions to fund shortfalls, according to Morningstar Credit. The loan was transferred to special servicing with LNR Securities Holdings LLC.
The CMBS loan is made up of two parts of $100M and $60M. Both pieces were issued in October 2017 and are scheduled to mature in November 2027.
Capital Properties didn’t respond to Bisnow’s request for comment.
The loan is tied to the landlord’s 500K SF Park Square Building at 31 St. James Ave. in the Back Bay. The property had an occupancy of 96% when the loan was underwritten, but it saw two major tenants depart last year.
The two tenants accounted for one-third of the building’s total square footage, and after they vacated, its occupancy fell to 42% as of June, according to Morningstar.
https://www.bisnow.com/boston/news/office/back-bay-office-loan-moved-to-special-servicing-126427
Lying realtors (redundant) are trying and failing to drum up a false sense of urgency.
https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1850273697036440062
‘If you want to be able to strengthen our mortgage financial system so that we make sure that people are in reasonable, responsible loans and that we don’t have to bail out the mortgage finance system again, we need to fix Fannie and Freddie’
He’s right, these two aren’t making responsible loans and haven’t for years. The only thing that gives them cover is guberment backing. I hope he gets the FHFA post and finishes the job.
‘People are only moving if they have to…We’ll go a week without a showing, which is a long time compared to even last year’
You’ve been sinking like a turd in a well since 2022 Nicole, but just the other day Tina said the very first ‘smidgen’ of hope for bitter renters had arrived.
‘A seventh person was arrested and charged with stealing from Hammocks homeowners, billing them $172,000 over five months for work that was never performed, including cleanup after a hurricane during a period when there were no hurricanes or tropical storms, building a haunted house for Halloween, putting up Christmas lights, repairing a roof, painting a pergola and changing a swimming pool filter…Ivan Dario Diez, 58, charged with grand theft, organized scheme to defraud, fabricating evidence and perjury, participated in a plot to divert homeowners’ maintenance fees at the 3,800-acre West Kendall community to fake companies run by the relatives of ex- HOA president Marglli Gallego, ‘who was head of this criminal enterprise,’ Fernandez Rundle said. Gallego and five others, including her husband, a cousin and three board officers, were previously charged in the scheme, which a court-appointed receiver estimates drained $6 million from HOA bank accounts with checks written to sham vendors — as well as through wasteful spending and mismanagement’
‘Homeowners rebelled after years of what they called totalitarian rule and tried to oust a board of directors that quadrupled monthly fees, neglected maintenance, harassed residents with foreclosure warnings and code violation fines, held secret meetings and conducted rigged elections. Fernandez Rundle said since they arrested Hammocks board members, her office has received 400-500 complaints from homeowners across the state who believe they are being deceived by their HOAs. Half of Florida’s population lives in a condominium or HOA’
My thanks to all the people living at Hammocks for contributing today’s HBB Pitfalls of Commie Urban Living™.
‘Teshara, co-chair of the group Stop the Tahoe Vacancy Tax said South Lake Tahoe has been a second home community for years and owners shouldn’t be forced to rent their homes. He argues some owners could be inclined to sell their homes due to this tax. ‘The fees pile up,’ said Teshara. ‘A lot of the people here, you know, are people that we know, just regular folks, are not wealthy people’
Yes Steve, it’s becoming clearer every day that many of the winnahs! are actually broke a$$ losers.
‘There are a lot of homeowners in L.A. who lean left, are sympathetic to the problem of homelessness and are generally supportive of these solutions,’ Thomas said. ‘But on a neighborhood block, they’re incentivized quite differently’
They don’t like paying 2 million pesos and having a bum sh$ting on their driveway every night Kyla. They aren’t going to be able to give it away!
‘Brown believes the new targets will create a more competitive environment. ‘The majority are going to Vancouver, and that poses a problem because we don’t have enough jobs to support all of these people’
But the igloo clusters around that sh$hole do Chris?
‘Their economic model was to buy bottom-of-the-range estates, hoping for an immediate return by producing wine at less than five euros and selling via their own distribution networks for 20, 40 or even 100 euros a throw’…While that tactic may have worked for some in the past, it is no longer the case. Since Covid, China’s domestic wine consumption has nosedived, falling by a quarter in 2023 alone, according to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine. One technical manager, who preferred not to give his name, told AFP that he had only met his former boss ‘once in the space of four years’ and had been bombarded with ‘impossible demands’ that ‘didn’t take into account the lifecycle of the vine’
What a great feel good story. Stupid Chinese speculators make a$$es of themselves and get schlonged by half!
“One technical manager, who preferred not to give his name, told AFP that he had only met his former boss ‘once in the space of four years’ and had been bombarded with ‘impossible demands’ that ‘didn’t take into account the lifecycle of the vine’“
Amazing how these bosses seem to rise through the ranks without ever know much about how the firm earns their money.
Laura & Anton – “I’ll See You In My Dreams” – (Winter Sessions 4 of 5)
Foxtails Brigade
13 years ago
Episode 4 of Winter Sessions, a live-performance video series of original and cover songs.
Laura & Anton of Foxtails Brigade cover this timeless classic. Music by, Isham Jones, lyrics by Gus Kahn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlmlDoDIJMU
4:21.
After watching the videos and not being able to determine that the toddler actually said I’m voting for Trump or I’m pro life the only thing I can say is this is one twisted cookie getting paid $4k to set up Kamala rallies.
Staffer Screaming at Toddler Goes Viral
by Infowars.com
October 26th, 2024 3:35 PM
A Democrat Party staffer was shown on video screaming at a toddler in a stroller outside the candidate’s rally in Houston on Friday.
The staffer, identified as Jordan Bowen, a paid staffer for the Harris County Democratic Party, was seen crouching down to scream in a toddler’s face before a colleague broke her away.
Bowen reportedly worked as Organizing Director for the Harris County Democratic Party for years, according to political contribution dataset website OpenSecrets.
https://www.infowars.com/posts/video-of-kamala-campaign-staffer-screaming-at-toddler-goes-viral
That woman needs a knuckle sandwich.
Wall Street Apes
@WallStreetApes
HOLY SH*T 🚨 Iowa Poll Watcher says Illegal Migrants ARE BEING ALLOWED TO VOTE
“I feel like this is something I need to share with every US citizen — I signed up to work this November 5th election poll — The reason why I did this was because I wanted to see firsthand for myself if illegal immigrants are actually being allowed to vote. And I’m here to tell you that yes they are.”
She goes through her official instructions manual and gives MANY examples of how illegals migrants CAN VOTE
“I contemplated whether I wanted to make this video or not. I didn’t sleep last night. I’ve been awake since 1 o’clock this morning. Just thinking about this. — You all need to know this. You need to be aware of this.”
10:10 PM · Oct 25, 2024
·
https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1849997019831812306
NENA | 99 Luftballons [1983] [Offizielles HD Musikvideo]
https://youtu.be/Fpu5a0Bl8eY?si=U_n8DxHEL_AljKsr
Haven’t heard much news lately about China Evergrande. Did they finally work through their difficult days?
China Evergrande Faces Trading Suspension Amid Liquidation
China Evergrande Group () has released an update.
China Evergrande Group, currently in liquidation, has announced the cessation of discussions concerning potential transactions, as no agreements have been reached. Trading in the company’s shares remains suspended since January 2024, with investors advised to exercise caution. The group is still seeking buyers for its NEV Co shares but has not identified any concrete opportunities yet.
…
https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/china-evergrande-faces-trading-suspension-amid-liquidation
CHINA EVERGRANDE GROUP
Delayed Hong Kong S.E. 03:08:35 2024-01-29 am EST 1st Jan Change
0.1630 HKD -20.87% -30.64%
October 24, 2024 at 12:42 am EDT
HONG KONG (Reuters) – Chinese property developer Jiayuan International said the Hong Kong stock exchange has decided its shares will be delisted on Oct. 29 after the company did not meet guidelines for the shares to resume trading by an 18-month deadline.
Jiayuan was one of the first Chinese property developers ordered by the Hong Kong court to liquidate since the sector slipped into a debt crisis in 2021, resulting in many company defaults.
A number of Chinese property developers have been ordered to liquidate by offshore courts so far, including China Evergrande Group, and Jiayuan’s delisting highlights the struggle of companies in liquidation to come up with a viable restructuring solution.
…