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There’s Just Not Enough Money In The Real Estate Ecosystem To Make Anything Work Right Now

A report from the Daily Independent in Arizona. “‘They were warned. They were warned. They were warned again. There is no satisfaction in being able to say, ‘I told you so,’ said Roland Murphy, an independent commercial real estate market analyst based in Phoenix. ‘Those of us who followed and actually cared about the multifamily market in the last several years repeatedly warned investors and developers to diversify their property portfolios to not rely so heavily upon Class A. I, for one, advised against no more than 60% holdings in that space.'”

“‘While none of us could have imagined the staggering impacts of COVID-19 as a ‘black swan’ event, it was a certainty that holding $1,650 minimum rents in high-dynamic districts wasn’t sustainable,’ Mr. Murphy said. ‘Now investors and property managers are looking at massive downturns with no sustained or sustainable sections of market to prop up their positions.'”

From Gothamist on New York. “If pandemic Manhattan is a ghost town, Hudson Yards is its ghost capital. The million-square-foot mall built into the base of 20 Hudson Yards is open but eerily empty. And for the worse is where things seem headed, at least in the short term. If rents fall, so should tax assessments, and with them revenues for paying off the city’s Hudson Yards debt. ‘I don’t think there’s a world in which that doesn’t happen—rents are going to come down more than they have,” says Steven Soutendijk, executive managing director of retail services for the commercial real estate behemoth Cushman and Wakefield.”

“‘A lot of people will be able to start new businesses,’ says Soutendijk. ‘I thought I was going to have to live in Columbus, Ohio, because I can only pay $1,200 a month in rent —well, good news, that two-bedroom in the East Village that used to be four grand is now $2,600.'”

From WBEZ on Illinois. “Frank Celio owns a brown and beige single-family home in Hegewisch, a working-class neighborhood on Chicago’s Far South Side just blocks from the Illinois-Indiana state line. Today, Celio said he rents the home — and wants to evict the tenants. ‘The government won’t let us get him out of there … It’s really, really frustrating because in the past I could just easily make a motion to evict — and that would be the end of it,’ Celio said. ‘I can’t even do that now — and it’s my property. I can’t do nothing with it.'”

“Landlords like Celio, who owns properties in Illinois and Northwest Indiana, are navigating a series of new eviction moratoriums that vary by location. While these efforts have been lauded by housing advocates, landlords like Celio say the protections favor renters. And experts say these new rules could lead to a surge in foreclosures for landlords down the road.”

“Chicago attorney Carol Oshana represents landlords who mostly ‘own just one building’ to supplement their income. These small landlords, also known as single-family rentals, make up about 34% of the estimated 45 million renter households in America, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. In the Chicago metropolitan area, as of 2018, single family rentals make up about 20% of the 1.3 million rental units, according to Joint Center for Housing Studies.”

“‘My landlords are very desperate. They have [renters who] are working but don’t want to pay,’ Oshana said.”

The Des Moines Register in Iowa. “Developers of a parking garage that is part of downtown’s proposed skyscraper The Fifth have defaulted on a loan, putting the future of the $170 million landmark project in question. A foreclosure petition, filed Monday by Bankers Trust Co., alleges owners Justin Mandelbaum, Sean Mandelbaum, and 5th and Walnut Parking LLC failed to pay on a $48 million note on the 11-story garage, which was due Aug. 31. The foreclosure follows a notice of default from the city, filed against the developers in June, for failing to reach construction deadlines outlined in a development agreement for the 40-story apartment tower, hotel and theater complex planned for the corner.”

The Commercial Appeal on Tennessee. “In a sign of the turmoil, seven Memphis landlords went to federal court in an effort to overturn the federal order and open way for evictions of tenants behind on rent payments. The lawsuit was briefly dropped on Wednesday and refiled as a new case after some of the original plaintiffs were removed from the action. Next year, evictions could increase. One sign of pain appeared this month. In September’s first week, 32% of renters nationwide failed to make a full monthly rent payment, up from 10% in August, estimated housing analyst Chris Salviati of Apartment List.”

“What’s not clear, said Jim Reedy, chief executive of a Memphis real estate firm that rents out 2,100 apartments and 1,000 houses, is what will happen in the market in the coming weeks. The $600 supplement ended in July. The jobless rate hasn’t receded. And the eviction moratorium will end Dec. 31. ‘By the end of the year, the real shake-out is going to begin unless we get another stimulus worked out in Washington,’ Reedy said. ‘That’s when the job losses are going to rear their ugly head. That’s when the real pain starts.'”

From Patch. “The owner of the Connecticut Post Mall has a blunt message for city officials who may be on the fence concerning the company’s proposed $75 million luxury apartment complex plans. ‘Failure to allow this first-class investment will prevent the mall from stabilizing and could be the end of the property as an enclosed mall,’ officials said in its plans to the city of Milford. ‘Failure to invest now could cause the property to be one of the malls that does not survive the shakeout.'”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “In another sign of how unusual this September has been in Boston, even the moving trucks are staying put. The lack of activity is an indication of the city’s soft rental market. A real estate website this week crunched the numbers on how many people sought permits to park moving trucks in Boston this year, and found requests are down sharply in September compared with last year. Indeed, they’ve been down for five of the last six months, and are off 15 percent for 2020.”

“It’s a real-life example of the COVID-19-induced slowdown in Boston’s typically-tight apartment market, said data analysts at Renthop, who have tracked city moving permit data for several years. As the traditional Sept. 1 turnover date approached, some landlords were cutting rents and offering a month or more free as incentives to fill thousands of still-unspoken-for apartments. And sure enough, when move-in weekend hit, there were fewer rental trucks plying the streets from Allston-Brighton to the Seaport. The declines have come nearly across the board, but were more pronounced in some neighborhoods than in others.”

From Socket Site on California. “Having slipped last month, the weighted average asking rent for an apartment in Oakland is now down over 13 percent since the end of last year and 17 percent below a 2016-era peak of roughly $3,000 a month. At the same time, listing activity for apartments in Oakland, which had remained relatively stable in the second quarter of the year, has jumped around 50 percent since the end of June and is now up around 70 percent versus the same time last year.”

From KCBS Radio in California. “Economic crises and recessions historically lead to a softening of the rental market. With the COVID-19 pandemic impacting large parts of the economy across the country and here in the Bay Area, experts say it is possible rents will fall once again. ‘We’re already hearing that tenants are requesting rent reductions because the market for housing just isn’t what it was six weeks ago,’ says Charley Goss with the San Francisco Apartment Association, which represents city property owners.”

“And despite state and countywide eviction moratoriums protecting residents who are unable to pay their rent, many are leaving on their own. ‘We surveyed 315 members last week, and found that 16% of property owners surveyed had renters who had moved out of the city due to COVID-19,’ says Goss, who expects the vacancy rate in San Francisco to go up.”

The San Francisco Examiner in California. “Yubalance’s story is a dime a dozen right now in San Francisco, where the coronavirus pandemic has left business owners struggling to stay afloat. Many fear the looming expiration date of the moratorium may trigger an ‘avalanche’ of evictions for commercial tenants, according to Allan Low, a real estate attorney who is working pro bono to help small businesses in The City’s Asian cultural districts. ‘Unless we rely on the generosity of landlords, there’s a real threat there’s going to be just a wave of litigation [from] landlords trying to collect rent,’ Low said. ‘The practical question there is: You sue and evict tenants, but who’s going to come in and take over the space?'”

“‘There’s just not enough money in the real estate ecosystem to make anything work right now,’ he continued. ‘Most tenants’ sales are down 70 to 80 percent and [they] just don’t have enough money to pay rent. If landlords aren’t collecting rent, they can’t pay their mortgage.'”

The Wall Street Journal. “Bank of Hope has been an American success story. The Los Angeles-based firm created a niche by lending to Korean Americans and other businesses run by recent immigrants. By merging with competitors, it increased its assets over the past decade to $17.2 billion. Then the pandemic hit. Now, the lender is one of many small and midsize U.S. banks buried under a pile of potentially troubled commercial real-estate loans.”

“Bank of Hope’s loan portfolio may be one of the most vulnerable. It had $3.1 billion in loans with Covid-19-related payment deferrals or other modifications as of June 30, according to its second-quarter earnings call. That accounts for around 18% of the bank’s total assets, ranking among the highest percentage for these kinds of loans in the country.”

“Loans with these modifications were equivalent to around 170% of the bank’s Tier-1 capital, a measure of reserves that protect against potential losses, a level higher than most peers. The vast majority are commercial mortgages. A large number were made to hotel and retail owners, according to its second-quarter earnings report, two of the hardest-hit property sectors.”

“Some smaller banks ‘gave money away like Pez dispensers’ when the property market was on the rise, said Mark Edelstein, chair of law firm Morrison & Foerster’s global real-estate group. ‘They’re going to be in for a rude awakening when the regulators come down and tell them they’ve got to put more capital against the loans.'”

“Few know the true scale of the industry’s problem. Federal regulators no longer require banks to list troubled loans on their balance sheets for as long as the borrower is getting Covid-19-related debt relief. Regulators don’t share information on these loans with the public. Shares of Bank of Hope’s parent, Hope Bancorp, are down more than 40% year to date, making its performance worse than its regional bank peers and well below the S&P 500 stock index’s modest gains this year. Shares of Los Angeles-based PacWest Bancorp, another regional bank with a large concentration of commercial real-estate loans, have also sold off this year.”

“‘People are saying ‘Look what happened last time,’ said Christopher McGratty, head of U.S. bank research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. ‘I think people are worried that they’re gonna have pretty big losses.'”

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This Post Has 105 Comments

  1. From the last link:

    ‘Community and regional banks have traditionally had a much higher concentration of commercial real-estate loans than their larger peers. That is in part because banks tend to build relationships with local real-estate investors. They also often focus on loans that are too small for the biggest banks.’

    ‘This concentration makes smaller banks vulnerable to property-market downturns. Commercial real estate was the main problem in 80% of the U.S. bank failures that occurred between 2008 and 2017, according to an analysis from Matthew Anderson, a managing director at data firm Trepp LLC.’

  2. Those of us who followed and actually cared about the multifamily market in the last several years repeatedly warned investors and developers to diversify their property portfolios to not rely so heavily upon Class A. I, for one, advised against no more than 60% holdings in that space’

    ‘While none of us could have imagined the staggering impacts of COVID-19 as a ‘black swan’ event, it was a certainty that holding $1,650 minimum rents in high-dynamic districts wasn’t sustainable…Now investors and property managers are looking at massive downturns with no sustained or sustainable sections of market to prop up their positions’

    And there it is: this was baked in the cake when these clowns launched this luxury apartment bubble. People in Phoenix can’t afford ‘$1,650 minimum rents.’ It was just a matter of time before it blew up.

    1. Can i hypothesize that the cause for these massive ‘misalignments’ are the facts that different parties are involved? And not a single owner end-end. I was talking to a guy in a bar (so of course hugely reputable 🙁 ). And he discussed about how it worked in downtown Seattle.

      Party 1 – Envisions the project, gets the approvals done and pre-vets other parties
      Party 2 – General Contractor – Builds the complex
      Party 3 – Management Firm. Responsible for filling in leases – up to > 80-90% and ‘show the revenue stream’ – however this does not include the ‘sales expense’ for the free 4-8 weeks of rent
      Party 4 – REIT or Pension. After 2 years (with a supposed history of revenue and occupancy), they purchase for a time window investment of 10-15 years.

      There is just not anyone personally on the hook – I think that i mentioned this before on this blog. I was in the bar with the guy talking and his friend (reasonably cute – early thirties) came by our table. She was totally stoked because she just got a large bonus for exceeding her quota to have apartments occupied. This was in early 2019

      I think that we forget there is an entire supply chain for large rental complexes – and NOBODY cares that it is successful – as long as they get their cut

      1. I think that we forget there is an entire supply chain for large rental complexes – and NOBODY cares that it is successful – as long as they get their cut

        It’s a bubble.

        1. PB,
          although understandable about folks sitting in the bar ….

          They do seem to tell truth that they would never mention in a business meeting. But of course, buyer beware

      3. I know you’ve mentioned it before here, as I’m pretty sure I replied to it.

        I know we’ve discussed how these deals come together because the numbers are made to ‘pencil out’ and how the specs of the units are adjusted to maximize the numbers.

        How everyone was pitching the idea that there are hordes of non-car owning 20-something single Amazon workers who will be thrilled living in a 500 to 800 sq ft box that’s still out-gassing Chinese drywall because it has a roof patio and poodle grooming salon on site. Whatever it took to convince each participant that they will make a nice chunk from their part in the chain and churn…

        1. MGSpiffy,

          my hypothesis is that deals are ‘penciled in’ because nobody owns it end-end. They are willing to have a deal go down the drain because 9 out of 10 previous deals worked out.

          The end owner is the pension fund or REIT – and the ramifications will not hit for 5-15 years – so none care.

          Contrast this to the singleton owners who (although are somewhat greedy) will get hammered.

          —-
          Today, Celio said he rents the home — and wants to evict the tenants. ‘The government won’t let us get him out of there … It’s really, really frustrating because in the past I could just easily make a motion to evict — and that would be the end of it,’ Celio said. ‘I can’t even do that now — and it’s my property. I can’t do nothing with it.’”

          1. Why does it take 5 or more years for the REIT HODLerz to figure out they are the bagholderz at the end of the chain of ownership? Are REIT investors that clueless?

      4. That’s exactly how it works.

        I dated a guy who managed a new building in Downtown LA. Once occupancy target was reached, the building was sold and he was out of a job.

        I have another friend who would live in new buildings on Wilshire Blvd in the Miracle Mile. Once the building got sold, then things started falling apart and not getting repaired. He would then move on to the next. Rinse and repeat…

      6. ‘I think that we forget there is an entire supply chain for large rental complexes – and NOBODY cares that it is successful – as long as they get their cut’

        It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It

    2. People in Phoenix can’t afford ‘$1,650 minimum rents.’

      I’m not sure they can even afford $825. Rents are so grossly overpriced that they need to come down by half in most places, even more in some locales.

        1. 1650/month in DebtDonkey world. $2k/month everywhere else.

          Now stack on taxes, insurance and depreciation at $4 a square foot… year after year after wallet draining year and it’s well over $3k a month….. and the lights haven’t been turned on.

          DonkeyMath works for DebtDonkeys. Others? Not so much.

          1. “ Now stack on taxes, insurance and depreciation at $4 a square foot… year after year after wallet draining year and it’s well over $3k a month….. and the lights haven’t been turned on.”

            Don’t forget maintenance, repairs, and much higher energy costs.

          2. “Don’t forget maintenance, repairs, and much higher energy costs.”

            When I say depreciation, I mean the yearly cost of maintenance and repairs. Good point on the higher energy cost though.

  4. This post is too long but the crater keeps piling in.

    ‘What’s not clear, said Jim Reedy, chief executive of a Memphis real estate firm that rents out 2,100 apartments and 1,000 houses, is what will happen in the market in the coming weeks. The $600 supplement ended in July. The jobless rate hasn’t receded. And the eviction moratorium will end Dec. 31. ‘By the end of the year, the real shake-out is going to begin unless we get another stimulus worked out in Washington,’ Reedy said. ‘That’s when the job losses are going to rear their ugly head. That’s when the real pain starts’

    Again, these guys are hanging on to the myth that $600 checks are gonna save their bacon. It won’t.

    ‘One sign of pain appeared this month. In September’s first week, 32% of renters nationwide failed to make a full monthly rent payment, up from 10% in August’

      1. No. It will depend.

        The COVID community has been strangely quiet in the past month. I think we’re overdue for a medical breakthrough. One of the vaccines, or the Ivermectin treatment, or the 15-minute mass paper testing, is likely to hit by the end of the year. Soon enough there will be no more reasons to keep the economy closed. At that point, we go into a regular recession, and post-election Congress isn’t going to borrow to cover your butt anymore. At that point, if you’re unemployed, it’s on you.

        1. Sorry, I mean “you” in a general way, not you specifically, rip. And those deadbeats who used their $2400 cheese to buy sexi-trux will be the first to kicked out. They won’t get any sympathy from their LLs.

        2. Oxide:

          Saw a recent clinical study done in Spain with Vitamin D.
          Very positive. Even more positive than the expected. If I recall (small sample) no one who got huge amounts of vitamin D died.
          Without the Vit. D maybe 13%? Can recall but you can find on You Tube or Bing it. Several articles and videos.

  5. ‘Now investors and property managers are looking at massive downturns with no sustained or sustainable sections of market to prop up their positions.’

    Greedheads gonna grieve.

  7. ‘I can’t even do that now — and it’s my property. I can’t do nothing with it.’

    The eviction moratoriums have summarily handed over the rights and privileges of ownership to the tenants, standing centuries of property law on its head.

    If I were a landlord, I’d be scouring my copy of the U.S. Constitution for any evidence that this is a proper role of government.

    1. If I were a landlord, I’d be scouring my copy of the U.S. Constitution for any evidence that this is a proper role of government.

      Good luck. We’ve gone China, where the govt can do whatever the fawk it wants.

      1. where the govt can do whatever the fawk it wants. The USSC has repeatedly ruled in favor of allowing the federal government to do whatever it wants as long as the feds claim there is some kind of national emergency to justify it. Look into the abrogation of “gold clauses” in contracts in 1933 and the case of Korematsu vs USA in 1944 or so.

    2. Landlords will most likely prevail in court, eventually. Unfortunately it will be too late for many. They’re best course of action is for them to negotiate with their tenants. A scorched earth response by landlords is going to burn everybody.

      1. The LLs are already getting burned. And how many of those tenants just thumbed their nose at the LL instead of paying the rent with their $2400 of monthly cheese? They should be burned too.

        1. I wonder if there will be any consequences for the deadbeats? Will their credit score be wrecked and will it affect their ability to rent after they are eventually evicted?

          It also occurs to me that if LL’s aren’t getting paid, they won’t fix anything. If they elevator conks out, enjoy the new work out. As Han Solo once said: we’re gonna be thinner.

          2. It also occurs to me that if LL’s aren’t getting paid, they won’t fix anything.

            Which means the paying tenants will move out and the landlords won’t be able to rent those out and they’ll be stuck with just nonpayers.

      2. “most likely”

        So, is that 95%, or 51%?

        Future investment in multi-family real estate is contingent upon the answer.

  8. It’s stunning to see people fall for the realtor lies over and over again….. as housing prices drop like a rock.

    Bedford, MA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Boston Area Sellers Stamp Their Feet In Frustration

    https://www.movoto.com/bedford-ma/market-trends/

    As a real estate economist said, “If you want to sell a house, you better slash prices by double digits… and keep slashing.”

  9. Archive dot is link to the Washington Post — As wildfire smoke becomes a part of life on the West Coast, so do its health risks:

    “As record-setting wildfires continue to burn up and down the West Coast, the numbers are still hard to comprehend. More than 5 million acres burned. At least 33 people dead. One month of destruction.

    Stemming from climate change and land management practices, the fires are also having a massive impact on people far from any actual flames. Massive plumes of smoke have converged and covered almost the entire western edge of the United States. It has drifted into the neighboring states of Nevada and Arizona, lowering air quality in some parts. And smoke has even blotted out the sun thousands of miles away in D.C.

    The haze along the West Coast has created the most polluted air in the world over the past week, forcing millions of residents indoors. The Bay Area has had a record run of bad air days, with residents being advised to avoid generating additional pollution for nearly a month. Air filters and purifiers have largely been sold out, and some people are buying personal air-quality devices to use in their homes. Some have put towels around their door frames and windows. Going outdoors is dangerous for even healthy lungs, and exercising has largely been out of the question.”

    http://archive.is/Gnf7B

    1. A former coworker has an older home, no central air. Last week was still in the mid 90s, and they couldn’t operate their window mounted AC units or main swamp cooler since they both draw-in outside air; they literally had to “sweat it out.”

        1. I have a HEPA furnace filter taped to a box fan in my woodshop. According to my air quality monitor, it gives surprisingly good results.

        1. That’s a good point. I’ve never had one myself; spoiled? He said they had to block the entire window on the outside with garbage can baggies. Ditto for the swamp cooler on the roof, but they have a fitted winter cover for it.

      3. I have one of those big Aprilaire air filters, which I replace twice a year. I just replaced it, early. Even though the fires here haven’t been as bad as on the coast, the old filter was dirty, dirtier than I have ever seen it. Usually it looks light gray when I replace it. It almost looked charcoal gray this time.

        A quick looksie online shows that Home Cheapo and Blowes have plenty of filters in stock locally.

  10. Prediction :

    Rents in NY, SF and LA will drop to reasonable levels in the next 12 months. After that, people who left will move back causing rents to drop in the secondary markets to which they are now evacuating.

    1. “…After that, people who left will move back…”

      Motivated by what? Poop and needles in the street? Significant percentages of small businesses closed down? Bankrupt local governments?

      What am I missing?

      2. I don’t know, but when my boss figured out I was eating lunch in Maine yesterday during the morning meeting in CA he wasn’t happy even though he said I could work from anywhere for now. When people start stressing they start wanting to control everything. He definitely wants me back close to the office. I just need to squeeze out a couple more weeks so I can take the route I want to take on the way back.

        2. When I participated in video conferencing back in the days of working from the boat, I used a very specific neutral background or disabled the video. It irks some people if you are enjoying too much.

          1. When I participated in video conferencing back in the days of working from the boat, I used a very specific neutral background or disabled the video. It irks some people if you are enjoying too much.

            Apparently so. I made a bad assumption that our group was tighter and higher trust than we apparently actually are, and showed it on purpose for a laugh like you would do with a tight group of friends. But I do tend to give the benefit of the doubt a bit too much, it’s just how I’m wired. I’ll be more careful going forward. As it is maybe nobody complained but my boss is just paranoid because the pressure is on for the current project at the moment.

          2. A former boss of mine grew-up an avid hunter. He said that he wouldn’t join the NRA out of fear that his name would appear on a political hit list and result in a job loss.

          1. I was just down in the corner across the water from Portsmouth so the family could say they’d been in Maine. Today I’m in an RV park in New Jersey looking across the water at the 9/11 building. Took a boat ride around Ellis Island and the Statue of Liberty before west coast school and work started.

        5. What advantage does the boss gain from having you nearby physically? Wondering if my wife and I could squeeze in a little working travel after the fires die out with stays in hotels equipped with wi-fi along the way to stay on top of assignments…could be interesting!

          1. It doesn’t have to be rational. If the boss thinks that one of his reports is suddenly enjoying life much more than he can, it can easily get petty in a heartbeat.

            I tell you guys things here that I make a point not to mention to the people I work with, like the fact I collect more in royalties every month than I (or they for the most part) make in salary. You might think they would be happy for me, but 98% of the time, it invokes jealousy to some degree, which colors future interactions.

          2. What advantage does the boss gain from having you nearby physically?

            In this case there is some physical work that happens in the building. We have technicians to do it and there is a company tradition of “all hands on deck” when things get a little crazy. I just received my authorization to go into the building this week and some of the people (not in my immediate group) getting snagged for “all hands on deck” sorts of shenanigans were in that meeting. It’s getting a little more political than practical at the moment. I’m busy enough that I probably wouldn’t be going in yet even if I were there. But it might happen sooner if I were there.

          3. You might think they would be happy for me, but 98% of the time, it invokes jealousy to some degree

            Hahah :-). It’s human nature. I gotta admit as somebody who’s had a LOT of options and RSUs that never amounted to anything it stings a little to see it work out well for somebody. ESPP was the only thing I ever made any side money on in my tech career.

          4. Let me tell you my sad, sad story about having a nice 5 digit number of options with a strike price under a dollar at some company that makes operating systems and game consoles. You’d think I would have been set for a while, but between my ex-wife, the stock going nowhere for 8 years, really bad “personal wealth advisors” at Merrill Lynch and my ex-wife (listed twice for a reason), I wound up deep in the red seven years later.

          5. a nice 5 digit number of options

            When receiving a stock award. m\y employer used to give us the choice between RSU’s and options (you would get 4x as many options). Now, you just get RSU’s.

      3. Life in Podunk towns doesn’t suit a lot of people. If they don’t return to NYC, LA, or SF they’ll go to second tier cities.

        1. A lot of those second tier cities have the same problems. Remember when San Diego had a hepatitis outbreak and was washing the sidewalks with bleach?

        2. Life in Podunk towns doesn’t suit a lot of people.

          True. But there are many different flavors of podunk. I think if city slickers tried them all they might find one they like.

        3. There are many big city transplants in our small town, population was 7,700 at the 2010 census, and we are 1-hr away from 35,000 at the 2010 census. For many, the initial desire was for mom to raise the children at home rather than a day care facility. These days, I’m sure many are just priced out of the metro areas.

  12. COVID-19 emails from Nashville mayor’s office show disturbing revelation

    ‘Glover says this is Metro Nashville orchestrating a cover up. “They are fabricating information,” Glover said. “They’ve blown there entire credibility Dennis. Its gone, I don’t trust a thing they say going forward …nothing.”

    ‘Glover says he has been contacted by an endless stream of downtown bartenders, waitresses and restaurant owners asking why would officials not release these numbers?’

    “We raised taxes 34 percent and put hundreds literally thousands of people out of work that are now worried about losing their homes, their apartments…and we did it on bogus data. That should be illegal,” Glover said.’

    ‘Again, FOX 17 News wasn’t told by the mayor’s office this wasn’t true. We were told to file a freedom of information act request.’

    ‘Which allows us now to ask the question, why are you keeping this from us? Why would you even want to? Its just the real numbers and what could possibly be an honorable motive?’

    https://fox17.com/news/local/covid-19-emails-from-nashville-mayors-office-show-disturbing-revelation

    They did all this on purpose.

    1. This is why we can’t trust elected people in situations like this. Not only will they likely make poor choices, they will lie and put hundreds of thousands out of work to further a political agenda. What’s been happening is more than sick, and yes it is illegal.

      1. In Hawaii it was strategic – give the people a paid vacation, courtesy of Uncle Sam. Heard an interview today of the former mayor of Oahu who is now a rep for the tourist industry and he said he cant understand why Hawaii officials are dragging their feet on reopening. He hinted that the government and the hotel unions are colluding to get those federal goodies.

        60K tested recently, 266 positive. They dont say how many were sick or required hospitalization but I bet its single digits. It got into an elder care facility for veterans so theres been a few deaths every day for a while but thats it. Makes you wonder if they pulled a Cuomo and deliberately put an infected person in that facility to pump the numbers up.

          1. Yep, it was Mufi. He specifically stated that the non-union hotels and their workers were not backing a continued shutdown of tourism. I thought he was a shoo-in for getting reelected as mayor but the powers that be have found a bigger stooge in Amamiya (sp?).

      2. “they will lie and put hundreds of thousands out of work to further a political agenda”

        Covid-19 Testing 1,000-times Too Sensitive?

        Kip Hansen / 1 week ago September 7, 2020

        According to a report in the NY Times: “In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.”

        So, in the Mad Mad Mad World of Covid Madness, they are not only reporting Covid Deaths that are not caused by Covid; they are not only reporting all positive tests as “New Covid Cases” despite lack of illness and totally ignoring the known false positive rate; they are reporting numbers for “positive tests” that are known to be anywhere from 100 to 1,000 times too high.

        One only wishes that this report had come from some nut-case conspiracy theory web site. But the Times has sourced the story well – even though it runs counter to the Times’ usual panic-driven editorial narrative on the Covid Pandemic.

        Had this come from any less powerful source, Tweety, Facepalm, and Goggles would have suppressed the facts immediately, labeling it “Misinformation”.

        Welcome to the world of Medicine-in-Support-of-Politics.

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/07/covid-19-testing-1000-times-too-sensitive/

        1. ‘One only wishes that this report had come from some nut-case conspiracy theory web site’

          What a strange thing to say.

          1. “What a strange thing to say.”

            I could be wrong but I think the he is saying if it came from “some nut-case conspiracy theory web site” it wouldn’t be true and wouldn’t have “put hundreds of thousands out of work to further a political agenda”.

    2. They did all this on purpose.

      Of course they did. “Orange man bad,” you know. Orange man much worse than 50 million newly unemployed, broke and hopeless.

      Tennessee Lookout reporter Nate Rau asks, “The figure you gave of ‘more than 80’ does lead to a natural question: If there have been over 20,000 positive cases of COVID-19 in Davidson and only 80 or so are traced to restaurants and bars, doesn’t that mean restaurants and bars aren’t a very big problem?”

      Health department official Brian Todd asked five health department officials, “Please advise how you recommend I respond. “

      1. The natural answer is that the bars are still dangerous and it’s the contact tracing which is the very big problem.

        Why can’t the health officials figure this out? I’m following this only loosely and even I can figure this out. Of course, the answer is that nobody can be allowed to admit that contact tracing doesn’t work here.

        Libs are so glib when they say “testing and contact tracing.” But contact tracing only works if you have only symptomatic transmission, a near-instantaneous test, and a very low bar for “contact.” COVID has neither. Asymptomatic carriers are not tested so they are never traced, and a definition of “contact” is being within 6 feet of someone for 15 minutes.

        The so-called “contact tracing” in other countries was not really contact tracing of individuals. When a case was found in migrant labor housing in Singapore(?), they didn’t bother to trace individuals. They don’t even know who was infected. They had to assume the infected person, whoever it was, had infected everyone and they had to treat the entire housing as a case. That’s how useless contract tracing is.

        Right now there are only two paths to stop this virus:
        1) at-home 15-minute testing of everybody, at least every other day, with mandatory self-isolation of infectious, and preferably an at-home treatment.
        2) herd immunity, likely by slow burn flattening of the curve with a vaccine to immunize the rest.

        Nobody wants to admit this, but after 6 months, this is where we are.

        1. after 6 months, this is where we are.

          In Sweden, they didn’t accept the narrative, didn’t lock down, didn’t lots of things. Their numbers are average. They didn’t die more than anyone else and their hair wasn’t on fire.

  13. How bout them falling housing prices….. How bout it.

    Christiana, TN Housing Prices Crater 23% YOY As Nashville Suburbs And Rural South Housing Prices Drop Like A Rock

    https://www.zillow.com/christiana-tn/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted market maker commented, “I wouldn’t pay a nickel for a house right now. Not with the way the bottom fell out of the market.”

  14. “‘A lot of people will be able to start new businesses,’ says Soutendijk. ‘I thought I was going to have to live in Columbus, Ohio, because I can only pay $1,200 a month in rent —well, good news, that two-bedroom in the East Village that used to be four grand is now $2,600.’”

    Right. Are high asset prices good? Not for the future.

    Those one bedrooms are going for $1,800 or less. Or not going for $1,800 or less.

  15. “Federal regulators no longer require banks to list troubled loans on their balance sheets for as long as the borrower is getting Covid-19-related debt relief. Regulators don’t share information on these loans with the public.”

    Systematically hiding losses is a great way to scare off investors who don’t want to become the next generation of reaped muppets.

  16. Supply chain delays increasing?

    just got delay notifications today of both the freezer ordered back in July, and the inergy flex battery systems. The inergytek guys went into detail how LG is going ‘whoops’ on their ability to make batteries, and they are trying to second source with Samsung (it’s a big deal NOT to use no-name chinese batteries).

    Anyone else noticing any new delays/supply problems?

    1. I haven’t made any major purchase during the pandemic. The trivial things I order on Amazon or other online places seem to arrive quickly.

    1. If they weren’t Fox News anchors, they would be dancing at your neighborhood “adult” club. Everyone who watches Fox knows this is true.

    2. @newtgingrich correctly points out that George Soros threw an unprecedented amount of money into DA races all over the country to elect radicals and Fox News basically told him to shut up. WTF?

      Because George is part of the big club, that’s why. Billionaires own this mothertrucker, and don’t ever forget it.

  18. Santa Monica public station KCRW-FM is eliminating 28 jobs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The station is expecting a 30% reduction in its operating budget due to a big drop in corporate sponsorships.
    https://twitter.com/wemakeKCRW/status/1306011011460272128

    of course last year Influential public radio station KCRW has finally left the basement and entered its new home: a sparkling, 34,000-square-foot, three-story $21.7 million glass structure on the campus of Santa Monica College https://variety.com/2019/music/news/kcrw-npr-station-santa-monica-photos-1203168946/

  19. In Singapore there are only 27 deaths in over 57,000 cases. I think this is more representative of the true lethality of the virus.

    1. Economics
      China Housing May Have Hit ‘Potentially Precarious Peak,’ Harvard’s Rogoff Argues
      Bloomberg News
      August 17, 2020, 2:33 AM PDT
      Corrected August 17, 2020, 1:37 PM PDT
      Motorists travel past residential buildings under construction in Ningde, Fujian province, China.
      Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
      China’s real estate sector may have peaked and will likely become a drag on growth during economic shocks such as the current pandemic, a recent report co-authored by Kenneth Rogoff argues

      The decades-long housing boom has causes both prices and supply to be misaligned and the market may have hit “a potentially precarious peak,” according to the working paper by Harvard University’s Rogoff and Yang Yuanchen of Tsinghua University in Beijing. Housing is still unlikely to be the trigger for an imminent financial crisis due to regulatory protections like high down payments, they wrote.

      Both the household income and demographic growth that supported the boom have slowed recently and the downward trend is expected to continue, argues the paper, which was published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in the U.S.

      China’s over-reliance on the sector and its strong links to other industries such as furnishings and leasing services mean the effect of a drop in housing activity could be amplified across the economy. Real estate and its related industries contributed roughly 29% of China’s gross domestic product, the paper estimates.

      “We find that a 20% fall in real-estate activity could lead to a 5%-10% fall in GDP, even without amplification from a banking crisis, or accounting for the importance of real estate as collateral,” it said.
      …

    2. Luckily none of the issues that Rogoff’s paper raises for China are concerns here in the U.S., as we have regulatory safeguards in place like high down payment requirements and prudent credit underwriting standards to ensure that only those who are likely to repay their mortgage loans can qualify.

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