thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

They’re Selling And A Lot Of Them Are Selling Just To Get Out

A report from NBC 2. “The housing market has slowed considerably this winter, a time when sales increase in Southwest Florida. It seems to have gone from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market almost overnight. Currently, in Lee County alone, there are more than 6,000 properties up for sale and many of the property owners have had to slash their prices in order to sell. Dan Durham of North Fort Myers had his home built in 2006. Seventeen years later, he decided to sell it after his home and flood insurance combined have more than doubled to nearly $7,000 a year. That is a likely reason that few people are biting on it in the 55+ community in North Fort Myers. ‘It’s been on the market for almost a solid year. We’ve had quite a few people look at it, but no one has made an offer,’ Durham said.”

“Durham and his wife even dropped the original asking price on the home, which sustained very little damage during Hurricane Ian. ‘We’re making the decision to leave because of the situation with the hurricane. The insurance is going up,’ Durham said. More than 50 of his neighbors are selling their homes in the community, too. Realtor Claudia Springgay represents many of them. ‘I advertise properties all over the country. But even then, it’s become very difficult to find buyers,’ Springgay said. Zillow reports nearly 30% of homes listed in Naples cut prices, while 27% of homes selling in Cape Coral dropped prices. ‘There are a lot of homes for sale. If you need to sell it quick you need to be more aggressive on the price,’ Springgay said. Something Durham may have to consider if his home doesn’t sell soon. ‘We’re just looking for someone to come by, make us an offer and maybe negotiate or whatever,’ Durham concluded.”

WINK in Florida. “Is a condo overlooking downtown Fort Myers worth $1,300 a month in HOA fees? Dennis Adams thinks so. Many Condo owners, like Adams, are having difficulty selling their units. ‘It’s a premium unit,’ Adams said. ‘It used to be one of the models, and I’ve upgraded it tremendously.’ He, and other condo owners at High Point Place, are having a hard time convincing buyers. ‘The condo fees like any complex in the tri-county area,’ Adams said. ‘They’re too high.'”

“‘Fees went up two times almost,’ said DeeDee Adams, owner of a Commodore II condo. High Point’s monthly fees went from $830 in 2021 to $1,300 in 2023. Commodore II condos’ fees increased from $488 to $799 each month. Some can’t afford it anymore. ‘The snowbirds can’t afford the fee,’ said Dennis. ‘They’re selling their unit, and a lot of them are selling it just to get out.’ Although they’re trying, people are also having a hard time selling. ‘I’ve had open houses,’ Dennis said. “We’ve advertised, but no traffic.’ ‘No one wants to write a contract,’ said DeeDee. ‘They get hung up because of the fees that have to be paid here.’

From Unilad. “A New York landlord has found his property torched by squatters after moving his tenants out to carry out renovations. Landlord Zafar Iqbal, who works for the Metropolitan Transport Authority, bought the Dyker Heights property for $1.1 million back in 2017. He has claimed he’s now paying $6,000 a month in mortgage and struggling financially because the home invaders ‘keep coming back’. In New York squatters can claim residence in a property after occupying it for 30 days. After this they can no longer be prosecuted for trespassing and the matter is dealt with in civil courts.”

“Back in November Iqbal was notified that the property had caught fire, telling the New York Post: ‘I got a call from the fire department that the house is burnt out. Somebody got in there and torched my house. That’s when I found out it was a squatter living there. The squatters have more rights than the homeowners. I’m the owner of the house. How much more can I do? I need help. I don’t make that type of money and I’m paying all that money out of my pocket,’ Iqbal admitted. ‘This is costing me. It’s not right.'”

NBC on California. “San Diego is known for its million-dollar views of the Pacific Ocean, and while it’s pretty to look, at some Ocean Beach residents say they’re worried coastal erosion could seriously impact their condo complex. ‘When I moved in, the bluff was eroding right in front of our complex,’ said Russ Rasmussen, a resident of Oceanus in OB. For the past four months, residents say, they’ve been trying to address the erosion that backs up to the edge of their street. ‘Our seawall is holding the bluff just fine, but the property next to our property, the city property at the end of Bermuda, is eroding to the tune of 60, 70 feet of dirt, of earth,’ Rasmussen said.”

“City officials, however, maintain that coastal bluff erosion isn’t causing issues for any currently maintained public improvements. However, it is affecting Oceanus next door. They say the property was assessed in January, and there were no hazards to the complex, a determination the condo owners disagree with. In the meantime, Rasmussen and other owners at the complex said they’re frustrated and want the city to help pay for the fix, and fast. ‘Our building can’t fall into the ocean,’ Rasmussen said. ‘I don’t know what else to say except: Help.'”

CBS on California. “San Francisco has been having a rough time adjusting to its post-pandemic reality. The rise of remote and hybrid work has emptied out parts of downtown, and it’s having a ripple effect across the city. Sajj Mediterranean has been at the corner of Pine and Belden in the Financial District since 2018. Manager Nancy Madrigal says when they first snagged this location, they were ecstatic. ‘This was store number four, so it was pretty busy,’ said Madrigal. Nancy said they would have lines out the door during the weekday lunch rush. But then, of course, the pandemic hit. Even all these years later since the peak of COVID the crowds just aren’t coming back. ‘Out of the five days we might have two good days,’ said Madrigal.”

“Sajj isn’t alone. Many businesses continue to struggle, especially those downtown. The trend towards remote work has gutted many high-rises in the area, taking away a huge chunk of these restaurants’ clientele.”

The Real Deal on Illinois. “A luxury St. Regis condo sale turned out to be a loss for the seller. Buyers whose identities have not been disclosed paid $7 million for the 6,100-square-foot condo spanning the entire 78th floor of the St. Regis tower, at 363 East Wacker Drive, Crain’s reported. The condo underwent several price chops, most recently getting lowered to $7.6 million in November. The couple also tried to rent out the space in 2022, seeking $50,000 a month. Even though buyers at this level rarely use mortgages to buy property, opting for all-cash deals, the city’s luxury condo market has also been stymied by reduced vibrancy in the downtown area since the pandemic. Despite luxury Chicago condos often selling for less than when they last changed hands, there’s been several notable high-end deals to start the year.”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “As the market scrambles to prepare for changes in the way most residential real estate is bought and sold, people who served in the military, earning the right to a low-cost Veterans’ Affairs loan, may have to forgo the protection of a real estate agent’s representation. They prohibit buyers from paying their agents or rolling agent fees into the loan. ‘A VA loan, just like an FHA loan, is what is needed for a lot of first-time home buyers because they’re just starting out and don’t have deep pockets,’ said Paul J. Cervone, a Lamacchia Realty agent who specializes in working with veterans. ‘They don’t have an extra $10,000 or more for a down payment. They can’t wrap my fee into the loan. They can’t take a closing-cost contribution from a seller and use that to pay a buyer’s agent.'”

Fox 10 in Arizona. “No one was hurt when a large fire broke out overnight in southwest Phoenix at a neighborhood under construction. The flames sparked just before 11:30 p.m. on April 7 near 59th Avenue and Baseline Road. When firefighters arrived, they found multiple apartments under construction burning. At least 15 units under construction were wiped out. ‘That number could go to 20, so we’re out here looking at is there multiple ignition sources? Was it man caused? Was this an accident?’ said Cpt. Rob McDade with the Phoenix Fire Department. ‘We had our accelerant detecting dog out here, Sunny, looking for any hits. We’ll collect that information, they’ll bring it down to the lab to be analyzed.’ We asked whether any utilities were hooked up at the site, and Cpt. McDade said there were no utilities that were running, and there was no natural gas in the area.”

Kelowna Now in Canada. “Hmmmm….The Kelowna housing market was supposed to be on an early-spring tear. However, the latest data shows home prices in the city slipped in March. Last month, the benchmark selling price of a typical single-family home dipped below $1 million again — $986,600 to be exact — down from $1,009,100 in February. The record-high benchmark was $1,131,800 in April 2022 as the market boomed post-pandemic before runaway inflation, higher mortgage interest rates and jittery consumers forced a downturn in housing sales and prices.”

“For townhouses, there were 60 sales in the Central Okanagan in March, up from 41 in February. However, the benchmark price didn’t follow that hike with the typically selling price for a townhouse at $719,600 last month, down from $754,900 in February. The townhouse benchmark peaked at $829,000 in May 2022. Speaking of record-highs, for typical condos that was $557,700 in April 2022. Since then, the benchmark has slid and juttered and was $496,000 last month, down from $508,600 in February.”

Soo Today in Canada. “The insolvent out-of-town landlords affiliated with SID Developments have been asked to produce information on properties directly or indirectly owned by them as part of ongoing insolvency proceedings as they continue to restructure their business operations in the face of a multi-million dollar debt. KSV Restructuring Inc. — the court-appointed monitor overseeing the insolvency of 11 SID-affiliated corporations under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) — has expressed ‘significant concerns’ in recent court filings about the potential for dissipation of assets that may have been acquired with funds borrowed by nearly a dozen corporations helmed by Dylan Suitor, Aruba Butt and Ryan Molony.”

“That concern was exacerbated when the monitor learned through a SooToday article that Butt is currently trying to sell off four properties in Sault Ste. Marie acquired by Zack Files Real Estate, a corporation named after the sci-fi television series starring SID Developments founder and chief executive officer Robert ‘Robby’ Clark. Most notably, 134 Gore Street — which was overrun by squatters and without running water for weeks during the summer of 2022 due to people entering the building and stripping it of its copper piping — has dropped in price from $1.1 million to $799,000.”

“As first reported by SooToday, the directors behind 11 insolvent corporations — Butt, Molony and Suitor — filed for protection from creditors in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice in late January, claiming they owe approximately $147 million in unpaid loans and have less than $100,000 in the bank amid rising interest rates and falling home prices.”

The Daily Express. “The 10 worst places to buy a property in Europe have been revealed and it is not good news for France and Germany. According to the House Price Index, an indicator by Eurostat, eight countries in Europe reported falling house prices for the final three months of 2023. As per the data, house prices in Germany saw a drop of 7.1 percent while Finland saw a fall of 4.4 percent. Similarly, house prices in France saw a drop of 2.7 percent, while Latvia’s prices slid 2.5 percent. But one of the countries that witnessed the hardest hit is Luxembourg where the house prices slumped 14.4 percent.”

From ABC News. “It’s a battle of good versus evil: the builder versus the Sydney establishment. This is the truth – according to Jean Nassif. Sitting in an upmarket Beirut restaurant, Australia’s most notorious developer says he’s been hunted from his home. In unsubstantiated claims, he blames a collective of high-profile, powerful Sydney identities who he says campaigned to destroy his empire and harassed him. He also alleges that Lebanese gang members tried to extort him. ‘I’m the number one developer builder on the face of the Earth. I made it on my own and I did become number one. They didn’t like it,’ Nassif says.”

“It’s been more than a year since Nassif left Australia for Lebanon, just as his Toplace development and construction empire came crashing down. In 2022, the building licences for Nassif and Toplace were revoked after a series of serious issues were found at the developer’s Atmosphere and Skyview apartments in Castle Hill and the Vicinity apartments in Canterbury. In June 2023, NSW Police issued an arrest warrant for Nassif over an alleged ‘large-scale’ fraud. And the next month, Toplace was placed into administration, with its debts now estimated to be more than $600 million.”

“Michael and Jenna Jones have an expansive view over the Cooks River and the park below from their apartment at Nassif’s Vicinity development in Canterbury. It was the first home they’d ever bought, and they moved in just before Jenna gave birth to the first of their two children. Michael and Jenna say they’re now in a state of despair – they fear they’ve lost their life savings and in the meantime they’re struggling to keep up with the cost of remedial works at the building. He says many owners will simply not be able to pay for the full rectification works that are estimated to cost up to $50 million. ‘A lot of these owners here, they’re already doing two, three jobs just to keep on top of all the strata fees and levies. So the idea that everybody is going to be able to front these bills. Absolutely impossible. There’s going to be people that are going to default on their loans,’ he says.”

The Strait Times. “Unsold units at The Residences at W Singapore Sentosa Cove will be up for sale at more than 40 per cent off their initial launch price in 2010. Cityview Place Holdings – an associate of City Developments (CDL), which is the developer of the 228-unit upscale condominium – will be releasing 58 units for sale on April 15, with prices starting from $1,648 per square foot (psf). The 99-year leasehold condominium, which is part of the W hotel brand, was launched for sale during the property peak in 2010. Back then, its two- to four-bedroom units and penthouses, with sizes from 1,227 sq ft to 6,297 sq ft, were priced from $2,500 psf to $3,000 psf. But sales of condo units in Sentosa were hit by a series of property cooling measures introduced from 2010.”

“Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) data showed only 20 caveated transactions for the development to date – all in 2010 – with just five units resold from 2012 to 2023. Prices of condos in Sentosa Cove – aimed at the ultra-rich with its resort-living lifestyle – tumbled by about 40 per cent from 2010 to a median price of $1,394 psf in 2020. Ms Tricia Song, CBRE head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia, expects transaction volumes in the Singapore luxury residential market to remain subdued in the first half of 2024. She attributed the continued softening of sentiment to economic uncertainties, cooling measures and ongoing money laundering investigations. ‘In addition, despite stable rental yields, some owners may be compelled to put up their properties for sale due to the rise in property tax bills for high-value properties,’ said Ms Song.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 82 Comments

    2. The Jerk – That’s All I Need! (1979)

      Navin R. Johnson: Well I’m gonna to go then! And I don’t need any of this. I don’t need this stuff, and I don’t need *you*. I don’t need anything. Except this.
      [picks up an ashtray]

      Navin R. Johnson: And that’s the only thing I need is *this*. I don’t need this or this. Just this ashtray… And this paddle game. – The ashtray and the paddle game and that’s all I need… And this remote control. – The ashtray, the paddle game, and the remote control, and that’s all I need… And these matches. – The ashtray, and these matches, and the remote control, and the paddle ball… And this lamp. – The ashtray, this paddle game, and the remote control, and the lamp, and that’s all *I* need. And that’s *all* I need too. I don’t need one other thing, not one… I need this. – The paddle game and the chair, and the remote control, and the matches for sure. Well what are you looking at? What do you think I’m some kind of a jerk or something! – And this. That’s all I need.
      [walking outside]

      Navin R. Johnson: The ashtray, the remote control, the paddle game, and this magazine, and the chair.

      Navin R. Johnson: [outside now] And I don’t need one other thing, except my dog.

      [Shithead growls at him]
      Navin R. Johnson: I don’t need my dog.

  2. ‘There are a lot of homes for sale. If you need to sell it quick you need to be more aggressive on the price,’ Springgay said. Something Durham may have to consider if his home doesn’t sell soon. ‘We’re just looking for someone to come by, make us an offer and maybe negotiate or whatever’

    Wait a dog gone minute Dan, are you thinking about giving it away?

    1. And if you don’t sell it quick you’re gonna have to be more aggressive on that price. Chasing the market down is such a hoot!

  3. Dan Durham of North Fort Myers had his home built in 2006. Seventeen years later, he decided to sell it after his home and flood insurance combined have more than doubled to nearly $7,000 a year. That is a likely reason that few people are biting on it in the 55+ community in North Fort Myers. ‘It’s been on the market for almost a solid year. We’ve had quite a few people look at it, but no one has made an offer,’ Durham said.”
    Florida is finished

    1. We’ve had quite a few people look at it, but no one has made an offer

      As some here like to say, some sawin’ and slashin’ is needed. And too many will chase the market down rather than discount it enough for a quick sale. Those higher interest rates and insurance premiums are here to stay. The happy days of 3% mortgage rates are not coming back.

      1. You find your most recent comps and then price 5% under that. When it really accelerates on the down side you price 10% under. Most don’t have the fortitude to do this and pay dearly. I watched so many lose their a$$es doing this last time around. They kept repricing down at current market.

        1. As the previous crash was beginning a relative was trying to sell his shanty. There was competition on his street and nothing was selling. I advised him to saw and slash.

          His realtor said to not do that. He listened to me and he had an offer within a week. As he had already bought the next house, because the new job was 150 miles away, he was relieved to unload it, though he did think he was “giving it away at 5% off”. He kept in touch with a neighbor and he found out that his old nabe saw a 30% decline, which meant he would have needed to bring a check to closing, instead of getting one. He later thanked me.

          But yeah, the fear of leaving money on the table is very real, and paralyzes people.

      2. See this doesn’t make any sense. I was confidently told that nobody would ever give up their 3% mortgage.

  4. ‘A VA loan, just like an FHA loan, is what is needed for a lot of first-time home buyers because they’re just starting out and don’t have deep pockets…They don’t have an extra $10,000 or more for a down payment. They can’t wrap my fee into the loan. They can’t take a closing-cost contribution from a seller and use that to pay a buyer’s agent’

    What Paul said is what I’ve been pointing out. This isn’t just the agent fee, it’s everything: down payment and closing costs. An over 100% loan.

    Sound lending! And it’s been happening all over the US for many years.

      1. I suppose that when the foreclosures start piling up the 100% financing will take its leave.

    2. An over 100% loan.

      At my last position I used to see loan level data and the 100+% LTV loan was not “uncommon”. There were Not over huge number but almost every month you would see a couple.

  5. ‘We’re just looking for someone to come by, make us an offer and maybe negotiate or whatever,’ Durham concluded.”

    Let us know how that works out for ya, Greedhead Dan.

  6. ‘It’s a premium unit,’ Adams said. ‘It used to be one of the models, and I’ve upgraded it tremendously.’

    If it’s such a great deal, why don’t you want to stay there, Dennis?

    1. ‘The condo fees like any complex in the tri-county area,’ Adams said. ‘They’re too high.’”
      He sounds younger than a boomer. Maybe there are going to be a lot of homeless people of all ages.

  7. “A luxury St. Regis condo sale turned out to be a loss for the seller.

    Die, speculator scum.

    1. Home prices have risen 423% in 40 years, fueling economic discontent
      Marketplace
      Mitchell Hartman
      Apr 9, 2024
      Heard on:
      This is not the first time America has dealt with rapid, destabilizing price increases, says Thomas Stapleford, economic historian at the University of Notre Dame.
      Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

      We’ve been dealing with high inflation in this economy over the last several years, with everything from groceries to new vehicles to construction supplies soaring in price.

      But for one item in particular — houses — we’ve seen such sharp inflation over decades that it’s starting to change the landscape of American economic life. What happens in society, and in history, when costs for basic necessities, like shelter and food, shoot up in price?

      Let’s start by going back four decades, to 1984. The movie “Ghostbusters” was a blockbuster that year. And the median price of a new home wasn’t so scary: $79,900 in the fourth quarter of 1984, according to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

      Since then, consumer prices overall have risen 203%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics information and analysis section. Meanwhile, the median price of a new home was $417,700 in the fourth quarter of 2023. That works out to an inflation rate of 423%.

      “There’s no question that the cost of a house has gone up relative to cost of living overall,” said Christopher Mayer, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia Business School. “More and more, a single-family home has become a luxury good, which has not been the case in the United States until now. It’s a trend that, if it continues, I think will change society substantially.”
      …
      https://www.marketplace.org/2024/04/09/home-prices-inflation-fueling-economic-discontent/

    1. Watch
      Jamie Dimon: Bank boss warns US interest rates could rise to 8%
      1 hour ago
      By Chris Newlands,Business reporter, BBC News
      Getty Images Jamie Dimon
      Getty Images

      The boss of one of the world’s biggest banks has warned US interest rates could climb to 8%.

      Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase, said his bank has prepared for interest rates to jump because of “persistent inflationary pressures”.

      Central banks around the world have been busy raising rates in a bid to dampen rising prices.

      But with US inflation gradually easing, the overwhelming expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year.

      Markets are pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts in 2024.

      In his annual letter to shareholders, Mr Dimon said that the bank was ready for a “very broad range” of rates, from 2% to 8% or even higher, potentially pushed up because of high government spending and the need to curb price rises.

      Mr Dimon’s comments come as US interest rates rest in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% – higher than they have been for more than 20 years.
      …
      https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68769561

      1. The boss of one of the world’s biggest banks has warned US interest rates could climb to 8%.

        But, but, but inflation is contained! While my checkbook disagrees, the government assures me that it is under control.

        1. When they say inflation is under control, they are talking about future price increases. Past price increases that are hammering your check book are locked in, as deflation is Fed kryptonite to be avoided at all costs.

          1. They’ve been saying it’s under control for over a year.

            They also say that anyone who thinks they were better off 4 years ago is misinformed.

            All they do is gaslight.

          2. Exactly, past price increases are not coming down, barring a severe recession with unemployment, especially of the office worker class, in the double digits. If future price increases are going up at 3 to 3.5% every year, how does that translate to wage increase of the said office workers?
            IMO, companies will shed workers to maintain their bottom line and/or raise prices. At some point something has to give.
            I am surprised that the Fed has managed to stealth QE thus far with little impact on private sector jobs.

    2. Forbes
      Business
      Breaking
      Jamie Dimon—Head Of U.S.’ Largest Bank—Warns Of 8% Interest Rates Along With Recession
      Derek Saul
      Forbes Staff
      I cover and analyze daily happenings in financial markets.
      Apr 8, 2024, 09:58am EDT

      Topline

      A chilly scenario for the U.S. economy, in which interest rates climb as high as 8% as the effects of the unprecedented monetary policy taken to combat inflation take hold, is still very much on the table, according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

      The odds of a goldilocks soft landing outcome for the economy are “a lot lower” than the consensus of a 70% to 80% likelihood, Dimon outlined in his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders Monday.

      Coupled with Dimon’s concerns about the potential for “stagflation,” a recession characterized by lingering high inflation, he warned interest rates could soar to “8% or even more,” a far cry from the already 22-year high rates of over 5% and going against conventional wisdom of a looming decline in rates (U.S. interest rates have not been 8% or higher since 1990).

      Dimon explained there are several “persistent inflationary pressures” which could keep price increases sticky, including the rise in military conflict globally and the lingering effects of aggressive policy from central banks worldwide coming out of the pandemic.

      The billionaire Dimon also warned about the potential for carnage for both equity and debt investors should a higher-rate scenario play out, noting stock valuations are already at their “high end” and credit conditions are “extremely tight.”

      Key Background

      Dimon’s warnings come as investor sentiment looks rosy—major stock indexes sit at record highs as the market eagerly awaits lower interest rates.
      …
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/04/08/jamie-dimon-head-of-us-largest-bank-warns-of-8-interest-rates-along-with-recession/?sh=25acf3b85718

    3. Financial Times
      US interest rates
      Investors lose hope of rapid US interest rate cuts this year
      Markets price in more than two quarter-point cuts, compared with more than six expected at start of 2024
      The Federal Reserve building
      Stronger than expected jobs figures on Friday prompted Fed officials to warn that it was too soon for the central bank to start cutting rates
      Mary McDougall in London and Jennifer Hughes in New York yesterday

      Investors are further reducing their bets on interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year, as strong economic data boosts conviction that the central bank will need to keep borrowing costs higher to cool inflation.

      Markets are pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 and only a 50 per cent likelihood of a third, in a drastic reversal from the start of the year when between six and seven cuts were expected.

      “We’re having a number of clients ask us, ‘why is the Fed going to cut rates at all?’ That’s really picked up over the last month or so,” said Evan Brown, portfolio manager and head of multi-asset strategy at UBS Asset Management. “With the economy this strong, policy isn’t as restrictive as the Fed thinks it is.”
      …

    5. Economy
      A crucial report Wednesday is expected to show little progress against inflation
      Published Tue, Apr 9 2024 4:11 PM EDT
      Updated 3 Hours Ago
      Jeff Cox

      WATCH LIVE
      KEY POINTS

      – The consumer price index will be released Wednesday morning and is expected to register increases of 0.3% both for the all-items measure as well as core.

      – On a year-over-year basis that would put respective inflation rates at 3.4% and 3.7%.

      – Markets have grown nervous about the state of inflation and how it will affect Fed policy.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/04/09/a-crucial-report-wednesday-is-expected-to-show-little-progress-against-inflation.html

    6. Financial Times
      US interest rates
      Bridgewater’s Bob Prince says Fed rate-cutting hopes are ‘off track’
      Influential investor says US inflation and growth are not at levels where interest rates can fall
      Bob Prince said he saw ‘no reason to move out of cash into longer-term bonds at the moment’
      Kate Duguid in New York
      5 hours ago

      Persistent inflation and hot US growth have left the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting hopes “off track”, Bridgewater’s Bob Prince said on Tuesday, adding an influential voice to the growing chorus asking whether US rates will start to fall this year.

      “So far, this year is not transpiring the way that the Fed — or interest rate markets — have described. I think it is clear the Fed is off-track now. The question is how far off track,” Prince, the $112.5bn hedge fund’s co-chief investment officer, told the Financial Times.

      His comments came as Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic told Yahoo News that if progress on inflation stalls and economic growth remains strong, it is possible the US central bank may not cut interest rates at all this year. Bostic is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

      Investing giant Vanguard last month said that it no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates this year, while JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon in his annual shareholder letter this week said government stimulus could mean rates and inflation stay higher than markets were expecting.

      Traders in the futures market have cut their expectations of how many rate cuts the Fed will make this year, from six or seven in January to between two and three as inflation data has come in hotter than expected.

      The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday will release consumer price inflation data for March, which could further sway investor expectations. Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast a tick-up in the headline rate to 3.4 per cent, with the core rate dipping to 3.7 per cent.

      After raising interest rates to the highest level in 23 years, the Fed indicated at the end of last year that it was done. In their December dot plot — a survey of officials’ expectations for inflation, growth and interest rates — Fed members indicated they saw growth and inflation slowing, and accordingly expected three quarter-point cuts to rates this year.

      Despite stronger than expected inflation figures since then, the Fed’s March dot plot reaffirmed its expectations of three cuts, even as officials raised their outlook for inflation and growth this year.

      “The Summary of Economic Projections is an if/then statement. If inflation and growth are at certain levels, then interest rates can be lowered. None of the ifs are true right now,” said Prince.
      …

  15. Rasmussen and other owners at the complex said they’re frustrated and want the city to help pay for the fix, and fast. ‘Our building can’t fall into the ocean,’ Rasmussen said. ‘I don’t know what else to say except: Help.’”
    In all seriousness, why should everyone else pay for your decisions/choices? After all, i am sure you bragged to everyone how important and rich you were since you were living on the ocean.

    Privatize the profits and socialize the losses right.

    1. I do believe that any cursory inspection would have revealed that this condo unit is in fact up against the ocean.

    1. Top comment: “Hitler is always described as the epitome of evil, but Stalin made Hitler look like a choirboy, and Mao made Stalin look like a Sunday school teacher.”

  19. A reader sent these in:

    ❖ Tesla’s Cybertrucks were ‘rushed out,’ are malfunctioning at astounding rate

    Tesla’s long-delayed — and pricey — Cybertrucks are getting panned by furious owners for malfunctioning at an alarming rate just months after Elon Musk’s futuristic vehicle hit the road.

    Tales of the stainless steel Cybertrucks dying after traveling just 1 mile, randomly hard-breaking on a wide-open road and already beginning to corrode, among other gripes, were shared in the Tesla Owners’ Club forum.

    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1777377812753625306

    New California bill would make illegal migrants eligible for FIRST time homebuyer loans and help with down payment. 🚨🚨🚨🔊

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1777197245433024763

    Man apparently gets his car stolen and woman gets hit by a car during a Bay Bridge street takeover.

    Hundreds of people gathered and blocked traffic so they could do donuts in the middle of the street.

    One man got beaten and then appeared to have his car stolen as a mob of clowns surrounded him and kicked him out of his own car.

    The woman who was hit was reportedly a 20-year-old from Pittsburg and suffered a broken ankle. The footage on the bridge reportedly happened around 3:15am.

    https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1777128555274735712

    The average price of a used Tesla has declined 21 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $31,391 today. That’s a 54% decline.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1777344639101493625

    When you see an office building that previously sold for $183,000,000 sell for $54,000,000 but you don’t hear who took that hit and there’s no bankruptcy involved… good chance it was a pension fund.

    https://twitter.com/CXCarroll/status/1776965252837499057

    McDonald’s Workers Beat Man Up For Jumping Over The Counter

    https://twitter.com/crazyclips_/status/1777124199565271458

    Gave him a McAsswhoopin to go

    https://twitter.com/Dibble_Gaming/status/1777169403731140782

    Wow – more than 1 in 8 households expect they’ll be unable to make even minimum payments on their debts over the next 3 months – that’s the highest level since tens of millions lost their jobs during gov’t-imposed lockdowns in ’20. Probably nothing…

    https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1777400727679185137

    I’m tired of saying it
    The problem isn’t Wall Street it’s Walt down the street.

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1777331056326123630

    The Fed has recklessly encouraged the financialization of single family homes for more than 15 years. With no apparent legal authority from Congress. This has destabilized American society and destroyed countless families. They still refuse to sell, allowing only small runoffs.

    https://twitter.com/FixTheFed/status/1777136852853485993

    AvenueOne – a technology platform that enables institutions to buy single family homes – is laying off 40% of its workforce

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1777424007886749795

    Antara Capital, a $1.3 billion dollar fund backed by Blackstone, has frozen its hard-to-sell assets from redemptions after piling on huge losses

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1777356201807810921

    Konica Minolta will eliminate 2,400 employees in large cost cutting push

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1777346966176854060

    Increase in US debt since Feb 21, 2023: $3.1 trillion.

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1777288550402130123

    Once again… there is no debt “forgiveness”. It’s simply a transfer of debt onto taxpayers who have no loans or have already paid theirs back. It is debt reassignment based on politics. It’s a politician buying votes at the expense of other people.

    https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1777333798927007973

    We supposedly have “full employment” and a record number of jobs, but 1 in 8 families won’t be able to make minimum payments on things like credit cards in the next three months. If it’s this bad right now, what happens when a recession hits and people get laid off.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1777403354320142376

    Stellantis is reportedly laying off around 900 additional employees in the coming months as they downsize their footprint in the United States amid slowing sales and rising vehicle inventories

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1777455207867195460

    A WSJ analysis found that a commonly purchased basket of supermarket goods has increased in price by 36.5% over the past 4 years (+8.1% per year). This is much higher than the US Government CPI figures which show food price inflation of 25.2% over the last 4 years (+5.8%/year).

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1776217022877106407

    1. Konica Minolta will eliminate 2,400 employees in large cost cutting push

      I had a job offer from them many years ago. They wanted me to take a pay cut. Since I wasn’t desperate I politely declined

    3. “A WSJ analysis found that a commonly purchased basket of supermarket goods has increased in price by 36.5% over the past 4 years”

      I trust the Wall Street Journal more than I would ever trust the government’s phony statistics.

    4. “When you see an office building that previously sold for $183,000,000 sell for $54,000,000 but you don’t hear who took that hit and there’s no bankruptcy involved… good chance it was a pension fund.”

      Or an insurance company’s annuity fund.

  20. We are in deep sh#t if these people are not stopped and punished.

    The Post Millennial
    @TPostMillennial

    Former FBI and now contracting officer for the CIA reveals how there were FBI agents in the crowd on J6 and brags about how the agency helped others sue Alex Jones for defamation.

    Video from
    @SoundInvestig

    https://x.com/TPostMillennial/status/1777705866289914023

    1. After watching the entire video there is really nothing to punish this loose lipped “agent” for.

      These gay guys sure seem to fall for this undercover stuff very easily though, must be tough being a G.

      1. ‘there is really nothing to punish this loose lipped “agent” for’

        I disagree. The CIA isn’t legally allowed to target US citizens. And if this is what he admits, what do they really get up to? It’s illegal to tap phones etc, unless you have a court authorization. They are obviously ignoring the law. And how many children disappear in the US every year, while these a$$hats go after ‘influencers’ who he admits have broke no laws? For that alone the entire bunch should be publicly hung.

        1. That would be a good start. Let’s schedule some more 3 letter agencies for later in the day.

  21. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and its partners uncovered signs that the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines might cause the persistent condition called tinnitus but never disclosed the findings to the public, The Epoch Times can report.

    The signs were found while analyzing data from the CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), which has been described as one of the stronger CDC surveillance systems because it utilizes health care records.

    The detection of the signs came just after the CDC told a reporter that there were no signs of large numbers of cases of tinnitus, which commonly manifests as a constant ringing in the head, following COVID-19 vaccination, documents obtained by The Epoch Times show.

    The CDC never updated the reporter, whose story reported that the CDC had not found a clustering of cases.

    The CDC declined to comment.

    The documents “prove that they were aware of a safety signal of tinnitus after the COVID-19 shots as early as 2022,” Dr. Joel Wallskog, co-chair of the advocacy group React19, told The Epoch Times via email. “However, to my knowledge, this safety signal was never communicated to the public and no further epidemiological study on tinnitus in VSD was ever completed.”

    The Epoch Times obtained the documents through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request.

    Previous requests have yielded other evidence the CDC knew about possible safety problems with the COVID-19 vaccines but did not alert the public. That includes the detection in May 2022 of a safety signal for tinnitus and the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, in an analysis of data from another CDC system, which is based on reports filed by doctors and others.

    “As time passes and more FOIA requests are executed, how many more safety signals will we learn about that the CDC knew about years ago? When does this nightmare end? When will the American public know the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Is the CDC evil or incompetent? Or maybe both,” Dr. Wallskog added.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/exclusive-cdc-hid-finding-of-possible-link-between-covid-vaccines-and-tinnitus-5624340

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Benzinga
      Charlie Munger Said, ‘Find A Way To Get Your Hands On $100,000’ Even If It Means Walking Everywhere — The Magic Number If You Want To Be Rich
      Jeannine Mancini
      Tue, Apr 9, 2024, 7:00 AM PDT3 min read
      In this article:

      Charlie Munger, the man who served as legendary investor Warren Buffett’s right-hand man for decades, died in December, just shy of his 100th birthday. Buffett credits him as the “architect” of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and referred to him as “part older brother, part loving father.” Munger is renowned for his insightful and often blunt advice.

      One piece of wisdom that resonates with investors is his take on building wealth. In the late 1990s, during a shareholder meeting, Munger said, “The first $100,000 is a b****, but you gotta do it.”

      This statement emphasizes the initial hurdle many face in accumulating savings. Munger’s bluntness highlights the challenge of reaching that critical first $100,000.

      “I don’t care what you have to do,” he said. “If it means walking everywhere and not eating anything that wasn’t purchased with a coupon, find a way to get your hands on $100,000.”

      The reason behind Munger’s focus on this initial amount? The power of compounding. Once you have that base, the path to greater wealth becomes smoother. With compounding returns, $100,000 can grow significantly over time, providing a strong foundation for long-term financial goals.

      “After that, you can ease off the gas a little bit,” he said.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-said-way-hands-140014519.html

      1. This is one of the few things Munger said that I agree with. The first $100k was hard but the next few million was a piece of cake.

        Thank God for all of those coupons.

  23. ‘The housing market has slowed considerably this winter, a time when sales increase in Southwest Florida. It seems to have gone from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market almost overnight’

    Was it like somebody flipped a switch?

  24. ‘bought the Dyker Heights property for $1.1 million back in 2017. He has claimed he’s now paying $6,000 a month in mortgage and struggling financially because the home invaders ‘keep coming back’….’How much more can I do? I need help. I don’t make that type of money and I’m paying all that money out of my pocket,’ Iqbal admitted. ‘This is costing me. It’s not right’

    2017 Zafar? You should have plenty of equity. You could borrow against it to get you through. Unless you already did that.

  25. ‘Rasmussen and other owners at the complex said they’re frustrated and want the city to help pay for the fix, and fast. ‘Our building can’t fall into the ocean,’ Rasmussen said. ‘I don’t know what else to say except: Help’

    First of all Russ, if it can’t fall, good fer you. If ‘it can’t fall cuz Russ will be screwed.’ That’s a tricky question and you should certainly seek the advice of a used shack salesperson. But negotiate!

  26. ‘Most notably, 134 Gore Street — which was overrun by squatters and without running water for weeks during the summer of 2022 due to people entering the building and stripping it of its copper piping — has dropped in price from $1.1 million to $799,000’

    ‘As first reported by SooToday, the directors behind 11 insolvent corporations — Butt, Molony and Suitor — filed for protection from creditors in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice in late January, claiming they owe approximately $147 million in unpaid loans and have less than $100,000 in the bank amid rising interest rates and falling home prices’

    Again guys, great a$$ pounding. Bravo!

  27. ‘Unsold units at The Residences at W Singapore Sentosa Cove will be up for sale at more than 40 per cent off their initial launch price in 2010’

    They don’t care how much they fook you in Singapore.

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Benzinga
      Newsom’s ‘California Dream’ Faces $26K ‘Cost-of-living Penalty,’ Homelessness Director Flees High-Cost State After Another Eviction
      Caleb Naysmith
      Tue, Apr 9, 2024, 2:00 PM PDT
      3 min read

      California’s state website highlights what it describes as the “California Dream,” defined as “the idea that every person can achieve a better life, regardless of where they start out.”

      But it’s becoming increasingly hard for California residents to afford the state’s high costs.

      According to a recent study by the nonpartisan Transparency Foundation, a family earning $130,000 per year faces an estimated “Cost of California” penalty of $26,478 compared to if they paid the national average for different cost-of-living categories.

      The $130,000 in annual earnings is defined in the study as California’s middle class. For those earning less, it’s not just the cost-of-living penalty residents have to worry about — it’s whether they can afford to live in California at all. A piece from the Los Angeles Times highlights one example.

      Nathan Sheets, director of the homelessness services organization The Center in Hollywood, has been served his second eviction notice in three years.

      Citing an affordability crisis and lack of housing security, Sheets is giving up California for good, taking his family back to lower-cost Indiana and leaving his job helping the homeless in California.

      Sheets notes the irony, writing, “If we can’t afford to live here ourselves, we can’t help the unhoused population we want to serve.”

      California’s reputation as a high-cost-of-living state has been bolstered lately, with gas prices now at $5.32 per gallon compared to the $3.59 national average, according to AAA, and a recent bump in the minimum wage to $20 per hour for fast food workers.

      Rising costs are also impacting utility bills. After the California Public Utilities Commission approved another rate hike, California-based utility company PG&E Corp. (NYSE:PCG) will again raise prices for residents’ electricity and gas bills after increasing them just a few months ago.

      Customers who have an average residential utility bill of $254 in 2023 are now set to pay new monthly bills of around $292.

      The high cost of living pushing the California dream out of reach for residents is not a new phenomenon. For the fourth straight year, California topped the nation with the largest amount of net outbound movers, according to data from U-Haul.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/newsoms-california-dream-faces-26k-210014260.html

    2. California outmigration highest in U.S. as state faces $68 billion deficit
      By Kenneth Schrupp | The Center Square Dec 19, 2023
      TCS California Sunset
      The sun sets over Ventura, California in 2016. Photo: Wikimedia Commons/Jeff Turner.
      Wikimedia Commons/Jeff Turner

      (The Center Square) – California experienced the highest outmigration of any state in the nation, a major threat to the state’s fiscal future as it faces a $68 billion budget deficit and declining tax revenues.

      New Census Bureau data says a net total of 338,371 Americans left the Golden State in 2023 compared to those moving in from other states, eating into tax revenues and representing a 2% increase in outmigration over the prior year. The state already faces a $26 billion revenue shortfall for the current 2023-2024 fiscal year, partially due to what the state legislative analyst’s office says is a recession that started in March of 2023.

      Though California had the highest outmigration, New York came first overall for population decline, as California brought in twice the international immigrants New York did and experienced more than double the births. In proportional terms, New York, which has half the population California does, had two-thirds California’s level of outmigration, leading to the state’s higher overall decline in population.

      S&P, which recently reduced its outlook for California’s general obligation bonds from “positive” to “stable,” also noted in a separate report that outmigration accelerated by cost increases could, “absent the state’s ability to adapt by cutting expenditures…lead to credit quality deterioration.”

      Polling from the Public Policy Institute of California has found that the state’s housing costs — the primary driver of the state’s cost of living — make 45% of residents consider moving out of the state. California maintains a 4.5 million home housing shortage as regulations limit the production of housing.
      …
      https://www.thecentersquare.com/california/article_ac988176-9ebb-11ee-9a3b-bbbada5f24b0.html

      1. And to make matters worse, it’s producers who are leaving, while the number of takers just keeps growing.

      2. I seem to remember in 2008 that California was so cash starved they couldn’t even afford to pay out tax refunds. I think I waited six months for mine that year.

        They’re going to get hammered when the next recession comes along.

  30. Are you missing out on the latest California gold rush, paid for courtesy of taxpaying citizens who have yet to flee California?

    1. Yahoo News
      Sacramento Bee
      Opinion
      California faces an unemployment insurance disaster. Newsom has no easy way out | Opinion
      Thomas Savidge
      Mon, April 8, 2024 at 6:00 AM PDT
      3 min read

      When California published its fiscal year 2022 audited financial statements nearly a year late this March, buried within the document was an admission that the state is still struggling with unemployment insurance fraud from pandemic spending programs.

      California estimates that from July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2023, improper unemployment insurance payments totaled $6.08 billion — an overpayment rate of 20.1%, more than double the allowable rate of improper payments by federal law.

      To understand how California got into this mess, it’s important to look at federal pandemic unemployment programs. During that time, the federal government increased unemployment insurance benefits and relaxed conditions for receiving them. Applicants no longer needed to be actively seeking work and did not need to prove they left work due to an “employer action” such as a layoff.

      It was a gold rush. In addition to regular unemployment insurance payments, recipients received a bonus payment of $600 per week until July 31, 2020, and then a $300 per week bonus payment through September 2021. Two unemployed parents with two dependent children in California could receive unemployment insurance benefits equivalent to an annual salary of $109,062 during the duration of the program.

      This led the state to some of the highest unemployment rates in America. The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that California was one of the easiest states to access unemployment insurance during the pandemic, with 83% of all applicants (about a tenth of California adults) successfully receiving benefits. Research shows that recipients are likely to wait to get back to work until just before these benefits run out.

      Furthermore, these unemployment insurance benefits are exempt from state income taxes. So, not only did participants receive generous benefits from the taxpayers, they also didn’t contribute any tax revenues to the state coffers. Millions of able-bodied adults in California who should have been working opted instead to live on the taxpayer dime. Even worse, foreign nationals were able to steal millions of dollars from the program.
      …
      https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-faces-unemployment-insurance-disaster-130000821.html

      1. The problem for Newsum is that those that are getting the 6 billion in unemployment fraud, are his constituency, along with the $20 dollar an hour, unemployed burger flippers.

    2. I am missing out, left 6 years ago. As the number of tax payers diminishes, the greater the appetite for confiscation of the citizens wealth. Eventually, they will go after everyone, I think Prop 13 is on the hit list and will eventually get dismantled, and then the manure will collide with the propellors, mewhahahahahaha

Comments are closed.