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For Many, The Question Might Better Be Asked, Will My Home Sell In The Current Market?

A report from the Globe and Mail in Canada. “Every financial market you can think of is in an uproar right now, but not Toronto real estate. John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty said there’s a sense among buyers, fed by commentary from economists and the housing industry, that the only thing to worry about in the Toronto market is a lack of properties on sale. ‘The problem with this is that it makes people think prices can only go up,’ he said. ‘Of course, that’s not the case.'”

“Mr. Pasalis sees vulnerability in the fact that condo prices are soaring as a result of buying by investors who plan to rent their units, but growth in monthly rents has faded. This could make it harder to generate the monthly income needed to carry the mortgage on an investment property. The market for single-family homes has its own problems. ‘It’s not healthy,’ Mr. Pasalis said. ‘It’s so competitive and we’re seeing a lot of irrational prices being paid. People are offering prices that make zero sense.'”

From Better Dwelling in Canada. “Greater Toronto new home sales are back above typical volumes for the month. BILD and Altus Group data shows a big climb in sales this past January. The increase in sales helped to push condo apartment prices to a new all-time high. Meanwhile, single-family homes continue to spiral lower. Single-family prices are still over 10% lower than the peak reached in 2017. Condo apartment prices pushed a new record high, after going parabolic in October.”

“Greater Toronto is seeing a lot more new home inventory these days. There were 16,176 new homes for sale in January, up 4.15% from a year before. Single-family homes represented 4,544 of those listings, down 12.04% from last year. Condo apartments represented the other 11,632 listings, up 12.23% from last year. This is the most January inventory in at least 3 years.”

The Wall Street Journal. “The lowest mortgage rates on record are colliding with the prospect of an economic downturn prompted by the coronavirus outbreak, setting the stage for an unpredictable spring selling season in the housing market. ‘I thought that there would be a steady increase from January pretty much throughout most of the year,’ said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. ‘Obviously, we hit a major speed bump’ due to the epidemic.”

From Mansion Global on New York. “A massive Manhattan apartment in the iconic Sherry-Netherland hotel that belongs to self-exiled Chinese billionaire developer Guo Wengui has come back onto the market with another hefty price reduction. Occupying the 18th floor of the Sherry-Netherland, a hotel and co-operative building on Fifth Avenue and 59th Street in Manhattan, the 15-room pad was relisted for $55 million on Tuesday by Brown Harris Stevens.”

“Mr. Guo, also known as Miles Kwok, first put the seven-bedroom, eight-bathroom home on the market for $86 million in October 2015, a few months after he purchased it for $67.5 million, property records show.”

From Chicago Magazine in Illinois. “Perched on the 86th floor of the Trump International Hotel & Tower, Unit 86B sits in almost rarefied air. But dizzying views of the skyline aren’t the only mark of high living in this 2,400-square-foot penthouse unit. The two-bedroom condo, currently asking $2.2 million, also boasts sleek new finishes, hardwood floors, and a master bath flush with Calacatta marble. Plus, it comes with a parking spot. The owners first listed the unit in March of 2019, for $3.1 million. Since then, they’ve slashed the price five times. In the latest cut, last month, it came down from $2.4 million in November to its current $2.2 million — a 30 percent drop from the original asking price.”

“‘With the market the way it is now, prices have gone down in a lot of buildings,’ says Margaret Baczkowski, the broker who listed the unit.”

The Palisadian Post in California.”Have you ever considered the number of Palisades homes for sale that do not seem to sell at all? Having just experienced a period of six years of steady price increases and then the recent flattened out market, most people might assume that everything put on the market does sell. In fact, many people I have talked with in the last several months have had the belief that not only does everything sell here, but that often they get higher prices than anyone would have expected. The idea that a significant percentage of homes don’t actually sell is not something given much thought.”

“We looked at each year’s listings and calculated what we call the ‘failure rate’ based on the listings that were withdrawn from the market or allowed to expire, or perhaps were re-listed and are still on the market. If a home was listed for lease and then leased instead of sold, we did not include it in the ‘failure rate’ calculations. In 2018 the rate was approximately 25%. In 2019 it had increased to 30%, which means that nearly one out of three homes people wanted to sell did not succeed.”

“People often ask us how long it might take to sell their home. For many, the question might better be asked, ‘Will my home sell in the current market?’ A cyclical market correction period is somewhat overdue, and prices, on average, are lower by about 5% over the last year.”

The Union Tribune in California. “Homebuilding in San Diego County last year dropped to levels not seen since 2014, said recently released building permit data. San Diego’s drop was almost entirely the result of a decline in multifamily building, down by 19 percent. Although that category includes condos and townhouses, it is mainly made up of apartments. Murtaza Baxamusa, director of planning and development for the San Diego Building Trades Council, said they began to see a slowdown in apartment construction — which has focused on the high-end of the market — as rent profits began to slow.”

“‘There’s only so many people that can afford the high rent that they were building at,’ Baxamusa said. ‘That market has tapped out.'”

The Los Angeles Daily News in California. “Despite year-over-year declines in rental costs, four Southern California cities still rank among the nation’s priciest apartment markets, a new report says. Price tracker ranked Los Angeles seventh, with its median asking rent in March at $2,250 for a one-bedroom apartment and $3,000 for a two-bedroom unit. L.A. saw a 3.4% annual decline for one-bedroom units and a 5.1% drop for two-bedroom apartments.”

“Santa Ana ranked 11th on Zumper’s list, with a median-priced one-bedroom unit renting for $1,690, down 5.1% from a year ago, and two-bedrooms renting for $2,190, up 0.5%. Anaheim’s median rent for a one-bedroom apartment is $1,610, down 1.2% from a year ago, and a two-bedroom unit is $1,980, down 7.5%. A median-priced, one-bedroom apartment in Long Beach is $1,560, down 3.7% from a year earlier, and a two-bedroom unit is $1,930, down 8.1%.”

From KOMO News in Washington. “It’s actually become less expensive over the past few years to live in a studio in the Seattle area, a new study found. According to, the average price of a studio in Seattle dropped 8.59% since 2016 to $1,737.41. In 2016, the average rent in the Seattle area for a studio apartment was $1,900.71. ‘It’s hard to believe that Seattle became more affordable since the last leap year, but it’s true,’ the report said.”

The Miami Herald in Florida. “What’s South Florida’s best rental bargain? According to Zumper, that would be Homestead, where median rent for a one-bedroom apartment costs less than $1,000 per month ($990 to be exact). While that price is up 5.3% from February 2019, it’s down almost 5% from January 2020. Median rents dropped the most in Miami Gardens (-15%), Sunrise (-14%), Hollywood (-8%) and Miramar (-6%). Rents also dropped in Pembroke Pines (-5%), Coral Gables (-4%), Plantation (-4%), Coconut Creek (-3%), Deerfield Beach (-2%), Weston (-1%) and Delray Beach (-1%).”

The Lincoln Journal Star in Nebraska. “Developers seeking to turn a blighted downtown block into new apartments for university students plan to start construction as soon as possible after getting approval Monday, their attorney said. The Downtown Lincoln Association Board of Directors took a neutral position on the project, according to a letter from Executive Director Todd Ogden and board Chair Ken Fougeron.”

“Students comprise two-thirds of downtown residents and although the association doesn’t oppose student housing, it believes there is an imbalance between student and nonstudent housing. ‘The board would also like to see the city provide an incentive for the development of housing that will diversify our current mix, especially given that our neighboring university has already experienced strong signs of oversaturation as it relates to student housing,’ the board’s letter said.”

From Tech Crunch. “Zumper, which provides listings of available rental properties and services (such as rent payments) to help manage landlords’ rental businesses, has raised $60 million, money that CEO and co-founder Anthemos Georgiades said it plans to use to continue both expanding its footprint in the US. Zumper competes against the likes of other fast-growing startups like Compass, as well as giants like Zillow and more recently Costar (owner of and many others). The latter two have shaped up to be key consolidators, acquiring smaller outfits and bigger rivals that have fallen into trouble to get better economies of scale.”

“But at the same time, we have seen a fair amount of stress in the industry, caused by the oversupply of inventory in the market, which puts pressure on prices; and some of the biggest and most established players getting hit hard trying to modernise their businesses. As one example, after RentPath — the owner of,, and others — filed for Chapter 11, Costar picked it up for $588 million (that deal has not officially closed).”

“‘Everyone is falling by the wayside,’ Georgiades said.”

From Skilled Nursing News. “Another skilled nursing facility in the state of Washington has reported an outbreak of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus that is sweeping the globe — resulting in major declines in the stock prices of several real estate investment trusts (REITs) with holdings in the skilled nursing and senior housing sectors. That facility, the Issaquah Nursing Home & Rehab Center, is owned by Sabra Health Care REIT, which saw stock market pain in Wednesday’s trading: The Irvine, Calif.-based REIT’s stock price dropped 14.43% over the course of the day, closing at $13.35 per share.”

“But it wasn’t the only REIT stock price to fall amid the coronavirus headlines. Omega Healthcare Investors fell 10.3%, closing at $31.44, while CareTrust REIT fell 13.76%, closing at $16.99. The Toledo, Ohio-based Welltower was also affected, dropping 12.57% over the course of Wednesday. Mizuho Securities USA managing director Omotayo Okusanya and assistant vice president Zachary Silverberg pointed out in a March 11 research note that the Issaquah facility is one of 24 properties covered by triple-net master lease Sabra has with operator North American Healthcare.”

“‘We can see a scenario where rents could be deferred by SBRA for a short period of time if cash flow gets squeezed at North American due to temporary operational disruption from the virus,’ the analysts wrote. ‘However, should the stigma attached to the virus result in the inability to get census up at the facilities for a longer period of time, then the issue of rent reductions may have to be broached given the relatively thin rent coverage.'”

This Post Has 269 Comments
  1. ‘John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty said there’s a sense among buyers, fed by commentary from economists and the housing industry, that the only thing to worry about in the Toronto market is a lack of properties on sale. ‘The problem with this is that it makes people think prices can only go up’

    This is the guy who got a lot of press two years ago saying the bubble in Toronto had popped. And we see in the BD report prices are still falling and condo inventory is way up.

    It’s helpful to contemplate what a mania actually is. Greed, fear. But the media is playing a large role in this. Keep stocking up on toilet paper Toronto.

    1. I’ve not posted here for many years, but came tonight to see if the board had responded to the current economic mess we’re all trying to decipher, and if so, what observations and suggestions might be offered?

      ISTM: Real estate prices are the very LEAST of our concerns at this moment, and I’m saddened to see we’re still squandering the collective mindset of this very thoughtful community dealing with such a peripheral issue as an irrelevant asset class– or is it? And if so, how do we *survive* this?

      When supply chains and delivery services are no longer functional and manufactured goods no longer available, perhaps our concerns should be redirected towards matters other than individual profit?

      But that’s just me.

      Cheers all; thank you, Ben. I miss you guys.


  2. We aren’t going to bail out asset prices, the rich, and the corporations again, are we? While allowing yet another leg down in average wages, and the life expectancy of everyone born after 1957.

    In 2016 Trump said stocks were in a bubble due to rock bottom interest rates, and he was right. The S&P 500 was at 2,000 at the time. Then the bubble inflated even more massively, to 3,400.

    If going from 3,400 to 2,000 (or 1,500 or 1,000) is a problem, then going from 2,000 to 3,400 was a problem. But I don’t recall many saying so at the time. In fact when the Fed tried to normalize interest rates, and stock prices well A LITTLE, that was considered a problem.

    1. +1000000000, Larry.

      “By keeping interest rates low, the Fed has created a “false stock market,” Trump argued in a wide-ranging interview…

      Trump said rates are being kept lower to bolster Obama’s legacy. “Any increase at all will be a very, very small increase because they want to keep the market up so Obama goes out and let the new guy … raise interest rates … and watch what happens in the stock market.” ”

      1. He may be a liar, but since he says one thing one day and the opposite the next day, some times he is absolutely right!

      2. “Once an economy falls into the tractor beam of zero rates, it’s almost impossible to escape them.” – Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management


      QE to infinity. The only policy option left. Like I said before this time there won’t be any vote in Congress. Taxation without representation. Everything will be decided and executed behind closed doors. The pandemic is the perfect cover the Fed needed to flood the system with free money for their constituents (doesn’t include you-BTW) because the system was going down anyway. Remember only a short time ago the 8 billion $ virus relief package was announced with much fanfare? Compare that with the largess provided to the banks and Wall Street. The system is over. The parasite has killed the host.

        1. It doesn’t really matter what happens to prices anymore because the system is permanently broken. When they limit what you can take from the ATM and you are standing in line behind a hundred people hoping to scrape together the last few dollars from your paycheck-to-paycheck existence and buy some toilet paper and instant noodles, the financial oligarchs in their guilted offices in the capstone of the pyramid will be handing themselves trillions of dollars of free money nightly, every dollar of which will enslave future generations in debt servitude for a millennia. That’s what is left of the system.

          1. ” When they limit what you can take from the ATM and you are standing in line behind a hundred people hoping to scrape together the last few dollars from your paycheck-to-paycheck existence”

            That’s what happens when you pay a grossly inflated price for a rapidly depreciating asset like a house….. then double down on those losses by financing.

      1. It’s almost completely ineffective now. In fact, it’s almost causing panic and more crashes.

        Pumping up a stock bubble does nothing for the economy. A healthy economy is about well-paying jobs and a populace that has low debt, savings and discretionary income. We have none of that.

      2. Based on the market’s reaction, I don’t think any amount of QE is fixing this. We are facing deflation ahead, pure and simple. Things have quickly turned to looking just like 2008.

        1. Correction: We face deflation, coupled with policies intended to prevent it.

          Result: Market chaos.

        2. just like 2008

          We faced deflation then, too. And the Fed managed to paper over it. This time is going to take a lot more paper if it’s even possible. People that think 2008 is the worst case scenario lack imagination.

          1. The thing is, they can’t drive rates down to zero again and hold them there for 10 years. They are already near zero, and were never unwound after the last recovery.

            We’ll see where they go from here!

          2. My call was to buy SOME at 17,000 – 19,000.

            This epidemic is increasing logarithmically, doubling every 4-5 days, which can overwhelm countries very quickly. The youtube channel Peak Prosperity describes this as “Case Case Case Cluster Cluster Boom.” China was Cluster before telling anyone, and went Boom four weeks ago. Iran went Boom two weeks ago. Italy went Boom a week ago. South Korea and Hong Kong are avoiding the Boom with aggressive testing and quarantine. Washington State is just entering Boom, as is California. New York is at Cluster stage. DC/MD/VA are about to go from Case to Cluster.

            DOW 17,000 would be optimistic in this scenario. By next week I expect most of the US to be in Cluster or Boom stage. At that point they may as well not even try to add liquidity. Expect DOW to hit 12,000 – 13,000. Of course, the time to buy is 14,000.

          3. The FED’s market manipulation and bubble after bubble after bubble policies have trained people to BTFD. That only works when bubble reflate. I don’t think there’s going to be any reflating this time. The reason being the public and private debt out there. It’s not repayable. Once the cascade of defaults, starts, it’s game over. The catalyst may have been this virus, but it’s not the cause.

          4. Carl, what was your call? Dow 15K?

            I’ve been saying one more trip to 10k for about 10 years now. Nothing to base it on except everything since then having been based on BS.

          5. “This epidemic is increasing logarithmically, doubling every 4-5 days, which can overwhelm countries very quickly.”

            That’s exponential increase, but point taken.

          6. Prof bear, I think you’re right that this is an exponential, but it’s plotted on a logarithmic axis, IIRC.

            I can speculate some more if you’d like. We could see 12,000 as early as a week from now, if the virus goes Boom. The volatility early this week showed that traders were trading on coronavirus alone. Now they are beginning to figure out that that liquidity does not (literally) solve the world’s ills.* So now your fundamentals are dead and your liquidity doesn’t work. At that point the ONLY support is the notion that this virus outbreak will quell itself in a couple years.

            Using only fundamentals (goods and services), what should the DOW really be? I’ll pick ~13,000, which is what it was in Feb 2012 when I bought my house. Adjust for a bit of pendulum swing and inflation, and 13,000 – 14,000 is the safest time to buy all in, at least for me.

            * Unless, of course, that liquidity is (literally again) bleach.

          7. which is what it was in Feb 2012 when I bought my house

            There’s a lot of air under that target. You bought in 2012 at 2004 prices, IIRC. 2004 was only a year before the peak. The housing bubble had been accelerating since 1980. Back then the Dow was below 1000.

            We may or may not find out where bedrock lies this time.

          8. Could be more rough sailing ahead as Mr Market digests emerging information about the true number of U.S. cases.

            Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus
            By Peter Sullivan – 03/12/20 05:10 PM EDT

            A top health official in Ohio estimated on Thursday that more than 100,000 people in the state have coronavirus, a shockingly high number that underscores the limited testing so far.

            Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton said at a press conference alongside Gov. Mike DeWine (R) that given that the virus is spreading in the community in Ohio, she estimates at least 1 percent of the population in the state has the virus.

            “We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today,” Acton said. “We have 11.7 million people. So the math is over 100,000. So that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly.”

          9. I don’t know why they didn’t start cancelling these public events and cutting unnecessary travel weeks ago.

          10. Didn’t think I’d be the bull around here. At least I’m still the reigning bear at home. 😀 My wife did admit yesterday that she’s glad we haven’t bought a shack yet, so there’s also that.

            If you draw a line fit of the Dow up until 95, it would suggest a Dow today of ~11K. If you include the weighting until now, around 15K. Bottom in 2009 was 7K.

          11. “I don’t know why they didn’t start cancelling these public events and cutting unnecessary travel weeks ago.”

            Hindsight is 20/20.

          12. I don’t know why they didn’t start cancelling these public events and cutting unnecessary travel weeks ago.

            I don’t either. They had all the information they needed out of China when they started hurrying up, trying to build new hospitals in a week. It was obvious there was something bad going on.

            If they would have stopped all travel then, canceled all these events and instituted limits on people leaving their houses, etc., they could have stopped this thing in its tracks. Instead, it was allowed to spread over the entire globe with a bunch of Chinese flying around like idiots and all the countries accepting them.

          13. “I’ll pick ~13,000, which is what it was in Feb 2012 when I bought my house. Adjust for a bit of pendulum swing and inflation, and 13,000 – 14,000 is the safest time to buy all in, at least for me.”

            I’ll be even more impressed if it drops that far. It’s hard to envision at this point, but then so is the rapid climb in the number of U.S. cases as millions of test kits are put to use, or the policy response of closing down all large meetings, entire industries and institutions in the interest of preventing community transmission.

          14. “That only works when bubble reflate. I don’t think there’s going to be any reflating this time. The reason being the public and private debt out there. It’s not repayable. Once the cascade of defaults, starts, it’s game over.”

            That’s exactly why they need a bigger QE now than ever before in history! As long as they can keep on biggering and biggering their bailouts to dramatically larger levels, they never need worry about cascading defaults of debt collapse to depression.

      3. In 2008 there was an uproar over Congress voting to give Wall Street a $700 billion bailout. Now the Fed is pumping the equivalent of that into these Ponzi markets every single week, and the response from policymakers as well as the public is a collective yawn.

  3. ‘the 15-room pad was relisted for $55 million…Mr. Guo, also known as Miles Kwok, first put the seven-bedroom, eight-bathroom home on the market for $86 million in October 2015, a few months after he purchased it for $67.5 million’

    Well it was cheaper than renting Miles.

  4. ‘calculated what we call the ‘failure rate’ based on the listings that were withdrawn from the market or allowed to expire, or perhaps were re-listed and are still on the market. If a home was listed for lease and then leased instead of sold, we did not include it in the ‘failure rate’ calculations. In 2018 the rate was approximately 25%. In 2019 it had increased to 30%’

    Openly discussing market manipulation – check!

    1. “Openly discussing market manipulation – check!”

      Hwy nominates Mr. Ben Jones to be the $pecial.Gue$t $peaker @ the 2020 NAR CONvention!

      Go & get’em Ben! Enter the Liar’$ arena & $lay tho$e toothle$$, pu$$ $pewing lion$!

    2. “Openly discussing market manipulation – check!”

      Well…. after all…. You know what they say about Realtors.

  5. $capegoat #1. ha$ a name: “Jerome “Pu$h.over” Powell”

    Economy & Politic$ | Federal Re$erve | The Fed

    Trump is furiou$ with Powell, wants Fed to do more to arre$t $tock drop

    MarketWatch | Published: March 12, 2020 |By Greg Robb

    During ten$e Oval Office meeting on Monday, Trump fumed Powell is damaging his presidency

    President Donald Trump again attacked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week as U.S. stocks slumped, according to a Washington Post report.

    The report, quoting three unidentified officials, said Trump had “an explosive tirade” about the Fed chairman during an Oval Office meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

    The president pushed Mnuchin, who has kept in close contact with Powell during the market volatility over the past three weeks, to get the Fed chairman to do more to stimulate the economy and arrest the stock market’s plummet, the report said.

    Trump said that Powell was damaging his presidency, the report said. While the president has not been shy about criticizing Powell in public, this high level of fury has not been widely known.

    The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a half a half percentage point on March 3 and the financial markets expect the central bank to cut rates by another 50 basis points when they meet next week.

    1. At this point I’m sure Powell would be happy to watch Trump crash and burn. Trump has embarrassed him repeatedly in public, shaming and taunting him.

    2. The man who believes Teddy Roosevelt said “speak loudly and act like you have a big d__k” also believes Harry Truman said “the buck stops anywhere but here.”

      A 40 year social tsunami isn’t The Donald’s fault individually. But since he is THE MAN of his generation, having it unravel on his watch isn’t necessarily unfair.

      1. “… having it unravel on his watch isn’t nece$$arily unfair.”

        Hi$ $$cribed non de plume: “King.of.Debt$!”

        A.ka: “you get$ what$ ya pay$ for’$” … $ad.

          1. Ru$$ia collap$e ll … again?

            COMMODITIE$ |MARCH 11, 2020 / UPDATED A DAY AGO

            $hell eye$ tankers for oil floating $torage after price$ collap$e

            Reuters |By Jonathan Saul, Ron Bousso

            LONDON (Reuters) – Royal Dutch Shell is in talks to charter at least three supertankers to store crude oil at sea as traders brace for a sharp rise in global stocks after OPEC and its allies abandoned a production cut deal

            Shell has provisionally booked three 2 million barrel vessels, known as very large crude carriers (VLCCs), for storage options for at least three months, the sources said.

            A Shell spokeswoman declined to comment.

            Once the charters were fully negotiated, or fixed, they would be the first tankers to be used for floating storage after the recent fall in oil prices.
            The shipping sources said at least one of the vessels had an option to store oil in the United States.

            Oil prices and the broader crude market pricing structure collapsed in recent days after OPEC and other major producing nations ended an output cut deal.

            A glut of crude oil in global spot markets is forcing the price of oil for immediate delivery below forward futures costs, known as a contango structure, making it potentially profitable to buy oil, store it offshore onboard vessels and sell it later at higher prices.

          2. $uddenly, everyone want$ $uper.tanker$!
            (Where’$ the U$A gonna $tore the “$”?, in a $alt.cave?)

            COMMODITIE$ |MARCH 11, 2020

            $audi provi$ionally charter$ 19 $upertanker$, six to U.$. as global oil price war heat$ up

            Reuters | By Devika Krishna Kumar, Jonathan Saul

            NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s national shipping firm, Bahri, has provisionally chartered up to 19 supertankers this week, with six set to take about 12 million barrels of Saudi crude to the United States, according to data and sources, as Riyadh ramps up shipments amid a price war with Russia.

            Saudi’s state oil giant Aramco said on Tuesday it would boost oil supplies to a record 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, or 300,000 bpd above its maximum production capacity.

            Bahri’s efforts to book tankers has driven market activity over the past two days, shipping sources said, helping send freight rates for supertankers or Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) surging.

            The shipments to the United States would mark a sharp increase from recent years, when Saudi Arabia reduced output in tandem with other top producers to prop up prices and the United States increased its own shale production to record levels.

            But on Saturday Saudi slashed prices for its crude to customers worldwide after OPEC failed to reach an agreement with the world’s No. 2 oil producer, Russia to deepen production cuts aimed at shoring up prices.

            “The discount now priced into Saudi Arabian crude has seen more bookings going West, and it has been a very long time since we have seen Bahri itself (and its predecessor Vela) book VLCCs to carry Saudi crude to the USG (U.S. Gulf Coast), which was a common occurrence prior to the shale revolution,”

            “The taps are opening again on the long-haul MEG-USG trade and that Saudi Arabia, now looking to export above its max production capacity, is likely to need more ships to cater to its own transportation.”

  6. ‘Zumper, which provides listings of available rental properties and services (such as rent payments) to help manage landlords’ rental businesses, has raised $60 million, money that CEO and co-founder Anthemos Georgiades said it plans to use to continue both expanding its footprint in the US’

    Stock bubble, met the apartment bubble.

    ‘Zumper competes against the likes of other fast-growing startups like Compass, as well as giants like Zillow and more recently Costar (owner of and many others). The latter two have shaped up to be key consolidators, acquiring smaller outfits and bigger rivals that have fallen into trouble to get better economies of scale’

    Losing money hand over fist – check!

    ‘But at the same time, we have seen a fair amount of stress in the industry, caused by the oversupply of inventory in the market, which puts pressure on prices; and some of the biggest and most established players getting hit hard’

    Wa happened to my shortage?

  7. ‘our neighboring university has already experienced strong signs of oversaturation as it relates to student housing’

    Recession proof!

  8. The WSJ title:

    Coronavirus Looms Over Crucial Spring Season for Housing Market

    ‘I thought that there would be a steady increase from January pretty much throughout most of the year,’ said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun’

    So why is it “crucial” Larry? Cuz a bubble has to keep growing. If it ain’t growing – DONG!

    Today’s email:

    24 New Foreclosures in COCONINO County, AZ

    1. Are there any repeats from the previous day email? Or is that actually 24 new foreclosures today?

      1. It’s from which used to be bad about double counting but is better today. What most people don’t know is that counties in Arizona are as big as some states. Many of these are in BFE. But I am seeing some high dollar Flagstaff stuff too.

  9. This must be why Diana said January was going to be such a huge month for home sales this year — she was comparing it to the spring market.

  10. Current headline on CNBC: “Dow losses reach nearly 9%, putting it on track for worst one-day decline since 1987 crash”

    ATM, Dow down 2154 (9.15%), S&P down 227 (8.31%).

  11. So it seems my crypto crash forecast the other day is bearing fruit. All crypto is down 23% – 25% in the past 24 hours!

    1. BTC reminds me of those dot-com stocks. You’re not really safe buying it low, since it might wink out altogether. The purported advantages of Crypto appear to be *not* panning out. It’s not immune to the system, it doesn”t appear to be a safe haven, and the “freedom from the tyranny of government” isn’t catching on at the moment. IMO BTC will probably survive this, but most other cryptos may not.

      And it looks like FB’s Libra is going to be delayed. FB’s blockcahin wallet is going to be based on dollar/euro.

      1. The Silk Road black market drug trade is what made Bitcoin. It was used to fund illegal activities, and still is today. Then you had a bunch of speculators rush in and juice the price. The entire crypto space is a scam.

    2. Considering how many Bitcoin fanbois levered up with debt to speculate on this scam currency, the forced asset liquidations are going to be epic. These twits have been mocking “old bugs” (gold bugs) for years…now as insolvency swallows them up, I expect them to go deathly silent on the PM forums.

      1. BitBois have big liquidity issues on the downside that dwarf any similar problems with PMs or Treasurys…

    1. Shut the hell up and get a clue, troll. This isn’t going to last anywhere near long enough to have an appreciable impact on real estate prices.

      1. SARS was spread out over 2002-2003, and this is bigger than SARS.

        You can kiss the 2020 home sales market good-bye.

      2. an appreciable impact on real estate prices

        None of us can know how long “this” will last, but we do know house prices are in an historic bubble and that it started going down quite a while before “this”.

        I’d give odds though that the ongoing RE crash will be dubbed the Corona Virus RE Crash.

  12. Why did the non.wanker.banker$ / “Private Equity Firm$” a$k their client$ to draw down to (0) zero$ all their available… line$$… ye$terday?

    Credit$ = $trength!💪👀

    1. …. and in the time it takes for this post to go through moderation, it will be down 2500.

      The Dow has a long way to fall.

      1. Might help iffin’ you dial in yer radio to k$o$ 86.2 FM (Free.Monie$)

        “Punch.Bowl” Powell is talking in Fed.Re$erve.$peak.

          1. When you$ invited to a party, doe$ you $how up @ the R$VP time, or 55 minute$ early?
            ($ome Hoste$$ find that arrival with a demeanor of $hock & Awe$!)

      1. Monie$ needed for exten$ive “credit.draw$” … $ee: Private.Equitie$ Client$ Activitie$ …

    1. ‘This is a DIFFERENT TIME. Only the Federal government can get us through this. ONLY. NO ONE else is big enough. This is my last shot to help this situation. The laughed in 2007 at me. NO MORE LAUGHING’

      A reply:

      ‘Sir, this is a Wendy’s’

        1. “Dope will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no dope.” —Gilbert Shelton, The Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers

      1. ‘The laughed in 2007 at me’

        “Do or do not. There is no try.” …
        “You must unlearn what you have learned.” …
        “Named must be your fear before banish it you can.” …
        “Fear is the path to the dark side. …
        “That is why you fail.” …
        “The greatest teacher, failure is.” …
        “Pass on what you have learned.”


        1. “Pa$$ on what you have learned.” … Yoda

          $ith.lord$ Central.Bank.Minion$ are Ma$ter$ now! … Join u$!

          1. The sportsball is dropping like flies. As long as they don’t shut down the burgers, ‘Merica will survive.

          2. Now they’ve cancelled hockey! Noooo!

            And Disneyland is closed through the end of the month, and I’m guessing April too.

            To put this in perspective, Disneyland reopened the day after 9/11.

      2. Pandering for bailouts is pathetic. You relished the never-ending record gains. Now enjoy your crow dinner like a man.

  13. New CNBC headline:

    “Fed to pump more than $500 billion into short-term bank funding, expand types of security purchases”

      1. “Bye.bye”

        I’m not going anywhere Trump derangement syndrome (TDS) I mean Hwy50ina.

        I have been here since 2005 getting solid information from some really smart people that helped me make the decision to sell a $50k place for $200k in late 05 which crashed back to $50k in 2010 and rent until 2012 when I bought my current home for $190k on a street where the same houses now sell for $480k. I may sell this place due to the change i the size of my family proximity to retirement etc. and this is where I will het most of my input on whether or when I do that.

        I merely said I am not going to post as the poster from a couple of weeks ago so eloquently put it your “orange man bad” oh good we have a pandemic and the markets are crashing and that will kill off oarange man B.S. But will check back on that in Augut to see if we are halfway to 2009s H1N1 600,000 dead world wide and halfway to the United States 89.3 million infected, 402,719 hospitalized and 18,306 dead.

        But looking at the bright side Hwy, maybe while they are looking for a cure to Coronavirus they will stumble on a cure for Trump derangement syndrome.

        March 11, 2020 at 7:07 pm
        Knock, knock …
        Who’s there?

        Orange who?

        “Orange you getting nervou$ yet”

        1.$, $elective.editing/ “alternate.fact$/ deliberate$.delu$ional.distortion$ … $ad.

          (Now eyes 👀 just spotted Elmer $neakin’ around with his $hot.gun! Yike$! 🕳️)

 doesn’t know me very wells do he? (🥕munch, munch)

          “dtRumpsis chaostica behaviour$ hath been very good to Hwy”

          1. 👌You bought it @ $190k? (-No.atm.adder$?) … $eek renter$ & pur$$perity! ✌

        2. Where are you getting the 90 million Americans infected with H1N1? I don’t remember any such panic. I probably would have contracted this myself.

          1. Low death rate = no panic.

            12,469/60,800,000 X 100% = 0.02% (about 1 out of every 5000 cases resulted in death).

          2. “Where are you getting the 90 million Americans infected with H1N1? I don’t remember any such panic. I probably would have contracted this myself.”

            From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.


            From Wikipedia

            As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.


  14. Somebody just dropped a liquidity bomb on Wall St. DOW up 800 in the blink of an eye. PPT efforting.

    1. This is incredible. The DOW caught a 1200 point bid to erase over half of its losses in mere seconds.

          1. My bold prediction – after this whole thing has blown over (virus, economic impacts, etc.) is DOW 7,500.

          2. That depends on how many people are on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy. I mean actual cash, not borrowed cash.

          3. That depends on how many people are on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy.


            I mean actual cash, not borrowed cash.


          4. That depends on how many people are on the sidelines with cash waiting to buy. I mean actual cash, not borrowed cash.

            Not many. Most are broke as a joke.

    2. Effort this:

      fastFT US Treasury bonds
      Strains in US government bond market rattle investors
      Analysts and fund managers urge swift action from Federal Reserve and Treasury
      Adam Samson, Robin Wigglesworth, Colby Smith and Joe Rennison 4 hours ago

      The US government bond market has come under severe strain during this week’s financial market tumult, prompting calls from analysts and fund managers for decisive action by the Federal Reserve to prevent a bigger calamity.

      Banks and investors have said that trading conditions in Treasuries, the world’s biggest and deepest debt market, have deteriorated markedly this week as the coronavirus outbreak has ignited severe ructions.

      The market became “overwhelmed by liquidity concerns” during a chaotic day on Wednesday, said Bank of America analysts said.

      “[This] could stop the Treasury market from functioning. If that happens it is a national security issue. It will limit the ability of the US government to respond to the coronavirus,” said Mark Cabana, a BofA strategist who authored Thursday’s report.

      A bond portfolio manager at a large asset manager said the situation had not improved on Thursday as volatility continued to grip the market. “We’re not trading,” he said.

      “The US Treasury market is the bedrock for all other financial markets; it is the world’s risk-free rate and allows the US government to fund itself,” BofA said in its report. “If the US Treasury market experiences large-scale illiquidity it will be difficult for other markets to price effectively and could lead to large-scale position liquidations elsewhere.”

  15. “Fed to pump more than $500 billion into short-term bank funding, expand types of security purchases”

    Damping the circuit and thus the lower the Q. OK so it crashes slower I guess they fear a blow out . Plus its not their money anyway.

    1. These fawking clowns have lost control. The losses were baked in the cake once they blew the bubbles in the first place.

      1. Ron Paul tried to warn the sheeple of what was going to happen if these Keynesian fraudsters weren’t reined in. The sheeple didn’t listen. Now they’re going to wish they had.

        1. I don’t think most of them are smart enough and/or aware enough to ever connect the dots between what that weird Libertarian dude said a long time ago and what’s happening now. Sheep aren’t bred for intelligence.

        2. Ditto for Ross Perot. I remember people poking fun at his predictions about free trade causing manufacturing jobs to leave the country.

  16. “Today, March 12, 2020, the Desk will offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation at 1:30 pm ET that will settle on March 13, 2020. Tomorrow, the Desk will further offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation and $500 billion in a one-month repo operation for same day settlement. Three-month and one-month repo operations for $500 billion will be offered on a weekly basis for the remainder of the monthly schedule. The Desk will continue to offer at least $175 billion in daily overnight repo operations and at least $45 billion in two-week term repo operations twice per week over this period.

    These changes are being made to address highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak.”

    1. I wonder how this will all settle out?

      Market Extra
      Fierce bond-market swings dry up liquidity in wide swathe of $15 trillion U.S. bond market
      Published: March 12, 2020 at 1:26 p.m. ET
      By Sunny Oh
      ‘I’ve never seen anything like it’, says veteran bond trader
      MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto

      Amid frenzied trading over the past week, the more-than-$15 trillion U.S. Treasury market showed cracks that caused frustration and raised eyebrows across Wall Street.

      Market participants say the cost to trade Treasurys with virtually identical terms but which differ in maturities by a few months has diverged sharply as traders struggle to buy and sell bonds in a hurry. This worrisome phenomenon underlines how volatility across Wall Street has seen trading volumes for older Treasurys slump even in the U.S. bond-market which is advertised as the deepest and most liquid safe-haven asset in the world.

      “I have never seen moves like this in 35 years of trading. I’ve never seen anything like it. At this point, the market will get absolutely exhausted,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director of Treasurys trading at Seaport Global Securities.

      1. “Market participants say the cost to trade Treasurys with virtually identical terms but which differ in maturities by a few months has diverged sharply as traders struggle to buy and sell bonds in a hurry.”

        Is the bond market turning into the housing market?

      2. “I wonder how this will all settle out?”

        With Wall Street, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Tea Party calling for MMT?

    1. Because all of those previous cuts did so much. How about we fire these clowns and do something different for a change?

  17. I’m pissed that this jerk Joe Biden is talking right now like he’s the President on the c-19 virus. He doesn’t have a government post so shut up you mindless jerk.

    1. And the stock market tanks again, just as when The Donald spoke.

      Joe would do well to pre-announce a cabinet full of people who are as mentally sharp as he was 20 years ago.

      1. Or says he’s running for a different office. “I’m Joe Obiden-bama, and I forgot this message.”

        1. LMAO! I was thinking since Biden seems to get into a dust up with just about everyone he encounters nowadays, maybe we could send him to Wuhan to battle the virus monster (I picture it like some sort of creature you’d see in a Godzilla movie). After he wins – via push up contest – he asserts his dominance by sniffing the virus monsters’ hair as they spoon!

          1. Well of course if come next November Dow is 10k and everybody’s unemployment is running out even a horrible candidate without two functional brain cells to rub together could beat him. Probably not Hillary, though…hopefully that ship has sailed off the edge of the earth.

          2. “hopefully that ship has sailed off the edge of the earth”

            She hasn’t.
            Milwaukee July 2020.
            The Coronation.

          3. She hasn’t.
            Milwaukee July 2020.
            The Coronation.

            If that were to happen…which I agree is a non-zero chance, I hope that all those Bernie voters will see what really happened.

    2. In 2008, Obama stepped in to push Democrats to vote for the bailout and stop the financial collapse. They ended up tarred with the bailout.

      In 1932, business leaders begged Roosevelt to make some statement about what he and the Democrats planned to do to restore confidence. He refused. Not my problem until inauguration, he said.

      So this will be one to watch.

  18. Dow is sinking again, even a trillion dollars of funny money wasn’t enough.

    “This sucker could go down.”

    1. As some guy said yesterday, “it’s not a financial problem, it’s a health issue. Stimulus isn’t likely to help here.”

      IOW, if the messaging about the virus isn’t straightened up, you can forget about a near term v-shaped recovery.

      1. ” … you can forget about a near term v-$haped recovery. ”

        Ha, … “It’$ the Viru$ $tupid!” … James Carville? maybee.

  19. If silver and gold continue falling, I’m tempted to buy a little more. I am starting to feel uncomfortable having so much cash sitting in the bank, and I don’t gamble on stocks. There’s not really anywhere else I’d want to put it.

    1. Precious metals are being dumped as the margin calls go out and funds and investors are dumping the baby with the bathwater. I’m happy to buy up all I can at these firesale prices. With the Fed doubling down on its failed Keynesian monetary policies, a dollar collapse is baked in the cake.

  20. Remember… As a noted economist said so eloquently, “Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.”

    He’s right. All that is happening is very bullish and positive.

  21. News yesterday said visitors to Hawaii down 30% y-o-y for the first week of March. Not sure if we’ll still get the weekly cruise ships or not. Rents for the businesses near the harbor are not cheap, they probably could not handle a downturn for too long. During GFC1 businesses were coming and going pretty quick in those buildings.

    30% in shack prices in this state would be nice. I just recently saw some places for sale at a lower price than 2005-6, when Hawaii last peaked. Doesn’t seem that long ago, but I guess time flies when youre living on a tropical island.

  22. Maybe putting a criminal private banking cartel in charge of our money issuance wasn’t such a hot idea.

    1. But it seemed so logical at the time. When we didn’t have a central bank they just wouldn’t shut up about about how much better things would be if we had one. And here we are.

  23. Bothell, WA Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Envelop Seattle Area

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist stated, “Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.”

        1. Oh the horror!!! Yes, Todays stock crater was the biggest point drop EVER and Monday was the 2nd biggest ever but thats just another opportunity to Buy the dip people, buy a shack or two. Buy buy buy, print print print, $1000 free free free, close disneyland, sports, events, these stay home paranoid sheep require shelter shacks. New promo since nobody eats open house cookies because of scary flu scare, free costco size rice and beans and bonus tp with every shack purchase!

      1. And the latest CNBC headline has the icing on the cake: “Bernie Sanders will win California primary, NBC News projects”

        1. I would love to see them do an analysis of the D primary based only on states that are in play for the Ds. It’s stupid if Biden wins the nomination based on states that the Ds will never win in the general.

      1. It’s hard to imagine any of their candidates winning, even if the stock market stays in the toilet.

      2. Falling financial markets affect the so-called blue states (NY, CT, NJ, MA, CA, WA) a lot more than they affect the red states (KY, WV, MS, AL, WY etc.)

        1. Falling financial markets affect the so-called blue states (NY, CT, NJ, MA, CA, WA) a lot more than they affect the red states (KY, WV, MS, AL, WY etc.)

          I dunno, people all over the country have 401K’s nowadays.

    1. In 2008 the implosion of the housing bubble took down the stock market. This time around it looks like the implosive of the Fed’s Ponzi markets is going to take down the housing market. People who levered up on debt to speculate on housing or bubble stocks are going to be facing their financial Waterloo.

  24. B…b…but Old Yellen, that most peerless of prognosticators, said there wouldn’t be another financial crisis “in our time” thanks to the great geniuses at the Fed and their so-called reforms of the banking system.

    LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that she does not believe that there will be another financial crisis for at least as long as she lives, thanks largely to reforms of the banking system since the 2007-09 crash.

    “Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis?” Yellen said at a question-and-answer event in London.

    “You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be,” she said.

    1. Not a flip but my neighbors had to put their place on the market as they skipped town for a job change. Previously accepted offer just fell through 2 days ago.

    1. In NY they are prohibiting gatherings of 500 or more.

      Are there any such gatherings in WY and ND in the absence of a virus?

  25. It’$ a Miracle!!! … $nake.oil.$alesman, has THEE CURE!!!!? … $pecial toothpa$te!

    (iffin’ eye soak my toothbrush in a cheap.bleach.solution, wouldn’t that the “kill” the air.borne China.death.germs.critters? Knot sure how to clean my lung.tissues … )

    March 11, 2020

    Alex Jone$ promote$ toothpa$te he claims ‘kills’ coronaviru$; FDA warns it’s fraudulent

    The Hill |BY ARIS FOLLEY

    InfoWars founder Alex Jones promoted a toothpaste he claims federal officials have said can kill coronavirus, which has infected and killed thousands worldwide, despite recent warnings issued by government agencies debunking that claim.

    the conspiracy theorist — who was arrested near Austin on Tuesday morning and charged with driving while intoxicated — made the claim about the toothpaste, which is being advertised as “nano-silver infused” on his website, during his show earlier this week.

    “The patented nanosilver we have, the Pentagon has come out and documented and Homeland Security has said this stuff kills the whole SARS-corona family at point-blank range,” he reportedly said on the show.

    “They’re still discounted despite all the hell breaking loose,” he continued.

    The claim comes about a week after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) warned The Jim Bakker Show and other companies for selling “fraudulent COVID-19 products” claiming to cure or prevent the virus.

    Those items included teas, essential oils, tinctures and colloidal silver, which is also reportedly known as nanosilver

    An FDA spokesperson told The Hill on Thursday that the agency is “aware of claims made by Alex Jones regarding supplements claiming to cure COVID-19.”

    The spokesman said that it “does not discuss compliance or enforcement matters, except with the party involved.”

    To date, the FDA “has issued warning letters to seven companies for selling fraudulent COVID-19 products and the agency intend to take further action

  26. I was talking to this guy who lives in Florence AZ today. He has a foreclosure app. It popped up one on his street and it turned out it was the woman next door. The shack is only 9 months since completion.

      1. Bet a cash out mortgage, hopefully she will be smart enough and can squat for 5 years keeping the house nice, until they get around to evicting her…….

  27. Here comes the liquidity tsunami! Run for high ground!!!

    The Financial Times
    Federal Reserve
    Fed promises to pump trillions of dollars into financial markets
    Emergency moves follow alarm over liquidity conditions in US Treasuries
    Colby Smith in New York and Brendan Greeley in Washington
    5 hours ago

    The Federal Reserve said it would pump trillions of dollars into the financial system in a dramatic attempt to ease stresses in short-term funding and US Treasury markets that have accompanied the spread of the coronavirus.

    The US central bank is also making changes to its programme of Treasury purchases “to address highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets”.

    For the third time in four days, the Fed’s New York arm announced on Thursday that it would increase the size of its lending in the repo market, where investors borrow cash in exchange for high-quality collateral like Treasuries — this time by multiples of the amounts previously on offer.

    The action provided a temporary jolt to US equity markets, which had been down as much as 8.8 per cent before the intervention amid mounting fear of the economic impact of efforts to contain the coronavirus.

    The S&P 500 index recovered some ground but reversed course again soon after, suggesting to Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, that markets still do not think policymakers have yet done enough to address the damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak.

    “It’s a deeply worrying sign,” she said. “Policymakers are really struggling.”

    1. How does this help all the small businesses and workers who are going to lose everything? Oh, yeah, it doesn’t.

    2. It appears the FED thinks all you need is a stock bubble and everything else is fine and dandy. Not so. Juicing the stock market back up to bubblicious highs will do nothing. It seems to me that the next 3-6 months might see an economic collapse that makes 2007-2008 look mild by comparison. A bubbly stock market does not seem like an antidote to such a pronounced contraction. When profits dry up everywhere, does anybody really think the stock market will just levitate? And even if it did, what does that accomplish?

      1. Lots of homeless people who can’t afford to put a roof over there heads could probably also testify to the folly of higher asset prices forever.

        The minute prices start returning to affordable levels, the Fed panics and dumps trillions of liquidity on the markets.

    1. This is a huge blow to Disney’s bottom line, especially since the said there would be no layoffs. I guess it would be a good time to spruce up the parks and expedite finishing projects in progress. The parks are a $20B a year business.

  28. Late to the party?

    “Cloudbeds is largely used by small, independently owned vacation properties. The software helps owners manage their room availability, bookings and other back-office tasks. The founders like to think of the tool as an asset for the underdogs, helping small boutique hotels stay in business in the rapidly evolving travel landscape. One way they do that is by automatically syncing current booking data across platforms like Airbnb, Expedia and so that owners keep a wide funnel of customer inflow without manually updating their listings.”

        1. At what point will the boatloads of highly-leveraged debt used to buy stocks and drive up prices to the highest, most overvalued levels in history give way to cascading waves of deleveraging defaults?

        1. Excellent call! Lots of rain = lots of flowers. Plus far from asymptomatic coronavirus carriers…

          1. “Are the PNW HBBers enjoying nice weather?”

            We need the precipitation here in the Columbia Basin, such a dry winter.

    1. It sure doesn’t seem like the Fed’s massive liquidity injections are having their intended market calming effect.

      Asia Markets
      Japan stocks drop almost 9%, with Chinese stocks also diving as Asia Pacific markets sell off
      Published Thu, Mar 12 20207:35 PM EDT
      Updated 25 min ago
      Eustance Huang
      Key Points
      – In Japan, the Nikkei 225 was among the biggest losers among the region’s major markets as it dropped 8.88% in morning trade after earlier plunging 10%.
      – Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2,352.60 points lower at 21,200.62 — its worst drop since the 1987 “Black Monday” market crash, when it collapsed by more than 22%.
      – The U.S. Federal Reserve announced Thursday new moves to pump in more than $1 trillion into the financial system in an effort to combat potential freezes brought on by the coronavirus.

      1. intended market calming effect.

        What makes you think liquidity injections are aimed anywhere near those who seek calm other than the big private banks who own the Fed?

        1. Another interpretation is that they want to make sure that Megabank, Inc has plenty of cash available to snap up coronavirus-infested assets at firesale prices.

      2. Market researcher James Bianco calls the Federal Reserve’s move to pump $1.5 trillion into the market the “nuclear option” to calm investors gripped by coronavirus fears.

        Only, it didn’t work Thursday.

        “Financial markets are not recovering. It’s incredible to think that a trillion dollars can’t get these markets moving,” the Bianco Research president told CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “We’re at a critical time — unlike anything I’ve seen in my career even counting 2008.”

        1. But it’s working great today! Somebody with access to the Fed’s liquidity injections is hoovering up assets at firesale prices.

    1. When I think about this little runt, I imagine a movie scene where a bunch of really bad guys get caught at the end and are sentenced to death. When the executioner comes, most of the guilty accept their fate and stoically march forth towards the readied nooses.

      However, there’s a commotion which develops with one person in particular. It’s a bald runt with a screeching voice bellowing out about how unfair it all is, that he’s not guilty, that somebody needs to come save him, that he doesn’t deserve it, that he knows people, that he can help somebody, somewhere, somehow if they just let him off this one last time. They have to drag him sobbing, spitting and weeping and lift him up to the noose as he loses every last bit of his dignity. That’s Cramer.

    1. I created a new online account at Vanguard today. So I’ll be set, just in case I decide to buy a few stawks, etc. at fire sale prices. 🙂


    MARCH 12, 2020

    Jerry Wayne, a Michigan autoworker who was recently thrust into the political spotlight after getting into it with Democrat presidential frontrunner Joe Biden, was gifted a new rifle on Wednesday.

    Wayne has become a hero of Second Amendment supporters after he stood his ground while questioning Biden even when the former vice president called him a liar and threatened to fight him.

    Just days later, a Michigan firearms manufacturer reached out to Wayne to present him with a custom rifle featuring artwork mocking the Biden encounter.

    “AR-14,” is inscribed on the side of the rifle along with a silhouette of Biden saying, “You’re full of shit!”

    Biden told Wayne he was “full of shit” and referred to AR-15s as AR-14s in the viral confrontation video.

    The magazine reads “100 Round Clip Magazine,” which is also mocking a bonehead Biden quote from 2019.

    1. Politics
      Congress shuts down Capitol to the public, White House cancels tours amid coronavirus pandemic
      Published Thu, Mar 12 2020 10:14 AM EDT
      Updated Thu, Mar 12 2020 10:38 AM EDT
      Jacob Pramuk
      Key Points
      – The U.S. Capitol and House and Senate office buildings will be closed to the public for the rest of the month.
      – White House tours will also stop until further notice as officials try to curb the spread of coronavirus.
      – The moves in Washington come as confirmed cases in the U.S. top 1,300.

    2. Live updates: NCAA cancels March Madness because of coronavirus; states begin to close all schools
      As the coronavirus continues to spread, phrases like “quarantine,” “isolation,” and “social distancing” are making news. Here are the key differences of each. (Adriana Usero/The Washington Post)
      Teo Armus,
      Michael Brice-Saddler,
      Hannah Knowles,
      Marisa Iati,
      Alex Horton,
      Miriam Berger,
      Katie Mettler and
      Anna Fifield
      March 12, 2020 at 8:02 p.m. PDT

      1. “Only Idaho, Alabama, West Virginia and Alaska remained with no reported cases, according to those states’ health departments.”

    3. Coronavirus
      America shuts down
      From the Capitol to California, officials are taking aggressive new measures to limit social interactions.
      Health worker tests Coloradans for coronavirus
      A health worker helps with a drive-through coronavirus testing site in Denver. | Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images
      03/12/2020 11:58 AM EDT
      Updated: 03/12/2020 07:36 PM EDT

      Financial markets are careening. Public tours of the very symbols of American political power — the White House, Capitol Hill and Supreme Court — are being put on hold while some congressional offices are shuttering altogether. Campaign rallies are being canceled. Professional sports leagues have suspended play. And Broadway and Disneyland are shutting down.

      Each day, more and more employees are working remotely at companies large and small. Even the White House is considering mass teleworking. Schools are being closed or going virtual. Ohio students are getting a three-week spring break beginning Monday, while schools will be closed for two weeks across Maryland and six weeks in three Washington state counties. And travel is being discouraged — and in the case of foreign visitors from most of Europe, banned. Some cruise lines are even halting voyages on their ships.

    4. For many Americans, the coronavirus pandemic means a normal life is on hold
      By Christina Maxouris, Steve Almasy and Eliott C. McLaughlin, CNN
      Updated 10:26 PM ET, Thu March 12, 2020
      The Spalding NBA official game ball is seen before an NBA basketball game between an NBA game against the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday, Dec. 13, 2019, in Memphis, Tenn. (Matt Patterson via AP)
      Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson test positive for coronavirus

      (CNN) The dizzying number of cancellations and suspensions prompted by the coronavirus pandemic just kept growing Thursday, a day that saw the NCAA call off its March Madness, Major League Baseball bench spring training and Disney World and Disneyland shut their gates for a while.

      America, as we knew it, is on hold.

      Local and state governments are leading the way in dealing with the crisis, implementing school closures and crowd restrictions and working to ease the minds of their residents.

      The total number of people who have contracted Covid-19 since the coronavirus reached the United States in January has grown to nearly 1,700 people.

      All but three states have seen at least one case, and there have been deaths in seven states, including Georgia, where a 67-year-old man died at a hospital in an Atlanta suburb. A man in his 70s who lived in a long-term facility in Wyandotte County, near Kansas City, became the first from Kansas to die.

  30. These crypto moves are something to behold. Bitcoin Cash was down nearly 50% over the course of 24 hours, then caught a bid and shot up 25% in a matter of minutes. Same story for Bitcoin. Massive move up of nearly $2,000 in a matter of minutes.

  31. The robots must be stopped before they destroy the planet’s financial system.
    And only the Fed can handle the task!

    1. Hopefully the Fed can supply the markets with enough financial heroin to keep Wall Street traders from going into substance withdrawal syndrome.

      The Financial Times
      Opinion US equities
      Markets contemplate a future in which stimulus does not work
      Wall Street’s plunge underlines Fed’s diminishing ability to dampen shockwaves
      Gillian Tett
      President Donald Trump speaks on television from the White House as stock numbers are displayed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 12, 2020 in New York. – Wall Street stocks were deep in the red early Thursday, resuming after a 15-minute suspension as the economic pain from the coronavirus deepens and widens. About 25 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 21,505.07, down more than 2,000 points or 8.7 percent.The broad-based S&P 500 tumbled 8.1 percent to 2,519.43, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index shed 7.9 percent to 7,323.31. (Photo by Bryan R. Smith / AFP) (Photo by BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP via Getty Images)
      Gillian Tett 2 hours ago

      This decade, America’s equity market has been like a drug addict. Until 2008, investors were hooked on monetary heroin (ie a private sector credit bubble). Then, when that bubble burst, they turned to the financial equivalent of morphine (trillions of dollars of central bank support).

      Now, in the wake of Thursday’s historic equity market crash, they must contemplate a scary question: has this monetary morphine ceased to work?

      Think about it. Ever since 2016, the Federal Reserve has tried to wean the markets off its quantitative easing measures and ultra-low rates. But whenever markets have wobbled — as they did last year in the repurchase sector — the Fed always returned with a new monetary fix. That has helped to sustain a startling bull market in equities and bonds.

      Last week initially seemed a replay of this pattern: after equity markets tumbled, the Fed delivered a 50 basis point emergency cut. There was an immediate jump just after the rate cut — by 500 points for the Dow Jones Industrial Average — but it fell later that day.

      And this week the respite from a Fed hit was even more shortlived: on Thursday it pledged new asset purchases and $1.5tn support for repo markets but after a brief rally, equity prices crashed again, closing almost 10 per cent down. This is the fifth largest daily decline on record — which is chilling given that the four other episodes include 1987 and the three worst days in 1929.

      If you want to be optimistic, it is possible to argue (or hope) that the magnitude of Thursday’s crash can be partly blamed on the pesky robots. An ever-swelling proportion of the market is traded according to computer-driven strategies, and these unleash waves of automatic selling (or buying) when technical levels are breached, fuelling volatility.

  32. Will warmer weather help fight the coronavirus? Singapore and Australia suggest maybe not
    Analysis by James Griffiths, CNN
    Updated 8:35 PM ET, Thu March 12, 2020

    Hong Kong (CNN) As the novel coronavirus began spreading around the world this year, one common refrain from skeptics of the emergency measures being put in place to stop the outbreak was that it was just like the flu — dangerous to sensitive groups but routine and not something to get into lockdown over.
    We now know that assessment is wrong. At its lowest estimated fatality rate based on current data, Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, is thought to kill some 1-2% of known patients, compared to around 0.1% for winter influenza. The coronavirus also appears to be about as infectious as the flu, and potentially more so, especially as there are no specific treatment, cure or seasonal vaccine.
    There is one area in which experts hope the virus will still behave like influenza, however, by tapering off in spring. “This is a respiratory virus and they always give us trouble during cold weather, for obvious reasons,” Nelson Michael, a leading US military medical researcher, said of the novel coronavirus last week. “We’re all inside, the windows are closed, etcetera, so we typically call that the influenza or the flu season.”

    But what if the virus does not behave like influenza? Could we be dealing with infection rates that remain high throughout the year? More than 100 cases have been confirmed in Singapore, where it’s hot and muggy pretty much year round. Australia, Brazil and Argentina, all currently in the middle of summer, have also reported dozens of cases.

  33. If Treasurys lose their safe haven status, where is a safe place to hide monies? Gold, perhaps?

    1. The Financial Times
      US Treasury bonds
      Cracks in US Treasury market could spell trouble for the system
      Analysts say unwinding of ‘relative value’ trades could exacerbate a sell-off
      © FT montage; Getty Images
      Joe Rennison in London and Colby Smith in New York
      11 hours ago

      Investors and analysts are warning about deepening cracks in the world’s largest government bond market.

      Strange patterns have started to emerge, such as drops in the price of US Treasuries — a traditional haven — even while riskier assets such as stocks have been squeezed by fears that the coronavirus outbreak will spark a global recession.

      Some are warning that the patterns could lead to the unwinding of one of the market’s most popular trading strategies — with potentially serious consequences. Such fears prompted the US Federal Reserve to announce a sweeping package of measures on Thursday to try to ease conditions, including pumping trillions into the financial system.

      How did we get here?

      Nervous banks and other dealers seeking to insulate themselves from swings in asset prices have pulled back from facilitating trades between investors.

      The US Treasury market is normally a safe place for investors to shelter from sell-offs but it has not been able to escape the onslaught of volatility. This has made it more expensive for investors to buy and sell Treasuries, as dealers have retreated.

    2. Treasury liquidity is evaporating as traders need it most – endangering a $50 trillion debt market
      Ben Winck
      Mar. 12, 2020, 10:48 AM
      – Liquidity in the Treasury bill market plummeted to record lows this week, according to JPMorgan, posing a threat to the popular safe haven and the trillions of dollars linked to US bonds.
      – Treasury yields serve as a benchmark for emerging market debt, mortgages, and several other fixed-income assets.
      – A liquidity problem “makes it much harder to sense the value” of more than $50 trillion in dollar-denominated debt assets around the world, Joshua Younger, head of US interest rate derivatives strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg.
      – Treasury liquidity could also be stifled by the rising cost to trade US notes. About two-thirds of 30-year bond trades are occurring with wider-than-usual bid/ask spreads, Bloomberg reported.

    1. The mighty bull (market) falls victim to a tiny virus
      By STAN CHOE

      NEW YORK (AP) — In the end, the mighty bull was slayed by a tiny virus.

      The longest bull market in U.S. history can now be said to have lasted almost 11 years and rewarded investors with a return of 529% based on the performance of the S&P 500, including dividends.

      The bull officially ran from March 9, 2009, until Feb. 19, 2020, when it began the 26.7% dive that as of Thursday has taken it into bear market territory.

      The record run for stocks appeared fairly smooth but there were some hiccups. The bull survived a downgrade to the U.S. credit rating and the European debt crisis in 2011, two slowdowns in China (2015, 2016) and a market freakout over higher interest rates in late 2018, after investors had been spoiled by ultra-low rates for a decade.

      1. “…after investors had been spoiled by ultra-low rates for a decade.”

        Low rates today
        Are here to stay.

  34. Look for the money spigot to be opened furthur …

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Friday said he expected the U.S. economic hit from the coronavirus outbreak to be short-term, and that the Trump administration was keeping its options open for any other future steps that may be needed.

    Mnuchin told CNBC the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve were working to keep markets open and to provide “unlimited liquidity.” He also said negotiations with House Democrats over an economic relief package were also going well.

    “We’re going to look at every tool in the toolbox,” he said in an interview.

    Mnuchin: Coronavirus’ economic hit seen as short-term, weighing all options – Reuters

  35. Does it seem odd to others when market pundits pretend we live in a world without bailout authorities trying to offset market fundamentals at every turn?

    1. Need to Know
      Market crash has reached the ‘panic’ stage, and ‘demoralization’ is still to come, Wall Street strategist says
      Published: March 13, 2020 at 8:37 a.m. ET
      By Steve Goldstein
      A health official talks to a colleague as they disinfect a mosque in the wake of the new coronavirus outbreak ahead of the Friday prayer in Jakarta, Indonesia on March 13, 2020. Associated Press

      At least you can say the record-setting bull run didn’t end quietly.

      The S&P 500 US:SPX entered a bear market — a 20%-plus drop from highs — with the biggest drop since the 1987 crash, when it declined 9.5% on Thursday.

      Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity’s strategist who was a big bull throughout 2019, had already become more cautious this year even before the coronavirus outbreak and OPEC’s oil price war finally cut the legs out of the bull rally. “We believe that until there is proper testing and clarity for the COVID-19 virus in the U.S., it is impossible to come up with a reasonable turning point and fundamental assumption, so we are therefore relying on human nature following a market crash as a guide,” Dwyer said.

    2. Does it seem odd to others when market pundits pretend we live in a world without bailout authorities trying to offset market fundamentals at every turn?

      Only if you don’t think of them as part of the authority’s system.

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