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The Dollars And Cents Aren’t Necessarily There For A Lot Of Investors Right Now

A report from the Ahwatukee Foothills News in Arizona. “Building permits for single-family homes are rebounding this year in Maricopa and Pinal counties, according to The Cromford Report’s analysis of the first seven months of data, and the city of Phoenix is riding the wave.Don’t look at the East Valley for any rebound. Referring to its own index based on sales trends of the last four months, the Cromford Report said sellers’ position has soured in much of the East Valley, particularly Chandler and Tempe. ‘One concern is that the cities with the most positive change are relatively small,’ it said. ‘The largest markets like Phoenix and Mesa are still declining and Scottsdale is only showing a minor gain of 2%. This means our 1.2% average gain is not as significant as it might otherwise be.’ ‘While the positive trend exists, it is still so weak that a breath of wind could blow it over,’ it added.”

“The Cromford Report has frequently noted that new-home sales this year have been overtaking re-sales. Last week, it said, ‘The re-sale market has been much weaker than the new home market and year-to-date closing volumes are down from 2023.’ It said re-sale closings totaled 45,937 as of June 30 – down 4% from the first six months of last year. ‘We do not often see the new home and re-sale markets so disconnected from each other,’ the Cromford Report said.”

The Center Square. “A new Florida condominium law is affecting the Sunshine State’s real estate market. The new measure requires costly inspections, significantly increasing homeowners’ costs. ‘The big pullback in the condo market is the rising insurance costs and new laws that require buildings to have full reserves by next year. Prices are pulling back, because nobody can afford the association fees anymore,’ Jennifer Levin, a realtor with Compass in Fort Lauderdale told Realtor.com. Data shows that total active condo listings in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties increased from 8,497 listings in the first quarter of 2023 to 20,293 listings by the second quarter of 2024. The report notes that in the second quarter of 2024, 7,961 condos listed for sale in Miami-Dade were over 30 years old. Broward has approximately 5,166 condo listings over 30 years old, while Palm Beach has 4,669. Less than 1,000 condos across all three counties were less than 10 years old.”

The Real Deal on Texas. “Two Dallas—Fort Worth area homes are about to be seized by feds, who claim the properties were purchased with money made through a ‘Ponzi-type’ scheme. A group was investigated for generating $138 million from clients under the guise of making a profit buying and selling international bonds. Instead of investing the funds, the group used the money to pay previous investors and for their own purposes, the complaint alleges. Destiny Hunter LLC purchased the Heath property in May 2024 with a $1.94 million mortgage from AMGT Capital LLC, loan documents show. In June, Destiny Hunter also secured a $721,000 mortgage for 10 Sunset Trail in Rockwall, a $417,000 mortgage for 4321 Soaring Star Lane in Mesquite and a $239,000 mortgage for 1215 Paladao Drive, also in Mesquite. AMGT was the lender for all three loans. Prosecutors are asking the district court to forfeit the Fort Worth and Heath properties.”

The Real Deal on California. “A San Francisco crowdfunder with a history of financial crimes defrauded investors out of millions of dollars by misappropriating funds as his firm was bleeding cash, a recent complaint by the Securities and Exchange Commission alleges. Bernardo Mendia-Alcaraz, who heads Toltec Capital, allegedly told investors their capital would fund loans to residential real estate buyers and developers. Instead, he paid himself and other investors, in what the SEC characterizes as a ponzi-like scheme. The 52-year-old crowdfunder inflated his resume to lure investors.”

“Between 2019 and 2023, Mendia solicited over $3 million from 41 investors by marketing himself as a ‘well-educated’ professional with a ‘long track record of success,’ the complaint reads. He flaunted ‘academic credentials’ from the Godman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. In truth, Mendia never went to UC Berkeley and was held in a California detention center during the 2008 financial crisis for previous alleged financial crimes. He had also filed for bankruptcy six times in 2019, the same year he started raising money for the Toltec funds. The SEC alleges Mendia guaranteed investors fixed returns — another red flag of fraud — if they sunk money into his real estate funds. But the crowdfunder couldn’t deliver.”

“When investors asked when returns were coming, Mendia would peg delays on accounting problems and promise payments would arrive soon. In one instance, Mendia convinced two investors to extend their contract when he struggled to deliver. At the time, Toltec’s accounts had a negative balance, the SEC claims. Meanwhile, Mendia had been plugging those shortfalls with funds from other investors, a glaring sign of a ponzi scheme. The fraudulent scheme is the latest to come to light in recent weeks. In July, the SEC charged a Southern California investor with misappropriating funds raised to fix and flip homes. The investor had spent the money on a Mercedes-Benz, a Mexico vacation and paid off his home mortgage.”

From Bloomberg. “San Francisco has long celebrated its progressive values and immigration sanctuary policies. A deadly fentanyl crisis is testing its commitment to those ideals. Open-air drug markets dot a downtown already struggling to recover from the pandemic. A record number of people died from overdoses last year. Faced with a deepening emergency, city leaders have quietly embraced a controversial tactic to combat the epidemic: deportation. More than 100 people, mostly undocumented immigrants, have been charged in a federal crackdown on San Francisco’s open-air drug markets since last year, according to a review of cases and data from the US Attorney for the Northern District of California. Those prosecuted under the program are often given a stark choice between risking lengthy prison sentences or pleading guilty, which avoids major prison time and frequently leads them to face deportation proceedings.”

“Street store, has complained to city officials about open-air drug markets, streets in disarray, and an assault on an employee, according to e-mails obtained through a public records request. ‘Everyday people are using drugs,’ Ricardo Tapia, an Ingka operations manager, wrote in a May e-mail to San Francisco police and a nonprofit group. Some people clashed with customers or garbage trucks; others started fires or tried to ‘sneak into our dock while tenants receive their deliveries.’ The road ‘smelled terrible’ due to human waste on the building’s exit doors. The conditions were leading to revenue loss, Tapia said.”

“Matt Dorsey, a San Francisco supervisor who is sober after struggling with his own drug addiction, said the city is seeing a ‘realignment of urban politics that is more centered and rooted in public order and public safety.’ ‘We can’t have disorder and unchecked drug markets going on because we’re adhering to some larger principle of ‘we don’t want to do something that Donald Trump is going to point to and say he likes,’ Dorsey said. ‘And if cities are to succeed, we Democrats have to be trusted to govern.'”

From Fox 5. “Experts are warning that some affordable housing developers in the District are on the verge of collapse. Now, lawmakers say it’s time to crack down on one of the key factors at the root of the problem: tenants not paying their rent. According to insiders, affordable housing properties in Washington, D.C., could face closures in the coming months, potentially leaving thousands of residents without a home. This looming crisis has largely flown under the radar. Industry analysts predict that more than 20,000 affordable housing units in D.C. are at risk of foreclosure. Shirley Thompson Wright, a resident of Meadow Green Courts for over 25 years, voiced her concerns. ‘We have issues with mold, mice, rats, roaches, and the owners becoming slumlords,’ Wright said. ‘We live here with no security. The owners say they can’t pay for security. The buildings are falling apart, and they cannot invest in anything.'”

The St. Catharines Standard in Canada. “It was unclear to real estate experts exactly what the August market would bring. Yet, in Niagara, it was still somewhat surprising to see a drop across all statistics — with benchmark price, sales and listings dipping in both monthly and annual figures. Year-over-year, the benchmark price fell 3.3 per cent, to $640,200 from $662,300 in August 2023; and the days it took to sell a home increased to 45 days (from 33), an increase of 36.4 per cent. At its peak in March 2022, Niagara’s benchmark price hit $815,900. From there, the price declined, bounced back and dipped — January saw Niagara’s lowest number since February 2021, when the benchmark price was $591,600 — before steadying around the $600,000 mark.”

“Looking at August numbers, Niagara has seen a total decrease of about $175,000 since 2022. But its numbers remain $200,000 higher than pre-pandemic — the region’s benchmark price hovered around $430,000 in early-2020. An analysis by Wahi last month said the median price of a Niagara home was $662,000 in the second quarter of 2024, about 1.9 per cent lower from the same time a year ago. However, the median price remains up a ‘staggering 42.4 per cent since 2020, indicating much of the pandemic run-up prices remain intact.'”

The Toronto Sun in Canada. “While Toronto’s once red-hot condominium investment market has slowed down to a gentle simmer with no prospects things will improve any time soon, opportunities do still exist. Ryan Coyle, co-founder of Toronto-based Connect.ca Realty, a real estate brokerage that specializes in investment strategies, says buyers have more leverage today than they have for much of the last 15 years — provided they look in the right places. ‘There’s a ton of assignments out there,’ Coyle said. ‘I recently bought one at Nobu Residences, that was at 2017 prices, after the purchaser couldn’t close on the unit because they couldn’t qualify for a mortgage.'”

“Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reveals a surplus of condo supply. There were 17,400 condo rentals reported through the MLS last quarter, increasing by 25.2 per cent from Q2-2023, while rents for one-bedroom units fell by 3.1 per cent to $2,452. Coyle added that cash-strapped investors aren’t the only ones flipping assignments. ‘There are deals out there like the one I got — it ended up helping the seller, but I got a great deal too,’ he said, adding ‘even people who can close are selling on the resale market, because while they can close, they can’t afford the payments.'”

“The problem for condo investors is that, between maintenance fees and mortgage rates, carrying costs leave them in the red. This is especially true for unit-owners in buildings registered no later than November 15, 2018, which are rent-controlled. ‘These people are paying interest rates in excess of six, seven per cent, and the yearly rent increase is about three per cent, but many of them struggle finding qualified renters,’ said Leah Zlatkin, a mortgage broker. Zlatkin points to research from the Canadian Housing Statistics Program indicating 43 per cent of Toronto condos are investor owned. ‘The dollars and cents aren’t necessarily there for a lot of condo investors right now,’ she says.”

“Families comprise a growing share of the rental pool, but Zlatkin added most inventory on the secondary rental market is insufficiently sized. ‘[Families] can’t fit into these 400-, 500-, 600-sq. ft condos when it’s two adults and kids,’ she continued. ‘And the people who can afford to buy these units need more room than a condo offers them.'”

ABC News in Australia. “Have some people forgotten? When Philip Lowe’s tenure as Reserve Bank governor was winding down last year, he had some things to say about monetary policy. On numerous occasions, he said there were probably better ways to manage inflation and we should spend time thinking about them. In his final speech to the Anika Foundation, he even floated the idea of giving an independent institution limited powers over new fiscal instruments so it could help to manage inflation alongside the RBA, in ways that would spread the burden of inflation control much more evenly across the community. ‘[G]iven the limitations of monetary policy … you know, what we’re doing affects people very unevenly, I think we should aspire to kind of something better,’ he said.”

“Tim Hext, the head of government bond strategies at Pendal Group, recently argued that monetary policy was being asked to operate in a very different environment than in the past. ‘In fact, monetary policy is now more than ever a wealth redistribution policy within Australia, not just an economic policy,’ he wrote. By ‘wealth redistribution,’ he’s talking about the way in which wealth is redistributed away from the young and poor, towards the wealthy.”

“That’s not to let the RBA off the hook, either. Plenty of economists have criticised the RBA for the mistakes it’s made in recent years, including its stuff-up with its forward guidance in the lockdown period, and its tardiness in lifting rates once inflation took off. Why did it take the RBA Board until a few weeks before the federal election in May 2022 to start lifting rates, when headline inflation had already jumped above 5 per cent?”

From Mises.org. “One of the myths being endlessly repeated in this inflationary cycle is the myth that rising prices are caused by greed. For example, Democratic senator Bob Casey is running around Pennsylvania campaigning on the idea while claiming he’ll solve the problem if you re-elect him. Kamala Harris is doing the same. But the fact that greed doesn’t cause inflation is obvious if we just ask why prices across the board have surged since 2020. Since then, consumer prices rose more than twenty percent, knocking off about a fourth of the value of every dollar you hold.”

“Is that all because greed suddenly got worse after 2020 for some unknown reason? And, if so, why is it that greed was magically barely a problem at all for many years during the last decade when official CPI inflation rates often came in between 1 and 2 percent? There is no explanation for this greed thesis, and the reason is that there is only one cause of generally rising prices— the thing we could call price inflation. The only cause of this is monetary inflation—that is, a rising money supply. Or, as sometimes stated more casually: printing new money.”

“Recall how during the covid lockdowns, the government was paying people to stay home and not work. Where did this money come from? The central bank printed it. There was not money to be had from the Treasury, of course, as the federal government itself was already running huge deficits. The central bank created so much new money in fact, that the money supply has increased by 32 percent since early 2020. And nearly one quarter of all the dollars that are out there right now, were created since then. These are astounding numbers.”

“And, we can go back further than that. You want to know why stock prices and real estate prices have been going up so relentlessly for more than ten years? It’s because since 2009, when we began the age of quantitative easing, the money supply is up by 185 percent. For many years, the monetary inflation appeared primarily as rising prices in assets like housing. That’s why CPI inflation seemed ‘low’ for a long time between 2010 and 2020. But, eventually, the piper must be paid for relentless monetary expansion of the type we’ve experienced since 2009. The frenzy of money creation that occurred since 2020—and the rising prices that followed—have made this clear.”

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This Post Has 101 Comments

  1. ‘There’s a ton of assignments out there…I recently bought one at Nobu Residences, that was at 2017 prices, after the purchaser couldn’t close on the unit because they couldn’t qualify for a mortgage’

    That’s the spirit Ryan! Take yer pick of the FB’s and hammer down until you get the most desperate one.

    1. Majority of Israelis think sympathy for Gaza civilians should be censored on social media (9/5/2024):

      “Nearly 60 percent of Israelis believe social media posts showing sympathy for civilians in the Gaza Strip should be restricted, according to a poll published by Haaretz newspaper on 5 September.

      The poll was conducted in March by the Pew Research Center.

      Fifty-nine percent of Israelis “think posts expressing sympathy for civilians in Gaza should be restricted, while 41 percent think posts criticizing the government should be censored,” according to the poll.

      The poll also shows that 92 percent of Israelis believe posts inciting violence should be restricted, 87 percent say posts expressing support for Hamas must be censored, and 72 percent want graphic footage from the war removed.”

      https://thecradle.co/articles/majority-of-israelis-think-sympathy-for-gaza-civilians-should-be-censored-on-social-media

      1. All 535 members of the Republicrat duopoly, with the sole exception of Rep. Thomas Massie, have an AIPAC minder telling them how to vote. #OurDemocracy.

  3. When you’re sitting in church today, ask God to give you the will and the strength to conduct a new, second Crusades.

    Not in the Middle East, but a Crusade on Washington D.C. to remove every non Christian from that city of sin and evil.

    It’s time to take America back. The First Amendment has long been misinterpreted regarding freedom of religion.

    Christ is King.

  5. ‘In fact, monetary policy is now more than ever a wealth redistribution policy within Australia, not just an economic policy,’ he wrote.

    Central banks have one true “mandate”: to serve as the oligarchy’s chief instrument of plunder against the 99 percent.

  6. “And, we can go back further than that. You want to know why stock prices and real estate prices have been going up so relentlessly for more than ten years? It’s because since 2009, when we began the age of quantitative easing, the money supply is up by 185 percent.

    We will not have sound money, honest markets, or a future for our children as long as the criminal private banking cartel known as the Fed controls our money issuance.

    1. While agree it’s not professional looking….would it be different if a white with long hair or a pony tail be any different? Would you question it?

      1. The NTSB is (was?) a non-political, scientific agency staffed by meritocratic professionals. I was very disappointed to stumble upon this DEI nonsense.

      2. would it be different if a white with long hair or a pony tail be any different?
        He sounded very professional to me.

  9. House Republican Claims Every GOP Colleague Has an ‘AIPAC Babysitter’ Pressuring Them to Cast Pro-Israel Votes:

    “Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) told Tucker Carlson that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has designated representatives assigned to each Republican member of Congress to ensure the lawmakers vote for bills Israel supports.

    “I have Republicans, you come to me on the floor and say, ‘I wish I could vote with you today. Yours is the right vote, but I would just take too much flak back home,’” Massie stated. “And I have Republicans who come to me and say, ‘That’s wrong, what a PAC is doing to you. Let me talk to my AIPAC person.’ By the way, everybody but me has an AIPAC person.”

    “What does that mean – an AIPAC person?” Carlson asked, prompting this exchange:

    MASSIE: It’s like your babysitter. Your AIPAC babysitter who is always talking to you for AIPAC. They’re probably a constituent in your district, but they are, you know, firmly embedded in AIPAC.

    CARLSON: And every member has something like this.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-republican-claims-every-gop-colleague-has-an-aipac-babysitter-pressuring-them-to-cast-pro-israel-votes/ar-BB1nPXGP

    Keep paying those federal income taxes, cattle tax slaves.

    1. What about all the bitcoin scammers peddle their “investment advice” using Telegram numbers? Am I allowed to dislike that?

  11. Did you ever #Notice that the first two slave auction markets in North America, located in Newport, RI and Charleston, SC, were also the locations of the first two synagogues in North America?

    Globalists love to push the “cracker” narrative regarding the practice of slavery in the United States, emphasizing the Scots Irish heritage of most of those who settled in the South.

    When in fact, the majority of slave owners in the U.S. were not Christians.

    2. the Scots Irish heritage of most of those who settled in the South.

      After the English Civil War and the defeat of King Charles, many of the English royalty moved to the American South. They brought money, servants and slaves. The slave owner class was not Scotch/Irish working people or Jewish.

  12. I’ve been noticing that the latest consolation statement from real estate bears is “We’re still well above pre-pandemic levels.” Lot of good that does the speculators who bought in the last 4 years. And you better enjoy that statement while it lasts because it’s swiftly becoming a lie.

    1. It also says something about how insane the price increases were during minor respiratory illness.

      ‘At its peak in March 2022, Niagara’s benchmark price hit $815,900. From there, the price declined, bounced back and dipped — January saw Niagara’s lowest number since February 2021, when the benchmark price was $591,600 — before steadying around the $600,000 mark…Looking at August numbers, Niagara has seen a total decrease of about $175,000 since 2022. But its numbers remain $200,000 higher than pre-pandemic — the region’s benchmark price hovered around $430,000 in early-2020’

      It’s the same in New Zealand. We’re down 20% but 20% up from 2020. It’s all air boys and girls, good luck.

  13. Insane: Venezuelan Gang Members Released On $1,000 Bond After Shooting In Aurora

    by Infowars.com
    September 7th 2024, 5:01 PM

    A pair of suspected members of the notorious Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TdA) have been released on bond following their arrests related to a July shooting in Aurora, Colorado.

    Aurora police confirmed that both Nixon and Dixon posted a $1,000 bond and are no longer in custody, a move that goes directly against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which had requested detainers for the two individuals.

    Aurora Police Dept
    @AuroraPD

    AURORA POLICE DEPARTMENT CONFIRMS SUSPECT

    https://x.com/AuroraPD/status/1831476916093591694

  14. James O’Keefe
    @JamesOKeefeIII

    @OKeefeMedia has obtained Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) from the U.S. Army of the North Division, highlighting the growing presence of one of Venezuela’s largest criminal organizations in the U.S. The document states that Tren de Aragua “has established a presence in Brooklyn, Bronx, and Williamsburg, NY,”with “approximately 400 TdA members” living in these cities. The CUI also warns that TdA members in Denver “have been given a ‘green light’ to fire on or attack law enforcement,” with Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in New York receiving a similar report.

    3:15

    4:04 PM · Sep 6, 2024

    https://x.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1832147881454924153

      1. Judging by the top two videos I am assuming Haiti is not in need of any spayed/neutered programs for cats.

      2. There’s a Vance campaign ad in there somewhere. “Hey single childless cat ladies, Kamala Harris opened the borders, and now those migrants are after YOUR cats. JD will protect your precious pets by deporting these cat-eating migrants on Day 1…”

        1. and now those migrants are after YOUR cats. JD will protect your precious pets by deporting these cat-eating migrants on Day 1
          Way too funny!

  16. city leaders have quietly embraced a controversial tactic to combat the epidemic: deportation.

    ‘We can’t have disorder and unchecked drug markets going on because we’re adhering to some larger principle of ‘we don’t want to do something that DJT is going to point to and say he likes,’ Dorsey said.

    Just how murderous is TDS, as a disease? How many have died because of it? I ask this as a serious question:
    1. TDS scientists faked the research on hydroxychloroquine to make DJT look bad. That’s got to be worth at least a couple hundred thousand.
    2. Ditto for ivermectin. Could have saved millions around the world, not to mention there would be no basis to approve those vaccines on EUA.
    3. 2020 steal, leading to deadly withdrawal in Afghanistan, invasion of Ukraine. [not sure about Gaza October 7, there was already some history of that]
    4. 2020 steal leading directly to hundreds of thousands of fentanyl deaths.
    5. 2020 steal leading directly to hundreds of thousands of missing children, not sure how many of them are alive.

    What is that, at least a few million people dead because of TDS.

    1. You need to break millions of eggs to make that replacement omelette.

      If you want to see what replacement looks like, check out Hawaii, where now only 10% of the population are ethnic Hawaiians, who are even being outnumbered by Hispanics.

      This is what they want to do in the rest of the country. This is why they are quietly busing illegals into small towns across the nation, and will continue to do so indefinitely. And if you complain, you will be told that the illegals are good people who have a right to live in your town. And if you see them commit crimes you will be told it’s your imagination.

      1. X is full of stories of tiny towns being invaded by bussed-in Haitians, who are being flown in legally because Haiti is a failed state. 10K here, 20K there… The local cops can’t do anything.

        What’s next, flying in refugees from Gaza?

    1. They know that in 2017, gold bullion (physical gold) was formally recognized as only the second Tier One reserve asset by the Bank of International Settlements. The only other Tier One reserve asset is the US Dollar. The average American has NO idea — heck I had no clue until I started following Precious Metal Youtube.

      Ever since 2017 (and even before), foreign countries that had been storing their gold in London or New York asked for the gold to be shipped back and rehomed. In addition, wealthy families began stacking physical gold of their own. Russian and China are loading up like crazy, knowing that if the US dollar global reserve currency weakens and hyperinflates, they can buy their way out of any financial jam.

    1. From the Murderous WEF Website…they ADMIT to everything…

      “There have been significant developments in last five to seven years on social, environment and technology fronts that could help realise “My Carbon” initiatives for shaping the future towards smart and sustainable cities.
      Specifically, to mention three developments in this context:
      1. COVID-19 was the test of social responsibility – A huge number of unimaginable restrictions for public health were adopted by billions of citizens across the world. There were numerous examples globally of maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, mass vaccinations and acceptance of contact-tracing applications for public health, which demonstrated the core of Individual Social Responsibility…”

  21. After enduring almost a quarter-trillion dollar hit to their market value in recent months, Europe’s luxury firms may see their stock-market clout wane further as China’s downturn worsens.

    Once seen as Europe’s answer to the US “Magnificent Seven” tech megacaps, shares in companies producing high-end clothing, handbags and jewelry are languishing, sapped by a spending slump. Even more ominous are signs that China’s rich, who once flocked to upscale boutiques in Paris, Milan and Hong Kong, may not return, their appetite for pricey items extinguished by the economy’s downward spiral.

    “This year is more volatile and more painful because it comes after this excessive growth,” Flavio Cereda, an investment manager at GAM UK Ltd. said, referring to the period immediately after the pandemic when consumers liberated from lockdowns splurged on shopping and travel.

    For Britain’s iconic raincoat maker Burberry Group Plc, it’s culminating in ejection from London’s FTSE 100 stock index, with its market value down 70% in the past year. While it’s the only major brand to lose its index slot, an gauge of luxury shares compiled by Goldman Sachs has shed $240 billion in value from a March peak.

    GAM’s Cereda prefers the highest-end luxury names such as Hermes. “You don’t want to own brands that don’t have brand heat, and you don’t really want any meaningful exposure to the aspirational consumer,” he said. “And you certainly don’t want any real exposure to the aspirational consumer in China.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-luxury-shares-240-billion-080000151.html

      1. IIUC, the CCP are actively encouraging citizens to stack physical gold and silver. The citizens, burned by the real estate market, are happy to pour their savings into precious metals. Now, just wait until the CCP confiscates that gold when they need it…

  22. How Volkswagen, the symbol of German industrial brawn, skidded sideways

    Volkswagen was the world’s biggest carmaker in 2019 and its ambition was to displace Tesla as the No. 1 producer of electric vehicles. Given its heft, financial firepower and status as Germany’s biggest private employer and government-coddled global superbrand, the goal did not seem outrageous. “Volkswagen will change radically,” then-CEO Herbert Diess told shareholders. “Some of you may be rubbing your eyes in amazement. But make no mistake, the supertanker is picking up speed.”

    So was hubris. In mid-2022, Mr. Diess was chucked overboard and replaced by Oliver Blume. Since then, VW’s electric-vehicle ambitions have gone sideways, the company has lost great dollops of market share in China and the shares are down 13 per cent in the past year, giving it a market value of just less than €50-billion ($75.2-billion). Tesla is worth a dozen times as much, and Toyota has overtaken VW to become the industry’s top seller.

    This week, the unthinkable happened: For the first time in its 87-year history, VW said it was considering factory closures. Translation: They are coming.

    The news was a shock to a country that had assumed VW was a juggernaut, that the company’s technological expertise, powerful brands – among them Porsche and Audi, each backed by the “Made in Germany” badge of quality – would see the group expand forever, creating jobs all along the way, or at least not destroying the existing ones.

    Certainly, that’s what employees and successive German governments believed – and demanded. Employees occupy half the seats on the VW supervisory board, and the state of Lower Saxony controls 20 per cent of the votes in the company. No wonder VW’s bosses succumbed to pressure in 1994 to adopt a no-layoffs policy through 2029. That guarantee is being driven off the cliff by Mr. Blume.

    Sales of EVs are falling everywhere in Europe and North America. German EV sales were down 20 per cent in the first half of the year, according to HSBC – and the slowdown is probably a mild positive for VW, since it is still largely a maker of gasoline- and diesel-powered cars. Too bad the big winner in the EV crunch is hybrid cars, which combine gas engines with batteries, not regular cars. VW has few hybrids. Toyota, which bet heavily on hybrids – and took a lot of criticism for downplaying pure EVs – is thriving on hybrid sales.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-how-volkswagen-the-symbol-of-german-industrial-brawn-skidded-sideways/

    1. VW really screwed the pooch. Their ICE cars, despite their lack of reliability, were loved around the world because they were perceived as sporty plus they had the German cachet. All that goodwill was blown, first with the diesel scandal and then the mindless push to EV’s that few customers can afford. Throw in some global economic uncertainty and suddenly Japanese durability and reliability are considered sexy.

  23. Tesla Robotaxi Might Already Be Late to the Table, Is It Going To Bring Anything of Value?

    As Tesla prepares to unveil its robotaxi on October 10, there’s a heated debate over its Full Self Driving software and whether this qualifies as autonomous driving. Tesla fans point to more than one billion miles of FSD usage, which no other AV company can match. The latest FSD variants have been praised as “human-like,” although they are still unable to drive the car on their own. From time to time, FSD will try to do something stupid, requiring the human driver to remain alert and take over, which Tesla calls an “intervention.”

    Others point out that Tesla’s FSD is not autonomous driving because a driver needs to “curate” every FSD action, allowing it or taking over the steering wheel to correct it. Even though Tesla’s FSD has accumulated over a billion miles, the fact that a driver still needs to supervise it makes it a mere Level-2 autonomous driving system. I know this infuriates Tesla fans, who consider Tesla FSD superior to all Level-3 systems currently certified, including those from Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

    Although it’s unclear whether he still stands behind this statement, Elon Musk announced in 2016 that all Tesla EVs have all the hardware required to become autonomous one day when the software is ready. This made a lot of people believe that Tesla could turn all its cars into Level 5 autonomous vehicles “with the flip of a switch.” Being Level 2 is just semantics for them. What matters is that Tesla FSD could drive everywhere, whereas these certified Level-3 systems require special conditions (and locations) to work.

    However, this is how SAE classifies autonomous driving systems, and it’s not going to change until Tesla is willing to assume responsibility for whatever FSD decides during driving. Tesla acknowledged that when it changed the wording on its website and admitted the FSD software is a Level 2 autonomous driving system. This means that Tesla doesn’t want to be held responsible for whatever FSD might do wrong and prefers to blame it on the drivers.

    Seen through this lens, Tesla FSD is not technically autonomous driving. Not only because Tesla doesn’t assume liability for FSD actions, but also because not even Tesla trusts it to do the right thing consistently. The EV maker makes this very clear in the FSD description and the disclaimers Tesla owners must agree to when they activate the self-driving features.

    https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-robotaxi-might-already-be-late-to-the-table-is-it-going-to-bring-anything-of-value-239469.html

    1. I’ve seen a few Ford ads were they plug their semi autonomous driving feature: an F-150 driver lets go of the steering wheel and acts impressed. Me? I would be scared to let go of the wheel.

      Why are they pushing this garbage? Is it to justify the sky high prices?

  24. Newsom’s Big Oil special session is a big bust. Nobody manages California gasoline | Opinion

    Twenty-four years after state experts noted that low inventories of gasoline in California could lead to higher prices, Gov. Gavin Newsom has discovered the problem and launched a special legislative session to deal with it.

    Instead of a deliberative process that started years ago, the administration is cobbling together a bill at the last minute that raises more questions than answers.

    Newsom and his legislative allies want to require the state’s oil refineries to maintain more gasoline in storage so that slowdowns in production don’t cause prices to go through the roof. But it’s far from clear how quickly new petroleum infrastructure can be built in a state where environmental interests are loath to allow anything that would make gas cheaper.

    “This is a political exercise,” said Kevin Slagle, a spokesman for the Western States Petroleum Association, the voice of California’s oil industry. “We all see it.”

    This is a small taste of California’s future. The state wants to use less and less gasoline, yet always wants this industry to be reliable and immune to shortages and price spikes. But how?

    “We are going to have to take seriously the oversight of the gasoline industry as we phase it out,” said economist Severin Borenstein of UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, who has been active on the subject for a generation, including a state committee in 2017 that reviewed the same problem. “We need to seriously manage this phaseout.”

    That’s not what Newsom and the Democratically-controlled legislature are now doing. The special session called by Newsom has nothing to do with careful regulation. It has everything to do with the calendar.

    September is when California’s refineries conduct scheduled maintenance of their facilities after the busy summer. These slowdowns in gasoline production have resulted in spectacular price spikes such as the one last year. Newsom can point to the special session as proof that he is doing something to solve the problem when the legislation, devoid of implementation details, does not.

    This supply problem is partly caused by California’s decreasing petroleum infrastructure for years. California had 43 refineries in the 1980s. Now we’re down to 14, and only a fraction of those produce the bulk of the supply.

    “It’s likely impossible in California to permit any new fossil fuel infrastructure,” Slagle said. Chevron’s president estimates it would take 10 years to build a single gas tank.

    https://www.yahoo.com/newsom-big-oil-special-session-120000461.html

    1. It’s not “impossible”
      They are unwilling.

      Well so be it, hope they enjoy their choice.

      Me, I choose civilization.

  25. Canada would already be in a recession if it weren’t for huge increases in public-sector spending and employment.

    Friday’s jobs report from Statistics Canada shows that, indirectly.

    The headlines mostly focused on unemployment, which rose in August to its highest level in seven years. Not including the pandemic, unemployment is now at 6.6%, higher than at anytime since 2017. (By contrast, U.S. unemployment fell to 4.2%.)

    That’s bad enough, but the true depth of our employment crisis is masked by government hiring. Of the 94,400 thousand jobs created last month, 55% were created in the public sector. Meanwhile, of the 72,400 jobs lost, 91% were lost in the private sector.

    Canada’s public sector is booming while its private sector is shrinking. The problem is you cannot grow an economy forever on public-sector spending. It’s unsustainable.

    Last month 66,000 private-sector jobs were lost. The sectors losing the most were natural resources, utilities, building maintenance, accommodation and food services and “professional, scientific and technical services.”

    In one month alone, we lost over 16,000 professionals, scientists, researchers, lab tech and computer specialists. In a world increasingly driven by innovation and intelligence, that’s not a good trend.

    To make matters worse, the Liberals are still admitting immigrants at a rate of nearly 100,000 a month. So far this year, they have admitted 704,000, which puts us on pace for another 1.2 million intake of newcomers in 2024.

    Just in August, this influx of newcomers added 82,500 people to the workforce, in a month in which only 22,000 net new jobs were added. So far in 2024, our government has added 408,000 workers to the labour force while its economic policies have led to the creation of just 174,000 jobs, a third of which are part-time.

    You don’t have to be anti-immigration to think this math is insane. Indeed, it’s just as unfair to new Canadians to invite them into a country whose economy is stagnant and producing too few jobs for them, too.

    One particular stat that jumps out of last month’s data: This is especially hard on young Canadians. While the overall unemployment rate is 6.6%, the rate among those 15 to 24 years old is 14.5%. It’s tough finding summer jobs and first career jobs.

    For all intents and purposes, Canada is in a recession caused by lack of foreign investment, poor productivity, aging infrastructure and industrial machinery, and the attack on fossil fuels – all of which are the results of policy choices made by the Trudeau government. Their anti-business attitude has scared away investors. Their taxation policies are discouraging investment in industrial innovation and encouraging an increasing number of skilled workers to leave.

    On top of that, their out-of-control spending (federal government spending is up nearly 15% over this time last year) and high-interest policies have driven inflation up and business activity down.

    On housing affordability, inflation, investment, job creation, industrial modernization, immigration and GDP growth, the most-woke government in our history has been an unmitigated disaster.

    https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-employment-crisis-masked-by-government-hiring

    1. Canada would already be in a recession if it weren’t for huge increases in public-sector spending and employment.

      Hey, that sounds like us!

  26. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will face a fretful and strained caucus in British Columbia Monday, with MPs looking for him to finally reveal his plan to address the political purgatory the party has endured for months.

    Several Liberal MPs privately and publicly demanded they meet as a team after the devastating byelection loss of a longtime political stronghold in Toronto last June, but the prime minister refused to convene his caucus before the fall.

    Their political fortunes did not improve over the summer, and this week the Liberals took two more significant blows: the abrupt departure of the NDP from the political pact that prevented an early election, and the resignation of the Liberals’ national campaign director.

    Now, with two more byelections looming on Sept. 16 and a general election sometime in the next year, several caucus members who are still not comfortable speaking publicly told The Canadian Press they’re anxiously awaiting a game plan from the prime minister and his advisers that will help them save their seats.

    The Liberals have floundered in the polls for more than a year now as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have capitalized on countrywide concerns about inflation, the cost of living and lack of available housing.

    Wayne Long, a Liberal MP representing a New Brunswick riding, says the problem is that Canadians appear to have tuned the prime minister out.

    Long was the only Liberal member to publicly call for Trudeau’s resignation in the aftermath of the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection loss, though several other MPs expressed the same sentiment privately at the time.

    Long shared his views with the prime minister again at the Atlantic caucus retreat ahead of Monday’s meeting.

    “I’m really worried the old ‘stay calm and carry on,’ which effectively is where we are, is not going to put us on a road to victory in the next election,” said Long, who does not plan to run again.

    “If we’re going to mount a campaign that can beat Pierre Poilievre, in my opinion that campaign cannot be led by Justin Trudeau.”

    Long fears a Trudeau campaign could lead to a Poilievre government that dismantles the prime minister’s nine-year legacy, piece by piece.

    https://www.cp24.com/news/trudeau-to-face-fretful-caucus-ahead-of-return-to-the-house-1.7029617

    1. Long fears a Trudeau campaign could lead to a Poilievre government that dismantles the prime minister’s nine-year legacy, piece by piece.

      If I were Canadian voter, I would say “Hey, I’m already voting Conservative, you don’t have to convince me.”

  27. With just days to go before his first – and likely only – debate against Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump posted a warning on his social media site threatening to jail those “involved in unscrupulous behaviour” this election, which he said would be under intense scrutiny.

    “WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again,” Trump wrote, again sowing doubt about the integrity of the election, even though cheating is incredibly rare.

    “Please beware,” he went on, “that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials. Those involved in unscrupulous behaviour will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.”

    Earlier Saturday, Trump had leaned into familiar grievances about everything from his indictments to Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election as he campaigned in one of the most deeply Republican swaths of battleground Wisconsin.

    “The Harris-Biden DOJ is trying to throw me in jail – they want me in jail – for the crime of exposing their corruption,” Trump claimed at an outdoor rally at Central Wisconsin Airport, where he spoke behind a wall of bulletproof glass due to new security protocols following his July assassination attempt.

    At the rally, Trump outlined his plans to “Drain the swamp” – a throwback to his winning 2016 campaign message as he ran as an outsider challenging the status quo. Though Trump spent four years in the Oval Office, he vowed anew to “cast out the corrupt political class” if he wins again and to “cut the fat out of our government for the first time, meaningfully, in 60 years.”

    As part of that effort, he repeated his plan, announced Thursday, to create a new “Government Efficiency Commission” headed by Elon Musk that will be charged with conducting “a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government” to root out waste.

    After again maligning the Congressional committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the nation’s capitol by his supporters after his election loss in 2020, Trump told the crowd of thousands that he would “rapidly review the cases of every political prisoner unjustly victimized by the Harris regime” and sign their pardons on his first day back in office.

    And he said he would “completely overhaul” what he labelled “Kamala’s corrupt Department of Injustice.”

    “Instead of persecuting Republicans, they will focus on taking down bloodthirsty cartels, transnational gangs, and radical Islamic terrorists,” he said.

    As Trump was campaigning, Harris took a short break from debate prep to visit Penzeys Spices in Pittsburgh’s Strip District, where she bought several seasoning mixes. One customer saw the Democratic nominee and began openly weeping as Harris hugged her and said, “We’re going to be fine. We’re all in this together.”

    Harris said she was honoured to have endorsements from two major Republicans: former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, Liz Cheney, the former Wyoming congresswoman.

    During his speech, he railed against Harris in dark and ominous language, claiming that if the woman he calls “Comrade Kamala Harris gets four more years, you will be living (in) a full-blown Banana Republic” ruled by “anarchy” and “tyranny.”

    Trump also railed against the administration’s border policies, calling the Democrats’ approach “suicidal” and accusing them of having “imported murderers, child predators and serial rapists from all over the planet.”

    He dismissed warnings from U.S. officials about ongoing Russian attempts to spread disinformation ahead of November’s election, including an indictment this past week that alleged a media company linked to six conservative influencers was secretly funded by Russian state media employees.

    “The Justice Department said Russia may be involved in our elections again,” Trump told the crowd. “And, you know, the whole world laughed at it this time.”

    Sean Moon, a Tennessee musician who releases MAGA-themed rap music under the stage name, “King Bullethead,” blasted his songs from a truck in the event parking lot. As a musician, he said Trump rallies approximate the experience of a raucous concert.

    “Trump is a rock star,” Moon said. “He’s incredible. People see he represents them and the deep state trying to kill him and take him out. But he’s standing strong, and he stands for the normal person.”

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-trump-threatens-to-jail-adversaries-in-escalating-rhetoric-ahead-of/

    1. I saw that post of his, where he threatened all that jail time for any election interference. I REALLY hope he has some insider information that I don’t know about, because right now with all the potential cheating, DJT is not going to win. He’s going to lose, and he’ll rot away in Rikers.

      1. Trump Won – Natasha Owens (Official Music Video)

        Natasha Owens

        1 year ago

        Natasha Owens is an award-winning Christian music artist who’s performed with superstars from Michael W. Smith to Toby Keith. Her new album is called “American Patriot,” and the first single is “Stand For Life.”

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkA2_nijiyE

        3:30.

    1. Real Estate
      Investors are quietly scooping up 1 in every 6 single-family homes in these cities
      By Mary K. Jacob
      Published Aug. 20, 2024, 5:11 p.m. ET

      Home prices might be breaking records, but that hasn’t stopped real estate investors from diving in headfirst, snapping up properties at a blistering pace.

      According to Redfin, investor home purchases surged 3% in the second quarter, with these savvy buyers scooping up one in every six homes on the market. In total, they shelled out a staggering $43 billion — up nearly 14% from last year.

      The hot ticket? Single-family homes.

      Investors can’t get enough, with these properties making up 69% of their purchases. But it’s not just the high-end homes they’re after — investors have been zeroing in on the lower end of the market, too, snatching up one in every four low-priced homes.

      And what’s their game plan? Many are likely holding onto these homes to cash in on the rental boom.
      …
      https://nypost.com/2024/08/20/real-estate/investors-are-quietly-scooping-up-1-in-every-6-single-family-homes/

      1. “And what’s their game plan? Many are likely holding onto these homes to cash in on the rental boom.”

        I wonder what will happen to investors who bought at the top if prices head south?

        Or is it pretty much guaranteed that real estate will always go up?

        1. 14 Cities in California To Buy Where Home Prices Are Dropping Significantly
          J. Arky
          Tue, May 21, 2024
          8 min read

          California’s unique and wide range of beauty — from mountains great for skiing, to lakes, hiking trails and bustling cities — have long attracted people to live amidst its famed golden hills. However, with those qualities often come extremely high prices.

          But while many parts of the state do remain pricey to buy a home, some cities in California are showing signs of a housing decline that might just work in a new homebuyer’s interest. Many of the cities on this list are in the northern part of the state, up where coastal fog settles into the dense redwoods the area is famed for.
          …
          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/8-places-california-where-home-190405467.html

        2. 7 Locations Where Housing Prices Are Plummeting Post-Pandemic
          May 4, 2024
          3 min Read
          Written by Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy
          Edited by T. Woods

          The COVID-19 pandemic created new migration trends, leading many Americans to leave big cities. So-called Zoom towns — named after the pandemic communication platform and symbol of that era — were cities that saw a tremendous growth due to people moving there to work remotely.

          A few years post-pandemic, though, have led to some of these previously-booming locations to see their housing prices plummet.

          “Nationally, the housing market remains overvalued, with prices exceeding their estimated fundamental value by more than 12% in February,” Matthew Walsh, Moody’s Analytics economist said in a recent report, adding however, that this is the lowest level of overvaluation since the spring of 2021. “House prices decreased in 17 states in February, and from a year ago, the strongest performance has been concentrated in the Midwest, where house prices are relatively more affordable.”

          Here are some of the cities where housing prices are decreasing.

          1. Miami, Florida

          Once a pandemic hotspot, Miami saw its housing prices skyrocket, but now prices are starting to cool down.

          The median listing home price in Miami is $635,000, according to Realtor.com, down -2.3% year-over-year.

          2. Provo, Utah

          According to Business Insider, citing Moody’s data, the projected annualized home price appreciation through August 2026 is -6.11%.

          The median listing home price in Provo is $495,000, according to Realtor.com.

          3. Lake Havasu City, Arizona

          The projected annualized home price appreciation through August 2026 is -6.15%, according to Moody’s.

          The median listing home price in Lake Havasu City is $550,000 trending up 5.9% year-over-year, yet, Moody’s placed it on its list of cities where home prices will decline the most over the next three years, according to Business Insider.

          4. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

          The median listing home price in Oklahoma is $299,000, trending down -6% year-over-year, according to Realtor.com.

          5. San Antonio, Texas

          The median listing home price in San Antonio is $300,000, according to Realtor.com.

          6. San Jose, Calif.

          The median listing home price in San Jose is $1.3 million.

          7. Pocatello, Idaho.

          The median listing home price in Pocatello is $377,400, trending down -3%, according to Realtor.com.

          The projected annualized home price appreciation through August 2026 is -7.85%, according to Business Insider, citing Moody’s data.
          …
          https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/real-estate/7-locations-where-housing-prices-are-plummeting-post-pandemic/

          1. 3. Lake Havasu City, Arizona

            The projected annualized home price appreciation through August 2026 is -6.15%, according to Moody’s.
            I was there about 2 weeks ago and they were building like crazy everywhere.

  31. A Wealth of Common Sense
    Why Housing is Everyone’s Favorite Investment
    Posted September 8, 2024 by Ben Carlson

    Each year since 2011, Gallup has asked people what they think is the best long-term investment:

    After a brief love affair with gold, real estate has been in the top spot every year since 2013. Stocks are a distant second.

    So why do we Americans love the housing market so much from an investment perspective?

    There is something about the American Dream of homeownership combined with the size of the price tag involved for sure. A house is both the biggest purchase and largest financial asset for most households.

    You could say it’s the bull market we’ve experienced since the pandemic but housing was at the top of the list for many years before the pre-Covid era.

    The strange thing is real estate recovered fairly quickly on this list following the biggest housing crash we’ve ever seen. I would have thought more people would have been scarred for a lot longer following the crash. The stock market bottomed in 2009, but housing prices kept falling well into 2012.

    A big part of it has to do with the nature of pricing in the housing market.

    It’s an illiquid asset. You can’t see the tick-by-tick changes in price like you do in the stock market. There isn’t nearly as much volatility in housing prices.

    I used Robert Shiller’s historical housing price database to calculate the annual returns on a national basis going back to 1950:

    Look at all the green on there. Housing prices rarely go down.

    By my count, there have been just seven down years for the U.S. housing market over the past 75 years. That’s losses just 9% of the time. And five of those seven years occurred after the housing bubble popped.

    The stock market has been negative on a yearly basis 22% of the time since 1950. But there have also been 32 double-digit drawdowns in that time. Ten of those 32 drawdowns have been bear markets (down 20% or worse) while there have been six outright crashes (down 30% or worse).

    The housing market has gone down a handful of times and crashed just once over the past 75 years.

    Even if housing prices were more volatile, you wouldn’t notice because it’s an illiquid asset. It’s out of sight, out of mind.

    I’m not making the case that housing is a better investment than stocks, gold, bonds, crypto or anything else.

    For certain investors, real estate can be quite lucrative. For others, it can be an albatross.

    A lot of it depends on location, timing and luck.

    Plus you have all of the ancillary costs — property taxes, insurance, maintenance, renovations, realtor fees, closing costs, moving costs, etc.

    No one actually keeps track of those costs. Plus you have to live somewhere and there is typically leverage involved so it’s nearly impossible to calculate the actual return you get from homeownership.

    Most people simply take the price they paid and subtract it from the price they sell it for or the current Zillow market value and call it good.
    …
    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/09/why-housing-is-everyones-favorite-investment/

    1. Isn’t it interesting how none of the housing market experts writing MSM articles connect the dots between the post-financial crisis housing boom and Quantitative Easing targeted on housing?

  32. Mexican Drunk Driver Runs Over Indiana Firefighters at Scene of Accident – Police

    by Dan Lyman
    September 8th 2024, 11:30 AM

    An unlicensed driver from Mexico who may be in the U.S. illegally is facing a slew of charges after authorities say he struck two firefighters at the scene of a crash on a highway in Indiana this weekend.

    The incident unfolded at around 4 a.m. on Saturday morning in Indianapolis.

    Indiana State Police arrested 30-year old Christino Rodrigo Alva of Pueblo, Mexico.

    Alva faces a number of charges, including operating while intoxicated resulting in serious bodily injury, operating while intoxicated endangering a person, operating while intoxicated with a BAC at or above .15, and operating without ever having received a license.

    Additionally, Immigration and Customs Enforcement has lodged a detainer against Alva, indicating he could be an illegal alien.

    An investigation is ongoing.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/mexican-drunk-driver-runs-over-indiana-firefighters-at-scene-of-accident-police

  33. Rebeccah Heinrichs
    @RLHeinrichs

    This is crazy. Biden and Harris have defended their decision and process for the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal. Campaign staff are not going to get Americans to buy this.

    Alex Thompson @AlexThomp
    ·
    23h

    In a new statement, Harris’ campaign argues that “Trump’s chaotic actions led to catastrophic consequences in Afghanistan.”

    Sep 7, 2024

    https://x.com/RLHeinrichs/status/1832523345478467814

    1. The stock market is stumbling on nagging fears the Fed may have made a mistake
      U.S. & Canada
      Market Extra
      Market participants are uncertain about recession and the size and scope of Fed rate cuts
      By William Watts
      Last Updated: Sept. 8, 2024 at 11:27 a.m. ET
      First Published: Sept. 7, 2024 at 9:59 a.m. ET
      Did Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell leave interest rates on hold for too long?
      Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

      September is living up to its nasty reputation as the stock market’s most troublesome month, even as the Federal Reserve prepares to finally deliver a long-awaited interest rate cut the week after next.

      What’s eating investors is that they fear, but don’t know for sure, whether the monetary easing has been a little too long-awaited.
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-suffered-a-beatdown-because-investors-suspect-a-fed-mistake-62740a75

      1. Warren Buffett Just Sold Another $3.1 Billion Worth of One of Berkshire Hathaway’s Largest Holdings. Here’s Why.
        By Adam Levy – Sep 7, 2024 at 6:01PM
        Key Points

        – Warren Buffett has sold more stock than he bought for Berkshire Hathaway in each of the last seven quarters.

        – He’s systematically taking capital gains on stocks to take advantage of lower tax rates.

        – Investors should consider the business and outlook before they follow Buffett’s lead.
        …
        https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/09/07/warren-buffett-just-sold-another-31-billion-worth/

        1. “He’s systematically taking capital gains on stocks to take advantage of lower tax rates.”

          Plus stocks are historically overvalued…

    3. Yahoo
      Bloomberg
      Stocks Fall as Payroll Data Add to Slowdown Fears: Markets Wrap
      Stocks Fall as Payroll Data Add to Slowdown Fears: Markets Wrap·Bloomberg
      Catherine Bosley and Matthew Burgess
      Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 7:50 PM PDT
      4 min read
      In this article:

      (Bloomberg) — Asia’s benchmark stock index slid to a three-week low as worse-than-expected economic data from the US to Japan added to concerns over a broader slowdown.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-set-drop-jobs-224121337.html

    4. Financial Times
      Pinned Post
      2 hours ago
      George Russell in Hong Kong
      Markets update: Asian stocks fall after mixed US jobs data

      Asian stocks fell across the board in early trading on Monday in the wake of mixed US employment figures.

      Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 1.5 per cent. The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks fell 0.5 per cent. Japan’s Topix fell 2.3 per cent, while the South Korean Kospi benchmark lost 1.3 per cent.

      US data released on Friday showed slower than expected jobs growth but also lower unemployment. The S&P 500 closed down 1.7 per cent.

      Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 benchmark fell 0.8 per cent. Yancoal added as much as 5.2 per cent after the miner said it would be added to the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300 indices from September 23.
      …

    5. Financial Times
      US economy
      Top Federal Reserve officials leave door open for large interest rate cuts if data worsens
      Comments from policymakers follow report showing US economy added fewer jobs than expected
      Progress on inflation and signs of a cooling labour market have left the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates for the first time since 2020
      Colby Smith and Harriet Clarfelt in New York September 6 2024
      …

    6. Federal Reserve
      Jumbo 50 basis points Fed rate cut should not raise alarm, analyst says
      Published Mon, Sep 9 2024 7:23 AM EDT
      Karen Gilchrist

      Key Points

      – The U.S. Federal Reserve can afford to make a jumbo 50 basis points rate cut next week without spooking markets, according to one analyst.

      – Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management, said Monday that a deeper cut would demonstrate that the central bank is ready to act without signalling deeper concerns.

      – Policymakers are widely expected to lower rates when they meet on Sept. 17-18, but the extent of the move remains unclear.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/09/fed-jumbo-50-bps-rate-cut-should-not-raise-alarm-analyst-says.html

      1. The Fed won’t ‘push the panic button’ and go for a jumbo rate cut, economist says
        Published Fri, Sep 6 2024 2:05 AM EDT
        Updated Fri, Sep 6 2024 2:16 AM EDT
        Lee Ying Shan

        WATCH LIVE
        Key Points

        – “We’re not seeing anything that I can imagine, in the data, that’s going to trigger the Fed to do what I would call a panicked 50 basis point rate cut,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

        – U.S. labor market data on Thursday offered mixed signals about the state of the economy amid concerns over the Fed having kept rated higher for longer than it was needed.
        …
        https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/the-fed-wont-go-for-a-panicked-50-basis-point-rate-cut-economist.html

        1. “Jumbo 50 basis points Fed rate cut should not raise alarm
          …
          The Fed won’t ‘push the panic button’ and go for a jumbo rate cut”

          I am deeply relieved!

        2. amid concerns over the Fed having kept rated higher for longer than it was needed

          So the only way for our fake economy to not face plant is to have tons of cheap money sloshing around and who cares about inflation? That only affects the little people.

          1. Precisely. Rates down, assets up, borrow against assets to avoid taxation. Only little people pay taxes and suffer from inflation.

  35. ‘While the positive trend exists, it is still so weak that a breath of wind could blow it over’

    Tina wrote that but she doesn’t put her name to it in the press anymore.

    ‘The Cromford Report has frequently noted that new-home sales this year have been overtaking re-sales. Last week, it said, ‘The re-sale market has been much weaker than the new home market and year-to-date closing volumes are down from 2023.’ It said re-sale closings totaled 45,937 as of June 30 – down 4% from the first six months of last year. ‘We do not often see the new home and re-sale markets so disconnected from each other’

    The way I read this they are building and selling more shacks than existing shacks.

  36. ‘new laws that require buildings to have full reserves by next year. Prices are pulling back, because nobody can afford the association fees anymore,’ …total active condo listings in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties increased from 8,497 listings in the first quarter of 2023 to 20,293 listings by the second quarter of 2024. The report notes that in the second quarter of 2024, 7,961 condos listed for sale in Miami-Dade were over 30 years old. Broward has approximately 5,166 condo listings over 30 years old, while Palm Beach has 4,669. Less than 1,000 condos across all three counties were less than 10 years old’

    Oh dear…

  37. ‘Two Dallas—Fort Worth area homes are about to be seized by feds, who claim the properties were purchased with money made through a ‘Ponzi-type’ scheme. A group was investigated for generating $138 million from clients under the guise of making a profit buying and selling international bonds’

    One would think this might make the news outside of CRE websites.

    1. Waitin’ For The Bus – Jesus Just Left Chicago , ZZ Top , 1973 Vinyl

      Toni Davey

      9 years ago

      The only single released from the album was “La Grange”., but “Waitin’ for the Bus” and “Jesus Just Left Chicago” are very popular and played as much as “La Grange”, and since those two songs segue into each other, they are usually played together.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BLof0G2sSw

      6 minutes.

      1. Awesome!

        Jesus Just Left Chicago Lyrics
        [Verse 1]

        Jesus just left Chicago
        And he’s bound for New Orleans
        Well now, Jesus just left Chicago
        And he’s bound for New Orleans, yeah
        Working from one end to the other
        And all points in between

        [Verse 2]

        Took a jog through Mississippi
        Well, muddy water turned to wine
        Took a jog through Mississippi
        Muddy water turned to wine, yeah
        Then out to California
        Through the forests and the pines
        Ah, take me with you, Jesus

        [Instrumental Break]

        [Verse 3]

        You might not see him in person
        But he’ll see you just the same
        You might not see him in person
        But he’ll see you just the same, hey
        You don’t have to worry
        Because taking care of business is his name

  39. ‘lawmakers say it’s time to crack down on one of the key factors at the root of the problem: tenants not paying their rent…‘We have issues with mold, mice, rats, roaches, and the owners becoming slumlords,’ Wright said. ‘We live here with no security. The owners say they can’t pay for security. The buildings are falling apart, and they cannot invest in anything’

    I did say when this whole thing started that guberments were going to regret telling everybody to stop paying their bills Shirley.

  40. ‘The problem for condo investors is that, between maintenance fees and mortgage rates, carrying costs leave them in the red. This is especially true for unit-owners in buildings registered no later than November 15, 2018, which are rent-controlled. ‘These people are paying interest rates in excess of six, seven per cent, and the yearly rent increase is about three per cent, but many of them struggle finding qualified renters’

    This is some horse-hockey we see a lot. Leah it’s been just like this for years and years. Nobody cared, the prices were to the moon Alice! Yer a genius for being in the red every month. Multiple units made you even more geniuser.

    ‘Zlatkin points to research from the Canadian Housing Statistics Program indicating 43 per cent of Toronto condos are investor owned…Families comprise a growing share of the rental pool, but Zlatkin added most inventory on the secondary rental market is insufficiently sized. ‘[Families] can’t fit into these 400-, 500-, 600-sq. ft condos when it’s two adults and kids,’ she continued. ‘And the people who can afford to buy these units need more room than a condo offers them’

    Again, all this was known. When the boom was red hotcakes, what were they saying? These will be entry level airboxes. You’ll suffer there 2 maybe 3 years sell, rake in that sweet equity and move to something that doesn’t drive you bat sh$t crazy cuz it’s too dam small! And now prices are going down and nobody is buying it. It was bogus all along.

    1. Opinion
      Jonathan Levin, Columnist
      Stock-Selloff Fears for September Are Overblown

      Just because the historical data exhibits some seasonal softness doesn’t mean it will continue into the future.
      September 9, 2024 at 2:30 AM PDT
      By Jonathan Levin
      Jonathan Levin is a columnist focused on US markets and economics. Previously, he worked as a Bloomberg journalist in the US, Brazil and Mexico. He is a CFA charterholder.

      Seeing red.Photographer: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images North America

      The US stock market has given us plenty of real and perceived calendar anomalies to think about. There’s the observed tendency for stocks to experience a “Santa Claus rally” (during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the next) and the weekend effect (where stocks have a habit of slumping on Mondays). Yet perhaps no period is as feared as September. Famously, it’s the month in which the South Sea Bubble burst in 1720, stocks collapsed as Britain left the gold standard in 1931 and the S&P 500 Index tanked in 2008 on news of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

      There’s no question that there’s something to the September anomaly. But beyond the most extreme anecdotes, the question is whether it should matter to the 99.9% of us not running quantitative hedge funds fine-tuned to exploit market quirks and inefficiencies. I’d say probably not.

      Of the past 50 Septembers, the S&P 500 has fallen 28 times (56%) — just a little worse than a coin flip. Granted, the market has only fallen 38% of the time in the other 11 months of the year, but early autumn has given investors plenty of reasons to stay invested as well. Key recent examples include September 2010 (+8.8%, the best month of that year) and the very respectable Septembers of 2012, 2013, 2017 and 2019. And many of the very worst September routs — not counting 2008 — were followed by large bounces in October. Market participants try to outsmart the calendar at their own peril.

      September Blues

      In general, the 50-year average performance in September (-1.2%) is a lot worse than the median (-0.5%), a sign that our data is affected by a few outlier episodes. Indeed, many of the worst Septembers came when we were already clearly in a bear market, which we’re not today. September 1974 comes to mind, as do the Septembers of 2002, 2008 and 2022. Rare are the September 2000-like examples of markets that were cruising along near all-time highs when September came along and sent stocks careening. If you can tell me where the market is heading overall, I’ll tell you how September will play out — but good luck with that!

      In an efficient market framework, empirical regularities and market “rules of thumb” are generally thought to disappear once everyone knows about them. Yet calendar anomalies have persisted and been on the market’s radar for at least eight decades, dating back to Sidney B. Wachtel’s 1942 paper “Certain Observations on Seasonal Movements in Stock Prices.” But the effects seem to wax and wane over time, and I’ve yet to encounter a tidy and incontrovertible explanation for why they should persist indefinitely.

      One popular theory for the September effect is that investors tend to sell stocks to participate in the flurry of bond offerings that usually come at that time of year. On average over the past decade, the first week of September (week 36) has been the single biggest week of the year, and the next week isn’t far behind. In 2024, September is once again off to a noteworthy start, with a record number of blue-chip firms hitting the market on Tuesday, including Ford Motor Credit Co. and Target Corp. Bloomberg’s Michael Gambale has reported that companies may sell $125 billion of US high-grade bonds this month, according to an informal survey. Still, September isn’t that unique from other heavy-issuance months, so it couldn’t single-handedly explain the seasonal effect.

      Others have argued that the September effect stems from our summer vacation schedules. Under that theory, one may believe that bad news and rumors percolate through the market more slowly when everyone’s at the beach. Once traders return to their desks, they may feel overwhelmed by the onslaught of negative developments they learn about around the proverbial “water cooler” and rush to update their priors.

      In their paper “Inattention as a Limit to Arbitrage: Evidence from School Holidays,” Lily Fang, Melissa Lin and Yuping Shao document a version of the effect around the world after different countries’ respective school breaks. But if it’s our July-August inattention to negative rumors that’s historically made the arrival of September feel so abrupt and violent, why should we expect the effect to continue in the age of social media? I know plenty of folks today who spend more time gossiping on X and other platforms when they’re on vacation — not less.
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-09/stock-selloff-fears-for-september-are-overblown?srnd=phx-economics-v2

    2. Market Extra
      September is historically the worst month for U.S. stocks. What investors need to know.
      Why hedging against September seasonality is likely to cost more than it saves, says one portfolio manager
      By Isabel Wang
      Published: Sept. 3, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. ET
      If the past is any guide, seasonal weakness in September could spoil the stock market’s momentum.
      Photo: MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto
      Referenced Symbols
      SPX -1.73%
      DJIA -1.01%
      COMP -2.55%
      VIX -6.61%

      The U.S. stock market finished a turbulent month on a positive note after recovering from a bout of heavy selling on Aug. 5 that plunged Wall Street to its worst day in nearly two years.

      But if the past is any guide, seasonal weakness in September could spoil the momentum via a heightened level of volatility in the financial markets.
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/september-is-historically-the-worst-month-for-u-s-stocks-what-investors-need-to-know-4b5fd927

  42. Europe’s heading for a recession as the U.S. consumer buckles, strategist warns
    Published: Sept. 9, 2024 at 4:48 a.m. ET
    By Steve Goldstein

    Europe is heading into a recession as the U.S. consumer buckles, a strategist warned, advising investors to shift into defensive stocks.
    …
    https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/europes-heading-for-a-recession-as-the-u-s-consumer-buckles-strategist-warns-3906b4c3

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